2017-18 State of U.S. Men's Figure Skating

[Mrs. P]

You guys want to go back and look at 2014, since that's the trend over on the ladies thread? (That was a joke, please don't!)

Max and Jason are in the same practice group for nationals, per Sylvia (the schedule's over there too):

https://unseenskaters.wordpress.com/nationals/

Group A: Nathan Chen (B), Grant Hochstein (B), Timothy Dolensky [E1], Jordan Moeller [M3], Scott Dyer [P3]
Group B: Vincent Zhou (B), Ross Miner (B), Alexander Johnson [M1], Andrew Torgashev (B)[JGPF-6], Jimmy Ma [E2]
Group C: Jason Brown (B), Max Aaron (B), Kevin Shum [E3], Emmanuel Savary [E4], Benjamin Jalovick [M4]
D: Adam Rippon (B), Alex Krasnozhon (B)[JGPF-1], Sean Rabbitt [P1], Tomoki Hiwatashi [M2], Daniel Kulenkamp [P2], Sebastien Payannet [P4]

 

[KwanIsALegend]

I didn't find Adam's GOE inflated at all - I thought it was well-deserved (taking Nationals inflation into account). When on, the quality of his elements is very high, and his landing positions are just great. (Judging by the reactions of the judges and commentators, Adam was NOT the desired winner, IMO, but Max skated tentatively and utterly without the excitement and intensity he brought to Skate America earlier that season, which resulted in lower PCS than he might've received otherwise.)

I hate adjudicating old championships, but I just had to jump in. There's definitely a fair argument to be made about the 4Lz rotation call - but I don't think it has anything to do with a conspiracy theory to push Adam to gold.

Yes, if you watch the 6 minute warm up from nationals 2016, the commentators don't even mention Adam as a possible winner. The focus is on Max and Nathan. Mainly Max.

 

[karne]

My biggest problem with Max has been, and continues to be, his lack of flexibility and difficulty in his spins because they are fixable. This is an area where most of the top Men can beat him easily. Nathan, Adam, Jason, and Tim Dolensky garner so many points off of their spins and that's an area where Max, IMO, has stalled.

I thoroughly disagree. Max is plenty capable of getting level 4s without having to twist himself into a pretzel, and he is doing so. And I would rather him not attempt pretzel spins with his injury history. His primary issue with spins is and always will be his back and that can never be fixed.

I hate adjudicating old championships, but I just had to jump in. There's definitely a fair argument to be made about the 4Lz rotation call - but I don't think it has anything to do with a conspiracy theory to push Adam to gold.

Don't forget the 3Lz-3T that was definitely UR also. Either one of those calls would have been enough to flip the result to the correct one.

 

[ice coverage]

.... Why does he need clean 2 quad SP and 3 quad FS when the other guys aren´t getting a single clean quad in either program? ...

I know Max can land a couple of clean quads. ...

Glad that you have admitted your mistake in your first post quoted above.

---

Mrrice, quads aren’t anything more than point getters. There are other ways to gain points.

... But his quads aren’t a guarantee of anything.

Agreed that quads aren't a guarantee of anything.

But one could just as easily say that any other elements "aren't anything more than point getters."
It is just as true that spins, step sequences, other jumps "aren't anything more than point getters."

If you are trying to draw some contrast to the excitement of watching a program:

For me, any element contributes to my excitement of watching a program: spins, step sequences, jumps.​

---

My biggest problem with Max has been, and continues to be, his lack of flexibility and difficulty in his spins because they are fixable. This is an area where most of the top Men can beat him easily. Nathan, Adam, Jason, and Tim Dolensky garner so many points off of their spins and that's an area where Max, IMO, has stalled.

(1) Through no fault of Max's, I'm not so sure whether his lack of flexibility is fixable.

As karne mentioned, Max broke his back earlier in his career.
Years laters, he said in an interview that his back remains "wonky" (his word) -- meaning, for example, that even picking something up off the floor can feel "wonky."​

(2) Max has not stalled with his spins, IMO.

2017 GP China: SP: one Level 4 spin; two Level 3 + FS (won by Max ): three Level 4 spins

2017 GP France: SP: two Level 4 spins; one Level 3 + FS: two Level 4 spins; one Level 3

Max got positive GOE for all the spins above. But yes, increasing his GOE would help.
And yes, Level 4s across the board would help. That said, even Jason Brown occasionally has a Level 3 spin.​

Yes, other men earn more points for spins than Max does.
Meanwhile, he works with a spin coach, and his spins have been improving. He has not stalled.

 

[Tavi...]

I generally don't get off on adjudicating old championships, but Adam's huge PCS didn't win him that championship. It was his inflated TES - not even the 4Z but the inflated GOE on almost every element. I thought at the time, and still do, that it is the most obvious incident of US National judges pumping up the desired winner.

For arguments sake - granting Nathan the gold - the 2/3 finishers should go to the Olympics, whether Jason or Adam are included in that group or not. There are just not enough great competitions to warrant a BoW team member.

