2017-18 State of U.S. Ladies Skating

[Tolstoj]

I looked up Polina's JGP record and she is not "prone to URs". The only time she had multiple URs (2) was at 2017 JW when she was suffering from a injury and really should not have competed (she had withdrawn from the JGPF in Dec 2016 because of that same injury). But during the 5 competitions of her JGP career, including 10 SPs and 10 FSs, she had exactly one UR and one fall, and she won all 5 competitions. She has been an amazingly consistent skater.

Yes and even in the junior gp season last season she was a little more insecure than usual because she was coming back from an injury.

When she is on, there is no question on her jumps, and it's actually one of the best jumping technique in ladies.

If Ashley skates at her best, she can win this mostly because of the components, but with a similar outing like the one at Skate Canada, the door for the gold medal is wide open and Polina is one the major contender.

According to Dave Lease though, Ashley is doing lots of interviews, promos,... in these weeks.

 

[brightphoton]

I can't believe people are debating if Ashley can win Skate America. Have you been sleeping during every competition she's done in the last year to year and a half? She doesn't have the technical goods or GOE to best Tsurskaya or even Daleman.

But Ashley (1st) beat Gabrielle Daleman (4th) at Skate America only last year ... :/

Yes I know Gabrielle later beat Ashley at the World championships

I don't follow Canadian ladies so I don't know if Gabrielle recently improved her technique or Skate America 2016 was only a bad day

 

[Spirals for Miles]

Oh no...who would that be? I'd be down with Mirai's SP but the FS is not a good idea. Unless she improves it I'd be afraid that it might not be the best first impression at the Olympics for her. Karen Chen has a nice FS but we still haven't seen it since it's debut and at that point it was just a couple of weeks old.

Bradie's pretty consistent...
But she needs to make it onto the team first.

 

[andromache]

But Ashley (1st) beat Gabrielle Daleman (4th) at Skate America only last year ... :/

Yes I know Gabrielle later beat Ashley at the World championships

I don't follow Canadian ladies so I don't know if Gabrielle recently improved her technique or Skate America 2016 was only a bad day

Gabby is a great SP skater who tends to be a bit of a mess in the LP.

I anticipate Skate America having a kind technical panel, which will make Ashley's job easier.

Polina Tsurskaya got hosed on PCS in Japan - I expect the same in the US.

 

[kalee]

Considering that Ashley these days tends to shy away from, or is hesitant to do, competitions because there too close to nationals or too close to worlds and wants to "peak at the right moment and not burn out," I seriously doubt she would agree to do the SP AND LP for the team event so close to the ladies individual.

I think she'll agree to the SP just to help the team, and get a medal for participating in it, but the USFSA would most likely need to find another lady for the LP. Unfortunately all the other ladies have the same issues for the most part so its not so clear cut. It's a lot harder then 2014 when it was a no brainer.

I don't know the rules : but do they have to choose from the 3 ladies who make it for the individual event or can they pick a separate fourth girl just for the team event?

Mirai seems to be the best bet at this point for the FS... though not without risk...

 

[andromache]

In the team event for the Olympics, the lowest you can place in the LP is 5th or 6th or something, right? So you have your wild card skate then. Send Karen or Mirai to do the LP. Even if they totally bomb, the points for last place in the LP aren't so bad. You can place a lot lower in the SP....that's where you put someone who you know won't bomb, like Ashley.

 

[drivingmissdaisy]

Unless something big changes, there really are no good options for the US as far as ladies go. You COULD utilize Wagner for both portions - which carries risks of its own (and Wagner of course is no rock herself).

The USFSA probably has to look at the competitor fields, too, and examine different scenarios that could lift us to second or drop us to fourth. Wagner won't meltdown by falling, but getting 3-4 under rotation calls is equally devastating to the skater's score.

