The only way he can do 5 quads without losing a 3A is to add the 4lz and I don't think he'll do that unless he's been secretly practicing it and I doubt he'd give up a 3A.
If he added a 4lz and did the 4t-lo-3s he did in practice his bv goes up by like 8 points but...I dunno if the risk is worth it. He can do his planned content with high quality to get +2/3 GOE on all/a majority of elements, which could be enough to win since if he skated clean he can also achieve high PCS but.... he might rely on others making mistakes or getting lower GOE/PCS. *shrug*
But if he tries a 4lz and falls on it then any potential boot to his bv will be minimal/lost and it won't be worth it. It's safer to go with his planned content. I don't think he will attempt a change is he is confident in his ability to land all his planned content with excellent quality.
He can't rely on others and can't rely on GOE. He will be skating early and judges not gonna do any favour to him. He must go all in
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