2016-2017 State of U.S. Men Figure Skating

[StitchMonkey]

Actually, it seems to me the highest PCS among all current US men has Chen, if we are not counting Brown´s inflated score from Skate America plus this is an international competition where they both were:

http://www.isuresults.com/results/season1617/fc2017/SEG002.HTM

Actually, it would still be Brown.

89.14 at WTT in 2015
http://www.isuresults.com/results/wtt2015/wtt2015_Men_FS_M_Scores.pdf

Since Nathan was not at that WTT... let's look at it a different way.

Jason was 4.22 less than Hanyu.
Nathan was 5.45 less than Hanyu.

Good for both of them for their PCS though!

 

[Eislauf]

My point was simply that Jason is quite able to achieve TES of 88-92, which is not low TES. It's only low compared to guys successfully doing 4-5 quads.

And that's the problem. The new norm in the mens' FS is exactly that: 4-5 quads. Nathan, Yuzu, Boyang, Shoma, Javi etc.

And the latest crop of new senior teenage skaters (Zhou, Torgashev etc) are going to get there pronto.

What's more, Jason's TES is still low compared to last year's norm of doing 2-3 quads in the FS.

A year ago, there were no quad loops or quad flips. Now we have everything except the 4A, which will probably show up this fall. Not every skater can keep up.

 

[Tavi...]

And that's the problem. The new norm in the mens' FS is exactly that: 4-5 quads. Nathan, Yuzu, Boyang, Shoma, Javi etc.

And the latest crop of new senior teenage skaters (Zhou, Torgashev etc) are going to get there pronto.

What's more, Jason's TES is still low compared to last year's norm of doing 2-3 quads in the FS.

A year ago, there were no quad loops or quad flips. Now we have everything except the 4A, which will probably show up this fall. Not every skater can keep up.

As Ive said before, neither Jason, his team, nor his fans dispute that he's at a big disadvantage without even one solid quad yet. You and many others have expressed the opinion that it's too late and he'll never catch up. You may be right - I don't have a crystal cell. But until he retires, where he ends up technically is open to question.

However, I do want to point out a couple of things. First, both last year and this season, even the top guys with many quads have scored far less than their best. They don't all do 4-5 quads yet, and even if they do, they don't always land them. So they're not always scoring 103-116 points in TES - only sometimes. It's true that their lowest scores are usually at the beginning of the season, and that most likely at Worlds they will be scoring at the higher end. But it's not guaranteed. As you know, at the GPF, Hanyu, Fernandez and Chan had TES of 96, 86, and 80, respectively. Here, Shoma's TES was 99, Patrick's was 89, and Boyang's was 100.

You might think those lower TES scores are still mostly still out of range for Jason. But actually, at Skate America, before his quad was called < (he also lost a spin level) his TES was 98+. With one quad. Now you can say that score is inflated, but frankly, many comps have inflated scores for the top few skaters, it's not just Jason at SA.

My point is that for Jason, with two quads - he's training two - he may still be competitive in certain circumstances. And he may not. But at this point, I don't think it's any use worrying about what's going to happen. That's especially true because we don't know if ISU rules will change after the Olympics

 

[ice coverage]

Another thought about the consequences of the USFS choice for the World team:

It gives Jason a chance to increase his funding from USFS for next season.

As of now, both Jason and Vincent have earned USFS funding at the level of Envelope B, Tier 1 -- by meeting the criterion of placing second thru fourth at Nats.

If Jason places fourth thru tenth at Senior Worlds, his funding will increase to Envelope A, Tier 2.

Meanwhile, Vincent has no possibility of increasing his funding.
He will remain in Envelope B, Tier 1 -- even if he can meet the criteria of Junior World champion combined with placement in the top eight Seniors at Nats.

http://usfigureskating.org/story?id=84105&menu=TeamUSA​

Again, I am just pointing out another ripple effect for next season of the USFS decision.

Not saying that the decision should be changed.
I think USFS would not have been worried about Vincent's ability to earn the Senior Worlds minimums, and still chose Jason.

---

Everyone has their preferences. That is what makes watching U.S. men somewhat heartbreaking. It's probable that one of your favorites will be left out. ...

:agree: :sad4:

... Upcoming:

... 2 men (Jason and Nathan, likely, but who knows) at World Team Trophy (April 20-23)

Only my meaningless speculation, but ...

Given that Nathan no doubt wants to give himself the best possible chance of doing well at the Olympics, I wonder whether he will want to add WTT to his plate??

It would be his first WTT, and he seems like the type who would really embrace and enjoy the camaraderie of the event. Plus the prize money is good.