 

[Moxiejan]

The USFSA probably has to look at the competitor fields, too, and examine different scenarios that could lift us to second or drop us to fourth. Wagner won't meltdown by falling, but getting 3-4 under rotation calls is equally devastating to the skater's score.

Which is why Ashley would be the one to skate the SP. She often gets UR on the triple toe in the combo, but is usually clean on the other 3 jumps. And I can't remember the last time she fell or popped in the SP. She would deliver a "decent" score. Can't say that about Karen, Mirai, etc., etc.

 

[ask]

Polina should have gotten lower PCS. Have anyone rewatched her programs? It is lol & silliness peppered all over. Is that Games of Thrones interpretation worthy of an 8? No, no, no.

 

[Spirals for Miles]

I know she fell in the 2015 GPF SP.
I'd say that the UR risk is still very high though.

 

[Moxiejan]

I know she fell in the 2015 GPF SP.
I'd say that the UR risk is still very high though.

Her risk of one UR is minor compared to the risk of UR + pop + fall from the others.

In all competitions going back to 2015, just one SP fall from Ashley? Most skaters can't say that for just one season.

 

[frida80]

In the team event for the Olympics, the lowest you can place in the LP is 5th or 6th or something, right? So you have your wild card skate then. Send Karen or Mirai to do the LP. Even if they totally bomb, the points for last place in the LP aren't so bad. You can place a lot lower in the SP....that's where you put someone who you know won't bomb, like Ashley.

You’re right. In the LP the lowest you can be is fifth. There is little risk in either Karen or Mirai doing the LP.

The USFSA probably has to look at the competitor fields, too, and examine different scenarios that could lift us to second or drop us to fourth. Wagner won't meltdown by falling, but getting 3-4 under rotation calls is equally devastating to the skater's score.

By my calculations, the highest any US lady will be is fourth in the SP and potentially 3rd in the LP. I base that on who’s qualified in the team competition. Based on points collected so far the qualifying nations are:

Russia
Japan
Canada
USA
China
Italy
France
Germany
Israel
South Korea

Therefore, the US will get beaten by Zhenia, Kaetlyn, Wakaba, and Carolina. In other words, we will be fifth, or fourth at best. It doesn’t really matter, since men’s and dance will hold the team up. All that matters is the pair team does no worse that 5th themselves. If they bomb, the cushion is gone and the US may lose bronze.

Karen may be a better choice for the SP because she hasn’t scored lower that 60. In both her head to heads with Ashley, she beats her even with lower tech. That could change at SA. Hopefully, Ashley will borrow the lucky dress again.

All that matters is that the US lady beats the following countries in the SP:
Germany, Israel, S Korea!, China, and France. I’ve looked at the scores, I don’t think it will be a problem.

 

[andromache]

I know she fell in the 2015 GPF SP.
I'd say that the UR risk is still very high though.

Ashley's history of being a bad SP skater has changed since her WSM. No falls or pops. I can't imagine Ashley placing lower than 5th in the team SP (below a Canadian, Japanese, Russian, and Carolina). Pops/falls could have Mirai or Karen placing lower than a Korean and French lady. In the LP, you can't place lower than 5th.

The structure of the team event is stupid precisely for this reason. But whatever.

 

[andromache]

You’re right. In the LP the lowest you can be is fifth. There is little risk in either Karen or Mirai doing the LP.



By my calculations, the highest any US lady will be is fourth in the SP and potentially 3rd in the LP. I base that on who’s qualified in the team competition. Based on points collected so far the qualifying nations are:

Russia
Japan
Canada
USA
China
Italy
France
Germany
Israel
South Korea

Therefore, the US will get beaten by Zhenia, Kaetlyn, Wakaba, and Carolina. In other words, we will be fifth, or fourth at best. It doesn’t really matter, since men’s and dance will hold the team up. All that matters is the pair team does no worse that 5th themselves. If they bomb, the cushion is gone and the US may lose bronze.

