2018-19 U.S. Ladies' figure skating

[drivingmissdaisy]

So you think that all three (or at least two) members of the tech panel had one agenda/preferred outcome and all nine judges had an opposite agenda?

The detailed marks are available here: https://www.usfigureskating.org/leaderboard/results/2018/26192/results.html

I do think the tech panel was much harder on Karen. Every close call went against her. Ashley's only deductions from the panel came on the pass that wasn't clean in her program. A few of the judges look like they preferred Ashley, but most had Karen about even, or ahead, on PCS. I don't think this would be the case if the judges really believed that Ashley's execution (one pass with deduction) was that much better than Karen's (four passes with deductions). Of course if any of us were Ashley we'd be mad if we were beaten by a program with that many mistakes by a skater we always get higher PCS scores than. I just don't think the scores reflected what actually happened on the ice.

 

[bobbob]

Sure, if you like.

I haven't been to Nationals in many years, so I will have to take your word on speed, flow, etc., assuming you were there. I could give some different examples from the Nationals I did attend in 6.0 days.

Do you see similar patterns in the judging men vs. women?

This overemphasis on start/order and cleanliness over actual skating quality applies for all disciplines...here are just a few examples...

For Ladies: I would say one of the worst examples was Polina Edmunds in 2014. An unheralded junior skater (who fell in her free skate) was given HIGHER PCS than recent Grand Prix Final medalist Ashley Wagner; Ashley was averaging a whopping 15 points higher PCS in the free skate alone internationally (65 vs 50). Polina's inexplicable placement was really what robbed Mirai of her Olympic chance in 2014, and also gave Ashley bad press. Ashley doesn't have the best skating skills, but when compared to Polina in all aspects in PCS she was in a completely different league. Polina in 2016, Karen Chen in 2017 were other examples--just because Polina and Karen skated cleanly does not mean they should get 10 points more than their international GP PCS scores (Ashley's dropped from her gp scores in both instances); the flow and skating skills still aren't there, even if you skate clean.

For Mens: I guess nothing that affected top podium positions of late because Nathan has been quite consistent in his top performance, but the sudden ups of Max Aaron are an example of this. Let's be honest--Max's skating skills and flow and performance quality pretty much stayed the same from 2012-2018, but his PCS was a complete roller-coaster at nationals.

For Pairs: Kayne and O'Shea over Alexa and Chris in 2016 was a pretty perfect example of this. Kayne and O'Shea got HIGHER PCS than Alexa and Chris; Alexa and Chris had much better pair elements, skating skills, flow, pretty much every aspect of PCS by far, and were getting far far higher scores in the international circuit, but botched a couple of SBS jumps and were buried. Another obvious one was in 2014, where a clean but extremely slow Zhang/Bartholomay inexplicably were placed ahead of the much stronger Caydee Denney / John Coughlin who were stronger objectively in every single aspect, even at Nationals, and were averaging like 10 points higher in PCS alone internationally (with much better results in head to heads), and Z/B were sent to the Olympics.

For better or for worse, that can be true at all competitions, not just US Nationals. On the GP and at ISU senior championships, the short programs are seeded so the skate order effect can carry through both programs. But there can also be exceptions.



Some Nationals judges are also international judges. Do you think they have an actual idea?

Another thing I've noticed over the years is that international judges seem to put a lot of weight on sheer speed, whereas US judges in general have seemed to tend to value edge quality and precision more. And at times there may be certain preferences about body positions in spins, etc., that may be less shared by the rest of the world.

It may not be so much that US national judges have "no actual idea" how to judge PCS, but rather that they have different ideas than judges from other countries. And of course each individual judge might have different personal pet peeves or favorite qualities that they give higher value to than other judges even from the same country with the same level of training.

It is much worse at US Nationals, trust me. At international competitions, the differences may be a couple of points. At nationals, a skater's PCS might be affected by more than 10 points in the free skate if they skate early.

You do bring a good point that national's judges may use different criteria than international judges. But that is a terrible thing because Nationals is to choose skaters to go to international comps, where they will face international judges. We want to choose the skaters with the best chances of succeeding in those competitions.

