2019-20 U.S. Men's Figure Skating

[klena]

Torgashev, Malinin and Naumov are a great team for Jr.W.

And all ex Russians, it’s so funny

 

[Skater Boy]

If we're taking US Nationals scores into account for Jason, I don't see any reason not to take other Nationals scores into account too.
Shoma Uno got 290.57 at JNats. JNats inflation is way smaller than USNats. One could argue it is non existent. He achieved these scores with a non maxed out SP (4T-2T instead of 4T-3T, which he landed repeatedly at official practices), and a flawed FS (to which he may add another quad by Worlds if he is consistent with this layout).
Kevin Aymoz got 286.45 at French Nats. He achieved this score without being super clean and yes, French Nats are inflated.
Junhwan Cha got 278.54 at KNats. Again, KNats is the other nationals with almost no inflation.
It does feel a bit disrespectful to at least those three skaters to completely ignore their showing at Nationals in this discussion.

To me, Schindler list is absolutely fantastic. It has joined Riverdance at US Nationals and the Piano at Skate America as one of my go to program to admire Jason's talent. I also think it will withstand years. But in my view, it does not make him a podium contender at worlds with at best one quad in a program. I also think an international judging panel might very well have given the silver to Tomoki, even though Jason had the performance of the night. I also think Aliev's performances at Euros would have beaten Jason's in an international competition (or at least it should have because Dima was clean on both programs with way higher BV than Jason and he has great skating skills and artistry). Jason also has a huge consistency problem, like the others.

I am going to stop commenting on this thread because it is a US men thread, so not really the best place to comment on the qualities and flaws of other skaters, especially after the US Men brought down the house at their Nationals. We will have a lot more information on scoring potentials at 4CC, and we will get an idea of Shoma's level at Challenge Cup. Best of luck to Jason, Tomoki and Camden at 4CC. Jason has a good chance to podium here with much less competition than at Worlds (no Nathan, no Shoma, no Kevin, no Vincent, no Russian men).

Regardless of national inflation or whatever people think Jason is a ge - quad or n ot and he has a great chance at 4CCs. I hink Vincent was lucky they placed him on the team I would have made him go to 4ccs and see how he did. The US has a very strong team with the defending gold and bronze medallists and Jason. Japan could be equal in power almost with Yuzuru and Shoma. Interesting the 7th and 8th place skaers are from Canada and they might not even make worlds. I will assume Jason and Vincent would beat the Canadian man. I am curious to see if Jason medals at 4CCs without other top skaters like Vincent, Nahan, Shoma and the struggling Canadians Jason should win a medal - anything less would be a let down

 

[1111bm]

How do you figure?

[...] He would get bullets for very good height/distance and the preceding spread eagle. I don’t think it matches the musical structure but a judge might award it. So starting GOE is +2 (or +3).

[...] Would either of you care to point out the specific GOE bullets/reductions you would have given to Chen’s 4T-Eu-3S, with respect to the rules above?

Hey, you already know the answer to your question!

He didn't have EXCEPTIONAL height and length, because surely there was someone else in this competition (and if not in this one, then certainly in some other comp) who jumped higher and with more distance, so Nathan didn't have THE highest and longest jump.
So at least karne for sure wouldn't award him that specific GOE bullet.
And I'm just gonna assume, that there was also something 'wrong' or unworthy about his spreadeagle as well...

 

[el henry]

And all ex Russians, it’s so funny

Ex Russians? I am afraid you have been misinformed.

Andrew Torgashev was born and raised in Southern Florida. Ilia was born in the NoVa burbs of DC I believe, and Maxim was born and raised in Connecticut.

Did their parents emigrate from Russia to the US? Indeed, and I would bet they are all proud of their Russian heritage. But their immigrant heritage just makes them all American boys not “ex” anything

 

[Skater Boy]

And all ex Russians, it’s so funny

Aren't two of them the children of top level figure skaters???

 

[skatenewbie]

Aren't two of them the children of top level figure skaters???

