2018-19 Japanese Ladies' figure skating

[lovaticcanada]

I think Satoko will likely beat Wakaba unless Satoko gets UR calls, which depends who is on the panel and how they are feeling. Satoko will have the edge in PCS.

Marin will for sure score 2 spots due to her season ranking (and her sb score at US Classic), which gives her automatically 1 spot, and very likely 2. The only concern is where she will end up - this applies to all japanese skaters as well. Skate Canada will likely have a harsh panel on URs which benefits the Kaetlyns of the world who are never perfectly clean. Rostelecom is also not a place you would prefer to be sent to.

 

[yume]

I already feel for who will be sent to skate Canada.

I think Satoko will likely beat Wakaba unless Satoko gets UR calls, which depends who is on the panel and how they are feeling. Satoko will have the edge in PCS.

Exactly.

 

[skatenewbie]

I think last year the harshest Skate Canada have been? Before its not as harsh so idk how this year will be. It will benefit Canadian skaters and Kaetlyn 99% will win unless she meet Evgenia/Alina or bombs so bad. But getting silver is also good, last year Marin had chance for silver, she just messed up so bad her SP, if she was clean in SP she could get to podium definitely

 

[yume]

I think last year the harshest Skate Canada have been? Before its not as harsh so idk how this year will be. It will benefit Canadian skaters and Kaetlyn 99% will win unless she meet Evgenia/Alina or bombs so bad. But getting silver is also good, last year Marin had chance for silver, she just messed up so bad her SP, if she was clean in SP she could get to podium definitely

The previous year was harsh too, even if not as harsh that this season. Rika H. was savagely destroyed in the free with 2 downgrades, 4 URs calls, 1 edge call. Satoko got really low technical scores, with edge calls on flips, an invalidated step sequence, URs calls (But not to many) but thanks to her components she managed to medal. Tech panel would have destroyed her this season with her NHK skates for example.

Marin was unfortunate because not only the tech panel was harsh but judges too with PCS. I know that she had the bad luck to skate the free first but still that was harsh.

 

[ioanna]

Satoko is keeping her choreographers next season; new SP from Lori Nichol and new FS from Tom Dickson. She wants to try different styles.
https://twitter.com/figureskatingm1/status/987990186104516609

 

[yume]

Seems like Rika K. got choreo from Tom Dickson too.
https://mobile.twitter.com/rika_kihira/status/988392844908900352/photo/1

 

[combinationspin]

The previous year was harsh too, even if not as harsh that this season. Rika H. was savagely destroyed in the free with 2 downgrades, 4 URs calls, 1 edge call. Satoko got really low technical scores, with edge calls on flips, an invalidated step sequence, URs calls (But not to many) but thanks to her components she managed to medal. Tech panel would have destroyed her this season with her NHK skates for example.

Marin was unfortunate because not only the tech panel was harsh but judges too with PCS. I know that she had the bad luck to skate the free first but still that was harsh.

Damn, Skate Canada means business. Now that you mention it, I remember Satako's perplexed face in the K&C when her step sequence got invalidated. And nobody understood why. Last season, like 90% of the girls were shocked by their FP score. I wonder which girls the JSF is going to sacrifice to the Canadian skating gods next time...

 

[xeyra]

Damn, Skate Canada means business. Now that you mention it, I remember Satako's perplexed face in the K&C when her step sequence got invalidated. And nobody understood why. Last season, like 90% of the girls were shocked by their FP score. I wonder which girls the JSF is going to sacrifice to the Canadian skating gods next time...

At least we know it can't be Satoko or Wakaba, since they're in the same seed as Kaetlyn, so they can't compete in the same GP. Pray for Mai, Marin and Kaori.

 

[rikaquegira]

Kaori would be a good option right? She doesn’t usually have URs... But she does have trouble with her Lutz edge, am I correct? But so does Osmond.
Now, does Kaori get all her levels? I only watched her a few times so I don’t remember.
I think working on getting everything level 4 is so important!! You can lose many priceless points by losing levels!

 

[Spirals for Miles]

knowing my luck, Kaori will be

 

[yume]

Knowing JSF i can't expect a good draw for GPs.

For Skate Canada i would send girls who have far less chance to podium and qualify for GPF. Girls with no reputation, always killed by TP, no high potential of scoring. So Yuna Shiraiwa, Rika Hongo or Yura Matsuda.
Because no matter how good they can be, if Kaori and Mai are sent TP and judges will kill their scores. Even if they podium it will be bad for reputation

 

[Spinning]

knowing my luck, Kaori will be

Might be a good thing for Kaori. Osmond with her recent success might not be quite ready during GP. The local gals are likely to be weaker than the other GPs ( my assumption it will be either Chartrand or Austman ).

 

[lovaticcanada]

The problem is the second seeded skater at Skate Canada. 4-6 at worlds are: Carolina, Alina & Bradie.

Bradie will get Skate America (the week before), which leaves Carolina or Alina. Now, if Carolina retires, then Alina will likely go, since Gabby finishes 7th, and is next in line. And Skate Canada wants spots for Alaine/Larkyn. This would mean anyone sent to SC will have almost zero chance of qualifying.

