Caroline and Mirai and the 3/3s

[euterpe]

Mao double-footed her 3A and the 3T in her 2A+3T combo was double-footed AND underrotated. Those mistakes cost her the World title.

Mao is not invincible, as we have seen. She is also growing and may experience the same problems Miki had in her 16-to-18 years. Her sister Mai had similar growth woes.

 

[gkelly]

The problem with using triple-triple jump sequences to maximize triples is that the way the scoring is currently set up the jumps are actually worth less in sequence than they are in isolation.

The area where the top juniors are currently behind the best seniors is in program component scores. Although I think these two junior girls are already excellent in some of the areas covered by the PCS, I do think there's still a gap in skating skills between Asada and Kim on the one hand and Nagasu and Zhang (and almost everyone else) on the other, and it seems that judges are still tying the other components to the SS mark more than necessary. Performance/execution and Interpretation seem to be particularly subjective in that fans often disagree strongly on which skaters are best in these areas, and most likely judges opinions on these marks are affected consciously or unconsciously by their own preferences and expectations too.

We'll have to see whether the juniors continue to improve their basics as they move into senior competition, and/or judges are prepared to assign them higher marks when comparing them to senior skaters. It wouldn't surprise me if they start getting scores in at least the low 7s, especially if there is actual improvement as is often the case at that age/stage. But it also wouldn't surprise me if Zhang especially sees her Skating Skills and related scores go down once she's on the same ice with the top senior skaters.

 

[SeaniBu]

The problem with using triple-triple jump sequences to maximize triples is that the way the scoring is currently set up the jumps are actually worth less in sequence than they are in isolation.

I certainly hope I am not the only one that this sounds outrageous to. Or am I again missing something? Wouldn't it be harder to do them in sequence? So difficulty doesn't even seem to be factored - from this and another thread topic - It seems that this whole idea that the CoP is designating "cookie cutter" programmes and forcing the routines to look alike is 100% true.


Thank gKelly, I always love your posts!

 

[iloveaxel]

I certainly hope I am not the only one that this sounds outrageous to. Or am I again missing something? Wouldn't it be harder to do them in sequence? !

It's much easier to do triple triple sequence than triple triple combination. That's why you saw lots of pairs teams doing triple triple sequence. Generally speaking, pairs skaters are much weaker in solo jumps.

Regarding Caroline Zhang, she is working on triple triple, according to this article:
http://www.skatetoday.com/articles07/021307.htm

Zhang has recently mastered a few clean triple-triple sequences. The most consistent are a triple loop/tap toe/ triple loop and a triple lutz/tap toe/ triple toe), but she cannot include either a triple-triple sequence or combination in her program this year since that would mean repeating too many triples. She is definitely planning a triple salchow or a triple axel in next year's jump layout, in order to be able to include a triple-triple combination. Zhang used triple lutz-double toe-double loop, triple flip-double toe, and triple toe-double toe in her long program this year and triple lutz-double toe in the short.

Triple+triple combination is extremely important, especially in short program. Without a triple+triple, I don't believe either Zhang or Mirai can compete against the current top 4 or 5 skaters.

I have my doubt about Caroline Zhang's ability to eventually master a clean triple+triple combo. This will be key for her to break out on the senior scene.

 

[Joesitz (RIP)]

I think the two young American girls know their ancestry and will be working on matching that starting months ago. Kim and Mao are at the top of the world right now and Zhang and Nagasu are not blind.

Time will tell when it becomes a four way race.

Joe

 

[SeaniBu]

It's much easier to do triple triple sequence than triple triple combination. That's why you saw lots of pairs teams doing triple triple sequence. Generally speaking, pairs skaters are much weaker in solo jumps.

But is a single jump in a "pass" harder than doing them in either a combo or a sequence?

 

[Mathman]

Sean, here is what helps me to understand the questions that you are raising. Try to construct some sample jump lay-outs, paying attention to the Zayak restriction. You (ladies LP) have seven jumping passes of which one must be reserved for a double Axel (assuming you don't have a triple Axel). That leaves six. You can do three multiple jump sequences, only one of which can have three jumps. You can only repeat two different jumps and for each of the two, one of the repititions must be in a combo or sequence.

The more you try to do this, the more clear it becomes why the skaters (and their choreographers) do what they do. In particular, I cannot see how a triple/triple/triple can get you any extra points, except possibly for the Wow! factor.

The point of doing a sequence is that if you can't do a triple/triple combo, this is the only way to squeeze a seventh jump into your program. So the "penalty" for doing a sequence is actually only in contrast to doing a combo. It is not really a penalty compared to doing the jumps separately because doing them separately uses up two of your passes. So think of the second jump of a sequence as an extra jump that you get to do by putting it in a sequence, rather than as something that you don't get full credit for.