Naumov parents is GPF and World Champion. Malinin mother is GPF and 4CC champion while Torgashev parents is World Junior medalist

 

[Mrs. P]

Regardless of national inflation or whatever people think Jason is a ge - quad or n ot and he has a great chance at 4CCs. I hink Vincent was lucky they placed him on the team I would have made him go to 4ccs and see how he did. The US has a very strong team with the defending gold and bronze medallists and Jason. Japan could be equal in power almost with Yuzuru and Shoma. Interesting the 7th and 8th place skaers are from Canada and they might not even make worlds. I will assume Jason and Vincent would beat the Canadian man. I am curious to see if Jason medals at 4CCs without other top skaters like Vincent, Nahan, Shoma and the struggling Canadians Jason should win a medal - anything less would be a let down

Not to me.

1.) If you look at the personal best scores, Jason is 5th, but it’s a super tight field. You have Yuzu at 300+, then Boyang at 270+ and then a whole lot of people in the 260+ range, Jason is one of them.
2.) It’s a huge ask for a skater to reach that level of performance so soon, especially considering the time difference. Not saying Jason is definitely gonna bomb, but historically 4CC hasn’t been an amazing comp for him. The notable example was in 2018, where clearly it was a redemption skate from that heartbreaking nationals and he got bronze. Otherwise, he’s been no higher than 5th.

I know I just spent time arguing that he has a very outside shot at worlds bronze, but the chaos of the men’s field along with the quick turnaround after nationals, means he could easily finish OTP at 4CC. I have very tempered expectations, I hope he proves me wrong.

 

[lariko]

And all ex Russians, it’s so funny

2nd generation, but, yes, it’s great to see them doing well.

 

[CanadianSkaterGuy]

Hey, you already know the answer to your question!

He didn't have EXCEPTIONAL height and length, because surely there was someone else in this competition (and if not in this one, then certainly in some other comp) who jumped higher and with more distance, so Nathan didn't have THE highest and longest jump.
So at least karne for sure wouldn't award him that specific GOE bullet.
And I'm just gonna assume, that there was also something 'wrong' or unworthy about his spreadeagle as well...

Too bad US nats didn’t have the Japanese cameras and their super incredibly accurate, unbiased, irrefutable IceScope height/distance calculations!

Don’t forget the -1 to -3 mandatory GOE reduction on all jumps depending on how much one dislikes a skater! :sarcasm:

Come to think of it, that wasn’t a Jonathan Cassar level spread eagle on the entrance so definitely no GOE bullet should be awarded there.
Ah okay, -2/-3 makes sense now.

 

[Skater Boy]

He probably really does need to do a clean, fully rotated quad to be taken completely seriously by the judges. That will help his scoring more than you might think. It's not 2010 where Jason might have won gold at Worlds.

Nothing against Evan but a clean Jason with no quad is certainly more valuable than a clean Evan with no quad. Then again if Buttle competed or Patrick Chan skated relatively clean with two quad toes ore heck just clean with triples well Jason might be fighitn for a medal or podium But as for now he is the cream of the crop pc wise. Nathan and Hanyu are good but no match for Brown.


T

 

[TontoK]

Not to me.

1.) If you look at the personal best scores, Jason is 5th, but it’s a super tight field. You have Yuzu at 300+, then Boyang at 270+ and then a whole lot of people in the 260+ range, Jason is one of them.
2.) It’s a huge ask for a skater to reach that level of performance so soon, especially considering the time difference. Not saying Jason is definitely gonna bomb, but historically 4CC hasn’t been an amazing comp for him. The notable example was in 2018, where clearly it was a redemption skate from that heartbreaking nationals and he got bronze. Otherwise, he’s been no higher than 5th.

I know I just spent time arguing that he has a very outside shot at worlds bronze, but the chaos of the men’s field along with the quick turnaround after nationals, means he could easily finish OTP at 4CC. I have very tempered expectations, I hope he proves me wrong.

I know people are tired of hearing about the Jason quad, and I'm one of them.

