2020-21 US Women's Figure Skating

[Amei]

I disagree. If she misses it she almost guarantees she won’t get 4th or 5th which will likely be what she needs to get the US three spots. She doesn’t need it to beat Liza or Kaori (though a clean Liza will be unbeatable for Bradie even if she added a triple axel) and it wouldn’t make enough of a difference to get her on the podium if the top three are even moderately clean. It’s an unnecessary risk, especially when the goal here is to get three spots for Beijing.

How clean does Tuktamysheva need to be in your opinion to be 'unbeatable' for Bradie, last year at Skate America Tuktamysheva had a messy landing on her combo and an under-rotation on her solo 3Lz in the SP, in the FS she was clean with the exception of an under-rotation on her solo 3Loop so Tuktamysheva had no falls and 3 cleanly called triple axels - I know when this event happened there was a general consensus that Bradie was not called on a couple under-rotations however she still beat Tuktamysheva by more than 10 points. Even if we look at Bradie's Skate Canada score where she got called on her under-rotations against Tuktamysheva's Skate America (which was her best performance out of the GPs) she still beat Tuktamysheva by more than 5 points. From the looks of last year's scoring, if both have a similar layout to last year - a clean Bradie can score and beat Tuktamysheva - being #1 in your country pays off.

 

[readernick]

How clean does Tuktamysheva need to be in your opinion to be 'unbeatable' for Bradie, last year at Skate America Tuktamysheva had a messy landing on her combo and an under-rotation on her solo 3Lz in the SP, in the FS she was clean with the exception of an under-rotation on her solo 3Loop so Tuktamysheva had no falls and 3 cleanly called triple axels - I know when this event happened there was a general consensus that Bradie was not called on a couple under-rotations however she still beat Tuktamysheva by more than 10 points. Even if we look at Bradie's Skate Canada score where she got called on her under-rotations against Tuktamysheva's Skate America (which was her best performance out of the GPs) she still beat Tuktamysheva by more than 5 points. From the looks of last year's scoring, if both have a similar layout to last year - a clean Bradie can score and beat Tuktamysheva - being #1 in your country pays off.

To be fair, it isn't just because she is US#1. ( Although that helps) She does have qualities that Tuk lacks ( and I love Tuk ... You go Empress!). Her spins are a lot better ( some of the best in the World if you consider speed and centering), her skating is really fast in person, she has much more complex choreography, and she gets her StepSeq levels.With a clean 3A she would definitely score higher than Tuk. Even considering her likely non 3A layout she has a shot of beating Tuk. If Tuk is percent clean, she will win. However, Tuk can UR jumps in the second half, she steps out of a huge percentage of her 3As and she loses levels. If Bradie skates like she did last year at 4CC, she could definitely be 4th here. I think the Tuk, Kaori, Bradie match up from 4-6 is in some ways more interesting than the 1-3 match up because the different strengths of Bradie, Kaori and Tuk can really highlight judges' preferences.

 

[kirauza343]

How clean does Tuktamysheva need to be in your opinion to be 'unbeatable' for Bradie, last year at Skate America Tuktamysheva had a messy landing on her combo and an under-rotation on her solo 3Lz in the SP, in the FS she was clean with the exception of an under-rotation on her solo 3Loop so Tuktamysheva had no falls and 3 cleanly called triple axels - I know when this event happened there was a general consensus that Bradie was not called on a couple under-rotations however she still beat Tuktamysheva by more than 10 points. Even if we look at Bradie's Skate Canada score where she got called on her under-rotations against Tuktamysheva's Skate America (which was her best performance out of the GPs) she still beat Tuktamysheva by more than 5 points. From the looks of last year's scoring, if both have a similar layout to last year - a clean Bradie can score and beat Tuktamysheva - being #1 in your country pays off.

Flawless, as in everything is clean. Even with her suboptimal layouts three clean triple axels is huge, and with a clean short she’ll have a lead over Bradie going into the free. That being said that would require her to be squeaky clean which I don’t see happening. Bradie definitely has the edge and can definitely beat her! I completely agree with that. But there is a scenario where she can’t reach Liza (as unlikely as it may be).

Really the battle for fourth is going to be so close and interesting! There won’t be any shame in not making the podium for the two of them or Kaori because it’s going to be a fierce fight

 

[saturdaysun]

It might be harder for Bradie to beat Liza now compared to last year. I agree she still has the edge due to her consistency, but Liza has demonstrably worked on improving all the other elements she was lacking before, gotten her levels up, etc. and her reputation must be higher now that she has beaten even seemingly unbeatable Russians more than once throughout this season. And unfortunately I would say Bradie looks weaker this year than she did last year, with more obvious URs. But it's a close call, for sure. I would give the edge to Kaori between the three of them, personally.

