2020-21 Russian Ladies' Figure Skating

[Novalis]

If Kami doesn't learn a new quad, then this is my suggested jump layout:

In SP: as it is with 3A

In FP:
4T-3T
3A
3Lo
2A

4T-eu-3S
3Lz-3T
3F

With little more practise I bet she could pull off a second half 4T. Now she can also add 3T to her first quad (only one 3Lz). And the last 3F is the safety net if one of the combos fail.

Edit1: I hope they start learning this jump layout or similar as soon as she returns from Kazan. 7 weeks or so practise time to Russian Cup Final. I'm starting to also think skipping Junior Nats is the right call. Let her be only a senior this season.

Edit 2: Did some calculations: this layout would give her 6 points more in jump base value (from 56.00 to 62.02)

 

[Vilord]

Thanks! I couldn't remember for what competitions it mattered and for which ones it didn't. I know it does for the junior grand prix and Junior worlds. That does mean that while Sofia S will be able to qualify through competing in the JGPF (assuming she makes it), Sofia A will have to qualify for the Russian Cup.

All of the following skaters are eligable for ther JGP 2021 (if there is one... but with vaccines here I think there is hope for it):
Sofia Samodelkina (early 07)
Sofia Akatieva (late 07)
Adelya Petrosyan (early 07)
Elizaveta Beretsovskaya (late 07)
Veronika Zhillina (early 08)
Sofia Muravyova (late 06)
Alina Gorbacheva (late 07)
Elizaveta Osokina (late 06)

Joining them could be any of the this years junior if they dont move up to senior like:
Kamilla Valieva (definitely going to senior) (early 06)
Daria Usaschova (also most likely to go into senior) (early 06)
Maiia Kromykh (probably depends on if she gets a GP spot or not otherwise I could see her staying on the JGP for one more season) (early 06)
Anna Frolova (same as Maiia, Its going to be hard to get a GP sopt and if she dosent I could see her staying an extra year on the JGP) (late 05)

 

[Autumn Leaves]

Russian ladies don't seem to have an issue becoming 'stars' if they are successful even if its limited success, my understanding is that all 3 of the new seniors from last year (Kostornaia, Shcherbakova, Trusova) have sponsors already, they were doing ice shows in foreign countries before they ever stepped foot on international competitive ice as senior skaters. And I don't think any of them specifically would be 'huge' for Russia if they win, at this point with the knowledgeable figure skating fan Russia is expected to win at the ladies event. The only thing a Kostornaia/Shcherbakova/Trusova OGM for Russia would do is to quiet down the '15 year old one-shot wonders' talk because if 1 of them wins they will be 17-18 years old that have several seasons competing as a senior internationally. Whereas Valieva if she goes to and wins OGM then it's another first-year 15-year old senior, and more fuel to the 'raise the age limit' conversation; now that I think about it, it would likely be in Russia's best interest to push an over 15-year old skater for the Olympics regardless of Valieva (or Usacheva or Kromykh) success in the 2021-2022 season.

I think it is best for the sport if the best skater at the time wins, not if a federation pushes an athlete, young or older, for any political reasons. Kamila seems well equipped to fight for Olympic gold and I hope she, as well as the others, have a fair chance for winning it.

 

[Gabby30]

Well Valieva score 79.99 points with a fall on her triple axel in the SP at this Nationals, so with a clean triple axel she might've been able to win here. Adding 2 triple axels in the FS in addition to the 2 quads she does might be asking too much, and she's only landed the jump once in competition at this point so there's still a question about how consistent of a jump it will be plus her quad has had consistency issues, and Trusova whose been doing quads longer has struggled with being consistent and clean on her jumps if she adds more than 3 quads.



Agree, interestingly I remember the 'puberty monster coming to get them' predictions were that Kostornaia would be the best 1 to survive because triple axels have a track record of being done post-puberty and she's the one struggling whereas Shcherbakova and Trusova have both grown this year and their quads are still here and Shcherbakova's flip has gotten better than what she did last year.

"Puberty" doesn't last for only a few months....
Shcherbakova only had one good competition so far ( nationals), which doesn't say a lot about her form in 3 months. Trusova is as inconsistent as always, but i don't know where you see Kostornaia "struggling"? Just because she doesn't have her 3A back yet? She is still the same skater as before, but people's perception changes all the time Interestingly, you mocking the "puberty" prediction of others, but in the end you're doing the same thing with Kostornaia in this case Let's not fly to high just because of one competition

 

[Vilord]

I think it is best for the sport if the best skater at the time wins, not if a federation pushes an athlete, young or older, for any political reasons. Kamila seems well equipped to fight for Olympic gold and I hope she, as well as the others, have a fair chance for winning it.