I think that because of the team event, it may be more complicated than that, just as the selection of last year’s Worlds Team was more complicated because of the Olympic spots on the line.

Since I can’t imagine Nathan skating both programs in the team event and jeopardizing his chances at an individual medal, I think the selection committee will want Adam for the FS unless he totally bombs at Nats. He has absolutely been the most consistent of all US men this season, especially in the FS. They probably won’t care as much about who gets the third spot, and will just go with the highest finisher not named Nathan or Adam. I’m not at all an Adam uber (though I respect him); I’m just trying to be realistic and think strategically.

For the record, in Johnny Weir’s opinion (Ice Talk interview), Vincent will absolutely be on the team. I’m not sure I agree, but he may know more than I do!

ETA ice coverage: you’re correct, other elements are also just point getters. But people often say, we should send the guys with quads; I’ve never heard them say, send him because his spins are great. Of course quads are worth a lot more than spins. My point was that quads are not meaningful in and of themselves, but rather, for the points you can score. If you give away a lot of points, your quads aren’t really any advantage. The same is true of Jason’s PCS - he’s been giving away a lot of points with errors lately, so his high PCS isn’t the advantage it should be.

 

[Mrs. P]

I think it's actually pretty different this time around than last season. Last season, prior to his injury, Jason has a huge scoring gap on all the other guys aside from Adam. Adam had pretty much the same SB (like a hair lower) than Jason, so had Adam competed and it was Nathan-Adam - Jason, they wouldn't have picked Jason to go to Worlds.

With Adam out of the picture, Jason huge double digits gaps on everyone else other than Nathan -- we're talking 20-40 points here both average/ and season's best and this is accounting for what turned out to be an injury-induced skate at NHK.

This season, Adam has a slight advantage, but it's not huge. The difference between him and Jason/Max on average overall score is 3 and 5 points, respectively. On Vincent it's higher, but 14. As far as season's best, the difference is higher but still a handful of points: 5 points on Jason/Max and about 10 points on Vincent.

In the free skate, the scores for season's best is pretty much within 1 point of each other:
Adam 177.41
Jason 176.87
Max 176.58
Vincent 176.43

In averages, Adam has a bigger edge (and shows his relative consistency), but it's not huge.
Adam: 172.20
Max 170.21
Vincent 168.81
Jason 168.17
So, I think Adam has an advantage, but I think they're going to go top 3 for spots and top 2 for team event. I don't see them deciding to give Adam the team event spot if he's No. 3 at Nationals.

But I could be wrong.

 

[ask]

Glad that you have admitted your mistake in your first post quoted above.

If you think Max with quad sal and quad toe SP can beat Nathan with just 1 quad, you haven't followed skating at all.
Max with 2 quads in the SP, still score under 90.
Nathan can easily go above 95 with 1 quad. So, no, don't be ridiculous. Nathan doesn't need more than 1 quad in the SP and 1 quad in the LP to be the US champion. He will need every quads to be the Olympic champion, though.

 

[Mrs. P]

Nathan's ambitious. He's not going to water down his content because he has less stiff competition at Nationals.

 

[mrrice]

Nathan's ambitious. He's not going to water down his content because he has less stiff competition at Nationals.

I agree. He may be feeling a little extra pressure since he's defending but, didn't he just lose the free program to Adam Rippon at Skate America? They may not have the consistency of Nathan but, Max, and Vincent are capable of Multi Quad programs and if either of them have the skate of their lives, Nathan could find himself with a Silver, or even a Bronze. Nationals are Nathan's ticket to Korea and I'm sure he wants to go as the US Champion. I highly doubt he'll do any "watering"

 

[ice coverage]

.... Why does he need clean 2 quad SP and 3 quad FS when the other guys aren´t getting a single clean quad in either program? ...

I know Max can land a couple of clean quads. ...

Again, I thank you for correcting your mistake -- and for acknowledging that Max can land clean quads (plural).

If you think Max with quad sal and quad toe SP can beat Nathan with just 1 quad, you haven't followed skating at all. ...

I did not say that I think so.

And yes, I have followed U.S. men's skating quite a lot .

... So, no, don't be ridiculous.

Was not being ridiculous about anything.

---

... ETA ice coverage: you’re correct, other elements are also just point getters. But people often say, we should send the guys with quads; I’ve never heard them say, send him because his spins are great. Of course quads are worth a lot more than spins. My point was that quads are not meaningful in and of themselves, but rather, for the points you can score. If you give away a lot of points, your quads aren’t really any advantage. The same is true of Jason’s PCS - he’s been giving away a lot of points with errors lately, so his high PCS isn’t the advantage it should be.

I understand what you are saying, and for the most part, I agree with what you are saying.

[Agree that no one has lobbied for sending Skater X "because his spins are great."
But will note that in this very thread this afternoon, Max is getting criticism for not earning sufficient points from his spins.]

---

... For the record, in Johnny Weir’s opinion (Ice Talk interview), Vincent will absolutely be on the team. I’m not sure I agree, but he may know more than I do! ...

