2017-18 State of U.S. Ladies Skating

[frida80]

I think being a US lady right now and making it to the GPF at all would be a huge boon.

Not like this. It would be by luck rather than competitiveness. If Ashley had scored over 200 and won a silver at SC and won SA with 214 points it would’ve showed how competitive she was with these other ladies. Getting a bronze with a 184 is not good at all. If she gets to the finals, it would be because she lucked out st SC and didn’t have a more competitive GP and had a home soil advantage at SA. Going into nationals with a sixth place finish makes our ladies look very weak. If she ended at SA, she could keep up the illusion that the US ladies are strong and will be competitive at the Olympics.

We all know the truth. We aren’t competive this year, and the odds of an Olympic medal in ladies is slim. But appearances everything when we’re talking reputation bias in relation to PCS. A loss can tank your PCS score in the next competition if you aren’t an established winner. Conversely a good win can boost it up the next competition.

It’s a lot of politics in FS. Going to the GPF and making last place doesn’t look good.

 

[drivingmissdaisy]

I worry about Ashley going the GPF. The potential line up will be Evgenia, Kaetlyn, Mai, Wakaba, Alina and Carolina. Ashley should sneak in over Mai or Wakaba. What ever the case, there are some very heavy hitters who've scored very high. Ashley could land in sixth place easily. It would not even the statement she would want to make before nationals.

I almost wish she could end her fall with SA so she could have a triumphant win going into nationals and build on that momentum.

I think making the final is a huge achievement, and it doesn't matter where she finishes there if she gets to the GPF. I doubt any other American woman will even come close to qualifying. However, Ashley will have to skate great at her last GP to make it; she wasn't in the top 3 in the SP or the LP in Canada, so she lucked out a bit to even make the podium.

 

[SkaterX]

Not like this. It would be by luck rather than competitiveness. If Ashley had scored over 200 and won a silver at SC and won SA with 214 points it would’ve showed how competitive she was with these other ladies. Getting a bronze with a 184 is not good at all. If she gets to the finals, it would be because she lucked out st SC and didn’t have a more competitive GP and had a home soil advantage at SA. Going into nationals with a sixth place finish makes our ladies look very weak. If she ended at SA, she could keep up the illusion that the US ladies are strong and will be competitive at the Olympics.

We all know the truth. We aren’t competive this year, and the odds of an Olympic medal in ladies is slim. But appearances everything when we’re talking reputation bias in relation to PCS. A loss can tank your PCS score in the next competition if you aren’t an established winner. Conversely a good win can boost it up the next competition.

It’s a lot of politics in FS. Going to the GPF and making last place doesn’t look good.

I see what you mean about appearances but the judges aren't idiots. They already know that the US ladies aren't very competitive right now so in my opinion better to have a US lady at GPF than not at all. Plus, even though she "lucked out" at Skate Canada that's sort of the way the cookie crumbles for a lot of these GP events. The matchups are sometimes odd and result in weird placements if someone has a bad day.

 

[drivingmissdaisy]

Plus, even though she "lucked out" at Skate Canada that's sort of the way the cookie crumbles for a lot of these GP events. The matchups are sometimes odd and result in weird placements if someone has a bad day.

Good points. A lot of outside factors can affect performance quality too, such as altitude, ice quality, etc., so even a low score here doesn't mean a skater wouldn't skate better in different conditions.

 

[skylark]

Honestly i was hoping to see Courtney ahead of Ashley: first America needs to have a new Ashley for the future after the Olympics, and it might be Courtney, while Ashley needs to understand .... so she needs more stable jumps and spins.

Do you really think that Ashley doesn't understand? Ashley is nothing if not savvy and realistic. But she also understands the power of a program skated with conviction, passion, musicality, interpretation, and the best technique that one can manage in that moment. It was close, but Ashley skated her FS better than Courtney did. By the way, I love Courtney's FS and am really happy for her that she put together two good programs at SC. As for your suggestion that America needs a "new Ashley" for the future ... well, I can't imagine thinking that way. Maybe after an Olympic year, look more toward the future. Olympic year is not the time. Time to maximize what we have, now.

And everyone should do the summer camp to mishin or go to some other technician because no one is struggling with URs more than the american ladies this season: Ashley, Karen, Mirai, Polina Mariah... the only one who isn't is Courtney right now.

Perhaps you didn't see the protocols. Courtney got called for two URs in her fs at SC: for the 2A and the 3S on her 3-jump combo. But I like your idea about a summer camp with Mishin or another technician.

 

[frida80]

I see what you mean about appearances but the judges aren't idiots. They already know that the US ladies aren't very competitive right now so in my opinion better to have a US lady at GPF than not at all. Plus, even though she "lucked out" at Skate Canada that's sort of the way the cookie crumbles for a lot of these GP events. The matchups are sometimes odd and result in weird placements if someone has a bad day.

