2016-17 State of Japanese Ladies Skating

[AnCho]

I disagree. I used to get annoyed when bots made slo-mo videos showing Mao UR all her jumps. I do feel JSF will not do Satoko any favor in the future based on her refusal to participate this year. I think if there are 3 spots for Olympics, and if

1. Mai
2. Kaori
3. Satoko
4/5. Mao/Marin whichever order

Satoko will be staying home for one of Mao/Marin. If there are 2 spots, and if Satoko doesn't come in 1st, and Marin is 3rd or Mao is 3rd, she's also staying home. This is why it is very important she has to win Nationals next year to go. When Miki came back, Japan had 3 spots for Sochi. Miki was a WC in that quad, and they said the only way she could go to the Olympics was to win Nationals.

Sorry if this sounds rude or offensive but I have to disagree with the suggestions that Satoko will be staying home for Mao/marin if she places 3rd in next Nationals while Mao/Marin is 4/5 (if I understood the post correctly). If Satoko is consistently performing well next season as she did this season, and she placed higher in Nationals, it would be unwise to skip her . As other poster has mentioned, She has shown this season that she is the one capable of breaking the Russian dominance in the podium (like in GPF 2016), it would be misstep if JSN overlook their most probable to place high in Olympics skater for other skaters who placed lower in Nationals and have yet to show her calibre in Senior field against other senior Russian or Canadian or American skaters. I have nothing against Mao as well (in fact she is the first skater that draw me to ladies figure skating with her performance in Vancouver), but she needs to bring back her A game next season to be a contender. Besides, don't count out Wakaba just yet. If results in Nationals is the important criteria, She has consistently medal in Nationals two years in a row (if i remember correctly). Then Wakaba has potential too.

And it's not like Satoko wants to withdraw, she has no choice because of the severity of her injury . I am pretty sure she would compete rather than withdrawing. There was no legitimate reason to really hold her unfortunate absense in WC against her now wouldn't it?

 

[ioanna]

When Miki came back, Japan had 3 spots for Sochi. Miki was a WC in that quad, and they said the only way she could go to the Olympics was to win Nationals.

Miki came back after not competing at all for two seasons and after having a baby. Her condition was far from perfect and she was far from the podium at 2013 Nationals. I don't see any similarities at all.

 

[Sai Bon]

I have read recently the article that Mao will be sent to Korea only in case she wins Nationals next year.
http://asajo.jp/excerpt/25996
"Winning Nationals is an absolute requirement (for Mao) to go to the Olympics"

The source is an online gossip mag and the quote is attributed to an unnamed sports journalist. So I would take it all with several pinches of salt.
That being said, I imagine Mao will have to do really well in whatever international assignments she gets AND win Nationals (maybe 2nd at a pinch) next season to get on the Olympic team unless all the other top girls have a terrible season, which is highly unlikely.

 

[Sam L]

Isn't Satoko like the safest bet to medal at Olympics for Japan? Let's just she gets better and comes back strong. That's the most important thing.

 

[ioanna]

Satoko Miyahara, who is missing the World Championships due to a hip stress fracture, will stay off ice for a month concentrating on rehabilitation. In her quick preparation for the World Championships, the pain caused by the injury had gotten worse. As her goal remains the Olympic Games next year in February, she’s planning on doing light off-ice training such as walking and physical strengthening to heal the affected hip.

https://headlines.yahoo.co.jp/hl?a=20170322-01795863-nksports-spo

 

[Marius]

Satoko Miyahara, who is missing the World Championships due to a hip stress fracture, will stay off ice for a month concentrating on rehabilitation. In her quick preparation for the World Championships, the pain caused by the injury had gotten worse. As her goal remains the Olympic Games next year in February, she’s planning on doing light off-ice training such as walking and physical strengthening to heal the affected hip.

https://headlines.yahoo.co.jp/hl?a=20170322-01795863-nksports-spo

Hurry doesn't help
Poor Satoko, hope she will soon get well and that she will return with her beautiful emotional skating in competition very soon

 

[FlattFan]

Miki came back after not competing at all for two seasons and after having a baby. Her condition was far from perfect and she was far from the podium at 2013 Nationals. I don't see any similarities at all.

After having a baby, Miki was still able to do 3x3. Her condition was quite amazing. What are you talking about? If she was far from perfect that 2013-2014 season, satoko doesn't have a chance coming from this injury.

If Wakaba places out of the top 10 at this World, even if she places 2nd at Nat next year, they wouldn't send her. She's a choker.

If Satoko can't win Nat next year, she's also a goner.

 

[ioanna]

After having a baby, Miki was still able to do 3x3. Her condition was quite amazing. What are you talking about? If she was far from perfect that 2013-2014 season, satoko doesn't have a chance coming from this injury.