 

[SnowWhite]

Still, I do think there was intent to manipulate the outcome at 2018 Nationals between Karen and Ashley. The tech panel very clearly judged Karen more harshly than Ashley when it came to jump rotation. OTOH, the judging panel did seem to inflate Karen's PCS margin over Ashley in a way that wouldn't reflect how they'd score internationally. I think the placements reasonably could have gone either way, but the scoring looked more like each judge and tech panelist was pushing their preferred outcome rather than judging the programs as skated.

The detailed marks are available here: https://www.usfigureskating.org/leaderboard/results/2018/26192/results.html

I do think the tech panel was much harder on Karen. Every close call went against her. Ashley's only deductions from the panel came on the pass that wasn't clean in her program. A few of the judges look like they preferred Ashley, but most had Karen about even, or ahead, on PCS. I don't think this would be the case if the judges really believed that Ashley's execution (one pass with deduction) was that much better than Karen's (four passes with deductions). Of course if any of us were Ashley we'd be mad if we were beaten by a program with that many mistakes by a skater we always get higher PCS scores than. I just don't think the scores reflected what actually happened on the ice.

The tech panel was mostly hard on Karen in the FS. Do you think the tech panel was perhaps reacting to the judging of the SP? Ashley did have lower SP PCS than at either of her GP events, even though those weren't her best skates, so the judges preference was clear. If the tech panel disagreed with what happened in the SP, they could have been trying to balance it out.

I'm not saying that's what was happening at all, just a thought that popped into my head one of the other times this discussion came up. I haven't rewatched US Nationals, but my personal feeling at the time was that I wasn't sure which way it should go, but that the judging/tech scoring was just weird for the ladies.

 

[Mathman]

For Pairs: Kayne and O'Shea over Alexa and Chris in 2016 was a pretty perfect example of this.

I was with you up to that sentence. But Kayne and O'Shea in 2016 and Zhang and Bartholomay in 2014 were two of the most thrilling and satisfying U.S. pairs skates ever. I gave K&S 9.0 in Thrilling and 9.50 in Satisfying, and Z&B 9.75 and 9.50 the otjer way around. :yes:

... Nationals is to choose skaters to go to international comps ...

I disagree. I think Nationals is to crown a national champion.

 

[chuckm]

This overemphasis on start/order and cleanliness over actual skating quality applies for all disciplines...here are just a few examples...

For Ladies: I would say one of the worst examples was Polina Edmunds in 2014. An unheralded junior skater (who fell in her free skate) was given HIGHER PCS than recent Grand Prix Final medalist Ashley Wagner; Ashley was averaging a whopping 15 points higher PCS in the free skate alone internationally (65 vs 50). Polina's inexplicable placement was really what robbed Mirai of her Olympic chance in 2014, and also gave Ashley bad press. Ashley doesn't have the best skating skills, but when compared to Polina in all aspects in PCS she was in a completely different league. Polina in 2016, Karen Chen in 2017 were other examples--just because Polina and Karen skated cleanly does not mean they should get 10 points more than their international GP PCS scores (Ashley's dropped from her gp scores in both instances); the flow and skating skills still aren't there, even if you skate clean.

First of all, Polina Edmunds wasn't exactly 'an unknown junior skater'. She had made it to the JGPF that season, one of the very few US skaters to get there.

Let's look at the Nationals:
SP-TES:
1. 40.34 Gracie-3z+3t, 3lo, 2a
2. 37.14 Polina-3z+3t, 3f, 2a
3. 36.97 Mirai-3t+3t, 3lo, 2a
4: 32.51 Ashley-3f+2t (-GOE), 3lo, 2a
SP-PCS:
1. 32.20 Ashley
2. 31.78 Gracie
3. 29.61 Polina
4. 28.57 Mirai
Scores:
1. 72.12 Gracie
2. 66.75 Polina
3. 65.44 Mirai
4. 64.71 Ashley

The short program is a technical program, and it was not unreasonable for Polina to place 2nd as she, with Gracie, had the highest TES. The SP scores from 2nd to 4th were very close.

FREESKATE TES
1. 71.37 Gracie 3z+3t, 2a+3t, 3lo, 3fe, 3z, 3s+2t+2t, 2a
2. 66.21 Polina 3z+3t, 3f+1lo+3s, 2a, 3fe↓, 3z, 3lo+2t, fall
3. 65.62 Mirai 3f<+2t, 2a+3t, 3z, 2lo+2t+2lo, 3f, 3lo, 2a, time violation
5. 58.48 Ashley 3f+3t<↓, 2a, 3s, 3lo^2a, 3ze, 3lo<↓, 3f+2t, 2 falls

FREESKATE PCS
1. 68.30 Gracie
2. 61.67 Polina
3. 61.55 Ashley
4. 60.68 Mirai

There was a 0.12 difference between Polina's PCS and Ashley's. But Ashley had a very messy FS and in fact was placed behind Samantha Cesario in the FS.