If Carolina sticks around for another season, I could see Carolina going, since Skate Canada will likely rather take their chances with Carolina than Alina.

 

[Spirals for Miles]

But wouldn't Skate Canada want Kaetlyn, Gabby, and a 3rd one there to have a pre-nationals? I thought they'd done that in the past but maybe I'm wrong...

And Gabby's never medalled at a GP, even after her WBM. So maybe someone has a chance? But I agree with yume and that the JSF should send Rika Hongo or Yura Matsuda or Yuna Shiraiwa

 

[CanadianSkaterGuy]

Knowing JSF i can't expect a good draw for GPs.

For Skate Canada i would send girls who have far less chance to podium and qualify for GPF. Girls with no reputation, always killed by TP, no high potential of scoring. So Yuna Shiraiwa, Rika Hongo or Yura Matsuda.
Because no matter how good they can be, if Kaori and Mai are sent TP and judges will kill their scores. Even if they podium it will be bad for reputation

Aren't there like 7 or 8 Japanese skaters on the Grand Prix (many with 2 GP events)?

Eventually somebody is going to have to go to an event where they face stiffer competition.

Invariably, people will be upset if their favourite skater(s) is sent to USA/Canada/Russia, instead of France/China with no strong home skaters, or Japan where there's home ice advantage.

 

[combinationspin]

Aren't there like 7 or 8 Japanese skaters on the Grand Prix (many with 2 GP events)?

Eventually somebody is going to have to go to an event where they face stiffer competition.

Invariably, people will be upset if their favourite skater(s) is sent to USA/Canada/Russia, instead of France/China with no strong home skaters, or Japan where there's home ice advantage.

Hm, I don’t think people believe it’s the deep field that makes the competition at Skate Canada stiff ....

 

[MaiKatze]

I know this is a thread for the current japanese Ladies, but perhaps some fans from the grand trio Mao/Kanako/Akiko are still active. They've been on a TV show called 'Bokura no Jidai' (Our Generation) together and talked about their lifes, careers and skating. It's heartwarming and tearful. Tumblr User redgreenbluesforloco summarized the talk on her tumblr here. I would've posted it in the FanFest but since it concerns three japanese Ladies, I think here is a better place.

 

[CanadianSkaterGuy]

Hm, I don’t think people believe it’s the deep field that makes the competition at Skate Canada stiff ....

Well, what does stiff entail? Expecting the competition to be easy enough for a win? Even if you could argue that Skate Canada favours Osmond, last year, Japanese skaters came 5th and 6th... for example, Canadians didn't cause Honda to have a poor SP that practically took her out of podium contention - and as for the FS, fans of hers just wanted her to be marked higher, which is understandable of them. Osmond's PCS for her FS was high at 71.90 points (should have been just above 70, IMO), but it wasn't a personal best, and if you compare it to her PCS at Olympics, 75.65, it's rather appropriate actually. Not to mention, it wouldn't have affected the results of the competition.

Reigning World champion Osmond will be at 2 GP events, 2-time World champion Medvedeva will be at 2 events, World bronze medalist Gabby Daleman will be at 2 events, Olympic champion Zagitova will be at 2 events... and it's not like the JSF can send every Japanese skater to NHK/IdF/CoC/SkAm.

Mathematically, it isn't going to work out where Miyahara/Higuchi/Mihara/Honda all make the Grand Prix Final... eventually they will have to compete against Osmond/Medvedeva/Zagitova, who are big favourites regardless of where the competition is held. Yes, as I said, Russia/North American GP events are hard for Japanese skaters (not that it stopped two Japanese skaters from earning gold/silver at Skate America with strong skates). But ultimately, home ice can only go so far. Otherwise, we should all worry about any non-Japanese skaters braving the NHK field, since that competition arguably favours Japanese skaters that are on their home ice.

 

[yume]

I know this is a thread for the current japanese Ladies, but perhaps some fans from the grand trio Mao/Kanako/Akiko are still active. They've been on a TV show called 'Bokura no Jidai' (Our Generation) together and talked about their lifes, careers and skating. It's heartwarming and tearful. Tumblr User redgreenbluesforloco summarized the talk on her tumblr here. I would've posted it in the FanFest but since it concerns three japanese Ladies, I think here is a better place.

Thanks for the link. Very interesting and fun

 

[yume]

Mathematically, it isn't going to work out where Miyahara/Higuchi/Mihara/Honda all make the Grand Prix Final... eventually they will have to compete against Osmond/Medvedeva/Zagitova, who are big favourites regardless of where the competition is held. Yes, as I said, Russia/North American GP events are hard for Japanese skaters (not that it stopped two Japanese skaters from getting gold/silver at Skate America). But ultimately, home ice can only go so far. Otherwise, we should all worry about any non-Japanese skaters braving the NHK field, since that competition arguably favours Japanese skaters that are on their home ice.

Japan can at least qualify more than one lady at GPF. With a good draw even 3 girls is not that impossible. Yes it will be hard anyway, but a good draw can help. Since there is only 3 girls for the moment who are really above on potential scoring.
And Skate America is not as hard as Skate Canada. Home skaters are overscored but non-american skaters are not as scored as harsh as at Skate Canada.