If Wakaba places out of the top 10 at this World, even if she places 2nd at Nat next year, they wouldn't send her. She's a choker.

If Satoko can't win Nat next year, she's also a goner.

So this was perfect and it was JSF's fault for not sending her at the Sochi Olympics. Ok.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=ENyghkH5ZzM

Since Miki herself was sent to 2 Olympics without placing on the podium at Nationals (she was chosen over Yoshie Onda and Yukari Nakano in 2005 and again over Yukari Nakano in 2009) why would Satoko be a "goner" if she can't win Nationals next season?

 

[FlattFan]

So this was perfect and it was JSF's fault for not sending her at the Sochi Olympics. Ok.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=ENyghkH5ZzM

Since Miki herself was sent to 2 Olympics without placing on the podium at Nationals (she was chosen over Yoshie Onda and Yukari Nakano in 2005 and again over Yukari Nakano in 2009) why would Satoko be a "goner" if she can't win Nationals next season?

Miki in 2006 was a young upstart like Marin in 2018. You can bet your house even if Marin finishes 4th and Satoko or Wakaba is 3rd and Japan can only send 3, Marin will go over one of these. If satoko can't keep her consistency and finishes 3rd, what's the chance she will do well at the Olympics, 0. Marin, otoh, is good at big event.
In 2009, Miki was the highest placing japanese for the preceding world, and medaled at the GPF. You can't claim the same for satoko, she's missing the preceding world, and she's probably not going to medal at the GPF this year coming back from an injury. Very different situation.
To go to the Olympics, Satoko must win Nat. Same with Wakaba. She's just choking left and right for years.

 

[lishazard]

To go to the Olympics, Satoko must win Nat. Same with Wakaba. She's just choking left and right for years.

It might be true that Wakaba needs to win Nationals or at least podium with high scores to be considered for Olympics, since her senior record is rather underwhelming, but I don't think that's the case for Satoko. She's been consistently delivering for Japan since 2014. Assuming she recovers from injury in time for the GP season, I see no reason to count her out. To say that Marin in 4th place would be sent over Satoko in 2nd / 3rd is really discrediting everything that Satoko has done for Japanese ladies figure skating.

This by the way is coming from someone who prefers Marin's skating and would love to see her representing Japan next year. But only if Marin earns it. If Mai or Kaori or one of the Yunas delivers at Nationals next year and earns a medal convincingly, and assuming that they have strong GP / JGP seasons, then she deserves to go over Marin.

Speaking of Yuna...I really hope Yuna A gets over her slump and becomes a contender. She has so much potential, great musicality with big jumps. It would be a shame were her career to peak as a novice.

 

[FlattFan]

It might be true that Wakaba needs to win Nationals or at least podium with high scores to be considered for Olympics, since her senior record is rather underwhelming, but I don't think that's the case for Satoko. She's been consistently delivering for Japan since 2014. Assuming she recovers from injury in time for the GP season, I see no reason to count her out. To say that Marin in 4th place would be sent over Satoko in 2nd / 3rd is really discrediting everything that Satoko has done for Japanese ladies figure skating.

This by the way is coming from someone who prefers Marin's skating and would love to see her representing Japan next year. But only if Marin earns it. If Mai or Kaori or one of the Yunas delivers at Nationals next year and earns a medal convincingly, and assuming that they have strong GP / JGP seasons, then she deserves to go over Marin.

Speaking of Yuna...I really hope Yuna A gets over her slump and becomes a contender. She has so much potential, great musicality with big jumps. It would be a shame were her career to peak as a novice.

True. Satoko was delivering for Japan since 2014. However, without Satoko, Japan would still keep 3 spots with the other two skaters. Satoko didn't save JSF, except for that one time she got the silver medal in 2015.
I do believe she earned her spot for the Olympic, but from JSF perspective, I don't see how she's more valuable compare to a host of young girls coming up from the junior rank.
Mai should use this chance to establish herself as the new Satoko (consistent & can deliver when the others falter) Once she got that down, JSF has no use for Satoko anymore. They can send Mai to the Olympics and if the favorites falter, Mai can swoop in and medal.

If they have 2 spots, I think they will go with Marin/Mai combo. Marin can do great thing at big event. Mai can be the one catching the low hanging fruit like Satoko has been doing.

I've said it before she dropped out that it's between Mai and Satoko now. Mai is who she should watch out for, not Marin. A consistent skater's biggest threat is another consistent skater.

 

[AnCho]

Sorry if you will deem my response is offensive, but To imply that Satoko can be easily discarded and that she only catches the low hanging fruits, or that Mai task is to replace Satoko in catching the low hanging fruits thing you are referring to is demeaning to the contribution that Satoko and Mai HAVE done and/or capable of doing. (yes, Satoko's contribution and achievements in senior competitions againts other talented skaters are real. Not just if or when but She has actually earned them. I cannot talk about the future, but i am sticking to what I have observed this season and the past).

