Satoko Miyahara withdraws from 2017 Worlds

[shiroKJ]

wishing her a full recovery soon! It's a good thing her team is taking precautions. The most important thing is to make sure her injuries heal fully and be ready for next season.

This however, does not bode well for Japan's 3 spots.....:con3:

 

[moriel]

wishing her a full recovery soon! It's a good thing her team is taking precautions. The most important thing is to make sure her injuries heal fully and be ready for next season.

This however, does not bode well for Japan's 3 spots.....:con3:

3 spots is doable if several top ladies bomb.
If everybody skates their best, though.... Kinda grim.

 

[Sam-Skwantch]

This is depressing me :/

 

[andromache]

Is it realistically possible for both Japan and US to lose three spots? (I assume no, but I haven't actually thought through the placement possibilities in which this would actually happen).

I'm a little biased toward my US ladies, but man, Japan needs the spots for next season way more than the US does.

 

[MaiKatze]

Is it realistically possible for both Japan and US to lose three spots? (I assume no, but I haven't actually thought through the placement possibilities in which this would actually happen).

I'm a little biased toward my US ladies, but man, Japan needs the spots for next season way more than the US does.

It is possible. Just one scenario: Russia 1/2/3 then 4/Italy then 5/6 Canada. Then it's already over for US/Japan, because 13 is not reachable anymore.

 

[shiroKJ]

Is it realistically possible for both Japan and US to lose three spots? (I assume no, but I haven't actually thought through the placement possibilities in which this would actually happen).

I'm a little biased toward my US ladies, but man, Japan needs the spots for next season way more than the US does.

Yes it's realistically possible.

 

[andromache]

It is possible. Just one scenario: Russia 1/2/3 then 4/Italy then 5/6 Canada. Then it's already over for US/Japan, because 13 is not reachable anymore.

Well it's obviously possible, but how realistic is it that Ashley and Mai place out of top 6? That both Kaetlyn and Gabby hold it together well enough to both make top 6?

I think it's highly unlikely that both Canadians will make top 6. But they're more likely than US and Japan to get three spots now, that's for sure. Which is so darn weird and unexpected (but good for them!).

Without Satoko, Mai and Wakaba (less so Rika) are going to be under huge pressure. I hope they handle it well.

 

[Imagine]

Dang, I personally don't like her skating, but I appreciate how hard she works and how amazingly consistent she is. I may be a Rika fan and I'm stoked for her, but I feel like this may jeopardize Japan's 3rd spot...

 

[apgold]

Ah poor Satoko, hope she is able to recover soon and skate without pain in her hip. Must be incredibly frustrating since she sat out of 4CC's and the Asian Games and thought she'd be ready for Worlds.

I'm happy I got to see her skate last year in Boston and at Skate Canada. She's such a lovely presence on the ice.

 

[FlattFan]

I just hope she's back strong enough to claim that Olympic spot.

 

[moriel]

Well it's obviously possible, but how realistic is it that Ashley and Mai place out of top 6? That both Kaetlyn and Gabby hold it together well enough to both make top 6?

I think it's highly unlikely that both Canadians will make top 6. But they're more likely than US and Japan to get three spots now, that's for sure. Which is so darn weird and unexpected (but good for them!).

Without Satoko, Mai and Wakaba (less so Rika) are going to be under huge pressure. I hope they handle it well.

I think a most realistic scenario would be...
Top 4: 2x russians, canadian (lets say osmond) and Caro - in some whatever order.
Then, there will be a crazy fight for 5,6,7,8 because those ranks are the ones that give any chance for 3 spots next year.
Now, its possible that we have, in 5-8, something like: 1 russian, 1 american, 1 japanese, 1 canadian.

How likely this?
Well, i´m basic myself on top scores in 2016 now. Taking out juniors and whoever doesnt go to worlds, we have:
top4: Medvedeva, Pogorilaya, Osmond, Caro.
Then, we have (in this order): Mai, Sotskova, Daleman, Ashley.

So yeah, looks like Japan and USA losing 3 spots could be possible and not very unlikely.

 

[FlattFan]

Pogo could crash spectacularly. She's due for one.
Caro is another one.
Same with kaetlyn

 

[drivingmissdaisy]

So yeah, looks like Japan and USA losing 3 spots could be possible and not very unlikely.

Two of the JPN women have to perform much better than expected to keep three spots. One of Karen or Mariah have to outperform to keep three for USA. It will be tough, but Satoko missing Worlds does help USA a lot; since she would have likely finished ahead of all the Americans, her absence lowers the top two placements by 2 (i.e. a 6th and 8th place finish becomes 5th and 7th).

 

[MaiKatze]

Pogo could crash spectacularly. She's due for one.
Caro is another one.
Same with kaetlyn

What's that mean? Why is she due for a crash? Don't you think it's possible she overcame what held her back last year?

In my opinion it is more likely that Japan and US lose the three spots than Anna crashing.

I think the US is worse off than Japan. Mai is consistent - Satoko finished off podium at last years Worlds, too. It's better to have three healthy girls than one who is injured and could not only damage her body but also her reputation with the judges. Ashley on the other hand, as much as I like her, has problems. She didn't make the GPF and this is not Boston, so no home-ice boost. Bell and Chen didn't exactly deliver at 4CC, but that's something they have in common with the Canadians.

It's certainly more interesting to see what's happening at the lower positions than the fight for Gold. Which isn't really a fight anyway.

 

[Warwick360]

Placements of the best two skaters must add up to 13 or less... eg. 6th and 7th or better, 5th and 8th or better etc...

What if one of the skater comes first and the other is well, far beyond the 13 limit? In that case, does the country get 3 spot like in the case of Yuna at Sochi, or does it remain the same as you said?

 

[Warwick360]

...ALSO, NOOOOOO!!!!!!!!!!

I'm just realising how for granted I had taken the Japanese 3 spots.

 

[xeyra]

Well it's obviously possible, but how realistic is it that Ashley and Mai place out of top 6? That both Kaetlyn and Gabby hold it together well enough to both make top 6?

I think it's highly unlikely that both Canadians will make top 6. But they're more likely than US and Japan to get three spots now, that's for sure. Which is so darn weird and unexpected (but good for them!).

Well, we can take a look at current Season's Best scores, remove the ladies who won't be at Worlds, and we can have more or less a snapshot of the current possibilities. But they're mere possibilities.

 

[shiroKJ]

What if one of the skater comes first and the other is well, far beyond the 13 limit? In that case, does the country get 3 spot like in the case of Yuna at Sochi, or does it remain the same as you said?

If the skater is the only representative of their country and places in the top 2, they will gain 3 spots. Otherwise the total of 13 rule still applies.

 

[MaiKatze]

...ALSO, NOOOOOO!!!!!!!!!!

I'm just realising how for granted I had taken the Japanese 3 spots.

This situation would be horrible. Even with the three spots....if it's only 2 for Japan it is highly unlikely we would see Mao at the Olympics. Even with three spots it's mighty hard for her to compete in the next season, but with two it means the chances are probably zero. One might say she had her chances and she went to two Olympic Games....but it still hurts.

 

[MaiKatze]

Well, we can take a look at current Season's Best scores, remove the ladies who won't be at Worlds, and we can have more or less a snapshot of the current possibilities. But they're mere possibilities.

The scary thing on that list is Rika's low placement. And Wakaba really has to concentrate. The judges are willing to go with her but her tech must be faultless.