2021-2022 US Women's Figure Skating

[Amei]

Bradie has quite a few challengers lined up so she'll have opportunities to compete. Hoping that she'll be healthy by then.

I'm wondering if she's signed up for a multitude of challengers before their deadline closed with the intent of going once her injury is healed or she's recovered to a certain level.

I wonder if she'll make a statement about her GP Italy WD.

Amber's base value was very low at Skate America at 55. Only Audrey and Starr had less than her. She can increase her it by 6 points just by doing 2 lutzes and two triple-triple combos. That's the same amount as swapping one of her 2A for a 3A.

Layouts have been a problem for the US ladies for awhile, with the exception of Alysa and Bradie the other US senior ladies only do 1 triple-triple at the top of their FS program. Combined the 2021 US Ladies nationals podium (so places 1 - 4) had 4 triple-triples in their FS programs; the national champ at 2021 Russian Nationals did 3 in her FS alone, with 2 back-loaded. I can't remember the last time Starr attempted even a double lutz in competition.

The current crop US junior ladies seem to have some more promise with being more willing to push and do more difficult layouts that are more competitive internationally, but maybe the US Fed on a national level needs to implement a scoring incentive for skaters to do a full compliment of the jumps in their FS, either a double or triple, or make it a requirement that you at least attempt a double of each jump type.

Bradie often has been injured. She has frequently battled back from injury but repeated back and foot injuries take a toll on the body. I would love to be surprised but I have a bad feeling about her ability to be her best this season.

I remember this coming up whenever the last Olympics came around, per Wikipedia (which has a sourced article) she had pronation issues as an infant and when she first transitioned to senior level she suffered a back injury that put her in a brace for 3 months at a time - in 2 different instances.

https://www.teamusa.org/News/2018/F...-Skating-Champion-Competing-At-First-Olympics

 

[dancelion21]

If Bradie doesn't compete all fall season, she would definitely need to place top 3 at US Nationals (probably top 2) to be assigned on the Olympic team. This opens the door for Amber, Karen, Lindsey, and Mariah, two of which will be on the team alongside Alysa. It's difficult to say who will be on the team. I'm really interested in seeing how Lindsey is scored at her upcoming Challenger assignment, just in terms of how much of a PCS disadvantage she can expect compared to the other senior ladies.

 

[Sjs5572]

If Bradie doesn't compete all fall season, she would definitely need to place top 3 at US Nationals (probably top 2) to be assigned on the Olympic team. This opens the door for Amber, Karen, Lindsey, and Mariah, two of which will be on the team alongside Alysa. It's difficult to say who will be on the team. I'm really interested in seeing how Lindsey is scored at her upcoming Challenger assignment, just in terms of how much of a PCS disadvantage she can expect compared to the other senior ladies.

At this moment in time I'd give the following odds to make Olympics:

Alysa: 1 to 15
Karen: 1 to 2
Bradie: 2 to 1
Amber: 5 to 2
Lindsay: 5 to 2
Mariah: 3 to 1

 

[dancelion21]

I would say likelihood are Alysa >>>>>> Karen >>> Lindsay > Amber > Mariah

I don't even know where to put Bradie in the likelihood since she's clearly heavily injured. Even if she makes it back in time for US Nationals, will she be as consistent as she was pre-injury? I feel like it's getting bleak since she won't have the chance to build a BOW this fall. Alysa's clearly the odds on favorite to make the team and win US Nationals. Karen has higher PCS than all the other US ladies, and has seemed to be trending upward in terms of consistency. She has the most rotation issues of all the US ladies though, which can nail her on a bad day. Between Lindsay, Amber, and Mariah, I feel like it's mostly a toss up. Mariah gets the highest PCS of the three and used to be consistent, but she hasn't been consistent for the past year and she has the most rotation issues of the three. Amber used to have the worst competition nerves, though she seems to be better than Mariah at that aspect now, and of course there's the triple axel which may be landed in competition one day. Lindsay's the most solid competitor, but she will have the lowest PCS.

 

[Greengemmonster]

I'm so sad about Bradie. She's come so far from the last Olympics. I wanted her to show the world her stuff.

She's got wonderful artistry and I absolutely loved her determination to milk out every single point of BV that she could based on her ability. I'd watch her skate and admire her throwing the kitchen sink in to get more points. It is so incredibly unfair and upsetting that she's injured this year.

 

[Mathman]

At this moment in time I'd give the following odds to make Olympics:

Alysa: 1 to 15
Karen: 1 to 2
Bradie: 2 to 1
Amber: 5 to 2
Lindsay: 5 to 2
Mariah: 3 to 1

We'll have a little nore to go on with regard to Alysa and Karen after Skate Canada. So far I don't think that anyone has done enough this year to be considered a lock

 

[Sjs5572]

We'll have a little nore to go on with regard to Alysa and Karen after Skate Canada. So far I don't think that anyone has done enough this year to be considered a lock

That's why these are "futures" odds. I fully expect them to change at any time.

