2016-17 State of Japanese Ladies Skating

[kalee]

Or even Mao? Any news about her knee?

 

[frida80]

I will never forgive JSF if Satako gets injured and has to miss her Olympic season. Never. She has been the anchor for japan for this quad. Every news report makes me feel more nervous. She should not be competing while still in pain.

 

[hippomoomin]

I think both Wakaba and Mai are pretty strong, especially Mai. Wakaba has all the potentials but has not delivered. The two are probably still better than Ashley + Karen/Mariah

Doesn't certain pain medicine fall within the banned drug category?

 

[bobbob]

Tough situation...it is practically impossible to retain 3 spots if Satoko doesn't go, but if she does there is the risk of injury and plus if she is injured she may not do that well, though she is still in the mix. Not a fun decision to make...just leave it up to her.

 

[breadstal]

Honestly, Mai+Wakaba for sure can do well but won't get 3 spots for Olympics. Only Satoko can and obviously Mao but not in her current form. Even so, if it's that bad that it can cause long-term injury and problems, she shoudn't go.

 

[Mirunna]

Mie Hamada is saying things as they are: "Satoko is far from perfect"
https://headlines.yahoo.co.jp/hl?a=20170316-00000027-spnannex-spo

While JSF is comfortably stating that Satoko is the type of kid who can put up with pain (therefore it's okay to sacrifice her as long as they get 3 spots), Mie Hamada says she's ready to pull her out of Worlds if her condition gets worse.

Satoko is practicing while taking pain relief medication. Her team is carefully thinking about the consequences in the long run. Satoko's withdrawal increases the chances of Japan losing one spot but at the same time they had nobody to replace her with. Rika Hongo is also injured and exhaused from all the competitions she's been sent to and Kanako Murakami is not reliable. In case they do lose a spot, I believe it's JSF's failure.

Since Satoko is JSF's only real chance of an Olympic medal in ladies, it would be stupid to force her. Better have 2 spots and one to go to Satoko than have three but Satoko out with injury. Just IMO.
They should assess quickly their other options. Maybe Kaori if she does well at Jr Nationals. Or a watered down Mao if she is healthy?
Who are currently the alternates?

 

[Marius]

Honestly, Mai+Wakaba for sure can do well but won't get 3 spots for Olympics. Only Satoko can and obviously Mao but not in her current form. Even so, if it's that bad that it can cause long-term injury and problems, she shoudn't go.

Well, i don't think 3 spots are unreachable. This season practically every athlete but Medvedeva, Pogorilaya and Satoko (and maybe Caro) had highs and lows, so it's really unpredictable. A 6th+7th place is not impossible.

 

[YesWay]

Since Satoko is JSF's only real chance of an Olympic medal in ladies,

If nothing changed between now and the Olympics, then yes Satoko would be JSF's only chance of medal.

But a lot can happen in a year...

 

[Li'Kitsu]

Well, i don't think 3 spots are unreachable. This season practically every athlete but Medvedeva, Pogorilaya and Satoko (and maybe Caro) had highs and lows, so it's really unpredictable. A 6th+7th place is not impossible.

That's what I would say too. Mai is just coming off a 4CC win and is generally pretty consistent. The question mark IMO is Wakabas injury she had to deal with at 4CC - if she is still struggling with that, then that would be a problem. If she recovered well enough, she can definitely post a good top 10 finish. But overall, while it's an uphill battle, I think Mai + Wakaba have a shot to keep that 3rd spot.
And if Satoko is still in pain, no matter how consistent she usually is, I don't think it would be fair to expect her to skate well at worlds either. I'm not sure if Mai and Wakaba are really that much more of a question mark than an injured Satoko that it would be worth the risk of eggravating her injury further (this isn't meant to discredit Satoko, who is usually very consistent and reliable - I just think injuries like that can have a really bad impact on a skater, no matter how tough they are). And I agree with the people saying Satoko should put her health first, and the 3rd spot is secondary to that. Hopefully she will be fine no matter what decision they make regarding WC.