OVERALL SCORE:
1. 211.69 Gracie
2. 193.63 Polina
3. 190.74 Mirai
4. 182.72 Ashley

Looking at the scores, it makes one wonder why Ashley was chosen for Sochi instead of Mirai. But Ashley had made the US podium and the GPF multiple times in the preceding seasons, and was a GPF medalwinner, while Mirai struggled in both previous Nationals and the GP. THAT was why Ashley went to Sochi and not Mirai. Polina's placement had nothing to do with it---she just skated very well and earned her silver medal.

As for Ashley's higher international PCS scores, Ashley skated much better in her GP events than she did at Nationals 2014. If she had skated the way she did at Nationals in the GP, her TES and PCS would have been considerably lower, and she wouldn't have made the Final.

 

[drivingmissdaisy]

The tech panel was mostly hard on Karen in the FS. Do you think the tech panel was perhaps reacting to the judging of the SP? Ashley did have lower SP PCS than at either of her GP events, even though those weren't her best skates, so the judges preference was clear. If the tech panel disagreed with what happened in the SP, they could have been trying to balance it out.

I'm not saying that's what was happening at all, just a thought that popped into my head one of the other times this discussion came up. I haven't rewatched US Nationals, but my personal feeling at the time was that I wasn't sure which way it should go, but that the judging/tech scoring was just weird for the ladies.

In the LP, Ashley skated first. When Karen took the ice, it was clear she had an opportunity to overtake Ashley and, jump by jump, it looked like Chen would do so and not come undone as she had in the past. All of Karen's jumps may have been judged the way they were by a tech panel in another event, but under that same level of scrutiny more of Ashley's would have been <. I'm sure the judges and tech panel members are all huge skating fans and of course have their favorites. However, they have an obligation to evaluate skaters fairly and by the same standard, and I think they failed at that in this event.

 

[bobbob]

First of all, Polina Edmunds wasn't exactly 'an unknown junior skater'. She had made it to the JGPF that season, one of the very few US skaters to get there.

Thanks for bringing up the GPF. Polina was of the very few US skaters to make the Junior GPF. Ashley was the ONLY US skater to make the SENIOR GPF. Big difference... These were the PCS markings there...
Polina Edmunds 50.56 (no falls, clean skate) Ashley Wagner 64.41 (one fall)
Nationals
Polina Edmunds 61.67 (one fall) Ashley Wagner 61.55 (two falls)
Now it is true Polina was a Junior and Ashley was a Senior. But the difference is not that huge, and plus, if Polina were a senior, well, she wouldn't even have been there. But Polina's PCS went up 11 points with one extra fall, and Ashley's went DOWN three points with one extra fall. This is a 14 point swing in the free skate ALONE.
And from a skating perspective, Ashley was better in all categories. Ashley isn't exactly the strongest in SS or TR among elite skaters, but watch Polina's program...it wasn't elite level figure skating, let's just put it that way. My point is nationals judges completely overemphasize starting order and one day cleanliness over skating quality. And this is really detrimental to forming international teams because skating quality stays with you, starting order and cleanliness do not.

And to clarify my position, this is not necessarily in support of Ashley...I just think the scoring system is totally messed up. I don't agree with Ashley getting a whopping 75 PCS the next year either just because she went clean and had a good start order. Cleanliness is overvalued, making a mistake on ONE element should not affect your PCS by 10 points.

 

[bobbob]

I was with you up to that sentence. But Kayne and O'Shea in 2016 and Zhang and Bartholomay in 2014 were two of the most thrilling and satisfying U.S. pairs skates ever. I gave K&S 9.0 in Thrilling and 9.50 in Satisfying, and Z&B 9.75 and 9.50 the otjer way around. :yes:



I disagree. I think Nationals is to crown a national champion.

