2018-19 U.S. Ladies' figure skating | Page 198 | Golden Skate

2018-19 U.S. Ladies' figure skating

So are we really thinking we will see Mirai at Nationals? And if so, in what capacity?

I'm only saying this because I just saw an Instagram post from Mirai saying that she's "finally" back on her skates after a "hiatus." https://www.instagram.com/p/BrXzZ9slfY-/

Which just makes me question if she has been training.
 
Mirai and Ashley are appearing in the SOI Lake Placid show on 12/30 so they both have to be in good enough shape to do that. Otherwise I don't expect either of them to be competing at Nationals.
 
That's an unfair characterization of Ashley Wagner. Why do you have to be mean about it? You weren't inside her head and have no idea of her motivations and feelings.

As a matter of fact, Ashley has said that being at the Olympics was very hard on her emotionally. As anyone who thinks twice would know. But she kept her commitments.

I love how you don't quote my ENTIRE post. If you go back to my post I commented that I was talking only about how Mirai might have perceived it from the outside not necessarily the reasons Ashley had for doing it. The comment was about the situation not about Ashley's character and motivations.

Don't cherry pick things to make your post seem more righteous.
 
I love how you don't quote my ENTIRE post. If you go back to my post I commented that I was talking only about how Mirai might have perceived it from the outside not necessarily the reasons Ashley had for doing it. The comment was about the situation not about Ashley's character and motivations.

Don't cherry pick things to make your post seem more righteous.

That wasn't my motivation. But I'll take your words into consideration in future, and I appreciate your clarification. I still don't like your original choice of words, and if you've read the rest of the thread, you can probably see why. Some people (not necessarily you) routinely use ugly, insinuating, insulting language when talking about Ashley. Those of us who love and respect Ashley have to speak up.
 
What you're saying is the judges should judge based on "reputation scoring", instead of an actual performance.

I strongly disagree. I think the reputational scoring (and resulting enormous bias, and perception of crooked judging!) is the main reason why the fans have been leaving this sport in droves.

Scores based on reputation, scores to promote Fed's favorites - herein lies THE ROT at the heart of ISU and national federations.

As a casual observer, I don't give a flying fig about the Fed's preferences, or the judges darlings, or a skater defying expectations due to a particularly good or a bad day and thus inconveniencing a preferred narrative... However, I do care deeply about fairness.

When I see that judging, for some inexplicable reason, is not in fact based on the day of the performance, AND ONLY on the day of performance, but rather on "reputation" - which often means some super-inflated (or super-depressed) prior "established" scores - I don't get it. What is it - public sport, or a private corrupt club?

Why do some skaters receive higher scores than others day in and day out? It's not about reputation, it's about certain qualities such as speed or flow or program composition.

The USFS ignores all of these. Their PCS are basically based on who skated cleanly. Which fundamentally is fine, but their is fine line between rewarding quality programs versus only looking at who skated cleanly. This puts all of our skaters on edge, and does no good for anyone.

As an example, if Starr Andrews skated cleanly and Bradie made a couple of mistakes (with an overall program that would still beat Starr internationally), Starr would win and be sent to worlds. The judges would ignore all of the qualities Bradie has been getting higher scores than Starr to begin with, and we would sending someone with much less scoring potential. Of course this is not the situation this year probably but it is not very conducive to selecting the best team.

On the other extreme, there are some countries (Canada for one) who prop up their favorite skaters to extreme extents, and although I'm not saying that kind of biased judging is good, it basically helps them choose the team with the highest scoring potential, each time.
 
Just saw Mirai Nagasu’s Instagram story and it says “can’t wait to see you again on Jan. 22-27”

Could this mean she’ll compete at nationals?
 
The USFS ignores all of these. Their PCS are basically based on who skated cleanly. Which fundamentally is fine, but their is fine line between rewarding quality programs versus only looking at who skated cleanly. This puts all of our skaters on edge, and does no good for anyone.

As an example, if Starr Andrews skated cleanly and Bradie made a couple of mistakes (with an overall program that would still beat Starr internationally), Starr would win and be sent to worlds. The judges would ignore all of the qualities Bradie has been getting higher scores than Starr to begin with, and we would sending someone with much less scoring potential. Of course this is not the situation this year probably but it is not very conducive to selecting the best team.

I think what you're saying is generally the case, but scores at Nationals are always bound to be closer. Let's say skater A is the best in the world, and skater J is the 10th best. Internationally, skaters B through I (ranked 2nd-9th) usually score between A and J, so there's always a nice margin between the two. If A and J are the top two skaters nationally, their skill level is going to look a lot closer because they're the top two names in a nationals field where the talent level varies widely. A 10 point PCS margin between first and second, for example, is a lot when the skill level drops drastically after J.
 