However, as you noted, the field is pretty tight, and considering the quality he just demonstrated, there is no question that it could mean the difference at 4CC and beyond.

His downgraded attempt at USNats earned less than 3 points. I saw videotape of practice successes that were probably GOE +2 or so. If he can deliver, that's an 8-9 point swing on one element alone.

I'm really interested in how it plays out. I completely agree that the men's field is unpredictable.

 

[el henry]

2nd generation, but, yes, it’s great to see them doing well.

Absolutely (my fandom of Andrew T. being known far and wide) But second generation or eighth generation, they are all the same as Americans. Andrew is no more “ex Russian” than Nathan is “ex Chinese”. They are both American, proud of their heritage as I am sure all our skaters are:thumbsup:

Our junior Worlds team, like the men in general, exhibit the breadth and diversity and different styles of the US men. And if one of them (OK, well, I’ll be honest, if Andrew) could podium,

 

[Bookseller]

Not to me.

1.) If you look at the personal best scores, Jason is 5th, but it’s a super tight field. You have Yuzu at 300+, then Boyang at 270+ and then a whole lot of people in the 260+ range, Jason is one of them.
2.) It’s a huge ask for a skater to reach that level of performance so soon, especially considering the time difference. Not saying Jason is definitely gonna bomb, but historically 4CC hasn’t been an amazing comp for him. The notable example was in 2018, where clearly it was a redemption skate from that heartbreaking nationals and he got bronze. Otherwise, he’s been no higher than 5th.

I know I just spent time arguing that he has a very outside shot at worlds bronze, but the chaos of the men’s field along with the quick turnaround after nationals, means he could easily finish OTP at 4CC. I have very tempered expectations, I hope he proves me wrong.

It's a competition for Silver and Bronze and Boyang has the edge for silver IF he skates well. He has the potential to skate well. The others all cluster around 260 internationally, so it will be a matter of who skates best on the two days of competition. Any of them can medal. And any of them may not. I want to see Jason skate as well or better than at Nats. I'm sure that's what he wants also. It's quick turnaround. But I honestly feel that his score at Nats was not major national inflation. They dinged him good on that under-rotated quad and he earned all those GOEs. But he may be judged more harshly at 4CCs. It remains to be seen. It is a competition. Other than Yuzu expected to win, it's wide open. But I believe that Jason can medal. In a way, I am a little surprised that he's doing 4CCs, but Brian and Tracy will be there anyway with Jun and Yuzu, so why not! I say go for it. And he will.

 

[karne]

It's a competition for Silver and Bronze and Boyang has the edge for silver IF he skates well. He has the potential to skate well.

The thing is, the last couple of years suggests we're far more likely to see Jason skate well than Boyang. Much as I like Boyang, he hasn't exactly been a pillar of great skates in the last few years.

 

[MintGreen]

Define "far more likely"? Here are the results of the most recent biggest events that both were in. I only see that Boyang held a 3-0 over Jason.

2019 4cc
Boyang: 92.17 181.34 273.51 2nd
Jason: 86.57 172.32 258.89 5th

2019 World:
Boyang: 84.26 178.45 262.71 5th
Jason: 96.81 157.34 254.15 9th

2018 4cc
Boyang: 100.17 200.78 300.95 1st
Jason: 89.78 179.44 269.22 3rd

The thing is, the last couple of years suggests we're far more likely to see Jason skate well than Boyang. Much as I like Boyang, he hasn't exactly been a pillar of great skates in the last few years.

 

[CanadianSkaterGuy]

The thing is, the last couple of years suggests we're far more likely to see Jason skate well than Boyang. Much as I like Boyang, he hasn't exactly been a pillar of great skates in the last few years.

Huh? Sure Jin hasn’t been good enough to make a major podium these past two seasons. And this season he hasn’t exactly lit up the ice as well as he can. But he’s beaten Brown more times in head-to-heads the past 2 years.