That said, regarding next year - I'm surprised people think Satoko will definitely be the only medal hope Japan has. What about all the Marin hype? And I think further improving Mai and Wakaba might be real surprises too, and Mao is still there and came back from slumps before... of course none of that is set in stone, while we know what Satoko can do for sure, but a lot can change in a year in FS. So I wouldn't be surprised if Satoko would really want to compete at WC to keep that 3rd spot because, while definitely not likely, it isn't 100% impossible either that it might be "hers".

 

[solani]

Mie Hamada is saying things as they are: "Satoko is far from perfect"
https://headlines.yahoo.co.jp/hl?a=20170316-00000027-spnannex-spo

While JSF is comfortably stating that Satoko is the type of kid who can put up with pain (therefore it's okay to sacrifice her as long as they get 3 spots), Mie Hamada says she's ready to pull her out of Worlds if her condition gets worse.

Satoko is practicing while taking pain relief medication. Her team is carefully thinking about the consequences in the long run. Satoko's withdrawal increases the chances of Japan losing one spot but at the same time they had nobody to replace her with. Rika Hongo is also injured and exhaused from all the competitions she's been sent to and Kanako Murakami is not reliable. In case they do lose a spot, I believe it's JSF's failure.

I feel really sad for her. She should not be practicing while she's still in pain. Painkillers are no solution for the kind of injury she has. This could ruin her career. Everyone here knows that I'm not a big fan of her toe jumps but she really doesn't deserve to be sacrificed like that. She could probably finish in the top ten without a triple toe, but not without a triple lutz. We don't know what caused this injury in the first place but if the toeloop is causing her pain probably her toeloop technique is a factor. She needs the right nutrition and adequate rest to heal. A hip stress fracture is a very serious injury. A third spot at the Olympics isn't worth sacrificing Satoko.

 

[ioanna]

Considering JSF's way of dealing with things, I don't think they are relying on Satoko to get an Olympic medal. She's seen as a transitional skater so they're encouraging her to compete at Worlds and get those spots, regardless of her condition. Next season Marin is turning senior, Mao may come back in a better condition and it's basically Satoko's job to facilitate her team mates' chances of going to the Olympics. They wouldn't mind if they pushed her into early retirement, I've seen questionable things happening before.

 

[ioanna]

We don't know what caused this injury in the first place but if the toeloop is causing her pain probably her toeloop technique is a factor.

Oda mentioned the injury is the result of overtraining to correct her toeloop technique.

 

[Bluediamonds09]

Thinking about Marin Honda and her chances at jr worlds this week.........now, don't get me wrong. I adore Marin. Best of all the juniors. And she should be getting THE highest PCS. But, so many people are predicting she'll win or medal at jr worlds and I just don't see it. If she skates clean I say she should win the whole thing. She's just that good! But I doubt we'll see that, unfortunately. I am predicting maybe top 5 but it's difficult to say.
Is she suffering from all the expectations?
I've seen Marin do a triple lutz-triple loop in practice. Amazing I'm so worried she won't do well.

 

[Mirunna]

That said, regarding next year - I'm surprised people think Satoko will definitely be the only medal hope Japan has. What about all the Marin hype? And I think further improving Mai and Wakaba might be real surprises too, and Mao is still there and came back from slumps before... of course none of that is set in stone, while we know what Satoko can do for sure, but a lot can change in a year in FS. So I wouldn't be surprised if Satoko would really want to compete at WC to keep that 3rd spot because, while definitely not likely, it isn't 100% impossible either that it might be "hers".

Well, the federation only know the present - and in the present, Satoko appears to be their only hope for a medal. And they must base their decision to push Satoko or not in the course of the following days/weeks based on the current facts, not what may be in the future. Marin has amazing potential but is very inconsistent even as a junior. Plus, I doubt her PCS will be high enough by the times the Olympic will come. Mai is as reliable as can be, though she will skate for the first time at Sr Worlds, while Wakaba struggles with injuries/inconsistencies. Since it takes two to tango, both girls should be clean/almost clean in order to get 3 spots. Mao is the true dark horse here, but injuries and age play against her chances, though time will tell. I do agree that Satoko's Olympic team place is not set in stone, but it is very likely. If her injury may get worse by continuing skating, her best chances are to take time off, let herself heal, and do what she does best because even with 2 spots she will most likely get one of them. Just IMHO.

