So one thing that, on paper, doesn't make sense is why Max Aaron doesn't get as much TES relative to the top 2 US men at the moment despite landing 2 quads (and Jason landing an under-rotated one and Adam falling on a fully rotated one) in their respective free skates.
TL;DR: : Max needs to back load his program more, get the levels on his non-jump elements and get more +GOE especially on his quads.
For those of you who want the analysis, read on:
Here's the TES for Max, Jason Brown and Adam Rippon (from Rostelecom for Max and Skate America for Jason and Adam):
Jason: 92.61
Adam: 89.25
Max: 85.18.
Let's look at BV:
Jason 81.14
Adam: 81.75
Max: 80.10.
Now consider the fact that Max, on paper, already is at a point disadvantage just on BV alone. How come? Let's look at a few things:
1.) Jumps. Here's the highest three jump passes in BV and their point value:
Max: 4S-2T, 4S and his 3Z-1L-3S. Total BV: 34.29
Jason: 3A-2T, 3F-3T and 3Z-1L-3S BV: 32.35
Adam: 4T, 3A-2T, 3Z-2T-2Lo BV: 31.09
We'll note GOE in a later segment.
2.) Spin/step levels. At Rostelecom Cup, Max did not get a single level 4 element. His BV for spins and steps was 13.2 Adam Rippon had 2 level 3 and 2 level 4 elements (BV: 14.8) Jason only had one level 3 spin -- he got level 4 on everything else, including the Stsq, which is key because not only BV, but its eligible for more GOE (again more on that later). Base value: 15.6.
3.) Backloading. Jasonis doing doing a 2-6 layout , Adam is doing a 3-5 and Max is doing a 4-4. Not only that Max is opting to put two of his big money combinations in the front, which Jason has two of his big money combos in the second half. Adam also put both his 3As in the second half which also helps his BV.
So let's look at front loading BV.
Max: 37.2
Adam: 24.3
Jason: 17.8
Back loading BV (10 percent bonus in BV)
Jason: 47.74
Adam: 42.35
Max: 29.7
4.) Max doesn't do a flip. Now it's a whole discussion, whether it's worth his while whether to include a flip or not. However, it does limit the options for his jumping passes. With 1 quad and 5 triples = 2 quads and 6 triples. Jason and Adam are doing 1 quad and 6 triples = 1 quad and 8 triples.
Max could do two 2As with a 3-3 and 3Z-1L-3S combo. He decides instead to do a 2A, a 3T and the 3Z-1L-3S combo. And for BV you can see why--obviously a 3T (4.3) is worth more than a second 2A (3.3) . However, I do wonder if he actually intends to do a 4T-3T in the beginning -- any advantage a 3T vs. 2A is nearly eroaded because you get +GOE on the table (+3.00 vs. 2.1 for doing a good 3T later on). Maybe he plans 4S-3T and 2A but puts in the 3T when he pops the second jump.
5.) Level calling. There's an argument that Adam should have a UR in his quad. Jason would have had an even greater gap between him and the other two had they ratified his quad, not to mention the odd (!) call on his 3F (he's a known former flutzer, and the flip is usually his money jump). In any case, Adam benefits from the generous call for his call and basically Jason's odd calls.
Total jump BV:
Max: 66.90
Adam: 66.65
Jason: 65.54
Grade of Execution:
Overall GOE
Jason: 11.47
Adam: 7.5
Max: 5.08
GOE on jumps
Jason: 4.57
Max: 3.22
Adam: 2.22
GOE on steps/spins
Jason: 6.9
Adam: 5.28
Max: 1.86
Highest three scored elements (with +GOE)
Jason: 3Z-1L-3S (13.19; 1.2 GOE) 3A-2T (11.37, 1.57 GOE) and 3F-3T (10.46 -.1 GOE)
Adam: 3A-2T (12.21 (1.43 GOE), 3A (10.64, 1.29 GOE) and 3F-3T (10.50, .9 GOE)
Max: 3Z-1L-3S (12.99; 1.0 GOE), 4S-2T (11.94, .14 GOE) and 3A (11.21, 1.86 GOE)
Conclusions
1. Basically any advantage Max had doing two quads is eroded due 1.) not doing a flip 2.) not backloading his programs and 3.) not getting levels on step and spins (the same goes for Adam relative to Jason)
2.) Not getting high GOE on his jumps. Max's 3A is outstanding, the best out of the three US men. But outside of that the only element he gets a full point in GOE is his 3Z-1L-3S. On the other extreme. Jason got 1.5+ on four out of 13 elements and 1.0+ on four more elements, so 1.0 or higher on eight out 13 elements total. Adam got 1.5 or more points on 2 elements and 1.0 or more on 4 elements, so 1.0 or higher on six out of 13 elements.
3). Judging panel -- This isn't a perfect comparison because Adam and Jason were under one judging panel and Max was under another. Also home advantage and audience response can influence things, usually subconsciously. So let's put that out there.