But he will be performing in six SOI shows over three weeks in May.
And his season started with Golden West in Sep ... followed by Finlandia in Oct ... then two GPs in Nov ... the GPF in Dec ... Nats in Jan ... Four Continents in Feb ... Worlds in March. He has trained in California, Michigan, Colorado; performed in shows in Sun Valley and at Harvard; took a trip to Waterloo, Ontario, for the sake of his skates. And who knows what else???
[Plus the first USOC media summit in advance of the 2018 Games probably will be in April (although the 2013 edition was in West Hollywood, which at least would be geographically convenient for Nathan).]

I'm wondering whether even a young Energizer bunny like Nathan might need/want to catch his breath a little -- esp. on the verge of the big final push toward 2018???

---

just popping here to admit that I missed so many US men at 4CC, wish they would all be allowed to compete - Adam with his attitude, Sean with his Latin show FS, Max with that fresh Matador-themed SP, Ross with his elegance...I'm just in awe over all this goodness in US men field to appreciate. And there is Joshua returning!!!

:agree:

---

Jackson Ultima just started an interview series on Medium .

The first batch: Sebastien Payannet, Jimmy Ma, Camden Pulkinen.

https://medium.com/@JacksonUltima​

Weekly updates are promised.

https://www.facebook.com/jacksonult...61249121436/10154217392786437/?type=3&theater​

 

[StitchMonkey]

Only my meaningless speculation, but ...

Given that Nathan no doubt wants to give himself the best possible chance of doing well at the Olympics, I wonder whether he will want to add WTT to his plate??

It would be his first WTT, and he seems like the type who would really embrace and enjoy the camaraderie of the event. Plus the prize money is good.

As i recall the selection for WTT is a bit weird and it sorta spells out who is supposed to go. Pretty sure the top guy at worlds has to go or can't do shows for some period of time. Frankly the ISU has made it hard for skaters to skip this one, because the skaters don't always like this one. So it is odd. Nathan might basically be obligated to attend - sorta like attending the GPF if you make it.

Then again, injury is an excuse... and somehow i think most skaters always have some kind of injury.

 

[Mrs. P]

Only my meaningless speculation, but ...

Given that Nathan no doubt wants to give himself the best possible chance of doing well at the Olympics, I wonder whether he will want to add WTT to his plate??

It would be his first WTT, and he seems like the type who would really embrace and enjoy the camaraderie of the event. Plus the prize money is good.

But he will be performing in six SOI shows over three weeks in May.
And his season started with Golden West in Sep ... followed by Finlandia in Oct ... then two GPs in Nov ... the GPF in Dec ... Nats in Jan ... Four Continents in Feb ... Worlds in March. He has trained in California, Michigan, Colorado; performed in shows in Sun Valley and at Harvard; took a trip to Waterloo, Ontario, for the sake of his skates. And who knows what else???
[Plus the first USOC media summit in advance of the 2018 Games probably will be in April (although the 2013 edition was in West Hollywood, which at least would be geographically convenient for Nathan).]

I'm wondering whether even a young Energizer bunny like Nathan might need/want to catch his breath a little -- esp. on the verge of the big final push toward 2018???

I was thinking of that also, especially the SOI dates. And there is a provision that if you skip WTT for whatever reason you can't do any shows until the competition ends, which could explain why he isn't going to the first SOI date in Florida. It's either cause he's going to WTT or he can't do it if he opts to skip it.

I don't see Jason skipping it. He said at the end of last season that he wanted to do WTT. But who knows-- maybe the injury and all the stuff that's come up might have changed the time table. But it's also good money. Good enough money where you can refuse to do shows and focus on Olympic training.

 

[Tavi...]

As i recall the selection for WTT is a bit weird and it sorta spells out who is supposed to go. Pretty sure the top guy at worlds has to go or can't do shows for some period of time. Frankly the ISU has made it hard for skaters to skip this one, because the skaters don't always like this one. So it is odd. Nathan might basically be obligated to attend - sorta like attending the GPF if you make it.

Then again, injury is an excuse... and somehow i think most skaters always have some kind of injury.

Maybe Adam will go. He's currently still the highest ranked US man. Jason could decline to work on quads and new programs. Maybe they'll send Vincent and Josh.

 

[StitchMonkey]

Maybe Adam will go. He's currently still the highest ranked US man. Jason could decline to work on quads and new programs. Maybe they'll send Vincent and Josh.

I don't think Josh is an option.

I *think* last time it was the top skater at worlds, and one of the next two highest ranked for either the season or overall. I recall debate about it the were using world ranking or season standings as they mixed and matched the wording. It also might have been from the Grand Prix series. I think Richard Dornbush and Max Aaron were the two choice after Jason...people were upset at Adam not being picked, but I am not sure he was allowed as an option based on the rules. I think Richard and Max were tied on points somehow but with a slight tie breaker to Max... or at least i remember seeing that and wondering if they might actually send him (no problem with Max going - i just remember stupid little technicalities sometimes).

