2020-21 Russian Ladies' Figure Skating

[readernick]

Anna's SP:
-2A 3.3
-3F 5.3
-FCSP4 3.2
-3Lz+3Lo (xbonus) 11.88
-LSP4 2.7
-STSQ4 3.9
-CCOSP4 3.5
Anna's SP BV: 33.78

Rika's SP: (her GPF layout, but I replaced the 3loop with a 3lutz)
-3A 8
-3F+3T 9.5
-FCSP4 3.2
-3Lz (xbonus) 6.49
-CCOSP4 3.5
-STSQ4 3.9
-LSP4 2.7
Rika's SP BV: 37.29




Anna's FS: (her layout at nationals)
-4Lz 11.5
-4F 11
-3F+3T 9.5
-2A 3.3
-CHSQ1 3
-FCCOSP4 3.5
-3Lz+3Lo (xbonus) 11.88
-3F+3S (xbonus) 11.11
-3Lz (Xbonus) 6.49
-FCSP4 3.2
-STSQ4 3.9
-CCOSP4 3.5
Anna's FS BV: 81.88

Rika's FS: (the same layout as GPF)
-4S 9.7
-3A+2T 9.3
-3F 5.3
-FCSP4 3.2
-3A 8
-STSQ4 3.9
-3F+3T (xbonus) 10.45
-2A+3S (xbonus) 8.91
-CCOSP4 3.5
-CHSQ1 3
-3Lo (xbonus) 5.39
-LSP4 2.7
Rika's FS BV: 73.35

Anna's combined score: 115.66
Rika's combined score: 111.13
You can replace any jump in Rika's FS with a 3Lz , Rika's BV (SP+FS combined) would still be lower than Anna's BV

It's not a big difference in BV to what you mentioned but I don't think that is Rika's planned layout. Based on Japanese Nationals, I believe she is planning to attempt:

4S
3A+2T
3FEu3S
3Lo
3A
3F+3T
3Lz

She won't do a 2A. So her BV will be slightly higher at a little over 112 across the two programs. She will be at an disadvantage, but it isn't particularly extreme. It really just comes down to who skates clean.

 

[alexocfp]

I love it. Most everyone has already written Liza off.

The only one of the contenders who has actually won it. Let her fly under the radar and surprise everyone come game time.

One thing I know, never count her out.

 

[nussnacker]

there are several others like LIubov Rubtsova that I could note

Not everyone realizes it, but Lyuba is not only a talent in singles, but also in pairs:

https://www.instagram.com/p/CJeiDJuJ-4u/

 

[chasingneverland]

I love it. Most everyone has already written Liza off.

The only one of the contenders who has actually won it. Let her fly under the radar and surprise everyone come game time.

One thing I know, never count her out.

I don't think anyone has written Liza off. But she doesn't have the BV to beat Anna/Sasha/Rika if they land even one quad (as long as they rotate everything else). It's just math..

When she won no one had quads. And she already said she's not upgrading.

Basically Anna, Sasha, and Rika need to not land a single quad..

EDIT: Liza also has a disadvantage in that she's not going to be in the final group for the SP.

 

[Amei]

I love it. Most everyone has already written Liza off.

The only one of the contenders who has actually won it. Let her fly under the radar and surprise everyone come game time.

One thing I know, never count her out.

I don't think anyone's writing her off for a medal per se, but there's a level of acknowledgment that Tuktamysheva historically doesn't have the most optimal layout and of the contenders she needs the most help from her competitors to win - she has to be clean (which she has struggled to do this season) and her competitors like Trusova and Shcherbakova have to make multiple mistakes

 

[flanker]

@Blades of Passion now I hope @flanker is back soon too so I can have the popcorn-y fights again

You summoned me?

 

[Skatesocs]

You summoned me?

He's back! He's back!!

 

[Decoder]

You summoned me?

Welcome .................................................back !!!

 

[starlight97]

I love it. Most everyone has already written Liza off.

The only one of the contenders who has actually won it. Let her fly under the radar and surprise everyone come game time.

One thing I know, never count her out.

I doubt anybody has written Liza off for a medal, the field is not nearly as stacked as it could have been or would have been last year.
But I personally definitely write her off for the gold, and I'm extremely confident in saying that.
3-4 much better skaters would have to completely implode for that to happen.

 

[chasingneverland]

You summoned me?

You're back!!!!!!!

 

[alexocfp]

I don't think anyone's writing her off for a medal per se, but there's a level of acknowledgment that Tuktamysheva historically doesn't have the most optimal layout and of the contenders she needs the most help from her competitors to win - she has to be clean (which she has struggled to do this season) and her competitors like Trusova and Shcherbakova have to make multiple mistakes

Let’s see who is clutch when the lights are shining bright.

I’m telling you, got a feeling that she will be picture perfect when it counts.

 

[alexocfp]

I doubt anybody has written Liza off for a medal, the field is not nearly as stacked as it could have been or would have been last year.
But I personally definitely write her off for the gold, and I'm extremely confident in saying that.
3-4 much better skaters would have to completely implode for that to happen.

Gold is unlikely.

But that farewell silver would look good on her. Haha

And I’m not biased or anything, but there should be a Maxim Cover Girl bonus built into the scoring system. Like plus 50 points. Haha

Kind of like the Kaori bonus (you get 20 points for being Kaori Sakamoto).