Momentum is everything. She had weaker season last year, means that she has to show she’s strong this year. If she lands at the bottom of the GPF with a 186, she won’t be a lock for anything. Plus NBC was planning on using SA, GPF, and nationals as a way to build momentum for the Olympics. So there’s bound to be lots more publicity and focus on this year’s GPF. If she loses just before nationals, the narrative will be negative about her and all US ladies. It’s that bad PR that will diminish her accomplishment and make her place on the team less secure. She will be left off the team unless she finishes on the podium at nationals. It would look best if she just missed the GPF but looked strong, than winning it and then having her score drop like a stone. It’s inevitable. Ashley is weaker in Asian competitions. Sigh... why couldn’t they be in Europe this year....

 

[drivingmissdaisy]

Momentum is everything. She had weaker season last year, means that she has to show she’s strong this year. If she lands at the bottom of the GPF with a 186, she won’t be a lock for anything. Plus NBC was planning on using SA, GPF, and nationals as a way to build momentum for the Olympics. So there’s bound to be lots more publicity and focus on this year’s GPF. If she loses just before nationals, the narrative will be negative about her and all US ladies. It’s that bad PR that will diminish her accomplishment and make her place on the team less secure. She will be left off the team unless she finishes on the podium at nationals. It would look best if she just missed the GPF but looked strong, than winning it and then having her score drop like a stone. It’s inevitable. Ashley is weaker in Asian competitions. Sigh... why couldn’t they be in Europe this year....

I agree with what I bolded, and I believe this will be true in any case unless something completely unexpected happens at Nationals, such as a complete surprise 3rd place finisher (maybe Angela) and one of Ashley or Karen in 4th. Still, I'd go with the 3rd place finisher but I could see the USFSA doing something else.

 

[Moxiejan]

Not like this. It would be by luck rather than competitiveness. If Ashley had scored over 200 and won a silver at SC and won SA with 214 points it would’ve showed how competitive she was with these other ladies. Getting a bronze with a 184 is not good at all. If she gets to the finals, it would be because she lucked out st SC and didn’t have a more competitive GP and had a home soil advantage at SA. Going into nationals with a sixth place finish makes our ladies look very weak. If she ended at SA, she could keep up the illusion that the US ladies are strong and will be competitive at the Olympics.

If Ashley making the GPF and finishing 6th there is considered making the U.S. ladies look "very weak," then how is that worse than none of the other U.S. ladies making it? Or even getting a GP medal?

 

[Mathman]

Have we seen any clips of Gracie practicing? Until I get a chance to see her and Polina later in the season, it's too early for me to make a good guess.

I am not so hopeful. I do not think we will see Gracie in competition again. Polina has a long way to go to get her jumps back.

I think Ashley's a lock after moving up the way she did in Canada. At this point, I think the committee would put her on the team like they did in 2014.

If Mirai skates well in her GP's I think it will do a lot for her confidence and with her new and improved jumps, I think she'll make it too.

At Skate Canada Ashley only moved up to 4th in the LP, against a not particularly strong field. OK, that's better than 7th, but still... I don't think that her past achievements (three U.S. championships, a world silver medal) will be relevant to this year's Selection Committee.

As for Mirai, she has already done badly in her first Grand Prix event, finishing 9th.

I have to admit I am feeling a little bit about this season for U.S. ladies.

 

[drivingmissdaisy]

I have to admit I am feeling a little bit about this season for U.S. ladies.

Only a little? :sad4:

 

[snowflake]

I can't ever remember a time when U.S. ladies were in such a state of flux approaching the Olympics. Nobody is a favorite, no one is out of the picture, in terms of making the Olympic team.

And sorry to say, no one has shown great skating.

Mathman, you look different… in a good way… more colorful

The season is still very early. Most Skaters are worried about peaking too early.

Hope you're right. Perhaps they save themselves for nationals, which should be the big test.

 

[andromache]

At Skate Canada Ashley only moved up to 4th in the LP, against a not particularly strong field. OK, that's better than 7th, but still... I think that her past achievements (three U.S. championships, a world silver medal) will be relevant to this year's Selection Committee.

There's something to be said for being able to put together two not-terrible performances and stay afloat to medal - something I am fairly certain no other US lady would be capable of. I thought Anna and Marin (especially Marin) were both locks to beat her here, honestly, but both of them had one awful program. Ashley also had the second-highest PCS in both programs.

(I'm just trying to be a little optimistic, I guess, even though I do totally agree with you.)

Really though, Ashley is the only US woman I would trust to go out there during the team event and not have a Jeremy Abbott-style meltdown. I imagine it would be in USFS's best interest to use two dance teams and two men (so as not to tire out Nathan) for the team event, so one lady will have to do both team event programs. Then again, I'm not sure how well Ashley will hold up for the singles competition after an SP and LP for the team event, whereas somebody like Karen I could imagine totally bombing the team event and skating lights out for the singles event.

USFS could also have two women skate the team event, risk a Jeremy Abbott-meltdown SP from Karen or Mirai or Courtney, let Ashley do her thing in the LP, and send the Shibs (consistency) to do the team event. But really, if any discipline in the US deserves two teams getting to win Olympic medals, it's ice dance.

 

[SkaterX]

Here are Ashley's own thoughts on the GPF:

https://youtu.be/yxI7dZ7m1sk?t=22m23s

She says that although it would reduce training time she wants to go because it would help her with the Olympic team selection by showing she's in the top 6.

