2019-20 U.S. Men's Figure Skating

[el henry]

Pardon me, but in some other countries, a sports figure/athlete is not prominent/VVIP enough to interrupt a live broadcast. In my country in Asia, only the death of the Prime Minister or King are at that level. Means Royalty & Politicians first.
Athletes at most get coverage at prime time news as headliner - like a prominent active athlete who was diagnosed of cancer(still alive today). He was preparing for 2020 Olympics at the time.

Life threatening injury during competition goes to main news prime time. Death during competition - prime time news. At no time will they interupt a live broadcast for an athlete.

I really hate derailing this thread more, but for our friends who live outside the US:

Kobe was well known far beyond his basketball abilities. You could stop ten random people on the street in the US, and I bet at least half would know Kobe. He was so famous he was known by one name.
From The NY Times from page news story: “Yet he was far more than a basketball giant. He was among the world’s best known athletes, a star on the order of Tiger Woods or Michael Jordan.”

My favorite skater (Jason) was affected most by this decision, and I am neither outraged nor puzzled.

topic:

And back ON TOPIC, was this the best men’s skating ever? Yes. I love the US men.:yes:

 

[MarkinBerkeley]

Right? My guess is that Jason is going to 4CC to build his confidence in the 4T before world's.

God, I hope he can get that jump down. However, he's so good he might possibly win a medal at Worlds even if he doesn't. He actually beat Hanyu's score at Japanese Nationals.

 

[brightphoton]

I really hate derailing this thread more, but for our friends who live outside the US:

Kobe was well known far beyond his basketball abilities. You could stop ten random people on the street in the US, and I bet at least half would know Kobe. He was so famous he was known by one name.
From The NY Times from page news story: “Yet he was far more than a basketball giant. He was among the world’s best known athletes, a star on the order of Tiger Woods or Michael Jordan.”

My favorite skater (Jason) was affected most by this decision, and I am neither outraged nor puzzled.

topic:

And back ON TOPIC, was this the best men’s skating ever? Yes. I love the US men.:yes:

I knew that Kobe Bryant was a basketball player, but only because there was a famous court case about Kobe Bryant the basketball player who raped a woman. I suspect a lot of people who don't watch basketball know him only for those headlines, much in the same way people who don't watch soccer know that Hope Solo beat up a guy and Tonya Harding whacked a knee.

 

[oatmella]

God, I hope he can get that jump down. However, he's so good he might possibly win a medal at Worlds even if he doesn't. He actually beat Hanyu's score at Japanese Nationals.

Yuzu’s FS at Japan Nationals was far below his usual level, and the scoring there is not as generous.

 

[Skater Boy]

God, I hope he can get that jump down. However, he's so good he might possibly win a medal at Worlds even if he doesn't. He actually beat Hanyu's score at Japanese Nationals.

Jason has amazing skating skills anything is possible but using national scores is very foolish and almost useless. I give Jason credit but this is getting late in the game. People thought Chan lacked tech abilities with jumps but Jason is even further back and not as good pc wise. Landing a quad will be a confidence builder but probably won't really be a sign of consistency. Maybe if he did it in th short and long.

 

[Mrs. P]

If Jason can land everything else perfectly, even with a DG quad, he might have a shot. The men are always unpredictable and a lot of stars aligning could create a medal winning scenario.

But yeah if you can correctly predict which man will get world bronze, you ought to consider playing the lottery.

Overall I think US nationals show the continued depth of the us men. A year ago with Ross, Adam and Max retiring it looked like the men would be in a rebuilding phase. This US nats show that phase may not take as long as we thought.

 

[oatmella]

Quite a few men at Worlds would have to splat in order for Jason to win a medal, I hope no one is actually hoping for that.

 

[Mrs. P]

Quite a few men at Worlds would have to splat in order for Jason to win a medal, I hope no one is actually hoping for that.

Of course, I’m not hoping for that. But I thinks reasonable to say that the men are unpredictable. As I said, beyond Nathan and Yuzu , if anyone can correctly predict the top 10 men at worlds perfectly then they are impressive and should go for lottery and horse gambling.