Why do some skaters receive higher scores than others day in and day out? It's not about reputation, it's about certain qualities such as speed or flow or program composition.

Yes, those things are very important in skating scoring.

The USFS ignores all of these.

I disagree that is true. How else would skaters who exemplify these qualities receive higher scores day in and day out if the judges they compete in front of many of those days ignore those qualities?

As an example, if Starr Andrews skated cleanly and Bradie made a couple of mistakes (with an overall program that would still beat Starr internationally), Starr would win and be sent to worlds. The judges would ignore all of the qualities Bradie has been getting higher scores than Starr to begin with, and we would sending someone with much less scoring potential.

You're making up a scenario that hasn't actually happened and then damning your imaginary US judges for your imagined scenario. Why not wait and see what really happens first?

With IJS, it's important to keep in mind:

1) Judges don't necessarily know how their GOEs and PCS will interact with the base values to produce final results. They might think something like "Skater B had lower jump content than Skater A and will probably have significantly lower base value, but the quality on many of those elements was so much better than I've justifiably given higher GOEs, and I also believe that B deserves significantly higher scores on all the program components. If that puts B ahead of A despite the lower difficulty, that's fine with me -- I thought B skated better overall."
But if B lost technical points in more areas than just jump content, A might end up coming out ahead of B on the strength of the TES despite judges scoring B significantly higher in the areas they have control of.

2) The judges don't have enough information to keep track of all the math necessary to determine definitively how they're ranking the skaters. In addition to doing the actual jobs they're tasked with (scoring each element GOE and each component according to the guidelines), they would also need to memorize the Scale of Values including the values of underrotated jumps and each level of non-jump elements and the prorated GOE values for each, and they would need to call/guess the levels of the non-jump elements for themselves since they aren't shown what the tech panel calls nor do they see the TES tracker shown on TV, and they would also need to add in the PCS, factored by 0.8 or 1.6 for ladies and pairs but by 1.0 and 2.0 for men.
I'm sure experienced judges who mainly judge juniors and seniors can estimate the elements and factors most used at those levels, but I'm also sure that they don't have time figure out exactly how many points Skater B would need to earn in GOEs and TES to outscore Skater A. So even if they were specifically trying to manipulate the scores to get a particular result rather than just scoring each element and component as they see it, sometimes they would miscalculate.

3) The simple number of mistakes is less relevant than the kind of mistakes. E.g., popping a jump to a single will usually lose more points than falling on a fully rotated triple. Doubling a jump that needs to be triple in a short program is more costly than falling on a triple. Stumbling on the change of foot in a combination spin is more costly than stumbling on the exit. Etc. But in some cases, a costly error or costly lowering of content in terms of base value may have little effect on the program components, whereas a more visibly disruptive error might lose more in PCS than it does in TES.

Also, more and more, the International Committee has the authority to choose a world or Olympic or other team that does not strictly match the order of finish at Nationals. Which gives judges more freedom to mark each performance as they perceive it on the day without trying to manipulate who should be sent to the big event.
 
Also, more and more, the International Committee has the authority to choose a world or Olympic or other team that does not strictly match the order of finish at Nationals. Which gives judges more freedom to mark each performance as they perceive it on the day without trying to manipulate who should be sent to the big event.

Still, I do think there was intent to manipulate the outcome at 2018 Nationals between Karen and Ashley. The tech panel very clearly judged Karen more harshly than Ashley when it came to jump rotation. OTOH, the judging panel did seem to inflate Karen's PCS margin over Ashley in a way that wouldn't reflect how they'd score internationally. I think the placements reasonably could have gone either way, but the scoring looked more like each judge and tech panelist was pushing their preferred outcome rather than judging the programs as skated.
 

Say there are two skaters skater A and skater B. Skater A is a top ranked skater, skater B is a mediocre skater on the world stage getting much lower PCS.

Skater A makes a few small mistakes on their program, and skater B skates cleanly. Skater A obviously has better flow, speed, etc.

If this were an international competition, A would beat B in technical elements, program components, AND vastly in overall score. At US Nationals skater B would get higher TES AND PCS. This scenario has happened many times. If you want examples, I am glad to list them.

Of course the judges can definitely rank the skaters in terms of scoring, just score the skaters you want to score higher on an easier scale. This is not hard.