Adam might be an option actually rules wise, but who knows shape/recovery wise.

 

[karne]

Maybe Adam will go. He's currently still the highest ranked US man. Jason could decline to work on quads and new programs. Maybe they'll send Vincent and Josh.

Adam won't be fit in time. I can't imagine so, anyway. And I don't think it'd be a good idea to rush him back for WTT. Isn't Adam already named to SOI, anyway?

They are supposed to pick in order of WR. Max is next on the list after Nathan, Adam and Jason. If we assume that Adam won't be ready to compete by then, then Max is default the first alternate for Nathan and Jason.

 

[ice coverage]

As i recall the selection for WTT is a bit weird and it sorta spells out who is supposed to go. Pretty sure the top guy at worlds has to go or can't do shows for some period of time. Frankly the ISU has made it hard for skaters to skip this one, because the skaters don't always like this one. So it is odd. Nathan might basically be obligated to attend - sorta like attending the GPF if you make it.

Then again, injury is an excuse... and somehow i think most skaters always have some kind of injury.

Yes and No.
I know what you are saying about the ISU rules, but at the same time, there has been wiggle room in the past.

For example, Virtue/Moir and Davis/White did not take part in 2013 WTT -- without citing injury, AFAIK.

http://www.isuresults.com/results/wtt2013/TeamEntries.pdf​

---

I was thinking of that also, especially the SOI dates. And there is a provision that if you skip WTT for whatever reason you can't do any shows until the competition ends, which could explain why he isn't going to the first SOI date in Florida. It's either cause he's going to WTT or he can't do it if he opts to skip it. ...

:agree:

---

FWIW, what USFS said in 2015 (at least one version):

... U.S. skaters qualified for World Team Trophy based on results of the most recent World Championships, the ISU Grand Prix and Junior Grand Prix of Figure Skating Series and Final, the Four Continents Championships and the ISU World Standings.

http://usfigureskating.org/Story?id=61943&type=news​

If Nathan and/or Jason choose not to go to WTT, I think we'll have a big guessing game on our hands.

iirc, USFS never was specific as to how the various criteria were weighted (even putting aside the issue of world standings vs. world rankings).

---

Adam is scheduled to perform in all seven SOI shows, including the first one on Apr 13.

So he must be expecting to be healthy enough by then at least for a show performance.

 

[Tavi...]

Adam won't be fit in time. I can't imagine so, anyway. And I don't think it'd be a good idea to rush him back for WTT. Isn't Adam already named to SOI, anyway?

They are supposed to pick in order of WR. Max is next on the list after Nathan, Adam and Jason. If we assume that Adam won't be ready to compete by then, then Max is default the first alternate for Nathan and Jason.

Yes actually Adam is scheduled for SOI between April 13 and May 21, but he's not doing any shows between April 13 and May 4. It looks like Ashley has the same schedule. WTT is from 4/20 to 4/23. So technically he could fit it in. Whether being in shape for SOI means competitive shape, I don't know.

 

[Mrs. P]

LOL, the only silver lining for Jason not placing top 10 is that he wouldn't have to do WTT If he didn't want to. Wait is that too sensitive of a subject?

 

[Eislauf]

It'll be interesting to see which US men the USFSA sends to Skate America this Fall. Nathan is a given.

But will the 2nd be Vincent, Adam or Jason? Jason has long benefitted from having been (until Nathan) the USFSA's golden boy by getting an SA assignment for the last 3 years. But if Vincent or Adam is chosen, it might be a sign that USFSA wants to beef up their int'l rep's and scoring in preparation for a possible spot on the Olympic team.

 

[el henry]

LOL, the only silver lining for Jason not placing top 10 is that he wouldn't have to do WTT If he didn't want to. Wait is that too sensitive of a subject?

Cause every single guy is gonna land every single quad.

Actually, I think Jason would love to do WTT. Didn't he say in one of his interviews (I can't remember which one), when asked about his proudest moment, he said WTT or TCC or one of those team events? Not because of his own scores, but because all the skaters from the other countries crowded into the KnC with him to wait for his scores, and when he turned around and saw everyone, he was so touched.

And *I* was so impressed that instead of some "me me me" and "points points points" or "jumps jumps jumps" answer, he made it about relationships with other skaters.:2thumbs:

 

[el henry]

It'll be interesting to see which US men the USFSA sends to Skate America this Fall. Nathan is a given.

But will the 2nd be Vincent, Adam or Jason? Jason has long benefitted from having been (until Nathan) the USFSA's golden boy by getting an SA assignment for the last 3 years. But if Vincent or Adam is chosen, it might be a sign that USFSA wants to beef up their int'l rep's and scoring in preparation for a possible spot on the Olympic team.