Jason could finish third, he could also finish 12th or somewhere in between. I’m just happy he’s going to Worlds, so it’s not that deep for me what people think of his potential placement.

 

[fzztsimmons]

Quite a few men at Worlds would have to splat in order for Jason to win a medal, I hope no one is actually hoping for that.

I think this would be a more compelling argument if there was actually a solid bronze medal competitor. But below Nathan Chen and Yuzuru Hanyu (who I think are a lock for 1-2 in either order) who is really the stand out third man who has had a consistent season?

Shoma Uno -maybe, he did just beat Yuzuru at Nats. But look at the start of his season, he fell apart at his first Grand Prix. He finally has a coach now but Lambiel is not the best jump tech.

Dmitri Aliev - more consistent recently, winning RusNats and Euros. But he fell apart at GPF and Jason beat him at Skate America due to his tendency to pop and zayak.

Alexander Samarin - Strong in the Grand Prix but a disaster RusNats and Euros. May not even make the world team for russia, and doesn’t have the PCS to boost him when the tech fails.

Kevin Aymoz- a week ago I would have said yes, but then he failed to make the free skate at euros. His jumps can be wild and he hasn’t had completely consistent programmes this season.

Vincent Zhou - last year’s bronze but following his long break and change in training have only seen him at Nats. His tech is significantly watered down compared to last year and his PCS is not enough to hold him up with (currently) one quad. Jason just beat him at Nats by a decent margin.

Boyang Jin - made the GPF but again had a turbulent Grand Prix season. Has improved his PCS but again when the jumps go down he doesn’t have a buffer.

Who else is left? Keegan Messing and Nam Nguyen haven’t had a fab Grand Prix season and not great showings at Nationals.

So I think Jason has a chance if he goes clean as a whistle and would be completely deserved if there are some mistakes by others. No one is wishing for anyone to bomb but it’s not like ANY of the competitors for that bronze medal have been consistent - so any splats would not really be a shock.

 

[TontoK]

I think this would be a more compelling argument if there was actually a solid bronze medal competitor. But below Nathan Chen and Yuzuru Hanyu (who I think are a lock for 1-2 in either order) who is really the stand out third man who has had a consistent season?

Shoma Uno -maybe, he did just beat Yuzuru at Nats. But look at the start of his season, he fell apart at his first Grand Prix. He finally has a coach now but Lambiel is not the best jump tech.

Dmitri Aliev - more consistent recently, winning RusNats and Euros. But he fell apart at GPF and Jason beat him at Skate America due to his tendency to pop and zayak.

Alexander Samarin - Strong in the Grand Prix but a disaster RusNats and Euros. May not even make the world team for russia, and doesn’t have the PCS to boost him when the tech fails.

Kevin Aymoz- a week ago I would have said yes, but then he failed to make the free skate at euros. His jumps can be wild and he hasn’t had completely consistent programmes this season.

Vincent Zhou - last year’s bronze but following his long break and change in training have only seen him at Nats. His tech is significantly watered down compared to last year and his PCS is not enough to hold him up with (currently) one quad. Jason just beat him at Nats by a decent margin.

Boyang Jin - made the GPF but again had a turbulent Grand Prix season. Has improved his PCS but again when the jumps go down he doesn’t have a buffer.

Who else is left? Keegan Messing and Nam Nguyen haven’t had a fab Grand Prix season and not great showings at Nationals.

So I think Jason has a chance if he goes clean as a whistle and would be completely deserved if there are some mistakes by others. No one is wishing for anyone to bomb but it’s not like ANY of the competitors for that bronze medal have been consistent - so any splats would not really be a shock.

Well, first of all, I'm not mentally awarding ANY medals prematurely. Not even to Nathan and Yuzu. This season is too unpredictable and the favored men have risky programs.

But, to your list, I don't think Samarin will be selected for Worlds. The Russian Fed will surely send Aliev and Danielian, the 1-2 finishers at RussNats and Euros.

Canada hasn't made their selection yet, either (and don't get me started on that), but I think Sadovsky has a no worse than level chance of going as Nam or Keegan.

But the rest of the list... reasonable. There is no telling how any of this will play out.