 

[macy]

Let’s see who is clutch when the lights are shining bright.

I’m telling you, got a feeling that she will be picture perfect when it counts.

She might be, but 3-4 other skaters have to be *very* imperfect for her to win. if they're all perfect it's not going to happen.

 

[alexocfp]

She might be, but 3-4 other skaters have to be *very* imperfect for her to win. if they're all perfect it's not going to happen.

That’s the fun of it. We’re gonna find out in a few weeks who’s perfect.

 

[flanker]

He's back! He's back!!

You thought you can enjoy all the fun without me?

Well. Where to start

1. Just a little technical note. When you get even a little achievement on steam, the steam announces it to you and you can actually see it. Here you you win really a supergreat achievement for which you worked truly hard, you are looking forward to it, but you can't actually even read it that you won it till it expires. Just little customer feedback

2. Liza goes to worlds. Yeah, congrats

3. Maiia landed two different quads in one program (as only the third lady ever after Sasha and Anna, BTW). Eat this, yee of little faith

4. Liza Berestovskaya is with Eteri now. My dream came true

5. Elena Kostyleva back with Eteri. Also great thing.

6. But what sould have been the transfer of the spring turns pale in front of the news about the return of prodigal daughter Aliona. Here's my little summary of Aliona's season in just three Pink Floyd songs:
The grass was greener, The light was brighter and when the ringing of the division bell began, the High Hopes were awaken.
But then, as she listened to her breathing that sounded like the waves on the sea, she realized she can Take It Back.
And, with hope, in some time, the high hopes say she's Coming Back to Life.

So, that's for the start.

 

[chasingneverland]

Gold is unlikely.

But that farewell silver would look good on her. Haha

Even for her to be silver, she would need two of Anna/Sasha/Rika to not be close to clean. If they rotate at all (even if they fall) they're above 155, while Liza would need to be clean (like no step outs) to get around 154/155 ish.

 

[Amei]

Let’s see who is clutch when the lights are shining bright.

I’m telling you, got a feeling that she will be picture perfect when it counts.

Well the thing is that a perfect Tuktamysheva based on everything we've seen from her, can't win gold on her perfect performance alone, she needs the 2 other Russians and Rika to make mistakes (possibly multiple) because they have more difficult jumps and more difficult layouts that are more forgiving to mistakes.

 

[flanker]

You're back!!!!!!!

Yes. I am.

Though one note. You wrote that Rika has the highest PCS of those who will be competing at worlds. But if we take some comparable competitions from 2019/2020 season, Anna had higher PCS at GPF than Rika and she also received higher PCS than Rika at Europeans than Rika received at 4CC (both in SP and FS). The difference is not crucial, but there is and Anna as current russian No. 1 wil surely go up in PCS (of course unless she would bomb or something). Can't properly compare current competitions, no need to go into details about that.

 

[chasingneverland]

It's not a big difference in BV to what you mentioned but I don't think that is Rika's planned layout. Based on Japanese Nationals, I believe she is planning to attempt:

4S
3A+2T
3FEu3S
3Lo
3A
3F+3T
3Lz

She won't do a 2A. So her BV will be slightly higher at a little over 112 across the two programs. She will be at an disadvantage, but it isn't particularly extreme. It really just comes down to who skates clean.

Her other potential FS layout is (her Challenge Cup layout but replacing the opening 3S with a 4S) - once again though doesn't do 2As:

4S 9.7
3A+2T 9.3
3Lz 5.9
FCSp4 3.2
3A 8
StSq4 3.9
3F+3T (x) 10.45
3Lz+2T+2Lo (x) 9.79
CCoSp4 3.5
ChSq1 3
3Lo (x) 5.39
LSp4 2.70
74.83

Still at around 112 but 3 points comes down to who is clean.

 

[chasingneverland]

I think that user (Shayuki) wasn't referring to Rika. She was referring to skaters like Bradie because the conversation was about Bradie and her chances of making the podium.

But my point was that Anna doesn't need 3 quads. Anna with only 2 quads still has a higher BV than Rika with three 3A and one quad sal.

Regarding Aliona vs Anna: No Anna received multiple under-rotations and downgrades last year, that's how Aliona was able to beat her. Anna (if clean) with only 2 quads can get a higher score than Aliona's highest combined score (SP+FS) from last year.

But that's the thing - she was referring to Liza T and Kaori too. Anna falling twice on both quads will be around 155. That is catchable by Liza T and Kaori - they're at 153/154 when clean. Bradie should be around 150 clean.

Anna doesn't need 3 quads for Rika - she needs that for Sasha. Besides, the difference in BV between Anna with 2 quads and Rika with 3 3As and 1 quad sal is about 3.5 points.

Another thing to add though when talking about Liza T's medal threat potential, there is one place where she's going to be at an inherent disadvantage, and that's World's Standing and the effect on SP starting order: the last 6 won't include her. The last 6 will be Rika, Bradie, Anna, Sasha, Kaori, and Satoko. Liza T will be in the second to last group. The judges will be subconsciously waiting for the last group and still holding scores down. Also the judges will know that the 2 best Russians are still coming.