I have to disagree...Z/B and Kayne O'Shea may have delivered clean and really satisfying programs, but the quality of their pair skating was nowhere near D/B and S-K/K, respectively. Unfortunately thrilling and satisfying are not PCS categories , while skating skills and transitions definitely are.

Nationals is to crown a national champion, I mean there's obviously no way to disagree with that. But my point is it is in the USFS's best interest to emulate international scoring style because a main additional purpose of Nationals is to determine international assignments.

 

[frida80]

This overemphasis on start/order and cleanliness over actual skating quality applies for all disciplines...here are just a few examples...

For Ladies: I would say one of the worst examples was Polina Edmunds in 2014. An unheralded junior skater (who fell in her free skate) was given HIGHER PCS than recent Grand Prix Final medalist Ashley Wagner; Ashley was averaging a whopping 15 points higher PCS in the free skate alone internationally (65 vs 50). Polina's inexplicable placement was really what robbed Mirai of her Olympic chance in 2014, and also gave Ashley bad press. Ashley doesn't have the best skating skills, but when compared to Polina in all aspects in PCS she was in a completely different league. Polina in 2016, Karen Chen in 2017 were other examples--just because Polina and Karen skated cleanly does not mean they should get 10 points more than their international GP PCS scores (Ashley's dropped from her gp scores in both instances); the flow and skating skills still aren't there, even if you skate clean.

For Mens: I guess nothing that affected top podium positions of late because Nathan has been quite consistent in his top performance, but the sudden ups of Max Aaron are an example of this. Let's be honest--Max's skating skills and flow and performance quality pretty much stayed the same from 2012-2018, but his PCS was a complete roller-coaster at nationals.

For Pairs: Kayne and O'Shea over Alexa and Chris in 2016 was a pretty perfect example of this. Kayne and O'Shea got HIGHER PCS than Alexa and Chris; Alexa and Chris had much better pair elements, skating skills, flow, pretty much every aspect of PCS by far, and were getting far far higher scores in the international circuit, but botched a couple of SBS jumps and were buried. Another obvious one was in 2014, where a clean but extremely slow Zhang/Bartholomay inexplicably were placed ahead of the much stronger Caydee Denney / John Coughlin who were stronger objectively in every single aspect, even at Nationals, and were averaging like 10 points higher in PCS alone internationally (with much better results in head to heads), and Z/B were sent to the Olympics.




It is much worse at US Nationals, trust me. At international competitions, the differences may be a couple of points. At nationals, a skater's PCS might be affected by more than 10 points in the free skate if they skate early.

You do bring a good point that national's judges may use different criteria than international judges. But that is a terrible thing because Nationals is to choose skaters to go to international comps, where they will face international judges. We want to choose the skaters with the best chances of succeeding in those competitions.

Here what happened with Polina. They wanted her to go the Olympics. Just that simple. She made the JGPF, she had a 3Lz+3T and a 3F+Eu+3S. USFS wanted to send three ladies with impressive content and Polina was one of them. So they inflated her PCS score to insure no one but Ashley and Gracie could beat her. What they didn't expect was for Ashley to bomb. Just like they didn't expect both Adam and Jason to bomb. The inflation was less about beating Ashley's score but all about beating ladies like Samantha, Christina, and yeah Mirai.

I agree that Ashley's PCS score was too low, but she has a lot of errors in her FS and the performance was falling apart by the end. She was so devastated. However they judges could not have know that Mirai would skate clean just a few minutes later. She bombed nationals twice in a row, ranking seventh twice. How were they to know she'd stand up to the pressure and try her best to win a trip to the Olympics again?

You'd think they'd learn four years later that you should just name the team before the event or simply have a clear points system so everyone knows where they stand. But nope, it happened again. Adam and Jason bombed and all they inflating was for naught.

It's so obvious and so pathetic.

 

[el henry]

I apologize, I know this is the ladies’ thread, but this is the second time I’ve read a reference to “inflation” of Jason’s and Adam’s SP scores at 2018 Nats?

Excuuuuuse me? I don’t think so, Tim.

Now, carry on about the ladies

 

[bubblecherry]

I find the whole "maybe it was politics" "maybe it was reputation judging/lack of" discussion so redundant. At the end of the day during 2017 nationals, 2017 worlds & 2018 nationals, Karen was simply better than Ashley. She has better everything. Jumps, spins!!, skating skills!!, musicality, performance, programs, etc. Yes, Ashley is more consistent and you could've made a case to send her to the Olympics however arguing about the nationals scores is ridiculous. A mostly-on Karen is going to outscore a mostly-on Ashley. Deservedly so. You can say it's politicking or whatever, but it's also fair because Karen is (or shall I say was?) the better skater when they're both on.