If I were absolutely FORCED to make a choice in the presumed fight for the bronze medal, I'd guess Vincent. He got pretty good pretty fast when he resumed training, and he's got a couple of months to get his biggest jumps back. If he does, his likely tech gap with Jason will dwarf the PCS gap... rightly or wrongly. And I say this as someone who didn't really think he should be named to the team.

 

[Aglae]

I think this would be a more compelling argument if there was actually a solid bronze medal competitor. But below Nathan Chen and Yuzuru Hanyu (who I think are a lock for 1-2 in either order) who is really the stand out third man who has had a consistent season?

Shoma Uno -maybe, he did just beat Yuzuru at Nats. But look at the start of his season, he fell apart at his first Grand Prix. He finally has a coach now but Lambiel is not the best jump tech.

Dmitri Aliev - more consistent recently, winning RusNats and Euros. But he fell apart at GPF and Jason beat him at Skate America due to his tendency to pop and zayak.

Alexander Samarin - Strong in the Grand Prix but a disaster RusNats and Euros. May not even make the world team for russia, and doesn’t have the PCS to boost him when the tech fails.

Kevin Aymoz- a week ago I would have said yes, but then he failed to make the free skate at euros. His jumps can be wild and he hasn’t had completely consistent programmes this season.

Vincent Zhou - last year’s bronze but following his long break and change in training have only seen him at Nats. His tech is significantly watered down compared to last year and his PCS is not enough to hold him up with (currently) one quad. Jason just beat him at Nats by a decent margin.

Boyang Jin - made the GPF but again had a turbulent Grand Prix season. Has improved his PCS but again when the jumps go down he doesn’t have a buffer.

Who else is left? Keegan Messing and Nam Nguyen haven’t had a fab Grand Prix season and not great showings at Nationals.

So I think Jason has a chance if he goes clean as a whistle and would be completely deserved if there are some mistakes by others. No one is wishing for anyone to bomb but it’s not like ANY of the competitors for that bronze medal have been consistent - so any splats would not really be a shock.

Is it necessary to put everyone else in a bad light because Jason just had a great competition? All these guys are inconsistent to some degree, Jason included, but we can also look at it another way.

Shoma Uno -> he had a terrible GP series because he had no coach and was going through some sort of depression. Now he has a coach, and he did have an amazing comeback at Japanese Nats, and at his best, he still is the only one with the content and the PCS to approach Yuzu and Nathan.
Dmitri Aliev -> he is on the rise and is showing back some of the spark he had during the Olympics season. Who knows how the European title will boost his confidence?
Artur Danielian (assuming he gets the World spot) -> the guy just got silver at both RusNats and Euros. He could go to Worlds as the young guy with no pressure on his shoulder. How long has it been since such a young guy got on the podium at a major event?
Kevin Aymoz -> one bad competition and he is not in contention anymore? Yes he bombed at Euros, but he landed 4S at French Nats, so he is upping his base value and he obviously is loved by the judges.
Vincent Zhou -> it is super impressive he managed to put down 2 clean performances at US Nats given where he came from. I would be surprised if he did not up his base values for Worlds. He got back 3A 2 weeks ago, 4S last week and he still has 7 weeks until Worlds to get back his other quads.
Boyang Jin -> Boyang Jin is a second half of the season skater. If you compare to last year, his first half of the season this year was stellar.
Junhwan Cha -> he was clean at Korean Nats. Will we finally get back the Junhwan from the first half of last season with a more mature package?
The canadian guy -> whoever the Canadian Fed decides to send, they have had a rather solid first half the season. Nam and Roman both medaled at a GP.

and the likes of Keiji Tanaka, Matteo Rizzo, Daniel Grassl, Morizi Kvitelashvili or Michal Brezina could shine brightly on a good day. And if we take into account other non quadsters like Jason, Han Yan and Deniss Vasiljevs have the goods too.

I am excited to have this crop of guys (+Nathan and Yuzuru) at Worlds, they all have a great potential, and I am really happy that Jason will be there to showcase his unique artistry. I don't see the point of wishing the other guys to bomb so that Jason can win a medal. And let's face it, if Jason beats Shoma, Vincent, Dima, Boyang and Kevin, it will mean the five of them will have bombed.

