2018-19 Ladies' power ranking

[Nimyue]

I love Liza and agree she should score higher in components, but she’s a skater who should have higher scores in specific marks, not across the board. She’s a strong case for why component marks should vary, and I don’t mean that in a bad way.

SS: She seems to have a fair amount of speed and power, but slower than Kaori, without the depth of edge of Satoko, etc. I’d put her 0.75 behind Kaori, for example.

TR: The programme isn’t as empty as people say. She does hold the landing edge before going into some one-foot movement after jumps. It’s not exceptionally difficult content and there isn’t too much, but it’s not like she has zero transitions. I’d give Zagitova the highest mark here and have Elizaveta 1.5 to 2.0 full marks back of that.

CO: It’s not the most content-laden programme but it’s a well-composed one, with elements well distributed to take advantage of the music. If Zagitova is a 9.0, Elizaveta is an 8.25 or 8.0.

PE: As I said in the competition thread: dock her in the other components, but in terms of performance, she’s a 9.50 to a 10.0. Whatever the magical it is, she’s got it. The crowd loves her and she loves them. There’s so much expression on her face. She just has a way of convincing you to buy everything she’s selling and to pull you into the party. Deserves the highest score of anyone in this mark.

IE: There’s not much to interpret in the music, at least in terms of complexity/depth, but she is fulfilling the criteria for this component more than she’s given credit for. Complain about the arm/hand-ography, but it’s not random movement: she accentuates the music with her gestures and is absolutely channeling the sassy, flirty vibe from her face (which never really breaks character) down to her fingers. 8.50 is about what I’d give her, if I were giving Satoko a 9.25 (which I wouldn’t have for her GPF free skate performance, but as a benchmark, yeah).

I actually think Elizaveta has the x-factour, not Medvedeva. Her connection with the audience has always been a key strength. In terms of charisma, Elizaveta has that to spare, and while Mishin’s style of diluting choreo may not be everyone’s favourite, there’s no denying that Liz’s packaging, choice of music, etc., suit her perfectly. And Liz just has some natural gift to win the crowd to her side even before her music starts.

I went over the detailed marks from the GPF and was STUNNED at how much lower her PCS was from Alina. I just. can't. Her presentation is waaaay better than Alina's. I didn't pay enough attention to her program to comment on the skating skills and difficulty of turns etc. But frankly, Alina always skates folded over, her posture is terrible. Liz is confident, has great posture, and sells her program sooo much better. The only criticism I have of Liz's skating is that she has weird arms a lot. But her weird arm positions into jumps shouldn't affect her scores, but I can seem them maybe affecting her PCS. BUT her PCS scores were around 7 and 7.5 and Alina's were in the 9s. There's no way there should be that amount of spread. It's such crap, and makes me so frustrated with this sport.

 

[Metis]

I went over the detailed marks from the GPF and was STUNNED at how much lower her PCS was from Alina. I just. can't. Her presentation is waaaay better than Alina's. I didn't pay enough attention to her program to comment on the skating skills and difficulty of turns etc. But frankly, Alina always skates folded over, her posture is terrible. Liz is confident, has great posture, and sells her program sooo much better. The only criticism I have of Liz's skating is that she has weird arms a lot. But her weird arm positions into jumps shouldn't affect her scores, but I can seem them maybe affecting her PCS. BUT her PCS scores were around 7 and 7.5 and Alina's were in the 9s. There's no way there should be that amount of spread. It's such crap, and makes me so frustrated with this sport.

I’m not saying the absolute values for Zagitova are the ones I’d award, but her 9s in TR and to a lesser extent CO are pretty justifiable with good faith arguments. If I’d been judging, however, SS would have been ordered much differently — Kaori would have led that component, then Satoko and Kihira 0.25 points back, Liza 0.25-0.5 back of Rika, and Sofia and Zagitova with the same mark. (Which makes some fundamental sense: skating skills take years to develop, and the two are the same age.) In TR, the margins separating Sakamoto, Zagitova, and Satoko would be much narrower, with Liza about a full point back; on the other hand, Liza would have at least a 0.5 margin over anyone else in PE, possibly more. In the end, Kaori, Rika, Satoko, Zagitova, and Liza would be much closer in their total PCS score, but each one would have much more variance in the five components, even if the total wasn’t radically different.