Satoko might not safe the JSF, but she HAS SHOWN times and again to be the skater, if not the only skater, who brings home the glory . Like the case of GPF 2016, where she is the ONLY senior JPN ladies skater to advance to senior final and actually medal against talented skaters.

Mai, Marin, Wakaba, and Satoko have competed against each other in the same level in the last Nationals, and who have won the last competition? The skaters that, as I use the term you use, have been catching the low hanging fruits and the one who does not have the pretty face. If she can be beaten by the skater who only picks the low hanging fruits, Are you saying that Marin is also one of the "low hanging fruits" then? Isn't that rude?

I am not bashing or hating please, but i just want to say:
Before we discredit one's chances to shine in Olympics or any senior circuits competitions or praising others like they will be the goddess of figure skating so high in his/her throne, why don't we wait until these skaters actually showed that they deserve the heap of praises or load of the negativity? I will not deny Marin's talent, there's no denying to that or the possibility she can soar in the senior circuits (or the reverse), but as I have mentioned before, she still needs to show that she can hold herself in the senior competitions against other uber talented senior skaters. Until then, everything still up in the air.

Peace all

 

[Jammers]

True. Satoko was delivering for Japan since 2014. However, without Satoko, Japan would still keep 3 spots with the other two skaters. Satoko didn't save JSF, except for that one time she got the silver medal in 2015.
I do believe she earned her spot for the Olympic, but from JSF perspective, I don't see how she's more valuable compare to a host of young girls coming up from the junior rank.
Mai should use this chance to establish herself as the new Satoko (consistent & can deliver when the others falter) Once she got that down, JSF has no use for Satoko anymore. They can send Mai to the Olympics and if the favorites falter, Mai can swoop in and medal.

If they have 2 spots, I think they will go with Marin/Mai combo. Marin can do great thing at big event. Mai can be the one catching the low hanging fruit like Satoko has been doing.

I've said it before she dropped out that it's between Mai and Satoko now. Mai is who she should watch out for, not Marin. A consistent skater's biggest threat is another consistent skater.

Not so last year. Between Mao and Hongo they would have lost the 3rd spot without Satoko.

 

[narcissa]

Not so last year. Between Mao and Hongo they would have lost the 3rd spot without Satoko.

tbf, they would have both moved up 1 spot to 6th and 7th and kept the 3rd spot

 

[FlattFan]

tbf, they would have both moved up 1 spot to 6th and 7th and kept the 3rd spot

Exactly.
Look, Satoko is one of the most consistent skater out there. People have been on and on about her small jumps. She's the one you can count on to deliver and when the top tier skaters are all clean, she is down the rank. She needs others to make mistakes. And with the ladies being so inconsistent, they will make mistakes. She's there on the podium by default due to her amazing consistency. This is why I said she's a low hanging fruit skater.

If Mai can fill this void, it's hard for JSF to go with Satoko moving forward. This is reality. If everyone skates clean, where do you think Satoko will place. It's not a dig against her.

 

[narcissa]

I think Satoko will be sent to the Olympics if she places top [number of spots] at Nationals next year. Maybe so even if she places 1 spot lower.

She deserves it and JSF isn't *that* evil.

 

[FlattFan]

In the past, JSF has done some crazy stuffs.
Who will go with just 2 spots if the following scenarios play out

1. Kaori
2. Satoko
3. Marin (highest placing at the GPF, a bronze. Satoko didn't make GPF)

1. Mai
2. Satoko
3. Marin (highest placing at the GPF)

1. Marin
2. Satoko
3. Mai (highest placing at the GPF, 4th at this year world)

I find it hard to believe that Mai or Marin wouldn't just take the 2nd spot.

 

[narcissa]

In the past, JSF has done some crazy stuffs.
Who will go with just 2 spots if the following scenarios play out

1. Kaori
2. Satoko
3. Marin (highest placing at the GPF, a bronze. Satoko didn't make GPF)

1. Mai
2. Satoko
3. Marin (highest placing at the GPF)

1. Marin
2. Satoko
3. Mai (highest placing at the GPF, 4th at this year world)

I find it hard to believe that Mai or Marin wouldn't just take the 2nd spot.

The only case where it would be questionable would be the first one. If Satoko places 2nd, Marin or Mai 3rd, and she makes the GPF but not the highest place, I feel like she would still be sent. Mai and Marin are young and JSF has questionably been a more "wait your turn" fed.

 

[ioanna]

I think I'm going to bookmark this thread and bring it back in December when Satoko will win her 4th National title.

 

[FlattFan]

I think I'm going to bookmark this thread and bring it back in December when Satoko will win her 4th National title.

If she wins, she's going for sure. I said she needs to win to guarantee her spot. I'm not saying she can't win. She just can't lose.