Ladies OGM Contenders 2018

[surimi]

Right now my money is on at least 2 Russian ladies, both top Canadian ladies, and Miyahara; or maybe Honda if she makes a splash. I think Kostner can still easily challenge for GP podiums, but for OG, I'm not so sure, unless she's upping her technical content or getting superconsistent.

 

[Ender]

Have people forgotten Carolina Kostner? This might be perfect no pressure and she podiums. There is a reasonable chance an American will be on the podium it just might be a North American from Canada and not the US which would be kind of shocking. Those pesky Canadians lol have caused problems for those in Trumpland. The perky Liz Manley stealing Debi Thomas thunder in 1988 and shocking everyone including Debi who fell to third, then the grieving Joannie preventing Mirai from getting an Oly medal. Then again Osmond and Daleman keeping yet another American off the podium. Go Canada!!!! Happy Birthday Canada - 150years strong. Eh! Yay to poutine, beavertails, maple syrup, triple axel, quad toe loop, hockey, lacrosse, curling, Lululemon, Mounties and good manners!

Her jumps are weaker, her speed is slower, her stamina is shorter. I don't think she can medal at Olympic. Coming back and making it to the Olympic is the biggest victory she can have.

 

[sarama]

Her jumps are weaker, her speed is slower, her stamina is shorter. I don't think she can medal at Olympic. Coming back and making it to the Olympic is the biggest victory she can have.

Well I definitely don't expect Kostner to medal, but I didn't last time either. Anyway I'm sure she doesn't consider going to the Olympics again a victory, since it's kind of an easy task for her. Having two or more good performances there is probably her goal.

 

[4everchan]

^^ and I think, she wants to end in Milan, at home for WC. Like others who have come back, she has nothing much to prove and the one missing piece of hardware isn't really available anymore for her to get. However, I am sure she didn't want to end her career with a suspension. Home championships, with perhaps even a chance to medal depending how many ladies skip on it due to fatigue, would be a much better way to say goodbye.

This being said, judges always loved her and if she does skate well, she will score high.

 

[sarama]

^^ and I think, she wants to end in Milan, at home for WC. Like others who have come back, she has nothing much to prove and the one missing piece of hardware isn't really available anymore for her to get. However, I am sure she didn't want to end her career with a suspension. Home championships, with perhaps even a chance to medal depending how many ladies skip on it due to fatigue, would be a much better way to say goodbye.

This being said, judges always loved her and if she does skate well, she will score high.

She didn't know Worlds would have been in Italy when she announced she was coming back, and I think she did say it was because she wanted to go the Olympics again. But I do agree that the suspension might have been a bit of a blessing in disguise in all of this, because the fact that she couldn't compete and almost couldn't even train, probably pissed her off a bit. And also she probably wanted to rectify her image. She isn't a big star in Italy, but she is a public figure (well at least more than let's say Anna and Luca who are basically no one here), and that scandal was very much talked about, so I'm glad she gets a chance under the spotlight again to just skate.
Worlds in Milano are probably a nice bonus.

 

[drivingmissdaisy]

Her jumps are weaker, her speed is slower, her stamina is shorter. I don't think she can medal at Olympic. Coming back and making it to the Olympic is the biggest victory she can have.

This is how I feel, although the Olympics are always full of surprises. I think that, on a good day, she might still be able to land 7 triples and earn great PCS. However, she isn't likely to repeat the harder triples in the LP, probably won't backload much of her jump content, and can give away points on the spins. These will make it difficult for her to catch the top skaters IMO.

 

[mrrice]

I would love to see a US Lady on the Podium again however, only if they skate their way into a medal. I don't want to see any scandals and I don't care where the Gold Medalist comes from, as long as they earned it by being the best the skater in event.

 

[Sam-Skwantch]

I would love to see a US Lady on the Podium again however, only if they skate their way into a medal. I don't want to see any scandals and I don't care where the Gold Medalist comes from, as long as they earned it by being the best the skater in event.

Polina has been showing some pretty serious training clips on Insta so I think she's taking the comeback seriously. Mariah would melt my heart if she won a medal. I think both could challenge and to your earlier point...I think would have to earn it.

 

[skylark]

She didn't know Worlds would have been in Italy when she announced she was coming back, and I think she did say it was because she wanted to go the Olympics again. But I do agree that the suspension might have been a bit of a blessing in disguise in all of this, because the fact that she couldn't compete and almost couldn't even train, probably pissed her off a bit. And also she probably wanted to rectify her image. She isn't a big star in Italy, but she is a public figure (well at least more than let's say Anna and Luca who are basically no one here),

Really? That's interesting. Six-time Italian champs, and world champions. I wonder why? They seem like extroverts, not so much private people. I'm just curious.

I love what Carolina says, that she's skating for herself. I think she said someplace that she wanted to see what challenges still exist within her skating itself.

 

[skylark]

I would love to see a US Lady on the Podium again however, only if they skate their way into a medal. I don't want to see any scandals and I don't care where the Gold Medalist comes from, as long as they earned it by being the best the skater in event.

Good luck with that. Figure skating is still subjective, and it will be unless they make it a skate-down-the-rink-and-do-your-jump contest.

But I agree with you. I'd love to see a US Lady on the Podium, and I want to see her earn it. There's room for controversy in most Olympic and World championship medals, though: Differences of opinion and what different judges value. But I dislike scandals as much as you do.