Karen may be a better choice for the SP because she hasn’t scored lower that 60. In both her head to heads with Ashley, she beats her even with lower tech. That could change at SA. Hopefully, Ashley will borrow the lucky dress again.

All that matters is that the US lady beats the following countries in the SP:
Germany, Israel, S Korea!, China, and France. I’ve looked at the scores, I don’t think it will be a problem.

It's possible that Gabby, Alina, and then the second Japanese lady will skate a program. I doubt either country wants to exhaust their individual medal hopefuls by skating two programs for the team event (we all remember what happened to Yulia). Alina won't be beat by a US lady, but Gabby and whoever the 2nd Japanese lady are are beatable by an American, potentially. I'm also not sure if we will see Carolina in the LP portion of the team event - could be a French lady instead, given the strength of J/C and P/C.

 

[R.D.]

In the team event for the Olympics, the lowest you can place in the LP is 5th or 6th or something, right? So you have your wild card skate then. Send Karen or Mirai to do the LP. Even if they totally bomb, the points for last place in the LP aren't so bad. You can place a lot lower in the SP....that's where you put someone who you know won't bomb, like Ashley.

Wagner won’t bomb the SP? :scratch: We’re so sure of that? When in her competitive history has she done that?

Man, I remember being on the edge of my seat when Wagner took the ice for the Sochi Team SP.

That said, the others aren’t really any better. But Chen seems to have a higher score ceiling...

 

[andromache]

Wagner won’t bomb the SP? :scratch: We’re so sure of that? When in her competitive history has she done that?

Man, I remember being on the edge of my seat when Wagner took the ice for the Sochi Team SP.

That said, the others aren’t really any better. But Chen seems to have a higher score ceiling...

Wagner hasn't bombed an SP since 2015. That's more than we can say for any other US lady, unfortunately.

Karen has a higher ceiling, lower floor. Risk-reward. The US should only be trying to hang on to the bronze medal - go with the lower risk.

 

[temadd]

Polina Tsurskaya got hosed on PCS in Japan - I expect the same in the US.

I thought Polina's performance scores in the 8s and 9s were ridiculous. As much as her jumps are breathtaking there was no performance at all.

 

[Parsifal3363]

I’ve been digging all these Baby Polina videos and stories she’s been sharing.

https://instagram.com/p/BbYTmPsH92l/

Polina was such a little charmer as a youngster. The clip of her as a three-year old shows her grinding to a halt, almost using a skier’s “snowplow,” then giving a little wave to the crowd—“Saucing it with a wave,” as her caption puts it—while the one of her as a seven-year old has her coming out of a spin with almost a “ta da” look. She was obviously thrilled with what she was doing.

Her Instagram pages have become much more skating-oriented in recent days. Maybe that’s because her focus has changed as she approaches the Internationaux de France this weekend and the U. S. nationals at the end of December. To come back all the way from her injury in time for these competitions will require intense effort.

The little clips of her growing up on the ice, however, have a certain nostalgia about them. For some, this sort of wistfulness reflects a sense of time passing and, perhaps, something lost along the way.

I wonder what they mean to her…

 

[temadd]

Wagner hasn't bombed an SP since 2015. That's more than we can say for any other US lady, unfortunately.

.

It wasn't a bomb, but an UR 3-3 and Lo in the short at SC is pretty bad. When you have 3 jumping passes and 2 are UR . . . not good and I say this with love in my heart for Ashley.

And where the heck has her 3Lo gone? It used to be her best jump.

 

[andromache]

I thought Polina's performance scores in the 8s and 9s were ridiculous. As much as her jumps are breathtaking there was no performance at all.

Only one judge gave Polina any scores in the 9s, and that was only in the LP. Most of her scores were 7s and low 8s. In the SP, they were primarily low 7s. Overall her scores were only slightly higher than Mirai Nagasu's, and on par with Rika Hongo's, although in my opinion, Polina is much stronger on just about everything (though her LP is admittedly not very good, and that LP costume is even worse).