What are the medal chances of the North American skaters this year?

[slutskayafan21]

Looking over the various events it is intersting to wonder what the medal opportunities for the North American skaters are. Do any of you have an opinion how much of a chance certain top North American skaters have at medals this year. This is how I see as of now, but could still change depending what we see at U.S Nationals and Europeans of course. At this point:

Pairs-I see very unlikely for a North American medal here but not impossable. Shen/Zhou are my strong favorites to win the World gold now. Zhang/Zhang are their chief rivals for the gold medal, but all the same have been so inconssitent this year they could turn in a performance like the GP final which could take them right off the podium. Pang/Tong are a big question mark, a bit of a wild card, if they are close to last years form they should win a medal of some color, if they are in their Cup of China form it could open up a podium spot for somebody else. The Germans look like the biggest threat to a Chinese sweep right now, their performances at the Cup of Russia and the GP final show them getting back on the right track. Petrova/Tikhonov are a dark horse if they end up at Worlds just because of their experience. Inoue/Baldwin, Dube/Davison, and Marcoux/Buntin are longshots to reach the podium, however if any of those can put together 2 squeeky clean performances, like Inoue/Baldwin did at Worlds last year a medal is not entirely impossable with the inconsistencies of the top teams this year. So I do think there is an outside shot of 1 North American medal here, but unlikely.

Men-Joubert and Oda and Takahashi are the 3 frontrunners now. They have all skated extremely well all year long, Joubert looks close to unbeatable at the moment although he still has to skate it at Worlds, and Oda and Takahashi become that much harder for other contenders to knock off the podium due to the home country factor which will likely give them grossly inflated GOE, PCS, and even some questionable levels, based on their scores at NHK. If Lambiel makes it to Worlds, and shows up having trained reasonably for the event, and in reasonable healthy you cant discount him still. I believe Buttle and Lysacek have fair medal chances, they arent favorites to medal but they are still in the hunt. I believe their chances are close to equal to one another, Lysacek is much more consistent in the long program and on his triple axel then Buttle, but Lysacek has short program problems often, Buttle's skating is a bit stronger in certain areas , but Lysacek still does a great job using the code and maxing out levels as well as Buttle pretty well too. Either will need a great competiton to knock off 1 of the top 3 though. I dont believe Weir or Sandhu have much of a medal shot this year though, Weir I wouldnt totally discount but his chances are lower then Buttle and Lysacek right now IMO. Sandhu has no shot this year IMO. Fair shot of sneaking out a medal for the North Americans here, better then pairs IMO.

Dance-The Bulgarians will probably defend their title. I do believe Dubreuil/Lauzon have a very good shot at either the silver or bronze based on the GP season this year though, and an outside shot at the gold. I dont believe Belbin/Agosto are favored for a medal at this point, but I still believe they are contenders, they are too talented to discount, but at this point I see the Denkova/Stayvinski, Dubreuil/Lauzon, and Domnina/Shabalin as having the inside track with Delobel/Schoenfeldner and Belbin/Agosto as the ones with a shot to break up that top 3. I dont believe the 2nd Russian or 2nd American teams have any medal hopes this year. Great shot of atleast 1 medal in dance for North America.

Ladies-Possably the 3 favorites right now are Ando, Asada, and Kim but with the health problems of Ando and Kim I would actually be very surprised if Meissner did not reach the podium again. She seems to be somebody who peaks for the big stage, she hasnt showed her best yet this year but still has only lost to Kim, Ando, or Asada and even beat Asada once. Again with Kim and Ando having health problems I would be surprised if all 3 of those Asian favorites reached the podium this year. Rochette has a medal shot but must skate 2 clean programs, something that seems unlikely for her to do. Meier and Nakano are dark horses. Great shot of atleast 1 medal in womens for North America.

 

[iloveaxel]

Too early to tell

Still a bit early to tell since athlets' conditioning is changing day by day.

In pairs, I think the chance of podium sweep by Chinese is minimum. One Chinese pair is destined to bomb.

In men's, Buttle will be the only North American man to have a shot.

In ladies, Kimmie's chance won't be higher than Kostner. Joannie is a long time.

 

[scorekeeper]

I don't think any of the pairs will make it to the podium this year. Maybe Inoue and Baldwin if they turn in two clean performances and the other top teams make mistakes.

Dubreuil & Lauzon could medal, as could Belbin & Agosto. We'll see.

Joubert, Lambiel (if he's there) and the Japanese will make it tough for Buttle and Lysacek; I also won't rule out Griazev. I don't feel very optimistic about Weir, though.

On paper, the Asian women look like the best bet for the podium, although Kim recently had a back injury and Ando has consistency problems. Two clean programs could put Meissner or even Rochette on the podium. Kostner is a wild card; Meier has an outside chance.

 

[slutskayafan21]

I guess conceivably it could be a non North American medal winning medals, unlikely in my view, but possable. Say this:

Pairs-1)Shen Zhou, 2)2nd chinese or germans, 3)3rd chinese, germans, or russians

Men-1)Joubert, 2)Japanese or Lambiel, 3)2nd Japanese or Lambiel

Dance-1)Bulgarians, 2)Russians, 3)French

Ladies-1)Asada, 2)Ando or Kim, 3)Kim or Ando or Meier


Still I am going to predict atleast 2 medals, but no more then 4 medals for North America at this years Worlds.