There is some sentiment that there should be a bonus for doing jumps in combination, rather than singly. But I think the current system does reward combos and sequences in the sense that they let you do one more triple jump (not to mention a couple of extra double loops = 1.5 per jump.)

 

[Mathman]

[continued, LOL -- still talking about SeaniBu's questions]

Check out what Iloveaxel quoted above. Caroline's jump layout last year was

3Lz+2T+2Lo
2A
3F+2T
3Lo
3Lz
3F
3T+2T

This pretty much maximizes the amount of points she can get without doing a 3/3 combo or sequence. She did 2 Lutzes and 2 Flips, which are the highest scoring jumps.

But she doesn't have a triple Salchow (very strange. Mao had a lot of trouble with this jump, too. But Mao has a triple Axel, so she doesn't need it.) Without a triple Salchow, Caroline cannot do a 3/3 combo or a 3/3 sequence....because...what could the second jump be? She already has a solo 3T and a solo 3Lo, and these are the only jumps you can do as the second jump of a combo, and she can't do a sequence either, because in any case she has already done one of all the other jumps. Sasha got around this by doing an extra Salchow as the second jump of a sequence, but at the cost of not doing two Lutzes.

So the only way Caroline could get more points would be something like change her 3F+2T to 3F+3T and her solo 3T to a second 2A (this gains an extra 2 points). But if she had a Salchow she could do 3F+3T and 3S, gaining 3.2 points over her current lay-out.

(I had to laugh at "she needs either a 3S or a 3A to pull this off" -- as if it is equally likely that she will get the one as the other.)

 

[hockeyfan228]

You don't get any more points for doing the jumps in combination than you do performing them singly or in a sequence like Sasha Cohen likes to do in her long programs.

The first part is misleading: comparing jumping passes, a skater does not get more points by doing the same jump singly and in combination; however doing jumps singly limits total points for jump passes, because of the Zayak rule and the axel requirement:

a. Without a 3/3 or 3A, the maximum jumps are 6 triples, one 2A, plus doubles in three combinations.

b. Without a 3A and one 3/3, the maximum jumps are 7 triples, one 2A, plus doubles in at least two combinations. All things being equal, base of 2.7-2.9 points higher.

c. With two 3/3's, the maximum jumps are 7 triples, two 2-A's, plus doubles in at least one combination. All things being equal, base of 5.2-5.4 points higher.

d. With a 3A and one 3/3, the maximum jumps are 8 triples and one 2A, plus doubles in at least two combinations. All things being equal, base of 6.7-6.9 points higher.

e. With a 3A and two 3/3's, the maximum jumps are 8 triples and two 2A's, plus doubles in at least one combination. All things being equal, base of 10.4-10.8 points higher.

That a jump receives the same credit done as a solo jump and in sequence is simply untrue and not a matter of opinion: a sequence, whether intended or called because of an incompete triple or quad combination in which a jump is repeated receives 80% of the score of a solo jump or jump in sequence.

As long as you maximize your jumping passes you can still compete.

It depends on what your competition lands. In Moscow, Cohen's competition:

Slutskaya: blew her out of the water, even with a jump repeated three times for which she got no credit
Kwan: didn't attempt to maximize jump passes
Kostner: didn't deliver the plan of record

None of Cohen's competitors in Moscow, save Kostner, has a plausible planned 3/3 combination. In Tokyo, the top four skaters either landed a 3/3 in the SP and/or landed 3/3('s) and/or 3A in the LP.

 

[Zuranthium]

Kwan: didn't attempt to maximize jump passes

Kwan definitely changed her jump layout to fit CoP. She added a 3-jump combination and changed a 3Loop to a 3Flip. With the way her body was by that point, it's pretty much the best she could do. The 3/3 was no longer within her capabilities.

~Z

 

[antmanb]

What would a 3/3/3 do to a programme?

Give you another jumping pass effectively!

Seriously - are you a fan of Kevin Ven de Perren? There were couple of seasons where he did a 3F/3T/3R combination before he had the quad toe (or a reliable triple axel). By getting three triple jumps in one jumping pass it would free up jumping passes and allow a skater to fill the spots with double axels (which are not subject to the zayak rule.

For a lady without a triple axel (but all the others) and an amazing ability to land 3/3 combos, she could do the following:

3Lz/3T/3R
3F/3R
2A/2R
3S
3Lz
2A
2A

Base Value (not taking into account the second half bonus or GOE) 47.4

By the way does anyone have a link to the scale of values? I must have wasted 20 mins scouring the ISU website for the cscale of values and couldn't find them - i had to look at old protocols to get the figure for jumps!