 

[drivingmissdaisy]

So far I don't think that anyone has done enough this year to be considered a lock

I don't think so, either. I'd have Alysa ahead of the others right now, but not way ahead until she produces the 3A in competition. It seems like she can be counted on to get all the triples through the lutz done reliably, which is enough to be the top American at the moment.

 

[mrrice]

I don't think so, either. I'd have Alysa ahead of the others right now, but not way ahead until she produces the 3A in competition. It seems like she can be counted on to get all the triples through the lutz done reliably, which is enough to be the top American at the moment.

Exactly. I feel the same way about Amber. With the question marks surrounding Bradie, Mariah, and Amber, Alysa is the only lock I see at this point. I must say that I am excited to see Lindsay in a Senior event against these ladies. I still don't have a 3rd lady on the team and I won't until I see how Defending Champion, Bradie Tennel, is looking.

 

[lurkerghost1]

Layouts have been a problem for the US ladies for awhile, with the exception of Alysa and Bradie the other US senior ladies only do 1 triple-triple at the top of their FS program. Combined the 2021 US Ladies nationals podium (so places 1 - 4) had 4 triple-triples in their FS programs; the national champ at 2021 Russian Nationals did 3 in her FS alone, with 2 back-loaded. I can't remember the last time Starr attempted even a double lutz in competition.

The current crop US junior ladies seem to have some more promise with being more willing to push and do more difficult layouts that are more competitive internationally, but maybe the US Fed on a national level needs to implement a scoring incentive for skaters to do a full compliment of the jumps in their FS, either a double or triple, or make it a requirement that you at least attempt a double of each jump type.

You are overestimating the importance of triple-triples. With the popularization of -Eu-3S one can easily make a competitive (for no quads) layout without a 3-3. Anna's program at Russian nationals has 3x 3-3s because the quads allow her to do it which is where she gets the huge advantage in base value.

Karen's free program from 2020 four continents for example has 7 triples, two double axels, and repeats lutz and loop even without a 3-3. Ignoring backloading, that means her base value would be a good bit higher than Medvedeva who for many years was lauded for the difficulty of doing two triple-triple combinations even though she was repeating flip and toe.

Now on the other hand there is the argument that Karen needs a 3-3 not for the base value but for the PCS which is a fair argument. Doing the 3-3 at Finlandia in the free skate instead of 2A-3T definitely improved her PCS.

 

[skatingiscool]

If Alysa can get herself on the Podium at Skate Canada, it will be HUGE! Lot's of talent in that lineup of skaters and if she can break the Russian stranglehold, it would be great for her confidence. She will need to keep those Olympic Judges Attention and this would be a nice opportunity to make that happen.

I just hope USPSA don't hype her so much and give her pressure. If she is placed in top 5 at SC, that's already very impressive.

I'm wondering if she's signed up for a multitude of challengers before their deadline closed with the intent of going once her injury is healed or she's recovered to a certain level.

I wonder if she'll make a statement about her GP Italy WD.



Layouts have been a problem for the US ladies for awhile, with the exception of Alysa and Bradie the other US senior ladies only do 1 triple-triple at the top of their FS program. Combined the 2021 US Ladies nationals podium (so places 1 - 4) had 4 triple-triples in their FS programs; the national champ at 2021 Russian Nationals did 3 in her FS alone, with 2 back-loaded. I can't remember the last time Starr attempted even a double lutz in competition.

The current crop US junior ladies seem to have some more promise with being more willing to push and do more difficult layouts that are more competitive internationally, but maybe the US Fed on a national level needs to implement a scoring incentive for skaters to do a full compliment of the jumps in their FS, either a double or triple, or make it a requirement that you at least attempt a double of each jump type.



I remember this coming up whenever the last Olympics came around, per Wikipedia (which has a sourced article) she had pronation issues as an infant and when she first transitioned to senior level she suffered a back injury that put her in a brace for 3 months at a time - in 2 different instances.

https://www.teamusa.org/News/2018/F...-Skating-Champion-Competing-At-First-Olympics

Bradie has also WD from Challenger series in Austria nov 11-14 according to Philip Hersh. Wishing her has a speedy recovery.

 

[yelyoh]

I'm beginning to wonder if Bradie will compete at all until US Nats and with no international competition (or any for that matter) would that lack of exposure hurt her? I know someone cited MK as an example but that was a different era and a different skater.

 

[Jammers]

If only Ting Cui hadn't gotten injured after her 2019 season she was trending upward for her first season as a Senior skater when she got injured for 2 seasons she would have had a great chance to make the Olympic team with this level of competition.