 

[Kwanford Wife]

I'll be shocked if North America wins more than two world medals... One in ladies going to Kimmie, one in dance to B/A and maybe a bronze in mens... Anything else is what my husband calls a pipe dream...

 

[Tigger]

What happened to Miki? First I've heard of an injury.

You know...All I can say about predictions is that you can always be surprised. At Worlds, there's usually one. I mean, who on earth would have thought Kimmie Meissner would be the reigning World Champion right now at this time last year?

One of my big worries is how will the Japanese skaters do at home. We all know what the Japanese federation is like and the pressure they put on their skaters. I have a feeling that for the singles events, the podiums very well maybe decided on whether or not the Japanese can handle the stress.

That's JMO though.

 

[Mathman]

About Miki Ando's injury, I think it was a chronic shoulder condition that she reinjured at Japanese Nationals -- so bad that she could hardly finish her program, I believe. Coupled with Yuna Kim's herniated disc, a lot will depend on who shows up healthy.

Mao Asada, on the other hand, was merely sick with the flu (along with Oda), so there is no reason not to expect her to be in top form. But she has also shown this season that she can be beaten.

For some reason Kimmie Meissner has garnered a reputation for having steady nerves and being cool under fire. In the past, however, her best performances as a senior came in situations where she had nothing to lose (2005 and 2006 U.S. Nationals and 2006 Worlds). Now as the runaway favorite at nationals and the defending champion at worlds, that's another thing altogether.

 

[R.D.]

Some folks seem to diss me for being safe, but I'm gonna be conservative again and say that there will not be more than one North American on the ladies podium.

Kidding aside- The situation is changing constantly and I don't think we can make a good call until this week's championships are over and it's February. But for NOW, with Kim (Yu-na) in the recovery stages, I'd say Asada is the favorite. I think Meissner's chances of being on the podium are improving. I still call her an underdog to win (defend), though. Possibilities? Kim, Ando. But if any of them are off, we could have a wild card (which IMO will be determined after this week's championships end) slip in. So, yes, safe for now but it's kind of too soon to tell.

For some reason Kimmie Meissner has garnered a reputation for having steady nerves and being cool under fire. In the past, however, her best performances as a senior came in situations where she had nothing to lose (2005 and 2006 U.S. Nationals and 2006 Worlds). Now as the runaway favorite at nationals and the defending champion at worlds, that's another thing altogether.

I swear- but I do think that any mistakes she makes out there on the ice have little to do with nerves or pressure- that's the difference. IMO, if she can do it in practice, she can do it in competition. If she's having problems with a jump, she'll likely make a mistake on it come competition time.

But ITA- she's never been in position of the FAVORITE and we need to see how she handles that at Nationals. But for Worlds she has the advantage of being the underdog yet again.

 

[rain]

I'll be shocked if North America wins more than two world medals... One in ladies going to Kimmie, one in dance to B/A and maybe a bronze in mens... Anything else is what my husband calls a pipe dream...

I mostly agree with you, except I think D/L have a better chance to medal in dance than B/A.

Meissner or Rochette could conceivably make the podium in ladies, but I think Meissner has the better shot.

In mens I think Buttle and Lysaceck have a shot at the podium.

In pairs M/B, I/Z and D/D all have an outside shot at a medal with great performances.

 

[slutskayafan21]

Now as the runaway favorite at nationals and the defending champion at worlds, that's another thing altogether.

She may be the defending champion at Worlds this year but she will be no skating experts favorite. Like I said she will probably be picked to finish 4th or 5th since there arent really anymore international competitions for her to prove herself this year(unless a strong field actually shows up at Four Continents). That will be good for her if she likes the underdog role and why I think she will do well at Worlds, plus being healthy.

 

[Kwanford Wife]

I mostly agree with you, except I think D/L have a better chance to medal in dance than B/A.

Meissner or Rochette could conceivably make the podium in ladies, but I think Meissner has the better shot.

In mens I think Buttle and Lysaceck have a shot at the podium.

In pairs M/B, I/Z and D/D all have an outside shot at a medal with great performances.

I'm so stupid... I forgot about D/L... I know everyone loves this team, but I just find them sooo boring & "At Last" lost its appeal for me after seeing it the second time - but at least its not last year's program, so that's a good thing...

ITA about Meissner, not so much about Rochette... and if Buttle makes the podium with a fall on a quad attempt, I'll be done w/ him for the duration... But of course, I shall root for Eman as usual while trying to keep my expectations reasonably low...

 

[Tigger]

Thanks for the Miki info Mathman. Yi yi yi...From all the injuries I've heard about over the years, I'm not sure which is the more painful. Doing something big time to your shoulder or doing something big time to your ankle. It's a toss up from what I've been told.

Hope she has a speedy recovery. And after what was a very sucessful comeback for Miki so far this season too.

 

[R.D.]

But Ando should make it to Tokyo right?