 

[readernick]

It might be harder for Bradie to beat Liza now compared to last year. I agree she still has the edge due to her consistency, but Liza has demonstrably worked on improving all the other elements she was lacking before, gotten her levels up, etc. and her reputation must be higher now that she has beaten even seemingly unbeatable Russians more than once throughout this season. And unfortunately I would say Bradie looks weaker this year than she did last year, with more obvious URs. But it's a close call, for sure. I would give the edge to Kaori between the three of them, personally.

If Kaori is percent clean. I agree. I think judges love rewarding good SS. Despite Kaori's lack of upper body movement and control she makes an impact in person because of her SS. However, she isn't known for her ability to be clean. Also, Bradie at SA was just coming back from injury. At Nationals, her jump landings were a lot cleaner ( not percent but much much better) and she has been healthy and training since then.. So I expect more improvement. This is why I think 4-6 is such an interesting battle! I quite like Kaori, Tuk, and Bradie and I hope they all skate clean and make the judges' jobs hard!

 

[drivingmissdaisy]

It might be harder for Bradie to beat Liza now compared to last year. I agree she still has the edge due to her consistency, but Liza has demonstrably worked on improving all the other elements she was lacking before, gotten her levels up, etc. and her reputation must be higher now that she has beaten even seemingly unbeatable Russians more than once throughout this season. And unfortunately I would say Bradie looks weaker this year than she did last year, with more obvious URs. But it's a close call, for sure. I would give the edge to Kaori between the three of them, personally.

I agree that Liza is a lot better now that she was last season, particularly on the non-jump elements. She gets top levels on spins and, even though they aren't pretty, she gets enough positive GOE on them that she isn't far behind the better spinners. I do think a clean Liza would be out of reach for Bradie, mostly because of the 3A edge in the SP. But Liza usually scores in the 70s for the SP and 140s in the LP, which are marks Bradie can exceed.

 

[[email protected]]

I agree that Liza is a lot better now that she was last season, particularly on the non-jump elements. She gets top levels on spins and, even though they aren't pretty, she gets enough positive GOE on them that she isn't far behind the better spinners. I do think a clean Liza would be out of reach for Bradie, mostly because of the 3A edge in the SP. But Liza usually scores in the 70s for the SP and 140s in the LP, which are marks Bradie can exceed.

She usually scores like that because she is never 100% clean. That's the whole thing - Bradie's placement depends on how Liza skates. Liza's placement by far and large depends on how she herself skates.

 

[macy]

anyone know how the ladies are doing in practice?

 

[mrrice]

anyone know how the ladies are doing in practice?

I got up early just ask this same question. I hope they're looking good. I really love Bradie's SP and even if she doesn't medal, I truly hope she makes the final flight.

 

[chuckm]

Bradie skates next-to-last in the SP, right after Miyahara. Tuk skates first in the penultimate group.

 

[macy]

Karen is in the 5th group (3rd to last) and skates 2nd

 

[Jammers]

Not totally.



Not automatically.

For 2022 OWG, there are extra new rules for qualifying for multiple OWG spots in a discipline.

The effects of the new rules are broader than their effect on the particular situation of the ladies on Team USA (two Worlds entries + a goal of three OWG spots).

But the excerpt below from Lynn Rutherford's article explains how the extra new rules apply to Team USA ladies and Team USA pairs (emphases added):

In order to gain three entries to the 2022 Beijing Olympics, the results of a country’s top two finishers at the 2021 world championships cannot total more than 13, and all of the country’s athletes must qualify for the free skate or free dance. If two skaters or teams are competing [at Worlds], and placements total 13 or less, another step is required: the country must send a third athlete — not one of the two who competed at worlds — to the 2021 Nebelhorn Trophy in Oberstdorf, Germany this fall, to compete for the third spot.​

In other words:

In order to earn three OWG spots without anyone competing at Nebelhorn, a federation must have three Worlds entries in the discipline *PLUS* the placements of the top two finishers at Worlds cannot total more than 13 *PLUS* all three Worlds entries must qualify for the free skate or free dance.​

(I will steer clear here of a discussion of other manifestations of the revised rules in other scenarios.)

What kind of new BS rules are these that the ISU came up with? In the past all the skaters at worlds had to do was finish a combined 13 or less in the standings to get the 3rd spot whether they were two or three skaters competing.

 

[ice coverage]

At the 2018 ISU Congress, 52 federations voted for the rule change for Olympic qualifying.

(Off topic, but it should not be assumed that the rule change invariably will be unhelpful to Team USA or unhelpful to small federations.

If the rule change had been in effect for 2018 OWG pair spots, it would have meant that:

- Team USA would have gained the benefit of being able to compete at Nebelhorn for a second OWG pair spot.

Per the rules in effect at the time, Team USA instead earned one 2018 OWG pair spot via 2017 Worlds, and had no chance to compete at Nebelhorn for a second OWG spot.​

- CZE, PRK, AUS would have earned 2018 OWG pair spots outright via Worlds -- instead of needing to earn their spots via Nebelhorn.