Liza doesn’t have many difficult entries or exits into her elements, but she does hold the landing edge and make some gestures/steps in the direction of TR, to the point where she deserves to be docked in that component relative to some others. I wouldn’t say she’s two full points worse than Zagitova there, however, as in the GPF, I found Zagitova’s performance more laboured than usual — the transitions weren’t effortless, and at times they detracted from the performance. So Zagitova wouldn’t be getting her best TR mark for that performance, at least not from me, because while the quantity was there (and for that she should get a higher base TR score), the quality wasn’t. (I actually might give it to Sakamoto on TR, or at least have her tied with Satoko.) Neither Zagitova not Satoko brought their A-game in terms of PE and IE, so Kaori might have led in IE (just a bit above Rika), and Liza would have led in PE. Maybe I’m crazy. ¯\_(ツ)_/¯

But frankly, Alina always skates folded over, her posture is terrible.

That should lower her Skating Skills mark. While the idea of including an almost excess of transitional content is that it pays multiple dividends across PCS categories, dozens of laboured one foot turns are not a substitute for speed, power, effortless control over the blade, etc. Of all the component marks, Skating Skills tends to baffle me the most when I see judges’ scores, as it’s a technical, not artistic, assessment, and someone can be a weaker skater in terms of fundamental skating skills while also having a superbly choreographed and performed programme. ¯\_(ツ)_/¯ xINFINITY, basically.

 

[Globetrotter]

I agree that her PE may be higher. But she was slower at the begining of the program, had less steps, turns, transitions and more preparations for jumps and other elements. Generally, comparing to them, more of the time she was doing 'nothing', less time was used for performance with steps, turns or body movements (with less involvement of the whole body to filling the space around her) and less time was spent for interpretation of the music (because preparation for technical elements was longer), which all means lower marks for components.

But thats not how the components scoring reflected. SS wise, I don't think Alina is much better than her. Tuks sold the programme big time and the audience clearly love it, so I do think the PE deserves a lot more. Interpretation wise, she is no Satoko but she did what she could with the music and it did fit in with what the music called for and the gestures and arm movements were at least matching and appropriate. So I won't deny her the scores. If Alina's frenetic half finished moves are considered the highest interpretive scores, I sure as hell find it hard to believe Tuks is any poorer. Liza Tuk's component strengths and weaknesses are distinctly extreme and makes a good case of why she deserves high marks in some and low marks in others. I have her at SS 7.75, TR 7.25, PE 9.25, CO 8.00, IN 8.25; comparatively, I will have Rika at SS 8.50, TR 8.00, PE 8.50, CO 8.75, IN 8.25; Alina SS 8.00, TR 9.00, PE 7.75 (that posture....), CO 8.50, IN 8.25.

 

[Globetrotter]

I actually think Elizaveta has the x-factour, not Medvedeva. Her connection with the audience has always been a key strength. In terms of charisma, Elizaveta has that to spare, and while Mishin’s style of diluting choreo may not be everyone’s favourite, there’s no denying that Liz’s packaging, choice of music, etc., suit her perfectly. And Liz just has some natural gift to win the crowd to her side even before her music starts.

But clearly, the judges don't score so. I like Liza Tuks, she certainly can get the crowds going but Zhenya has been the one whom judges have been willing to get blown over by the past few years. It seems similar to the early years of CoP judging when Sasha Cohen will get some of the best components score despite awful basic SS - Sasha and Zhenya both has this ability to make judges "like" them and be a lot more generous and forgiving.

 

[Baron Vladimir]

But thats not how the components scoring reflected. SS wise, I don't think Alina is much better than her. Tuks sold the programme big time and the audience clearly love it, so I do think the PE deserves a lot more. Interpretation wise, she is no Satoko but she did what she could with the music and it did fit in with what the music called for and the gestures and arm movements were at least matching and appropriate. So I won't deny her the scores. If Alina's frenetic half finished moves are considered the highest interpretive scores, I sure as hell find it hard to believe Tuks is any poorer. Liza Tuk's component strengths and weaknesses are distinctly extreme and makes a good case of why she deserves high marks in some and low marks in others. I have her at SS 7.75, TR 7.25, PE 9.25, CO 8.00, IN 8.25; comparatively, I will have Rika at SS 8.50, TR 8.00, PE 8.50, CO 8.75, IN 8.25; Alina SS 8.00, TR 9.00, PE 7.75 (that posture....), CO 8.50, IN 8.25.