And he was chosen for SA with excellent reason, having earned the status as USA's number one man with his Nats, Olympics and Worlds results prior to his 2015 injury ("golden boy" sounds as though he didn't earn that number one placement, and I'm sure you didn't mean that).

Since he placed third skating while injured this year, and has yet to skate at Worlds, we will need to see what happens.

 

[Tavi...]

It'll be interesting to see which US men the USFSA sends to Skate America this Fall. Nathan is a given.

But will the 2nd be Vincent, Adam or Jason? Jason has long benefitted from having been (until Nathan) the USFSA's golden boy by getting an SA assignment for the last 3 years. But if Vincent or Adam is chosen, it might be a sign that USFSA wants to beef up their int'l rep's and scoring in preparation for a possible spot on the Olympic team.

I doubt Jason will go this year. It's not in Chicago, he's not Champion, he's been like 4 years in a row. He is almost certainly guaranteed two GP assignments. My guess: Nathan, Josh Farris, Vincent.

 

[StitchMonkey]

It'll be interesting to see which US men the USFSA sends to Skate America this Fall. Nathan is a given.

But will the 2nd be Vincent, Adam or Jason? Jason has long benefitted from having been (until Nathan) the USFSA's golden boy by getting an SA assignment for the last 3 years. But if Vincent or Adam is chosen, it might be a sign that USFSA wants to beef up their int'l rep's and scoring in preparation for a possible spot on the Olympic team.

When the new order was announced Jason made some comments that indicated he expects to be there. I am not sure Jason seems the type to make assumptions like that so i wonder if things have already been discussed.

My early tin foil hat guess is Nathan, Jason (unless in same seed group.... no a 4th and 6th is not that insane) and Sean Rabbit. Sean was 8th at nationals. The guys above him likely will get GP spots, and USFSA seems to give the SA TBA to the highest ranked nationals skater without a spot/two spots. I think they might give Sean some love. We know he would give the crowd a great time, he is popular in Japan, and Japan is popular at Skate America. I think he might get the spot.

 

[TontoK]

And that's the problem. The new norm in the mens' FS is exactly that: 4-5 quads. Nathan, Yuzu, Boyang, Shoma, Javi etc.

And the latest crop of new senior teenage skaters (Zhou, Torgashev etc) are going to get there pronto.

What's more, Jason's TES is still low compared to last year's norm of doing 2-3 quads in the FS.

A year ago, there were no quad loops or quad flips. Now we have everything except the 4A, which will probably show up this fall. Not every skater can keep up.

I agree with you on the first part of this discussion, but to avoid further firestorm, let's let that go.

However, the 4A would be a shocker. The sport has advanced quickly, but that is really quick.

Don Jackson did the first 3Z in competition in 1962. It took 16 more years (1978) for the first 3A (Vern Taylor).

Brandon Mroz did the first 4Z in 2011. Assuming a similar technical progression, the 4A isn't due until 2027.

Personally, I think we're more likely to see 4-4 combinations. I know some are playing with back-end quad combos in practice and showboating.

These guys aren't just eeking out quads any longer. They're getting good landing edges with flow and speed out of them. I think a back-end quad is very doable.

Edit: Dates of those first jumps in competition come from Wikipedia. Since I read it on the internet, it must be true.

 

[karne]

Jason has long benefitted from having been (until Nathan) the USFSA's golden boy by getting an SA assignment for the last 3 years. But if Vincent or Adam is chosen, it might be a sign that USFSA wants to beef up their int'l rep's and scoring in preparation for a possible spot on the Olympic team.

Adam was chosen last year?

Jason has been chosen for SkAm three times (we don't count SkAm 2013, where he was a sub). On two of those occasions - 2014 and 2016 - SkAm was held in Chicago, Jason's home town, and on both occasions, his presence directly boosted ticket sales. In 2014 he also had the added "value" of being an Olympian and the star of a video that had gone viral, meaning his "casual-fan" draw was huge.

In 2015, he was the reigning National champion, and in the last few years, the USFS has traditionally chosen their champion for SkAm (Max, Adam and Jason were all chosen for SkAm in this vein). I don't think USFS has given Jason "special treatment" with SkAm, I think they've been looking out for their bottom line.

As for SkAm this year, Nathan will go for sure. The host pick will assuredly be looked at for Josh, or someone like Alexander Johnson. The third place is up in the air but Ross might get it, or Grant.

 

[noskates]

I kind of think Josh is going to have to prove himself again. That may be in lesser competitions, he may have to come up through regionals, etc. I would be very surprised if Josh got a Grand Prix assignment this year.

I'm just glad he's back in competition and I hope he's totally healed.