I will confess to being curious, although I often don't agree with Weir.

Did he make a prediction as to the full Olympic team of three men? Did he say Nathan + Vincent + another man by name???

 

[Spirals for Miles]

You're so kind. I have so little investment in U.S. ladies that it's unlikely I would be able to do a good analysis.

(Mr. P: You haven't said much about any U.S. lady. Me: Well...)

Lol I think I would die of my shock if my family actually wanted to hear about skating!

Also: does Jason have a good chance of making the team if Max beat him at Nats? *DON'T LET THIS HAPPEN SKATING GODS JASON MUST BE ON THE NATIONALS PODIUM*

 

[Mrs. P]

Mr. P's gone to a few competitions with me, including 2014 Nationals. He likes Jason, the Shibs (I admit it might be a case of happy wife/happy life, but he said he enjoyed their performances, as well as Davis/White).

But he's given me the ultimate Christmas present---watching a squirmy active two year old for four days by himself (well, with some help from his parents) so his wife can go to U.S. Nationals and see these men slug it out in person!!! #OweHimBigTime

S4M: To answer your question, I don't think Jason has much of a case if he is OTP and the other top contenders are on the podium.

 

[mrrice]

I thoroughly disagree. Max is plenty capable of getting level 4s without having to twist himself into a pretzel, and he is doing so. And I would rather him not attempt pretzel spins with his injury history. His primary issue with spins is and always will be his back and that can never be fixed.



Don't forget the 3Lz-3T that was definitely UR also. Either one of those calls would have been enough to flip the result to the correct one.

Do you remember Stephane Lambiel's final Combination Spin from Flamenco? He spins fast but he hardly hits a position that could considered "Pretzel-like" I am a huge fan of Max's and I think even with his back problem that he can increase the speed of the spins he has and garner several more points in components if he did so. Watch Stephane's final combination here.....There's no pretzel here and I think with work, Max could do a similar combo and even it wasn't as fast it would be a step up from what he's doing now.

Stephane's LP From Europeans...https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=iahKR6aa2d0

 

[TontoK]

You guys want to go back and look at 2014, since that's the trend over on the ladies thread? (That was a joke, please don't!)

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That thread has gotten delusional. You'd think people were living in the days of Michelle, Tara, Nicole, and Angela N.

I have an opinion (the correct opinion, of course), but honestly, since there is no clear favorite, much less a clear team, heck... a struggle to even piece together a good team from an overall boring and lackluster group... I can't understand what they're all squabbling about. Let 'em skate, and take the best three on the day, and be done with it.

These days ladies skating has become only slightly more interesting to me than pairs.

 

[Tahuu]

That thread has gotten delusional. You'd think people were living in the days of Michelle, Tara, Nicole, and Angela N.

I have an opinion (the correct opinion, of course), but honestly, since there is no clear favorite, much less a clear team, heck... a struggle to even piece together a good team from an overall boring and lackluster group... I can't understand what they're all squabbling about. Let 'em skate, and take the best three on the day, and be done with it.

These days ladies skating has become only slightly more interesting to me than pairs.

Yes, to get on the Olympic team you'll need to finish top three at nationals.

 

[karne]

For the record, in Johnny Weir’s opinion (Ice Talk interview), Vincent will absolutely be on the team. I’m not sure I agree, but he may know more than I do!

Oh? And what was his justification for this? Let me guess, the vague/idiotic "the future!" and "technical potential!" arguments?

Also: does Jason have a good chance of making the team if Max beat him at Nats? *DON'T LET THIS HAPPEN SKATING GODS JASON MUST BE ON THE NATIONALS PODIUM*

I don't think Jason has done enough to bump Max if Jason finishes 4th (which is still on the podium at US Nats!). The USFS, on the other hand...

 

[Tavi...]

Oh? And what was his justification for this? Let me guess, the vague/idiotic "the future!" and "technical potential!" arguments?

It would be nice if you could comment without attacking.

 

[Mrs. P]

That thread has gotten delusional. You'd think people were living in the days of Michelle, Tara, Nicole, and Angela N.

I have an opinion (the correct opinion, of course), but honestly, since there is no clear favorite, much less a clear team, heck... a struggle to even piece together a good team from an overall boring and lackluster group... I can't understand what they're all squabbling about. Let 'em skate, and take the best three on the day, and be done with it.

These days ladies skating has become only slightly more interesting to me than pairs.

Well thankfully the men and ice dance are far more interesting (to me), so I don't lament about the ladies that much.

Anyway, in case you were wondering: A little over three weeks (22 days!) until the men's short program at Nationals. (OMG. I need to start planning stuff....)

And leave it to Adam to get into Deadspin this way laugh: https://deadspin.com/figure-skater-adam-rippon-assures-everyone-that-his-but-1821193173

 

[snowflake]

A little over three weeks (22 days!) until the men's short program at Nationals.

three weeks of speculations without informations

 

[Mrs. P]

three weeks of speculations without informations

I have NUMBERS coming.