 

[alexaa]

Is it necessary to put everyone else in a bad light because Jason just had a great competition? All these guys are inconsistent to some degree, Jason included, but we can also look at it another way. .

Great analysis.

Shoma has been coachless since last summer, and he did suffer confidence issues even before worlds last year. He starts to get confidence back around JNats. It is true Lambiel is not a tech coach, with 4T,4S, 4F and possible return of 4loop, to me Shoma just needs to get consistency. He looked really happy with the move.

Shoma beat Vincent by a couple points last October in JO. Well, you can argue he had home court advantage over there, but he has way better SS skills and has somewhat PCS advantage.

Neither Shoma nor Vincent did well at CS events the beginning of the season.

Vincent had limited training for 2 months, but the argument for Vincent is that considering his GP records the previous two seasons, apparently he is a second half season skater, so is Boyang. And I didn’t really view the tow months absence from GP necessarily a bad thing for him like most people thought, he always somehow got himself injured during GP, or had some messy performances due to UR calls, which was really bad for confidence, as well as impressions on judges. It is a fresh start for him now.

The issues with Dima are always confidence and stamina, and his PCS is not that high compared to Samarin. The Russian nats and Euro win will be huge confidence booster, and probably a boost in PCS from now on. His stamina also looked improving.

Let’s not forget Jason still suffered concussion issues in December.

 

[Mrs. P]

I also think it’s super limiting to say that if Jason can only earn a certain placement, I guess third or top five, cause everyone bombed.

Here’s the thing, Jason’s trajectory as far as clean skating, technical content, and how he is judged on his skating could also potentially go up. He might be able to determine his destiny a little more and be less dependent on others performances.

And honestly as a fan I’d rather see Jason succeed because he did his very best not cause others did poorly that is what happened at nationals and it can certainly happen at worlds.

And saying that the men’s field is highly unpredictable does not mean I wish skaters to do poorly.

Tomoki went from finishing last at JGPF to winning junior worlds last season. Dima went from the most heartbreaking skate at GPF to winning Euros. Even within the same competition , Artur went from 13th in the SP to winning the silver medal at Russian nationals (and this was after just missing out on the JUNIOR Grand Prix final). In the opposite rein you have Kevin going from GPf bronze medalist to not qualifying for the free skate at Euros. I don’t want these things to happen to ANY skater but I don’t see what is wrong with saying that Jason (Or any skater) may benefit from the unpredictable nature of the men’s field.

And for the sake of balance it’s also certainly possible that Jason peaked at nationals and it’s downhill from here. My main point is that in this men’s field, it’s really hard to tell for sure.

***
As a side note, I honestly am not surprised that Vincent pulled the rabbits and managed a fourth place finish and a Worlds spot. Nationals is his competition and has been for several years. It will be interesting to see where he’ll be in about two months for Worlds.

 

[mrrice]

I also think it’s super limiting to say that if Jason can only earn a certain placement, I guess third or top five, cause everyone bombed.

Here’s the thing, Jason’s trajectory as far as clean skating, technical content, and how he is judged on his skating could also potentially go up. He might be able to determine his destiny a little more and be less dependent on others performances.

And honestly as a fan I’d rather see Jason succeed because he did his very best not cause others did poorly that is what happened at nationals and it can certainly happen at worlds.

And saying that the men’s field is highly unpredictable does not mean I wish skaters to do poorly.

Tomoki went from finishing last at JGPF to winning junior worlds last season. Dima went from the most heartbreaking skate at GPF to winning Euros. Even within the same competition , Artur went from 13th in the SP to winning the silver medal at Russian nationals (and this was after just missing out on the JUNIOR Grand Prix final). In the opposite rein you have Kevin going from GPf bronze medalist to not qualifying for the free skate at Euros. I don’t want these things to happen to ANY skater but I don’t see what is wrong with saying that Jason (Or any skater) may benefit from the unpredictable nature of the men’s field.

And for the sake of balance it’s also certainly possible that Jason peaked at nationals and it’s downhill from here. My main point is that in this men’s field, it’s really hard to tell for sure.

This is exactly how I feel...…...

 

[Tavi...]

