2020-21 Russian Ladies' Figure Skating

[Scott512]

I am a little worried for Anna. So happy she won, but she looked exhausted and similar to RusNats. I really hope it’s just fatigue from overtraining and not health issues after her pneumonia :/

It's probably both fatigue and still recovering from pneumonia or covid pneumonia or whatever Anna had back in November. She is
So delicate but a true warrior and very clutch even when she's not at her best physically. The time off will do wonders for Anya and all the skaters for that matter.

 

[Ziotic]

A reigning world medalist(or 2) will be getting left off the Olympic team.

 

[Tinymavy15]

A reigning world medalist(or 2) will be getting left off the Olympic team.

well that's likely but who knows. Could be the same three for all we know. This time last year we would have imagined Alena on the 2021 podium.

 

[florin]

A reigning world medalist(or 2) will be getting left off the Olympic team.

Oh, you are such a sweet and caring person. Obviously, you came to say this because of your sincere concern for the career of Russian figure skaters. Thanks

 

[Rus Skating World]

I feel like Sasha occupied all allowed quads quota for Ladies FS tonight And that's why there was nothing left for Rika and Anna

 

[Ziotic]

Oh, you are such a sweet and caring person. Obviously, you came to say this because of your sincere concern for the career of Russian figure skaters. Thanks

What careers? One senior season?
I’m pointing out the absurdity of the situation that likely 1, but maybe 2 or all the medalist will be left home in favour of their newer models.

 

[Mathman]

I haven't seen the performances yet, but just going by the protocols, I have to wonder -- where is this sport headed. Alexandra Trusova wins the free program by staying upright on 60% of her big elements while getting mediocre GOEs and program components. But she threw so much at the wall that something was bound to stick, plus everyone else left a lot on the table, too.

Half of a lot beats two-thirds of nothing, I guess.

 

[Skatesocs]

I haven't seen the performances yet, but just going by the protocols, I have to wonder -- where is this sport headed. Alexandra Trusova wins the free program by staying upright on 60% of her big elements while getting mediocre GOEs and program components. But she threw so much at the wall that something was bound to stick, plus everyone else left a lot on the table, too.

Half of a lot beats two-thirds of nothing, I guess.

That's all very nice, but I was hoping to see you debate @IcyMathStats usage of statistics in this thread

 

[florin]

Yes.

(1) I predicted both Trusova and Tuktamysheva on the podium.
(2) I predicted the expected number of quads landed by Schberbakova in competition to be zero.

Both predictions were confirmed.

Not the most difficult predictions Quads are quads - it's a difficult thing. And something tells me that in these predictions there was Kihira on the podium. Can you throw a link to your prophecies?

 

[Mathman]

I can't help noticing how Elizaveta T. is standing, compared to the teenagers.

 

[florin]

What careers? One senior season?
I’m pointing out the absurdity of the situation that likely 1, but maybe 2 or all the medalist will be left home in favour of their newer models.

The absurdity here arises only because of the archaic quota system. Which works only in a situation where figure skating is not a popular sport (as in some Belgium or Canada), but not work in a situation where it is a highly competitive sport. So your accusations of absurdity should be addressed to the ISU and quota system, but not to the Russian figure skating, which has only become what any sport should be - highly competitive.

 

[chasingneverland]

Anything can happen, but Sasha and Liza are currently the most likely to make the Olympic team. Rock-solid jumping technique that is resilient to body changes, and they are the only ladies to have landed more than 1 difficult jump, such as a 3A or a quad, at Worlds 2021 (in fact, each successfully landed 3 such elements). Third Olympic spot is anyone's game among current seniors and juniors who will turn senior next season.

Actually no. Sasha only landed one quad completely cleanly here. Sasha most definitely didn't land 3 such elements - she actually landed 2 quads, and her flip had an edge. The rest weren't landed.

And yes, you correctly predicted that Anna would fall under-rotate and fall on her 4F but I noticed you failed to predict that Liza would under-rotate and fall on her 3F or that Sasha would fall on two quads and under-rotate two of them.

It's almost like quads are hard. What a novel concept.

 

[florin]

Correlation is one of the simplest things to calculate in statistics. I was pointing out that another poster neither understands the concept, nor knows how to derive and apply the formula. A lot of people can do that, and much more sophisticated things (mathematically and computationally). There's nothing to brag about if you can do it, but you have no business using the term if you can't. That was my point.

If you don't want to make predictions, that is of course your choice. But your preference for not making predictions IN NO WAY entitles you to interfere with other posters' right to make predictions if they so choose.

pale, I already realized that you are quite a specific person, so I will interrupt our communication using the "ignore" function."

 

[chasingneverland]

Yes.

(1) I predicted both Trusova and Tuktamysheva on the podium.
(2) I predicted the expected number of quads landed by Schberbakova in competition to be zero.

Both predictions were confirmed.

LOL

 

[silveruskate]

Sasha's Flip edge was complete e in that 4F, and it was severe. I'm shocked it was only given !

 

[silveruskate]

Yes.

(1) I predicted both Trusova and Tuktamysheva on the podium.
(2) I predicted the expected number of quads landed by Schberbakova in competition to be zero.

Both predictions were confirmed.

So you didn't even predict Anya to be on the podium and she ended up winner.

 

[flanker]

I'm predicting tomorrow will be a different day. With some confident level of probability.

 

[florin]

I'm predicting tomorrow will be a different day. With some confident level of probability.

wait, did you use the correlation function in your calculations?

 

[chasingneverland]

Based on her practices and her 3 quad planned content, that was the most probable outcome. As I explained, had she not had the advantage of skating last, and gone for 3 quads instead, as her team had announced, she would likely not have made the podium. It's all probabilistic. No one can predict with 100% accuracy.

Her submitted planned content was 2 not 3 by the FS. They never announced that she was going for 3.

She was also almost 20 points higher than Sasha and almost 30 points higher than Karen. She could have gone for both quads and fallen on both and still made the podium. But I'm assuming you forgot to include that in your calculation.

Even if Sasha gets her combo in the SP, Anna still wins here.

 

[flanker]

wait, did you use the correlation function in your calculations?

Definitely, and discovered the casual relationship between my desk calendar and day/night cycle.