 

[drivingmissdaisy]

She says that although it would reduce training time she wants to go because it would help her with the Olympic team selection by showing she's in the top 6.

That might be true. All of the real contenders for Olympic medals are participating in the GP, so to be top 6 in that group says a lot.

 

[BackSpiral]

I really expected this year for the U.S. Ladies to start differently. Karen came off of a 4th place finish at Worlds...I expected Ashley to really want to improve after last year (same with Gracie though I didn't know she was struggling with depression & a ED when forming my expectations), and the same goes for Mirai who did well at 4CC's and looked great over the summer. I really don't get why such mediocre performances (compared to their bests) are happening. None of these girls have the "look" of wanting it and look terrified when they take the ice. Now I'm positive they want top results, I just don't sense the killer instinct.

 

[Jammers]

I think Ashley is a lock for the Olympic team. From the current US ladies she is the only one with a World silver medal, she was on the podium at her first GP and with her skating skills she will score big if clean. So I don't think the federation will risk not sending her, regardless what will happen at nationals.
The other 2 spots are a big question mark at this moment.

Skating skills? Her skating skills are among the weakest among the top Ladies she was mostly clean landing her jumps in the LP but if she's underotating her jumps even landing them she won't get a big score as she found out at SC.

 

[Globetrotter]

Skating skills? Her skating skills are among the weakest among the top Ladies she was mostly clean landing her jumps in the LP but if she's underotating her jumps even landing her them won't get her a big score as she found out at SC.

I believe the original poster Corynna probably meant Ashley has strong performance and interpretive skills to wow the audience and judges, not the SS criteria as defined by ISU. It is pretty evident that she has probably the weakest edge work and gliding and is mediocre at varying speeds nicely. Still as a performer, she is right near the top.

 

[Tolstoj]

Do you really think that Ashley doesn't understand? Ashley is nothing if not savvy and realistic. But she also understands the power of a program skated with conviction, passion, musicality, interpretation, and the best technique that one can manage in that moment. It was close, but Ashley skated her FS better than Courtney did. By the way, I love Courtney's FS and am really happy for her that she put together two good programs at SC.

Last season we were all saying the same and it happened the opposite: yes she was good enough for the bronze medal there, but even with the 3-1-3 i can't see her at the top 5 at Olympics/Worlds. (Medvedeva, Kostner, Osmond, Zagitova, Higuchi, maybe even Miyahara/Mihara)

We all love her but that can't change her issues with the URs/2foot landings, her lost levels on the spins and sometimes stsq, she is recycling old programs (so will the judges ever reward her for something we already saw so many times?),...

So if this is America's biggest hope for 2018 in Ladies, she needs more than this. (and that means more consistency and maybe more transitions)

As for your suggestion that America needs a "new Ashley" for the future ... well, I can't imagine thinking that way. Maybe after an Olympic year, look more toward the future. Olympic year is not the time. Time to maximize what we have, now.

But US fed always did that, think about the last Olympics:

2006 -> Kimmie Meissner is the new talent from juniors, immediately sent her to the Olympics and Worlds at her first year in seniors

2010 -> Mirai Nagasu second years in seniors, just moved to Frank Carroll and sent to Worlds and the Olympics

2014 -> Same thing happened to Gracie Gold.

2018 -> who is going to be the new young star to push for the future? Karen Chen or Bradie Tennell?

Olympics are clearly the moment where the federation wants to build the future of figure skating in US

Perhaps you didn't see the protocols. Courtney got called for two URs in her fs at SC: for the 2A and the 3S on her 3-jump combo. But I like your idea about a summer camp with Mishin or another technician.

Yes but judging at Skate Canada was very weird: we all know that outside of that competition, Karen and Ashley are still struggling with the underrotations while Courtney not as much.

 

[skylark]

2006 -> Kimmie Meissner is the new talent from juniors, immediately sent her to the Olympics and Worlds at her first year in seniors

2010 -> Mirai Nagasu second years in seniors, just moved to Frank Carroll and sent to Worlds and the Olympics

2014 -> Same thing happened to Gracie Gold.

2018 -> who is going to be the new young star to push for the future? Karen Chen or Bradie Tennell?

I guess you're building an argument for one action or another. I'm not. I don't see America forsaking the talent we have, who have built up their reputations and their artistry, in favor of untested hope for the future. I think Kimmie, Mirai and Gracie earned their spots on those respective Olympic teams. I see things simply and not strategic, so much. I think whoever earns their spots on the 2018 Olympic team, considering both their placements at Nationals and their body of work as detailed in the guidelines, will be at this Olympics.

 

[artsciboy]

I believe the original poster Corynna probably meant Ashley has strong performance and interpretive skills to wow the audience and judges, not the SS criteria as defined by ISU. It is pretty evident that she has probably the weakest edge work and gliding and is mediocre at varying speeds nicely. Still as a performer, she is right near the top.

Honestly, other than Kostner, Wagner's SS are more than on par with the other top ladies (and yes, I am including Medvedeva). We are not talking about Wagner's SS in 2008 - she has improved to the point where the difference between her SS and those of the majority of the other ladies is negligible. The judges also agree.