Quite a few men at Worlds would have to splat in order for Jason to win a medal, I hope no one is actually hoping for that.

I’m not predicting or hoping for a medal - nor am I hoping for a lot of splats. But last year, Vincent took bronze with a score of 281.16.

Jason earned 101 in the SP at Nats. He won’t get that internationally, but his PB from last season is nearly 97. So let’s say he can earn 97 in the SP at Worlds. His BV with the downgraded quad (but no fall) at Nats was 71.51. He got super high GOE on almost everything except that quad. But let’s give him an average of +3 GOE, which means we add 30% to his BV, giving him total TES of 92.95. Add PCS of, say, 90. Total: 97 SP + 182.95 FS = 279.95 - very close to Vincent’s bronze medal winning score. Of course he could do significantly worse than that or other guys could score much higher, putting a medal out of reach. But in theory he’s not far out of medal contention.

 

[TontoK]

I’m not predicting or hoping for a medal - nor am I hoping for a lot of splats. But last year, Vincent took bronze with a score of 281.16.

Jason earned 101 in the SP at Nats. He won’t get that internationally, but his PB from last season is nearly 97. So let’s say he can earn 97 in the SP at Worlds. His BV with the downgraded quad (but no fall) at Nats was 71.51. He got super high GOE on almost everything except that quad. But let’s give him an average of +3 GOE, which means we add 30% to his BV, giving him total TES of 92.95. Add PCS of, say, 90. Total: 97 SP + 182.95 FS = 279.95 - very close to Vincent’s bronze medal winning score. Of course he could do significantly worse than that or other guys could score much higher, putting a medal out of reach. But in theory he’s not far out of medal contention.

I guess I'm in a minority in terms of assigning some of Jason's high GOE to National Fever. I think, for the most part, those were earned.

People talk about nationals inflation for all countries, but I wonder how much it comes into play for some of the best skaters. As an example, I'm going to use Nathan Chen's scores from US Nationals and the World Championships last season. Nathan scores 342+ at US Nats and 323+ at Worlds, both record scores at the time. We might say, wow a 20 point difference - outrageous!

But, if I'm remembering correctly, I think his SP and his LP were better at US Nats, to include one jumping pass in the SP and 2 jumping passes in the LP.

Given this, a higher score at US Nats would be natural. Now, was there inflation? Probably, but not as much as the scores would indicate. Honestly, he's one of the very best in the world, and that's going to be true no matter where he skates, and the scores are going to reflect that.

So, if you think Jason's GOE was too high at US Nats, you're going to have to tell me which elements you think would score lower at Worlds. Because, to my semi-educated eye, those elements (minus the 4T, of course) were pristine. And I believe if they are delivered that flawlessly at Worlds, the GOE would still be similarly high. You just can't deny how great they were. The trick, of course, is to repeat that.

 

[theharleyquinn]

I disagree that there aren't solid bronze medal contenders. The men's field may be somewhat unpredictable, but there's a sizable group of men that seem to have gotten themselves organized and could peak at Worlds. With Aliev, Aymoz, Zhou, Uno alone you have quite the task of breaking through. And maybe some of them will be inconsistent, but the likelihood of all of them being inconsistent is a tough order. On top of that, most of this group will get PCS on par with Jason so there's not even the big cushion there. I think the field is actually deeper this year with some men doing much better than they did last season.

 

[Tavi...]

I guess I'm in a minority in terms of assigning some of Jason's high GOE to National Fever. I think, for the most part, those were earned.

People talk about nationals inflation for all countries, but I wonder how much it comes into play for some of the best skaters. As an example, I'm going to use Nathan Chen's scores from US Nationals and the World Championships last season. Nathan scores 342+ at US Nats and 323+ at Worlds, both record scores at the time. We might say, wow a 20 point difference - outrageous!

But, if I'm remembering correctly, I think his SP and his LP were better at US Nats, to include one jumping pass in the SP and 2 jumping passes in the LP.

Given this, a higher score at US Nats would be natural. Now, was there inflation? Probably, but not as much as the scores would indicate. Honestly, he's one of the very best in the world, and that's going to be true no matter where he skates, and the scores are going to reflect that.