Well it soley depend on what you value as good for the sport. I think that if another 15yo russian would win this olympics that will be 3rd time in a row and would give a lot of traction for the raise the age limit discussions. I would not be surprissed if Kamilla winning would be the last drop that makes the cup spill over and making the isu raise the age limit to 17 or 18 (probaly in increments).
This is not something that I want since it would make juniors both overcrowded and also more interesting than seniors which I dont think will be good for the sport.

 

[Jontor]

We don't have any SB lists this year, so here is the best scores we have seen so far (without bonuses!)

I know it can't be compared as this is national competitions mixed with international - but what to do in these SB-less times?

1. Anna Shcherbakova RUS 264.10 - Russian Nationals
2. Kamila Valieva RUS 254.01 - Russian Nationals
3. Alexandra Trusova RUS 246.37 . Russian Nationals
4. Rika Kihira, JPN 234.24 - Japanese Nationals
5. Daria Usacheva RUS 230.56 - Russian Nationals
6. Sofia Samodelkina RUS 230.28 - RC Stage Five Junior
7. Kaori Sakamoto JPN 229.51 - GP NHK Trophy
8. Alena Kostornaia RUS 225.31 - RC Stage Four
9. Sofia Akatieva RUS 223.83 - RC Stage One Junior
10. Elizaveta Tuktamysheva RUS 223.39 - GP Rostelecom Cup
11. Mariah Bell USA 212.89 - GP Skate America
12. Maiia Khromykh RUS 211.91 - Russian Nationals
13. Bradie Tennell USA 211.07 - GP Skate America
14. Satoko Miyahara JPN 209.75 - Japanese Nationals
15. Audrey Shin USA 206.15 - GP Skate America
16. Anna Frolova RUS 206.01 - RC Stage One
17. Karen Chen USA 204.90 - GP Skate America
18. Rino Matsuike JPN 204.74 - Japanese Nationals
19. Elizaveta Nugumanova RUS 204.63 - Russian Nationals
20. Mai Mihara JPN 203.65 - Japanese Nationals
21. Ksenia Tsibinova RUS 203.56 - Russian Nationals
22. Elizaveta Berestovskaya RUS 202.19 - RC Stage Three Junior
23. Adelia Petrosyan RUS 202.18 - RC Stage Three Junior
24. Mana Kawabe JPN 201.58 - Japanese Nationals
25. Wakaba Higuchi JPN 200.98 - GP NHK Trophy
26. Viktoria Safonova BLR 200.66 - Minsk Ice Star
27. Anastasia Guliakova RUS 199.03 - GP Rostelecom Cup
28. Loena Hendrickx BEL 198.87 - CS Budapest Trophy
29. Maria Talalaikina RUS 197.32 - Russian Nationals
30. Sofia Samodurova RUS 197.19 - RC Stage Four
31. Sofia Muravieva RUS 197.10 - RC Stage Two Junior
32. Stanislava Konstantinova RUS 196.83 - RC Stage Two
33. Anastasia Tarakanova RUS 195.27 - RC Stage Five
34. Yuhana Yokoi JPN 194.22 - Japanese Nationals
35. Alina Gorbacheva RUS 193.68 - RC Stage Four Junior
36. Veronika Zhilina RUS 191.45 - RC Stage Four Junior
37. Elizaveta Osokina RUS 191.37 - RC Stage Five Junior
38. Agneta Latushkina RUS 191.03 - RC Stage Five Junior
39. Valeria Ovchinnikova RUS 190.89 - RC Stage Three Junior
40. Yuna Shiraiwa JPN 190.39 - Japanese Nationals
41. Amber Glenn USA 190.09 - GP Skate America

Russian Ladies scoring 170-190 points:
Valeria Shulskaya 189.02, Maria Zakharova 187.20, Maria Paramonova 186.11, Stanislava Molchanova 184.64, Natalia Lagutova 180.50, Polina Plahotnaya 179.90, Polina Sviridenko 177.43, Kamila Sultanmagomedova 174.34, Daria Sadkova 173.88, Anastasia Morozova 173.28, Valeria Kostina 172.00, Maria Dmitrieva 170.09

 

[flanker]

I think the realistic layout for Kamila is 3A in SP and 2x4T in the FS.
If they really want to test their luck, they may put a 3A in the FS as well but that already sounds risky to me.
Both quads and 3A take a huge amount of concentration and strength hence why usually done at the beginning ot the program. She would need to get more stable and comfortable in her 4T if she wants a 3A in the FS.

I'm glad that Eteri is her coach and not some internet commentator who wants to build a roof on top of Kamila. Anna showed that she needs to move forward, and fortunately Eteri believes in forward motion. Adding a 3A to free is perfectly possible and so is learning a new quad. Anna and Sasha have both had 3 or more ultra-c in a program, so why not Kamila.