Another horrible issue with nationals scoring is that START ORDER has a HUGE impact on your score. If you are ranked lowly in the short, your free skate program PCS can suffer by more than 10 points. Another example that the judges are just looking for temporary form instead of actual PCS quality. Nationals judges have no actual idea how to score PCS other than by how cleanly you skate and your start order. Just look at Nationals scores from last year... (Look at how much Max Aaron's PCS suffered in the long for skating early...more than 10 points! Look at how Tessa Hong got a 60 PCS for a complete bomb in 2017 because she was skating late, and got a 52 PCS for skating better last year)
 
Why do some skaters receive higher scores than others day in and day out? It's not about reputation, it's about certain qualities such as speed or flow or program composition.

The USFS ignores all of these. Their PCS are basically based on who skated cleanly. Which fundamentally is fine, but their is fine line between rewarding quality programs versus only looking at who skated cleanly. This puts all of our skaters on edge, and does no good for anyone.

As an example, if Starr Andrews skated cleanly and Bradie made a couple of mistakes (with an overall program that would still beat Starr internationally), Starr would win and be sent to worlds. The judges would ignore all of the qualities Bradie has been getting higher scores than Starr to begin with, and we would sending someone with much less scoring potential. Of course this is not the situation this year probably but it is not very conducive to selecting the best team.

On the other extreme, there are some countries (Canada for one) who prop up their favorite skaters to extreme extents, and although I'm not saying that kind of biased judging is good, it basically helps them choose the team with the highest scoring potential, each time.

That's not true. If Starr has a clean skate and Bradie has a mixed skate Bradie would be her soundly. It's been happening that way for eons. The people that have scored the best will get the best inflation. Which is why in 2016, both Gracie and Ashley had these massive scores SP acores evne though Gracie popped a jump and Ashley fell, they both scored higher than anyone but Polina. When Polina skates Clean, Gracie still beat her soundly. USFS has their favorites before they walk in the door. Last year before nationals, USFS probably ranked the men's Olympic team they wanted like:

1. Nathan (duh)
2. Adam (2 GP silvers and two trips to the GPF in a row.)
3. Jason (GP silver and GPF)
4. Max (GP Bronze)
5. Vincent US silver medal and Junior Worls Champ

Is there any surprise at after th SP, both Adam and Jason acores were 2nd and 3rd? If they both hadn't botched their FS, they both would've made the podium and gone to the Olympics.

The way the ranking is now, Bradie is pretty much guaranteed to have her score inflated enough to beat everyone. Just like last year. Mariah will have an inflated score as well, just not as big as Bradie's. Ting will have a small inflation. Alysa will get none, because they don't need her to "win" anything this year. Everyone else will get a small bump, but not enough to challenge Bradie's spot.

A clean skate by a lower ranked skater rarely makes a dent in the higher standings. In 2015, Mariah skated clean and was sixth. Same with Tyler the next year. And Starr the last year. If USFS doesn't want you on the podium, you won't be there. Ross just happened to get lucky, because they weren't expecting both Adam and Jason to fall apart.
 
The tech panel very clearly judged Karen more harshly than Ashley when it came to jump rotation. OTOH, the judging panel did seem to inflate Karen's PCS margin over Ashley in a way that wouldn't reflect how they'd score internationally. I think the placements reasonably could have gone either way, but the scoring looked more like each judge and tech panelist was pushing their preferred outcome rather than judging the programs as skated.

So you think that all three (or at least two) members of the tech panel had one agenda/preferred outcome and all nine judges had an opposite agenda?

Say there are two skaters skater A and skater B. Skater A is a top ranked skater, skater B is a mediocre skater on the world stage getting much lower PCS.

Skater A makes a few small mistakes on their program, and skater B skates cleanly. Skater A obviously has better flow, speed, etc.

If this were an international competition, A would beat B in technical elements, program components, AND vastly in overall score. At US Nationals skater B would get higher TES AND PCS. This scenario has happened many times. If you want examples, I am glad to list them.

Sure, if you like.

I haven't been to Nationals in many years, so I will have to take your word on speed, flow, etc., assuming you were there. I could give some different examples from the Nationals I did attend in 6.0 days.

Do you see similar patterns in the judging men vs. women?

Of course the judges can definitely rank the skaters in terms of scoring, just score the skaters you want to score higher on an easier scale. This is not hard.

Another horrible issue with nationals scoring is that START ORDER has a HUGE impact on your score. If you are ranked lowly in the short, your free skate program PCS can suffer by more than 10 points.

