I just re-watched Mao's and Yu-na's best SP's and LP's this season, and here are some random observations:
- Mao has improved a lot in her posture, which not only should improve her PCS, but also give her much better positions in the spirals (besides the lovely Bielmann, she also has a wonderfully stretched classical spiral position) but also the spins, especially the camel and the layback -- Yu-na's camel is fast but not stretched out enough, and her layback is ugly (though neither of them is particularly good at this one, but at least Mao has a nice catchfoot/Bielmann)
- Mao also has better centering in the spins than Yu-na, though Yu-na does the spins faster at the moment
- Mao has more difficult footwork sequences, which she also skates with greater flow and ease -- Yu-na manages to make her less difficult step sequences look more belabored and also slow down quite a lot in both the SP and LP
- Mao is skating with less speed than in the past through her programs, maybe more familiarity/experience with them will help
- They both have beautiful arms, everyone raves about Yu-na's, but Mao's catching up
- They both have great presentation, Yu-na has drama and audience connection on her side, Mao has flow and posture on hers
On the whole, I feel like Mao has been working hard and improving on every aspect of her skating besides the jumps, whereas Yu-na has been working hard on her jumps and relatively speaking neglecting everything else -- perhaps this was wise on the part of both skaters, because Mao is a natural jumper and Yu-na is a natural performer, so this year they've both been working on things that are not their strongest points.
As for the GPF, I'm not sure who I will bet on. I think if they both skate clean (Mao with a 3A), then Mao will win. Both of them have popped jumps in both SP's this season, and Mao's 3A has been MIA. Yu-na has been a little more consistent so far, but her programs are also less difficult/demanding. So Yu-na has consistency on her side, but Mao has the advantage that she has more room to improve in given her natural abilities. If she can bring that 3A back, and add speed to her spins and spirals as she gets more comfortable with her programs, then I think in the end Mao will have greater advantage. I'm just not sure that everything will fall into place for Mao in time for the GPF, especially with the 3A and the Japanese media weighing in on her mind...