Well, you can use lyrical movement to interpret the music, or frenetic movement, or any kind of movements. The point is to reflect the music in some way, more time during your program is better. Alinas PCS are higher because she had more varieties in speed, blades work- steps and turns, skating on one foot and multidirectinal skating (those are integral parts of Skating Skills defined by ISU) as a much better variety in design of body movements and energy. It maybe seems frantic with close up camera shoots, but looking from the arena it is as she 'fills the space/stage/ice rink' more. Also, keep in mind that judges are looking what skaters achieved in their performances, at positive aspects of their skating. For example, if some judges dont like Alina's carriage or Liza's design of movements they just wont award that aspect, but they will give positives for another aspects of those same components which they can find. With Alina, they can just find more of those things defined by program components. EDIT: Also, just because Alina did that amount of steps, turns and body movements, that doesn't necessarily mean her TR score will be that high. You can connect the required elements with much less steps and turns and with simple body movement (like Caro for example), but the point is that elements look conected in a whole piece/pattern, that there is no interruptions or pauses or feel of emptiness between.

 

[rachno2]

1. Rika Kihira (-) - silver at Nationals, but still looking the most dominant
2. Alina Zagitova (-) - hangs on by a thread, because she has really only looked secure twice this season, and at her earliest competitions at that. Still, if she goes clean or near-clean, then the PCS will probably still keep her ahead of everyone, except for a solid Kihira. The thing is, I don't have as much confidence that she will go clean or near-clean at Europeans and Worlds, and Liza and Kaori have been progressing rather than regressing.
3. Kaori Sakamoto (+2)- the newly-crowned Japanese National Champion looks stronger with every competition, and this title should bolster her PCS scores at 4CCs (if she goes, she will have the chance to defend her title and build even more momentum) and Worlds.
4. Elizaveta Tuktamysheva (-1) - Moves down through no fault of her own. Indeed, if Tuk had competed at Nationals and placed ahead of Alina, then I would have her in second or third. Sitting out Europeans could mute her momentum, but it will give her time to fully heal going into Worlds.
5. Satoko Miyahara (-1) - She is still a reliable team member, but I fear her already low PCS will fall even more now that she is Japanese #3 and not the team leader, and her jumps will continue to be at the mercy of the technical panel. She showed determination at Nationals after her GPF disappointment, and I hope to see that same fighter at Worlds.
6. Sofia Samodurova (-) - It looks like the final Worlds spot will be contested between Konstantinova and her at Europeans. If Sonya puts forth two clean skates and medals (and Stasya is off the podium), then she will be deserving of the team, and will likely place somewhere here (or above Satoko) with her usual consistency.
7. Bradie Tennell (-)
8. Stanislava Konstantinova (new) - Being the highest-placed senior at Nationals might give her a PCS boost internationally at Europeans, but it could also add even more pressure to an already unstable competitor. In the event that she does make it to Worlds, I have her below Tennell at the moment because she is such a wild card.
9. Eunsoo Lim (-1)

Circling the top 10: Loena Hendrickx / Elizabet Tursynbaeva / Mariah Bell

 

[BillNeal]

Now that we've seen the ladies at Russian and Japanese Nationals, the reality is the Japanese look clearly ahead at this point in time versus those of the Russian seniors who competed.

Looking ahead to Euros, I think a podium sweep for the Russians is quite unlikely, as some seem to just assume. There are really 5 ladies vying for that podium. Caro is back training on the ice and has 4 weeks to prep. If she is in decent form and delivers, judges will reward her quality skating and jumps with this new GOE system. The snippets of her free program looked quite promising back in the summer. Loena is another challenger for the podium. She has not been the most consistent this season but has shown that she can deliver at Euros and Worlds. Stanislava is gaining momentum but she doesn't have the best track record when delivering in the bigger international competitions. With Alina's struggles and injury (I'm really hoping she can seek outside help at this point ), her European title is at risk after finishing 5th in a competition for a second time this year. Sofia is a delight to watch and has proven herself consistent and reliable this year and a podium place would be icing on the cake for this debut senior season. Liza would have been the favourite to win in this field. Speedy recovery to her.

