So wait, Yuzu is only planning 4Lo for the FS, right??? [emoji33]
xibsuarz was kind enough to calculate expected base values:
Assuming they hit the levels:
CHEN
50.88
UNO
51.31
HANYU
1Quad Loop = 12.0
2Fly. Camel Spin = 3.2
3Change Foot Sit Spin = 3.0
4Triple Axel* = 9.35
5Quad Toeloop + Triple Toeloop* = 16.06
6Step Sequence = 3.9
7Change Foot Combination Spin = 3.5
TOTAL BV = 51.01 (But if he goes for a 4S and not a 4Lo it will be 49.51)
JIN
TOTAL BV = 51.15
KOLYADA
51.15
FERNANDEZ
TOTAL BV = 47.75
CHAN
TOTAL BV = 43.55
I have nothing against Kolyada but I’m already mentally adjusting his expected/estimated BV given that he’s 2/15 on the QLz, so at this point, it’s not an “unplanned” error.
The Washington Post finally figured out Hanyu exists and did a piece on him, which can be more or less summed up as “gee, he wins a lot, lots of one-foot skating, he might beat Chen.” Speaking of Chen: I suppose we’ll know where his head is at after the short, although I wouldn’t be surprised to see Uno leading.
Uno and Hanyu are the only two competitors who I think can simply win the gold medal simply by showing up and skating well; everyone else needs an opportunity beyond just the performance of their lives. If Hanyu turns in a performance that’s 90% of his latest record-smash free skate at Worlds, I don’t see anyone but Uno being able to close the point gap. Uno is the answer to the question no one ever thought to ask: “What if someone had Asada and Weir artificially conceive and Sasha Cohen be the surrogate?” Which is probably why I love him.
America seems to think Rippon should have been ahead of Kolyada because Kolyada fell. This bodes poorly for the land of the free (pun intended). If Chen does more quads but Hanyu or Uno take gold (even with a hand down or an actual fall), I think we’re in for an Adelina-Yuna level fight, especially since Lipinski and Weir are ... surprisingly not helpful on the technical side.
Also, I’m not willing to take anything for granted with any kind of scoring shenanigans, judges inflating scores, PCS leveling out, everyone getting a new personal best, etc. Rizzo’s PCS numbers were an absolute joke, and Kolyada was overscored in comparison, although only Kolyada “matters,” as Rizzo won’t make the cut. We’ll see what’s up when we start seeing the first group’s scores. Pretty hard to draw too many interferences from the plotz-fest that was teams, other than that deductions are the new black.