Ant

 

[Mathman]

3Lz/3T/3R
3F/3R
2A/2R
3S
3Lz
2A
2A

Base Value (not taking into account the second half bonus or GOE) 47.4

Still, that is only 1.3 points better than

3Lz/3T
3F/3R
2A/2R/2R
3S
3Lz
3F
2A

= 46.1 points (giving up a 3R and a 2A in exchange for a 3F and a 2R).

By the way does anyone have a link to the scale of values?

They seem to have taken it down for the moment, possibly for revision? I notice that it disappears every now and then, then reappears at the same link.

are you a fan of Kevin Ven de Perren?

I know you are asking Sean, but I will answer generically -- Who isn't!

 

[gkelly]

Try ISU communication 1396 for the most recent singles/pairs values. I'd have to look further to find the latest for dance.

 

[Mathman]

Try ISU communication 1396 for the most recent singles/pairs values. I'd have to look further to find the latest for dance.

Thanks. :agree:

http://www.isu.org/vsite/vfile/page/fileurl/0,11040,4844-179501-196719-109218-0-file,00.pdf

 

[gio]

3Lz+2T+2Lo
2A
3F+2T
3Lo
3Lz
3F
3T+2T

And what will happen if ISU decides to Zayak the flutzers. Without the Salchow and the Lutz, Caroline will be in serious trouble. She doesn't even care to switch to the outside edge (pretty arrogant to do 4 triple flips IMO). I guess she thinks "he he, I do four triple flips and the stupid judges give me +1 GOE for the "lutzes". Oh and poor Kimmie and Emily are struggling with their true Lutzes. They are so naives".

 

[antmanb]

And what will happen if ISU decides to Zayak the flutzers. Without the Salchow and the Lutz, Caroline will be in serious trouble. She doesn't even care to switch to the outside edge (pretty arrogant to do 4 triple flips IMO). I guess she thinks "he he, I do four triple flips and the stupid judges give me +1 GOE for the "lutzes". Oh and poor Kimmie and Emily are struggling with their true Lutzes. They are so naives".

Nothing.

As far as i'm aware the ISU has never made any move to count a flutz as a flip. For at least 11 years now the message from the ISU has been to mark the jump that was intended...

Although interestingly when watching the pairs competition at Worlds on British Eurosport the commentators were talking (i think) about a north maerican team who had listed as one of their elements a throw triple lutz. Our commentators (who admitedly bang their drum about a flutz really being a flip) noted that she changed edge onto a inside edge on take off and that she would get -GOE for a change of edge. They commented that the couple would be better off saying that they were doing a throw triple flip. At the time i made point of looking at the protocols to see if the -GOEs had been given and to my surprise i saw quite a few +GOEs, when i looked at the called element it was a throw tiple flip....so what happened - the commentators clearly had the list of planned elements, did the caller call what he saw (a flip)? Interesting if the pairs judges are actually calling the take off edge to determine throw jumps and split twist, but not in the singles.

Ant

 

[antmanb]

Still, that is only 1.3 points better than

3Lz/3T
3F/3R
2A/2R/2R
3S
3Lz
3F
2A

= 46.1 points (giving up a 3R and a 2A in exchange for a 3F and a 2R).

That's true the point increase doesn't seem that great. As a startegy for Kevin in the Men's event though it worked really well because of the 8 jumping passes the men are allowed. At the time (amending my original position) Kevin had a hit and miss tiple axel and no quad but he managed to rack up points by filling the rest of his jumping passes with double axels.

His planned jump content that season was:
3A
3A+3T
3Lz
3S+3T+3R
2A
2A
3F
2A

The second half bonus applied to the 3/3/3 and the rest of the jumps. He had five jumpnig passes that began with the axel which also meant if he popped the first one he still had another four goes and getting the triple out, with not huge consequence if he popped it.


I also agree MM i am a hge KVDP fan!

Ant

 

[Tinymavy15]

no, our young skaters do not have the triple triple, but might by the time they are old enough to skate with the seniors. Like other posters before, i agree that caroline esp does not really need one. She will be the next sasha cohen. Maybe she never will win worlds due to this, but you never know. miki might retire soon and mao might lose her triple triples in growth spurt. also moa might miss a world championship with injury, and then caroline could easily win.

 

[Mathman]

By your line of reasoning, it might be better for Caroline and Mirai to work on the 3-axel.

Well, yes. But hunreds of skaters have "worked on" the triple Axel since the days of Midori Ito and Tonya Harding. All we have to show for it, besides Mao, is one half-baked one by Kimmie a couple of years ago, one by Ludmilla Nelidina (who?) at Skate America a few years ago, and a few (full rotations?) by Yukari Nakano.

Many are called, few are chosen.