 

[GoodMorningGrapeseed]

1. Rika Kihira (-) - silver at Nationals, but still looking the most dominant
2. Alina Zagitova (-) - hangs on by a thread, because she has really only looked secure twice this season, and at her earliest competitions at that. Still, if she goes clean or near-clean, then the PCS will probably still keep her ahead of everyone, except for a solid Kihira. The thing is, I don't have as much confidence that she will go clean or near-clean at Europeans and Worlds, and Liza and Kaori have been progressing rather than regressing.
3. Kaori Sakamoto (+2)- the newly-crowned Japanese National Champion looks stronger with every competition, and this title should bolster her PCS scores at 4CCs (if she goes, she will have the chance to defend her title and build even more momentum) and Worlds.
4. Elizaveta Tuktamysheva (-1) - Moves down through no fault of her own. Indeed, if Tuk had competed at Nationals and placed ahead of Alina, then I would have her in second or third. Sitting out Europeans could mute her momentum, but it will give her time to fully heal going into Worlds.
5. Satoko Miyahara (-1) - She is still a reliable team member, but I fear her already low PCS will fall even more now that she is Japanese #3 and not the team leader, and her jumps will continue to be at the mercy of the technical panel. She showed determination at Nationals after her GPF disappointment, and I hope to see that same fighter at Worlds.
6. Sofia Samodurova (-) - It looks like the final Worlds spot will be contested between Konstantinova and her at Europeans. If Sonya puts forth two clean skates and medals (and Stasya is off the podium), then she will be deserving of the team, and will likely place somewhere here (or above Satoko) with her usual consistency.
7. Bradie Tennell (-)
8. Stanislava Konstantinova (new) - Being the highest-placed senior at Nationals might give her a PCS boost internationally at Europeans, but it could also add even more pressure to an already unstable competitor. In the event that she does make it to Worlds, I have her below Tennell at the moment because she is such a wild card.
9. Eunsoo Lim (-1)

Circling the top 10: Loena Hendrickx / Elizabet Tursynbaeva / Mariah Bell

NBC should hire you to write the skater introductions.

 

[rachno2]

NBC should hire you to write the skater introductions.

Haha thanks I put more effort into my golden skate posts than my grad school papers, which is concerning

 

[bobbob]

As seen by Russian Nationals, it is pointless to do juniors and seniors separately when the juniors are moving up very soon so I will stick with doing everyone together...

Post GPF, nationals

1. Alexandra Trusova (+1) - though she placed 2nd at nationals, she has the best track record and consistency all season of any skater, junior or senior
2. Alena Kostornaia (+2) - amazing at both JGPF and Nationals, just needs to upgrade her jump content and would easily top this list, consistent, clean, beautiful
3. Rika Kihira (--) - didn't win nationals, still the strongest of all seniors but not as consistent as had hoped (still her 3A is relatively consistent)
4. Anna Shcherbakova (+1) - not great at JGPF but won! senior nationals, high ceiling in score
5. Alina Zagitova (-4) - inconsistencies are showing and does have bombs...if clean, she still has a high chance of winning worlds
6. Kaori Sakamoto (+4) - great job at Japanese nats, her skating skills are getting noticed
7. Elizaveta Tuktymysheva (--) - maybe have her one spot higher, amazing at GPF, but uncertain abt her recovery/Worlds and her PCS ceiling definitely is obvious
8. Satoko Miyahara (-2) - her performance is too much at the mercy of the technical caller...i just don't see the judges compelled to giver her PCS either with two other Japanese ladies
9. Mai Mihara (new) - she skated well and is quite consistent, but probably not going to Worlds
10. Evgenia Medvedeva (-2) - messed up AGAIN at nationals, but has the PCS scores still, hopefully she gets more comfortable before changing things up again because she has a higher ceiling than Stanislava/Sofia
--
11-15. Stanislava KONSTANTINOVA, Sofia SAMODUROVA, Bradie Tennell, Alena KANYSHEVA, Wakaba Higuchi
Unknown but likely to be there if known: Carolina Kostner

 

[yume]

IMO nats performances scores are meaningless and i wouldn't take them in account for this rankings.

 

[rachno2]

IMO nats performances scores are meaningless and i wouldn't take them in account for this rankings.

Respectfully disagree. I think the performances are useful indicators for how the skater is doing/what their momentum looks like. Are they progressing? Have they already peaked? You can never know for sure, but you can make educated guesses. I agree the scores themselves are meaningless.

Nationals also more or less tell us who we will see at the major competitions.

 

[sweetice]

IMO nats performances scores are meaningless and i wouldn't take them in account for this rankings.

Nats scores may be meaningless, but not performances.

 

[Step Sequence4]

Oml who even knows after the nationals we’ve had, I feel like the WC could be any of; Rika,Alina,Elizaveta,Kaori,Satoko,Stanislava or even Caro if she comes back in good form. It all depends what happens that day and certainly some have a higher scoring potential than others, but the question is will they perform.