 

[[email protected]]

It's hard to imagine the Russian sweep even if all of the team show the skates of their life. Subjective aspects may still prevail. Then the choice of the team will be important to pick on those who will have higher "brand equity" other things being equal. At this stage Zagitova's "international brand" is weaker than Radionova's, Pogorilaya's, and Tutamysheva's. But it will easily change if she shows strong GP performance and becomes second (first?) at the Nationals and Europeans. Then the question will be if others mentioned will build up their brand. It will be very important if all 3 Russians start in the final group. Those who will be earlier will have very distant podium chances.

A year ago I would not imagine that the main competition will come from the Canadians. They are the threat especially Osmond who will preserve "brand value" even if her GP does not run perfectly. She has the momentum which will last enough time to keep it until the OG. A similar situation was with Gracy whom the judges supported for quite a while until the momentum dried down. With Gaby I am less certain: if she bombs the GP and is out of the final group her medal chances are not obvious.

Japan is in a difficult situation. If Satoko is fully recovered she is the best chance. Despite WTT I don't see Mai and Wakaba as big podium contenders as of today - no convincing track record.

Just theoretical chances IMO: Adelina, Karolina, Ashley, Gracie.

All in all, everything below Medvedeva has been quite turbulent. Therefore, brand topic may become even more important than usual. Here I talk about long-term and short-term brand power. With the former it's just about Karolina, Adelina, and Kaetlyn to a lesser extent Gracie, Liza, and Ashley - the latter all lost a lot of it during the last season. The short-term brand power will be gained during GP series. And it will be more important than the fact that Caro used to score high and Adelina is the reigning OGM winner. That's why I believe it will be very important to shine during their competitions and GPF for those who aim at the podium. I would give 90%+ chance that all OG medal winners will start SP in the final group. Who will be there? - that's the question I have no answer to. Even with Medvedeva we don't know how the growth is treating her this summer.

 

[Tutto]

^Agree with most of your analysis but I don't see Adelina even in the theoretical chances category especially as by her own admission her injury is a serious one. Other ladies from same group at least have GP assignments and some momentum from the last season. Gracie I am still hopeful about perhaps wrongly, at least if she is regaining her form she has GPs to prove to the judges that she is back

 

[tars]

I can't take seriously any analyses of OGM contenders lacking Marin Honda's name in it, sorry.

 

[withwings]

I can't take seriously any analyses of OGM contenders lacking Marin Honda's name in it, sorry.

I too.

 

[mrrice]

I can't take seriously any analyses of OGM contenders lacking Marin Honda's name in it, sorry.

I agree with this comment. There is so much time between now and the games that's it's really too to tell. Alina ZAGITOVA isn't on any of ladies lists and I think she might be a threat as well.

 

[Ender]

I can't take seriously any analyses of OGM contenders lacking Marin Honda's name in it, sorry.

Historically, the young girls who won Olympic have been the girls who did at least a senior season before Olympic. I don't recall girls turning senior right at Olympic season winning it.

 

[mrrice]

Historically, the young girls who won Olympic have been the girls who did at least a senior season before Olympic. I don't recall girls turning senior right at Olympic season winning it.

This is true......Even Tara and Sarah had been to Senior Worlds before they won. In fact, Tara was the reigning Senior World Champion before she won in 1998. Sarah was the Bronze Medalist going into Salt Lake City. Zagitova is facing a deep field of hungry ladies and I think her task of making the team will be extremely difficult. With Med being the leader, they still have Rad, Tuk, Pogo, Leonova, and Lip and those are just skaters I can think of. I'm sure there are more.

 

[Ender]

This is true......Even Tara and Sarah had been to Senior Worlds before they won. In fact, Tara was the reigning Senior World Champion before she won in 1998. Zagitova is facing a deep field of hungry ladies and I think her task of making the team will be extremely difficult. With Med being the leader, they still Rad, Tuk, Pogo, Leonova, and Lip and those are just skaters I can think of. I'm sure their are more.

Bauil was senior WC before winning Olympic. Yamaguchi. Even Sotnikova. They all were senior already.

 

[mrfarmer]

Bauil was senior WC before winning Olympic. Yamaguchi. Even Sotnikova. They all were senior already.

Historically, this is true. But, the Olympics has always been favoring those who will have "their moment". I am inclined to think that if Zagi or Honda (or any other senior debutante) skate their best, (and if, Zhenya falters, or any other top senior lady), the judges are going to push these ladies to the top. Again the GP series will be a pretty strong indicator of the ones who will be in the running, as well as their respective Nationals.

 

[[email protected]]

Historically, this is true. But, the Olympics has always been favoring those who will have "their moment". I am inclined to think that if Zagi or Honda (or any other senior debutante) skate their best, (and if, Zhenya falters, or any other top senior lady), the judges are going to push these ladies to the top. Again the GP series will be a pretty strong indicator of the ones who will be in the running, as well as their respective Nationals.

There are some big differences between Honda and Zagitova. I assume that Satoko is healthy. Then Japan has just 1 slot to fill and Russia has 2 - twice as much. During the last Russian Nationals Zagitova was silver with a big margin over Sotskova. Marin was fourth after her big rivals to get into the team: Mai and Wakaba. Those two went to WTT and showed some crazy scores. So far Marin's best is 200.

So I have not included Marin in the list of contenders as I am not sure that she will get into the Japanese team in the first place. Japan Nationals is the moment of truth, of course. But there will be also the Cup of China where Wakaba, Mai, and Marin will skate against each other (and Zagitova as well). That will be one big event! If Marin wins over all mentioned I would immediately lift her to OM contenders. But not before.