 

[solani]

Considering JSF's way of dealing with things, I don't think they are relying on Satoko to get an Olympic medal. She's seen as a transitional skater so they're encouraging her to compete at Worlds and get those spots, regardless of her condition. Next season Marin is turning senior, Mao may come back in a better condition and it's basically Satoko's job to facilitate her team mates' chances of going to the Olympics. They wouldn't mind if they pushed her into early retirement, I've seen questionable things happening before.

Satoko probably thinks about her own chances of going to the Olympics as well. I hope she'll make the best decision for herself, she has to deal with the consequences after all - whether it's improving her chances of going to the Olympics or risking her own health in the process. Life can be tough ...
But I think that even if Japan would have only two spots her chances of going would be good if she's fit. Probably another skater will be considered to be Japan's no. 1 at that point but Satoko is very reliable and that's always in her favour. Plus she obviously has a decent fanbase.

Oda mentioned the injury is the result of overtraining to correct her toeloop technique.

Thanks, that's good to know. And a case where hard work doesn't pay off, at least not in the short term.

 

[ioanna]

Satoko probably thinks about her own chances of going to the Olympics as well. I hope she'll make the best decision for herself, she has to deal with the consequences after all - whether it's improving her chances of going to the Olympics or risking her own health in the process. Life can be tough ...

Four years ago she wanted to compete in Sochi; and she was better than Kanako Murakami in the Olympic GP season. But she was just 15 years old, people and media kept complaining about her height and packaging (she was 145 cm then, now she's 150 cm) and she had very small chances of being chosen over one of Mao, Akiko or Kanako. She lost the opportunity then so I really hope she will think about the Olympics and not about risking her career to save Japan's 3 spots.

 

[FlattFan]

Four years ago she wanted to compete in Sochi; and she was better than Kanako Murakami in the Olympic GP season. But she was just 15 years old, people and media kept complaining about her height and packaging (she was 145 cm then, now she's 150 cm) and she had very small chances of being chosen over one of Mao, Akiko or Kanako. She lost the opportunity then so I really hope she will think about the Olympics and not about risking her career to save Japan's 3 spots.

4 years ago she shouldn't go over kanako. At that point, kanako was the clear choice.
Next year, Satoko should have a spot on the team even if the team has 2 spots.
Wakaba always bombs in big event. She's so inconsistent and can't be counted on.
Mai doesn't have enough mileage yet to anchor at this year world.
Next year,
If 2 spots, Marin + one of Satoko and Mai. I hope Satoko.
If 3 spots, Marin + Satoko + one of Mai, Wakaba, Mao.

 

[ioanna]

Next year,
If 2 spots, Marin + one of Satoko and Mai. I hope Satoko.
If 3 spots, Marin + Satoko + one of Mai, Wakaba, Mao.

I'd wait a bit more before betting on Marin over Satoko, Wakaba, Mai and Mao.

 

[venx]

Video from Junior Worlds - Marin draws LAST number in short program like a boss:
https://twitter.com/marin_channel/status/842326478020784129

 

[ioanna]

Fumie Suguri talked about the gravity of a hip stress fracture
http://www.excite.co.jp/News/entertainment_g/20170214/Jprime_9082.html

My rough translation

“Due to the axis of the jump, the landing or the axel, stress fractures often happen to the right hip joint. However, as in Miyahara’s case, stress fractures of the left hip joint are rare. I think the cause is the impact of the toeloop combinations on the left leg.”

When Suguri was competing, she also suffered from hip joint pain.

“Due to the overuse of the joint, even walking caused a lot of pain. It happened right before the selections for the Turin Olympics and I took 2 months off to recover. However I didn’t manage to go back to my regular condition and my hip hurt even at the Japanese Nationals.

“The hip joint supports the weight and it’s important in body movement, standing or walking. You use your joints in every day life.

“In a fracture, the bone breaks and it’s easier to stick together than a stress fracture, where they are difficult to stick as they become uneven sections and bones are peeling off.

“I don’t know her current condition but I believe this injury will be difficult to heal.”