So, if you think Jason's GOE was too high at US Nats, you're going to have to tell me which elements you think would score lower at Worlds. Because, to my semi-educated eye, those elements (minus the 4T, of course) were pristine. And I believe if they are delivered that flawlessly at Worlds, the GOE would still be similarly high. You just can't deny how great they were. The trick, of course, is to repeat that.

Did I say I thought they were too high?

But many people would likely argue they were, and that he was the beneficiary of Nats-inflated scoring, so I was simply trying to be somewhat conservative in making my point.

The truth is, we don’t know whether he’ll maintain the same level going forward or how would have been judged internationally for those Nats programs. Hopefully we’ll see at Worlds, if not at 4CCs.

I keep thinking that he’s back to where he was after 2016 Skate America. No not quite the same, but once again his confidence is high and he’s stood up a not fully rotated 4T. Back in 2016 he was derailed by injury. I’m hoping he’ll have a happier outcome this time.

@theharleyquinn, I agree that there are plenty of guys who may contend for bronze. Like Jason, many have struggled this season in one way or another and could easily turn it around. I guess where I differ with you is that I don’t automatically think they’re “better” contenders than Jason. If you look at Aliev’s scores at Europeans and Kevin’s at GPF, it’s clear they’re not untouchable. Of course they and others could potentially do better and score much higher than they have so far. But until they do, I wouldn’t necessarily relegate Jason to also ran status.

 

[Mrs. P]

I disagree that there aren't solid bronze medal contenders. The men's field may be somewhat unpredictable, but there's a sizable group of men that seem to have gotten themselves organized and could peak at Worlds. With Aliev, Aymoz, Zhou, Uno alone you have quite the task of breaking through. And maybe some of them will be inconsistent, but the likelihood of all of them being inconsistent is a tough order. On top of that, most of this group will get PCS on par with Jason so there's not even the big cushion there. I think the field is actually deeper this year with some men doing much better than they did last season.

Yeah certainly if we’re talking fall season Jason who was struggling with the short program and had basically a disaster at NHK, then yeah certainly this would be a monumental task. Also we’re talking someone recovering from a concussion for several months.

If Jason is in US nationals form or better, he may surprise. So yeah I’ll grant that maybe he shouldn’t be considered a bronze medal contender based on everyone’s technical arsenal, but I definitely think he’s in dark horse territory and that can often make things interesting.

In any case you gotta credit Jason for maintaining this level of skating for so long. During the first nationals in Greensboro in 2011 he was the second youngest in the senior men field. At this nationals he was the second oldest and tied for the most number of senior nationals.

 

[StitchMonkey]

I’m not predicting or hoping for a medal - nor am I hoping for a lot of splats. But last year, Vincent took bronze with a score of 281.16.

Jason earned 101 in the SP at Nats. He won’t get that internationally, but his PB from last season is nearly 97. So let’s say he can earn 97 in the SP at Worlds. His BV with the downgraded quad (but no fall) at Nats was 71.51. He got super high GOE on almost everything except that quad. But let’s give him an average of +3 GOE, which means we add 30% to his BV, giving him total TES of 92.95. Add PCS of, say, 90. Total: 97 SP + 182.95 FS = 279.95 - very close to Vincent’s bronze medal winning score. Of course he could do significantly worse than that or other guys could score much higher, putting a medal out of reach. But in theory he’s not far out of medal contention.

To add on to that. Here is an short list of the top scores this season.


1 Nathan CHEN USA 335.30
2 Yuzuru HANYU JPN 322.59
3 Kevin AYMOZ FRA 275.63
4 Dmitri ALIEV RUS 272.89
5 Boyang JIN CHN 268.31
6 Alexander SAMARIN RUS 265.10
7 Nam NGUYEN CAN 262.77
8 Keegan MESSING CAN 256.02
9 Shoma UNO JPN 255.23
10 Shun SATO JPN 255.11



... who else are we really thinking is a contender for bronze? Yes, Vincent is a contender and missing, but Alexander, Nam, Keegan, and Shun are not likely to be at worlds. Pretty much everyone is a wildcard.

I think if he skates likes he did at Nationals, 280 is very plausible... and only two men have beat that this season.