 

[yume]

Well, i take back my words about performance then. Even if i think that international and national comps don't have the same weight psychologically. Sure, there is pressure at nats because of spots, but it's different. For example, both nats and worlds will be in Japan this season for Japanese skaters, but i bet that pressure at worlds will be ×1000 than at nats.
Glad that we agree on scores, because they are just jokes. Even some Japan's scores this year are jokes.

 

[[email protected]]

My ranking campaign is near the finish line - the only meaningful event left is US Nationals. After that the skates will show if power ranking correspond to real results or not:

#1 Rika Kihira I did not see her programs but I know that she made mistakes at SP but won the FP. So that she keeps her #1 position. If she is clean in both programs she will win WC. If not, she may lose to clean Alina.

#2 Alina Zagitova I watched her in Saransk and I think that she was not 100% well. Europeans will be crucial in many aspects. They are Alina's to lose but we said the same at least 2 times this year when she lost in fact.

#3 Kaori Sakamoto +1 Now that Liza's future is uncertain and Kaori just won the national title, her #3 position is firm. If WC were tomorrow I am sure she will be on the podium. Will it be like that in March? Why not?

#4 Satoko Miyahara +1 Satoko is still there fighting for the place under the sun. She may be lowballed by International tech panels like it was at GPF. But WC will be in Japan and the status of one of her main competitors - Liza - is uncertain

#5 Elizaveta Tuktamysheva -2 Looks like the risky gala program was an unnecessary overkill that lead to a serious disease - pneumonia. Now no one knows will Liza be able to regain her terrific shape. Hence, this #5 position is sort of a placeholder

#6 Bradie Tennell I simply enjoy Bradie's skating this season. She needs consistency - stop falling, for one thing. Then she could aim at #3-#4 positions

# 7 Stanislava Konstantinova new I did not believe that Stasya would ever make the national team again - I was wrong. In her defense, she skates with much better consistency this season. The Europeans will be crucial. If she gets at least 190, I think, she has good chances for the worlds team if Liza is not back or if Sofia skates worse than her. If she scores below 190 at the Europeans, with no Liza's comeback Medvedeva may show up for the worlds team.

#8 Sofia Samodurova -1 Losing one point is technical due to Stasya. Sofia can easily get it back by skating like she skates this season. This will bring her more than 200 points like it was at GPF. As far as I know, Konstantinova never scored above 200.

#9 Loena Hendrickx No news The only non-Russian European with some placements ambitions.

#10 Maria Bell No news

To watch:

Russia: Evgeniya Medvedeva. Her season is not over - she is in reserve. But for her to get out of it two things must happen: Liza will not recover and Stasya will bomb the Europeans

Japan: Mai Mihara. There is a huge gap between Mai as Japanese Nationals #4 and the rest. It means that the season is over for Juna S, Mako, Wakaba and others but Mai might be still around.

Korea: Eunsoo Lim - one of my favorite skaters this season.

Kazakhstan: Elizaveta Tursynbaeva - she had a very strong start but then put on the brake a bit. I am not sure if momentum is still there. But I saw very good potential for improvement and top-10 placement in the WC.

 

[Mathman]

Of all the component marks, Skating Skills tends to baffle me the most when I see judges’ scores, as it’s a technical, not artistic, assessment, and someone can be a weaker skater in terms of fundamental skating skills while also having a superbly choreographed and performed programme.

Personally, I have more or less come to terms with the fact that all five program component scores are usually about the same across the board (regardless of the actual rules and criteria). If you have strong skating skills you can put those skills to the service of Interpreting the music. Many and varied transitions enhance Choreography. Confident stroking and edging is necessary to a convincing Performance, and so on.

I do not envy the judges their task in parcelling it all out.

 

[Metis]

Personally, I have more or less come to terms with the fact that all five program component scores are usually about the same across the board (regardless of the actual rules and criteria). If you have strong skating skills you can put those skills to the service of Interpreting the music. Many and varied transitions enhance Choreography. Confident stroking and edging is necessary to a convincing Performance, and so on.

I do not envy the judges their task in parcelling it all out.

I accept the crazy. I just wish we could eventually split TES and PCS judging, with the TES panel also evaluating SS and TR.

 

[lzxnl]

I accept the crazy. I just wish we could eventually split TES and PCS judging, with the TES panel also evaluating SS and TR.

I think a request for that was voted down by ISU this year.

 

[Metis]

I think a request for that was voted down by ISU this year.

It was. I’m still a little mad. [emoji34]

In the war between incompetence and malevolence, the ISU is funding both sides.