- CHN would have needed to earn their third OWG pair spot via Nebelhorn.
- GER would have needed to earn their second OWG pair spot via Nebelhorn. (Ditto for FRA, if it had wanted a second spot.)​

 

[ramurphy2005]

Not totally.



Not automatically.

For 2022 OWG, there are extra new rules for qualifying for multiple OWG spots in a discipline.

The effects of the new rules are broader than their effect on the particular situation of the ladies on Team USA (two Worlds entries + a goal of three OWG spots).

But the excerpt below from Lynn Rutherford's article explains how the extra new rules apply to Team USA ladies and Team USA pairs (emphases added):

In order to gain three entries to the 2022 Beijing Olympics, the results of a country’s top two finishers at the 2021 world championships cannot total more than 13, and all of the country’s athletes must qualify for the free skate or free dance. If two skaters or teams are competing [at Worlds], and placements total 13 or less, another step is required: the country must send a third athlete — not one of the two who competed at worlds — to the 2021 Nebelhorn Trophy in Oberstdorf, Germany this fall, to compete for the third spot.​

In other words:

In order to earn three OWG spots without anyone competing at Nebelhorn, a federation must have three Worlds entries in the discipline *PLUS* the placements of the top two finishers at Worlds cannot total more than 13 *PLUS* all three Worlds entries must qualify for the free skate or free dance.​

(I will steer clear here of a discussion of other manifestations of the revised rules in other scenarios.)

Do you have the link to article this handy? I'm trying to find it, and my google searches are failing me.

 

[ice coverage]

According to Lynn Rutherford's Mar 19 article ...

https://www.teamusa.org/News/2021/March/19/Five-Team-USA-Storylines-To-Watch-At-World-Figure-Skating-Championships

...

Do you have the link to article this handy? I'm trying to find it, and my google searches are failing me.

Quoting myself to provide the link to Lynn Rutherford's article, which I had posted on the previous page of the thread.

---

Good luck to Bradie and Karen in the FS!

 

[ramurphy2005]

Quoting myself to provide the link to Lynn Rutherford's article, which I had posted on the previous page of the thread.

---

Good luck to Bradie and Karen in the FS!

That bit about the Nebelhorn spots isn't in the article anymore.

It's like they're trying to drive us crazy with this stuff.

 

[ice coverage]

That bit about the Nebelhorn spots isn't in the article anymore.

It's like they're trying to drive us crazy with this stuff.

Hmmmm ... 'tis mysterious that the article was changed.
Thanks for pointing it out.

FWIW: I just re-checked the ISU site, and Version 1.0 (from Dec 2019) of the "Qualification System" document for Beijing 2022 still is there, with the extra wrinkle for 2022 still indicated on page 3 (emphasis not added):

From: "D.1 Qualification through the ISU World Figure Skating Championships 2021"

"NOCs, who through their ISU Members Nation, have earned the necessary points according to Rule 378, paragraph 2b) and c) will have the right for two (2) or three (3) entries, only if, in addition, they had two (2) or respectively three (3) Skaters/Pairs/Couples qualified for the Free Skating/Free Dance in the ISU World Figure Skating Championships 2021 (ISU Rule 400, paragraph 3)."​

From: "D.2 Qualification through the Senior International Qualification Competition designated by the ISU"

In the explanation of which federations are eligible to compete for an OWG spot via Nebelhorn:

"NOCs which have earned the necessary points for two (2) or three (3) entries but did not have two (2) or respectively three (3) Skaters qualified for the Free Skating/Free Dance at the ISU World Figure Skating Championships 2021. This quota place will be in addition to the quota place(s) that the NOC had earned in D.1. These ISU members are entitled to enter one (1) Skater in the qualifying event who had not qualified for the Free Skating/Free Dance at the ISU World Figure Skating Championships 2021."​

https://isu.org/docman-documents-links-2/2022-beijing/qualification-systems-3/22994-figure-skating-v1-0/file

Link above is from:

Beijing 2022 - International Skating Union

PyeongChang 2018 Olympic Winter Games will take place from February 9 - 25 2018.

isu.org

 

[macy]

3 spots are not out of reach. good luck to Bradie and Karen in the free.

 

[mrrice]

3 spots are not out of reach. good luck to Bradie and Karen in the free.

I agree. Bradie usually does well in the Free and if Karen can maintain her position, we're home free. This is a nail biter but, it's very exciting.

 

[drivingmissdaisy]

I agree. Bradie usually does well in the Free and if Karen can maintain her position, we're home free. This is a nail biter but, it's very exciting.

It'll be close. I expect the current top three, plus Sasha, to make up the top 4 spots. Satoko probably can't impact the Olympic spot race now, so the final ordering of Karen/Yelim/Kaori/Bradie/Haein/Loena will decide everything.