And Kami's 4T is pretty damn solid. That Rippon already has stabilized it. I don't know if you missed it, but there was this competition a week ago and those quads were gorgeous

And she landed them 4 weeks ago as well (though not quite as gorgeous)

As for Kamila's 3A, I guess they will first try to stabilize it in the SP and then, when she will start to land it regularly, they will start to potentially add it into the free program.

I'm also curious whether Anna tries 3A in training. Of course here primary goal is to add three quads into the free program again, but her 2A seems to be very solid.

 

[kolyadafan2002]

As for Kamila's 3A, I guess they will first try to stabilize it in the SP and then, when she will start to land it regularly, they will start to potentially add it into the free program.

I'm also curious whether Anna tries 3A in training. Of course here primary goal is to add three quads into the free program again, but her 2A seems to be very solid.

Her 2A lacks height for 3A. I think as far as Anna's jumps go, the 2A isn't that good (or at least not better than the average Russian girl).
However, I never thought Kamila would get a 3A and she proved me wrong, Anna might do the same.

 

[Jontor]

As for Kamila's 3A, I guess they will first try to stabilize it in the SP and then, when she will start to land it regularly, they will start to potentially add it into the free program.

I'm also curious whether Anna tries 3A in training. Of course here primary goal is to add three quads into the free program again, but her 2A seems to be very solid.

If Kamila had landed that 3A in the short at Nationals she would have been up there with Anna but I don't think she would have won.

I also think that the next step for Kamila is to add the 3A in the long, but if Anna can add a 3rd stable quad she will still be behind.

I don't think Anna is training the 3A much, and I think that's good. She can concentrate on working on only two difficult quads, the Lutz and the Flip, and I think that is the best for getting them consistent.

And as a sidenote I think that is Sasha's problem. She is working on too many quads plus the 3A. The odds of getting them all stable are slim IMO.

 

[Novalis]

All of the following skaters are eligable for ther JGP 2021 (if there is one... but with vaccines here I think there is hope for it):
Sofia Samodelkina (early 07)
Sofia Akatieva (late 07)
Adelya Petrosyan (early 07)
Elizaveta Beretsovskaya (late 07)
Veronika Zhillina (early 08)
Sofia Muravyova (late 06)
Alina Gorbacheva (late 07)
Elizaveta Osokina (late 06)

Joining them could be any of the this years junior if they dont move up to senior like:
Kamilla Valieva (definitely going to senior) (early 06)
Daria Usaschova (also most likely to go into senior) (early 06)
Maiia Kromykh (probably depends on if she gets a GP spot or not otherwise I could see her staying on the JGP for one more season) (early 06)
Anna Frolova (same as Maiia, Its going to be hard to get a GP sopt and if she dosent I could see her staying an extra year on the JGP) (late 05)

I think that you could use the word "definitely" in Dasha's case as well. Maybe Kamila and Dasha should skip Junior Nationals, because they'll be in the senior GP next season. Maya and Anna Frolova should probably go. Good opportunity for Maya to land a quad.

 

[nussnacker]

I would not be surprissed if Kamilla winning would be the last drop that makes the cup spill over and making the isu raise the age limit to 17 or 18 (probaly in increments).

I don’t think this decision hangs on Kamila. Whether or not she wins, the question will be raised. They’re going to use any medal she gets as an argument for raising the age limit, so nothing depends on her win.
Jesus, they even went on to use Alexandrovskaya for their argument, although her death had nothing to do with age and she went senior after the new proposed age limit. So I don’t think it matters to them which “case” they have to use to further the new rule.

 

[chasingneverland]

"Puberty" doesn't last for only a few months....
Shcherbakova only had one good competition so far ( nationals), which doesn't say a lot about her form in 3 months. Trusova is as inconsistent as always, but i don't know where you see Kostornaia "struggling"? Just because she doesn't have her 3A back yet? She is still the same skater as before, but people's perception changes all the time Interestingly, you mocking the "puberty" prediction of others, but in the end you're doing the same thing with Kostornaia in this case Let's not fly to high just because of one competition

I disagree entirely that she's only had one good competition. Where do you get that assumption? She's been consistent and adding more difficulty with each competition she's done. She in fact hasn't HAD a BAD competition this year.

It isn't just Aliona's 3A. (Others haven't regained their full jump layouts from last year either - really only Kamila has and added to it. Sasha had previously but due to injury can't do it all and Shcherbakova due to illness hasn't added back her 4Lz-3T (but did learn a 4F-3T)). It's her injury beforehand. It's the fact that Aliona's struggled to regain her performance qualities and looks more laboured in her skating/spins/etc that are the worrying parts. That's the concerning part because that's injury related. It's the part that Aliona is a year old and therefore has one more year of hard training on her body making injuries/illnesses increasingly difficult to recover from. It's the fact that she's under-rotating her jumps now. It's the fact that she hasn't had a good competition yet. (Not just in her 3A - that's understandable. It's her spins/jumps/performance quality.) It's the fact that we haven't seen a complete return of her previous skating skills and performance and interpretation qualities - the part that made her truly magic - yet. Finally, it's the fact that her peak was probably a cancelled World's.