For better or for worse, that can be true at all competitions, not just US Nationals. On the GP and at ISU senior championships, the short programs are seeded so the skate order effect can carry through both programs. But there can also be exceptions.

Nationals judges have no actual idea how to score PCS other than by how cleanly you skate and your start order.

Some Nationals judges are also international judges. Do you think they have an actual idea?

Another thing I've noticed over the years is that international judges seem to put a lot of weight on sheer speed, whereas US judges in general have seemed to tend to value edge quality and precision more. And at times there may be certain preferences about body positions in spins, etc., that may be less shared by the rest of the world.

It may not be so much that US national judges have "no actual idea" how to judge PCS, but rather that they have different ideas than judges from other countries. And of course each individual judge might have different personal pet peeves or favorite qualities that they give higher value to than other judges even from the same country with the same level of training.
 
Congratulations to Gabbie Izzo, who has been admitted to Harvard. :bow: :cool:



Just saw Mirai Nagasu’s Instagram story and it says “can’t wait to see you again on Jan. 22-27”

Could this mean she’ll compete at nationals?

What I am seeing is that Mirai reposted an Instastory from Little Caesars Arena -- in which Little Caesars Arena (as opposed to Mirai herself) said that LCA cannot wait to "welcome you [Mirai] back" on those dates.

Which leaves some ambiguity in my mind as to whether Mirai will be a competitor or whether she will be present in another capacity.

Over the past few months, there have been Instastory posts (from Mirai and from other accounts) showing her on ice at the World Arena. (Also at the Air Force Academy rink, IIRC.) So I do believe she has been training (although I do not know for what) -- at least until she had that ginormous blister.

I do not feel certain yet that she plans to compete at Nationals, but I am intrigued by the possibility. :popcorn:
 
As an example, if Starr Andrews skated cleanly and Bradie made a couple of mistakes (with an overall program that would still beat Starr internationally), Starr would win and be sent to worlds. The judges would ignore all of the qualities Bradie has been getting higher scores than Starr to begin with, and we would sending someone with much less scoring potential. Of course this is not the situation this year probably but it is not very conducive to selecting the best team.

I don't think that is a good example. Starr is a very weak skater to be in seniors. SS need a ton of work, her jumps too. Bradie may not be Zagitova but she's on an entire higher level than Starr. Starr would not even be competitive internationally if she skated Juniors.
 
I’m resigned to this being the most boring ladies’ nationals (and really overall in all disciplines) since the days of Rachael Flatt and Emily Hughes.

I disagree with those who say that a clean slate by a less known skater is generally not rewarded at nationals. If that were the case Polina and Karen would never have become they figures they did during the Ashley/Gracie era. Starr didn’t get a massive score last year simply because clean or not, she was less compelling than others.

This year it is probably more likely than ever that new or less known skaters will get big scores because everyone is eager for a new hope for US figure skating. Bradie and Mariah are old news (even though Bradie has only been around for a year, it feels like she’s already done about as well as she is likely too).

I predict that if Alysa or Ting do well they will be scored very well. To the extent there is any “fed” influence, it would make sense to start building those girls’ reputations as serious competitors. If they are scored behind Bradie and Mariah, who are only worlds medal contenders in nuclear disaster-type scenarios, what reason do international judges have to take them seriously?
 
Virtually no sport is immune from reputational advantages. Team sport fans would love to tell you how 6 time such and such Stanley Cup Champions don't get penalties called as often because they are big. Stars, as in basketball, football, etc, seem to get away with more than Player Nobody. Look at the cheating that the Patriots may or may not get away with based on their winning ways. That's why I'm always surprised when people blame figure skating's falling revenues on perceived judging controversies. Sports fans don't tune out for that reason. Figure skaters have been alleged to have been "held up" since I began watching in 1968. And for older fans, don't forget the old "Soviet bloc." I might argue that having stars in a sport are good for bringing out the ticket buyers, and stars sometimes need a little support. I'm not arguing that, but I think an argument could be made.

You make excellent points. (And don't even get me started on the Patriots, LOL! :dev2: )

It's just sad though, when merit is not rewarded, for whatever reason. It seems figure skating is especially prone to biases, and it's disheartening. It's bad enough international competitions can feel crooked, the least USFS could do is set an example of what not to do.

It's nice to have "stars" to root for, but if the scores are always inflated for some and depressed for others, are we sure they are the "stars" we deserve? Maybe there were others, who dropped out (or their parents made them drop out) when they saw that the game is rigged and the odds are not in their favor?

Such biases just seem to stand against everything we should strive for. A fair play, for starters.
 
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