 

[moonvine]

Do you guys remember Stephanie Rosenthal? I thought she was so fun at Nationals and thought she'd be a great show skater. Here's her SP from 2006. https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=eENh7cMpktk

Yes! I remember her and she was a US lady so I don’t think it’s off topic

 

[skatingiscool]

I'm beginning to wonder if Bradie will compete at all until US Nats and with no international competition (or any for that matter) would that lack of exposure hurt her? I know someone cited MK as an example but that was a different era and a different skater.

If Bradie is on podium at Nats, I think USFSA will send her. Bradie got political support from USFSA plus she has BOW for "YEARS". If Alysa has good placement at GP but she finishes at 4th place at Nats again, it will be a different story. Sadly, somebody with a medal at Nats will get bumped and give the spot to Alysa.

 

[katymay]

I would say likelihood are Alysa >>>>>> Karen >>> Lindsay > Amber > Mariah

I don't even know where to put Bradie in the likelihood since she's clearly heavily injured. Even if she makes it back in time for US Nationals, will she be as consistent as she was pre-injury? I feel like it's getting bleak since she won't have the chance to build a BOW this fall. Alysa's clearly the odds on favorite to make the team and win US Nationals. Karen has higher PCS than all the other US ladies, and has seemed to be trending upward in terms of consistency. She has the most rotation issues of all the US ladies though, which can nail her on a bad day. Between Lindsay, Amber, and Mariah, I feel like it's mostly a toss up. Mariah gets the highest PCS of the three and used to be consistent, but she hasn't been consistent for the past year and she has the most rotation issues of the three. Amber used to have the worst competition nerves, though she seems to be better than Mariah at that aspect now, and of course there's the triple axel which may be landed in competition one day. Lindsay's the most solid competitor, but she will have the lowest PCS.

The problem with foot injuries, they are often career ending. When the skate is off, you think, hey, all healed, all fine. And then when you are back on the ice, and it can be MONTHS later, your old friend- foot pain- comes roaring back. Once you start getting that fun, crippling, shooting pain it is too late to do anything about it. As far as foot health and skating boot design, I think there has been zero progress, and in my opinion the new 'popular' brand is the worst boot ever conceived as far as preventing stress fractures and foot injury. All this to say, I don't think Bradie WILL be back. I'm not sure Trusova will be back to her former self either. I think it is the one injury that can't be solved by time off the ice, surgery, therapy or anything else.

 

[yelyoh]

The problem with foot injuries, they are often career ending. When the skate is off, you think, hey, all healed, all fine. And then when you are back on the ice, and it can be MONTHS later, your old friend- foot pain- comes roaring back. Once you start getting that fun, crippling, shooting pain it is too late to do anything about it. As far as foot health and skating boot design, I think there has been zero progress, and in my opinion the new 'popular' brand is the worst boot ever conceived as far as preventing stress fractures and foot injury. All this to say, I don't think Bradie WILL be back. I'm not sure Trusova will be back to her former self either. I think it is the one injury that can't be solved by time off the ice, surgery, therapy or anything else.

That is very sad and for an uninformed non-skater like myself, illuminating.

 

[mrrice]

I'm beginning to wonder if Bradie will compete at all until US Nats and with no international competition (or any for that matter) would that lack of exposure hurt her? I know someone cited MK as an example but that was a different era and a different skater.

If Bradie weren't an Olympian, and a 2 time and defending National Champion, that might be the case. However, the committee knows that when Bradie skates well, she is clearly a top Lady for the US after Alysa. It's all about her health. Alysa has the jumps, and she has definitely improved her speed but, IMO, Bradie is still faster and in the arena, that makes a huge difference.

 

[ManyCairns]

The problem with foot injuries, they are often career ending. When the skate is off, you think, hey, all healed, all fine. And then when you are back on the ice, and it can be MONTHS later, your old friend- foot pain- comes roaring back. Once you start getting that fun, crippling, shooting pain it is too late to do anything about it. As far as foot health and skating boot design, I think there has been zero progress, and in my opinion the new 'popular' brand is the worst boot ever conceived as far as preventing stress fractures and foot injury. All this to say, I don't think Bradie WILL be back. I'm not sure Trusova will be back to her former self either. I think it is the one injury that can't be solved by time off the ice, surgery, therapy or anything else.

That is sobering to think of. And I always forget Bradie's age -- she'll be 24 in January, and for some reason, I think of her as younger than Amber, Karen, etc. -- and in fact she's older. I realize age is not the be-all, end-all, but that is approaching the upper limit for a women's singles skater, as a broad generalization, and age may also impact speed of injury recovery.

I love Bradie and her skating and hope she is just trying to heal completely and can get back to full strength in time for Nats and (hopefully) Olys.

 

[ptvvibezz]

Bradie has also withdrawn from one of her CS assignments; Cup of Austria.