2018 Four Continents
Jin - 1st (300.95)
Brown - 3rd (269.22)

2018 IdF
Brown - 2nd (256.33)
Jin - 9th (208.89)

2019 Four Continents
Jin - 2nd (273.51)
Brown - 5th (258.89)

2019 Worlds
Jin - 5th (262.71)
Brown - 9th (254.15)

2019 Skate America
Brown - 2nd (255.09)
Jin - 5th (224.98)

Jin has scored over 260 twice this season. He’s quite mercurial but so is Brown. Each had a strong GP and a poor GP.

For comparison: Jin’s international total average this season is 245.69. Brown’s is 242.92. As far as season’s best totals goes Jin’s is 261.53 (CoC) and Brown’s is 255.09 (SkAm).

Jin has also had a strong SP and FS (in separate competitions, mind you) this season - 101.09 and 176.10 (both PBs... total of 276.19). Brown’s international SBs this year are 83.45 and 171.64 (both at Skate America, total of 255.09).

Brown can definitely beat Jin at 4CC if he skates as well as US Nationals and Jin isn’t a sure bet to skate well. I wouldn’t bet money on it though. And it is certainly an unsubstantiated statement to say that Brown is “far more likely” to skate well than Boyang.

 

[Mrs. P]

So all the numbers say is that Jason can be anywhere from 2nd to 10th at 4CC and anywhere from 3rd to 13th at Worlds. It's not that deep.

Honestly, it's really hard to adequately predict where Jason will be because all the usual bets have been off since 1.) He switched to TCC and started relearning technique, therefore spending a lot of time having to get used to it and regain the consistency he had before and 2.) Lost a considerable amount of training time early in the season and were still feeling the effects of the concussion up until December.

At one time Jason could be relied upon to capitalize on the inconsistency of the men's field, (and we saw that at 2019 Worlds with him finishing second in the SP) but really, at this point, he's just as inconsistent -- whether it's because of injuries, new technique or just plain mental nerves -- as the rest of them, so I don't see the point of declaring he's definitely going to beat so-and-so.

(again, I don't think it's mutually exclusive to say that he has an outside shot at bronze and admitting he could easily finish lower because he too is part of the chaotic men's field).

The SP is a week from today, we'll find out soon enough.

 

[Ice Dance]

It's the men. These guys can finish all over the frigging place.

(Most recent example: Aymoz. Taking over the crown from last year's GPF bronze medalist: Cha).

 

[Mathman]

*

Nice avatar. :yes:

Did you know that Jay Silverheels is in the Canadian Lacrosse Hall of Fame for his athletic exploits in the 1930s? he played on the same team (the Toronto Tecumsehs) with his three brothers, Beef, Porky and Chubby Smith.

 

[Makemi]

I agree that this likely isn't the right place to talk about it but I'm finding this discussion fascinating. To add my two cents, it really does highlight how incredibly unpredictable the men have been this season. Just in the last two months alone we've had:
* Boyang taking 6th and 1st on the GP and barely qualifying for the GPF
* Dima going from 6th at GPF with a 220.04 to 1st at Euros with a 272.89
* Kevin Aymoz going from bronze at the GPF to not qualifying for the Euros Free Skate
* Roman Sadovsky taking gold over Nam and Keegan at Canadian nationals
* Shoma taking gold over Yuzu at Japanese Nationals
* Samarin left off Russia's world team in favor of Artur Danielian (who competed on the JGP)

The only certainty is there is no certainty! (Or well and Yuzu finally taking his 4CC title.) Jason has a good a chance as anyone at getting on the podium. Especially if he can duplicate his Nationals performance. (I am happy and also terrified at how many people in the prediction thread have Jason pegged for silver. Good luck Jason!).

Speaking of the Juniors, I like the selection for Junior World Team but I am super confused about Ilia. Team USA reported he had withdrawn from YOG due to illness, then I see on FSU that Sylvia had reported that he had actually injured his back and thus withdrew from Nationals. I don't think he was at the World Junior Team Camp so I don't know if he's actually better or if USFS is hoping he's better by JWC? So confused. (Otherwise Dihn Tran is 1st alternate).