 

[chasingneverland]

Well it soley depend on what you value as good for the sport. I think that if another 15yo russian would win this olympics that will be 3rd time in a row and would give a lot of traction for the raise the age limit discussions. I would not be surprissed if Kamilla winning would be the last drop that makes the cup spill over and making the isu raise the age limit to 17 or 18 (probaly in increments).
This is not something that I want since it would make juniors both overcrowded and also more interesting than seniors which I dont think will be good for the sport

Russia's goal will be to send their best regardless of age. And the ISU will make that argument regardless. Besides, it's not just in Russia where promising skaters are juniors. And besides the perception of Anna and Sasha is still that they ARE the young skaters.

 

[chasingneverland]

Her 2A lacks height for 3A. I think as far as Anna's jumps go, the 2A isn't that good (or at least not better than the average Russian girl).
However, I never thought Kamila would get a 3A and she proved me wrong, Anna might do the same.

Yeah while I don't think Anna is seriously training the 3A right now (especially due to pneumonia), it must be said that Anna's triples (3Lz and 3F) in general don't look high enough to add another rotation. However, she actually adds height in her 4Lz and 4F.

 

[Novalis]

Yeah while I don't think Anna is seriously training the 3A right now (especially due to pneumonia), it must be said that Anna's triples (3Lz and 3F) in general don't look high enough to add another rotation. However, she actually adds height in her 4Lz and 4F.

This is a fine point: Kamila's 2A doesn't suggest a 3A and Anna's 3Lz and 3F do not suggest 4Lz and 4F. But here we are.

 

[starlight97]

I'm glad that Eteri is her coach and not some internet commentator who wants to build a roof on top of Kamila. Anna showed that she needs to move forward, and fortunately Eteri believes in forward motion. Adding a 3A to free is perfectly possible and so is learning a new quad. Anna and Sasha have both had 3 or more ultra-c in a program, so why not Kamila.

And Kami's 4T is pretty damn solid.

It's clearly not about building a roof, it's about going for the layout that gives her the best shot.
As we've witnessed with Sasha for 2 years now, it's not the highest planned tech that wins, but reasonable difficulty and consistency + going clean.

That said, it is not the same adding a third quad to a program where you already jump two, than it is adding a 3A to a program with 2 ultra c. The 3A requires a completely different jump technique, completely different momentum and gives a completely different and "unnatural" feeling in the air. She would be the first woman in the world to land a quad and a 3A in the same program.
If she can do that reliably and consistently, great. If she can't and will get into a Trusova inconsistency level, she'll only hurt her chances.
Adding that her 4T is not, in fact, truly consistent from what we can see, while it is stunning when landed.

 

[starlight97]

This is a fine point: Kamila's 2A doesn't suggest a 3A and Anna's 3Lz and 3F do not suggest 4Lz and 4F. But here we are.

Interestingly unlike Mao and Liza who basically stand still before their 3A and try to jump high, Kamila jumps long. It's the distance she jumps with her flow and long legs that's supposed to give the time for the 3 rotations.
Alena imo has the perfect mix of both which makes her 3A have height, flow and coverage, absolutely lovely.

 

[skatesofgold]

Well it soley depend on what you value as good for the sport. I think that if another 15yo russian would win this olympics that will be 3rd time in a row and would give a lot of traction for the raise the age limit discussions. I would not be surprissed if Kamilla winning would be the last drop that makes the cup spill over and making the isu raise the age limit to 17 or 18 (probaly in increments).
This is not something that I want since it would make juniors both overcrowded and also more interesting than seniors which I dont think will be good for the sport.

Third time in a row? Adelina Sotnikova was 17, so she wasn't a first year senior.

 

[Novalis]

Adding that her 4T is not, in fact, truly consistent from what we can see, while it is stunning when landed.

What!?! What does one have to do to have "a truly consistent quad"? Jump it with no warm up in spotlights? Oh, wait...

If you count the two quad toes of her in Galas she has now landed 7 of them in a row. This is rare for anyone with any quad. This coinsides with rippon technique very nicely. No quads are entirely consistent, but hers seems to be unusually so.

Otherwise your post has a point. But having both a quad and a triksel in same program would be a great challenge. Maybe that's what will be her speciality

 

[Novalis]

We actually went to unlock this thread last month, but it didn't transfer over for some reason when we moved to XF. It will have to be created again. Sorry about that.

There was one other post that was in "draft" that didn't carry over as well, but don't remember which one.

So, I'm working on this right now