Making an argument about Ashley being a better competitor and more consistent is different, because that's 100% true. I don't know why people can't accept that there would've been justification for them sending either Karen or Ashley.

 

[Sam L]

Has Mirai changed to Edea? I saw a pic on Insta where she’s in Edea. I thought she had custom Jacksons due to her foot being longer in one. I wonder how the Edea working out for her.

 

[klutzy]

Polina wasn't unheralded--she was the U.S. Junior Champion and won two golds in the junior grand prix competition before coming in fourth. She was a young skater who showed, early on, an ability to compete. This was born out at the Olympics where she placed in the top ten--her first international outing as a senior. After surviving puberty, she pulled off a 4CC win, won silver at Nationals again and if she hadn't been injured, gone to Worlds. Her injury was a damn shame. I expect she would have been national champion and had another go at the Olympics if she hadn't been injured.

Ashley Wagner was a fiery performer, but both she and Gracie Gold were erratic. Yes, Ashley had had better PCS scores than she did at Nationals, but she introduced a new, not particularly exciting, long program there. It wasn't her best showing.

 

[ice coverage]

Has Mirai changed to Edea? I saw a pic on Insta where she’s in Edea. I thought she had custom Jacksons due to her foot being longer in one. I wonder how the Edea working out for her.

Mirai has been in Edea since long before 2018 OWG.

It was so long ago that I have had to refresh my memory, but IIRC, she made the change soon (ETA: relatively soon) after a competition mishap with Jackson.
(IIRC: Ripped Jackson boot at 2016 Nats? Which was not her first issue with Jackson in competition?)

ETA:

Edea clearly seen in this 2016 NHK Trophy photo of Mirai, for example:

https://www.gettyimages.ca/detail/n...etes-in-the-ladies-short-news-photo/625658858 (2016 Nov)​

Per her fan thread, it was her first competition in Edea.​

---

ETA:

BTW, I don't think it has been mentioned yet that a clip of Mirai was included in Google's two-minute "Year In Search 2018" video.

In a year of ups and downs, the world searched for "good" more than ever before — according to Google Trends. From the epic headlines to the everyday moments, here’s to all the good that people discovered in 2018.

https://youtu.be/6aFdEhEZQjE?t=36 (Dec 12)​

Approx. nine million views and counting ...​

 

[Sam L]

Mirai has been in Edea since long before 2018 OWG.

It was so long ago that I have had to refresh my memory, but IIRC, she made the change soon (ETA: relatively soon) after a competition mishap with Jackson.
(IIRC: Ripped Jackson boot at 2016 Nats? Which was not her first issue with Jackson in competition?)

ETA:

Edea clearly seen in this 2016 NHK Trophy photo of Mirai, for example:

https://www.gettyimages.ca/detail/n...etes-in-the-ladies-short-news-photo/625658858 (2016 Nov)​

Per her fan thread, it was her first competition in Edea.​

I swear to God something's happening with my knowledge of US skaters and their equipment. I thought Nathan Chen switched to Gold Seals when he's been in Gold Seals forever. Ok thanks.

 

[skylark]

When I posted the link to Ashley's blog before, I guess I buried the lead. So now, I thought I would highlight one of the 15 or 20 blog entries, for those who may be interested in reading it. This is a quote from an entry Ashley has called "My 5 Tips for Becoming a Self-Starter."

After my competitive career slowed down, and I wasn’t training every single day, I had the opportunity to get to know myself and what I was really like beyond the confines of my regimen and schedule. Spoiler alert: I discovered that I am lazy AF. Of course, coming off of more than two decades of rigorous work with little to no vacation time might explain a lot about the lack of motivation that I was feeling. Either way, the world kept spinning and I found myself in a position where I had to move forward, with no idea how to do that. I had to learn how to become a self-starter at the age of 27. Let me tell you, having to move forward with no idea how to do that is TERRIFYING. So, long story short, thank god you are here.
https://www.theashwagner.com/blog/2018/11/8/my-5-tips-for-becoming-a-self-starter​

Enjoy! The woman can write, and she hopes others may benefit from her struggles.

 

[chuckm]

Just one point: Under the current skating system, a clean program with well-executed jumps will always score more than a messy one because of the importance of the GOE. The PCS that Ashley so heavily depended upon might not make the difference any more. No doubt that figured in her decision not to return to competition just as much as the surge in multi-revolution jumps did.

 

[gkelly]

Just one point: Under the current skating system, a clean program with well-executed jumps will always score more than a messy one because of the importance of the GOE.

Assuming the base values are similar. A more difficult program with a few visible mistakes and -GOEs might score higher than an easier program skated clean (but perhaps not with high +GOE).

Some kinds of mistakes will lose a lot of points in all areas. Others may be very visible (e.g., turn out from a jump or break in the upper body) but have only minor negative effect on the GOEs for those elements and the PCS. Others (e.g., underrotations/downgrades or edge calls, or doubling a required triple in the SP, Zayak violation in the FS) may lose a lot of points in base value and maybe some in GOE, but not affect PCS at all or look "messy" to casual observers.

 

[drivingmissdaisy]

Others (e.g., underrotations/downgrades or edge calls, or doubling a required triple in the SP, Zayak violation in the FS) may lose a lot of points in base value and maybe some in GOE, but not affect PCS at all or look "messy" to casual observers.

Often, I feel like these mistakes that aren't visible don't impact the program by themselves, but they do reflect a skater holding back and not attacking a program. You don't usually see high PCS marks awarded to programs with a lot of < calls.

 

[Skater Boy]

First of all, Polina Edmunds wasn't exactly 'an unknown junior skater'. She had made it to the JGPF that season, one of the very few US skaters to get there.

Let's look at the Nationals:
SP-TES:
1. 40.34 Gracie-3z+3t, 3lo, 2a
2. 37.14 Polina-3z+3t, 3f, 2a
3. 36.97 Mirai-3t+3t, 3lo, 2a
4: 32.51 Ashley-3f+2t (-GOE), 3lo, 2a
SP-PCS:
1. 32.20 Ashley
2. 31.78 Gracie
3. 29.61 Polina
4. 28.57 Mirai
Scores:
1. 72.12 Gracie
2. 66.75 Polina
3. 65.44 Mirai
4. 64.71 Ashley

The short program is a technical program, and it was not unreasonable for Polina to place 2nd as she, with Gracie, had the highest TES. The SP scores from 2nd to 4th were very close.

FREESKATE TES
1. 71.37 Gracie 3z+3t, 2a+3t, 3lo, 3fe, 3z, 3s+2t+2t, 2a
2. 66.21 Polina 3z+3t, 3f+1lo+3s, 2a, 3fe↓, 3z, 3lo+2t, fall
3. 65.62 Mirai 3f<+2t, 2a+3t, 3z, 2lo+2t+2lo, 3f, 3lo, 2a, time violation
5. 58.48 Ashley 3f+3t<↓, 2a, 3s, 3lo^2a, 3ze, 3lo<↓, 3f+2t, 2 falls

FREESKATE PCS
1. 68.30 Gracie
2. 61.67 Polina
3. 61.55 Ashley
4. 60.68 Mirai

There was a 0.12 difference between Polina's PCS and Ashley's. But Ashley had a very messy FS and in fact was placed behind Samantha Cesario in the FS.

OVERALL SCORE:
1. 211.69 Gracie
2. 193.63 Polina
3. 190.74 Mirai
4. 182.72 Ashley

Looking at the scores, it makes one wonder why Ashley was chosen for Sochi instead of Mirai. But Ashley had made the US podium and the GPF multiple times in the preceding seasons, and was a GPF medalwinner, while Mirai struggled in both previous Nationals and the GP. THAT was why Ashley went to Sochi and not Mirai. Polina's placement had nothing to do with it---she just skated very well and earned her silver medal.

As for Ashley's higher international PCS scores, Ashley skated much better in her GP events than she did at Nationals 2014. If she had skated the way she did at Nationals in the GP, her TES and PCS would have been considerably lower, and she wouldn't have made the Final.

Well I am not sure what the point is talking about this now but I too will fall down the rabbit hole. I guess an argument is that Polina's pcs were too high. And just a bit lower Mirai would have been second and POlina would have been bumped by Ashley.