2021-2022 US Women's Figure Skating

[Amei]

Here's thing, if Bradie was 100% healthy, this conversation would be over. IMO, Of course. Until we see her, the question mark will be there. Amber has shown that she belongs and if she's on the Podium, it will break my heart if she doesn't go.

well the US ladies have 3 spots, I think we all pretty much assume Alysa is a no brainer on the team so that leaves 2 spots - if Bradie is healthy and skating similar to Nationals last year she's definitely on the team. That leaves 1 more open spot likely between Karen, Lindsay, Mariah and Amber.

 

[mrrice]

well the US ladies have 3 spots, I think we all pretty much assume Alysa is a no brainer on the team so that leaves 2 spots - if Bradie is healthy and skating similar to Nationals last year she's definitely on the team. That leaves 1 more open spot likely between Karen, Lindsay, Mariah and Amber.

Exactly, it's a really difficult decision if they all skate well. Karen is responsible for a large part of the US having our 3rd spot and if she skates well, I'd hate to see her miss the team. Unfortunately she is not a match for a "Clean" Alysa, Bradie, or Lindsay. When you add Amber to this list....There are going to be some broken hearts after the Free Skate at Nationals.

 

[readernick]

That leaves 1 more open spot likely between Karen, Lindsay, Mariah and Ambe

This is my thought, too. If Bradie is healthy, she will be on the team. The fight is for the last spot.

Glad Amber proved me wrong and had a good competition in the FS. This FS is one of the few times she has skated in competition like she does in practice.

As for those getting on the Amber hype train, just be aware it's easy to get on because she is so impressive live but once your on it, it can be a very up and down and depressing ride... The Japanese judge at this event was on the Amber hype train and gave her the highest PCS of this event. Japanese judges ( like me) are suckers for good SS.

I hope she goes for a 3A in her next event but only in the FS. I think this competition shows she needs a decent SP to build confidence
Also, I think I remember she doing a 2AEu3S in the past? She didn't do a 3S at all in her program. She needs another triple in addition to adding the 3A. She has a completely clean protocol but the BV was too low. 3A,3F3T, 2Aeu3S, 3lo, 3Lz, 3lo2T, 3F would have significantly higher BV even if she falls on the 3A

 

[skatingiscool]

https://twitter.com/Fannydoingstuff/status/1451998504344227845

I confess

LOL. We will know by Tuesday. I believe they still need 3 days quarantine in Canada because they don't have WHO approved vaccine yet.

 

[lurkerghost1]

Haha yeah my analysis is the same as yours.

A healthy Bradie is the best bet for group 2 but I think a peak Mariah could do it too, her personal best is 212 which is pretty close. Amber could also do it if she manages to skate clean (big if though).

I don't think Karen could get that top 3 score though and top 5 is her personal best so she's actually lower priority than first appears. But if the big scorers don't score big, she's in.

Mariah is no where near the form she was in when she got that 212 though. Karen scored nearly 70 PCS at Finlandia and got career-high GOE on several elements, the judges really like her this year. Karen scoring 200+ is way more likely at any given event than Amber and Mariah as is. The 210 barrier is so hard for all of them that it’s basically irrelevant.

Amber 'easily' a better skater than Bradie and Thorngren? Doubt that. Amber does a 3lo in her SP when top skaters who do a 3f+3t are also doing a 3z. And Thorngren went for the 3a during the JGP, something Amber will do in practice but doesn't try in international competition.

Amber might have potential to be a better skater than Bradie, Bell and Thorngren, but when it comes to having steady competition nerves, Bradie and Lindsay have it all over Amber. Amber just isn't (and probably never will be) a strong competitor.

Amber is 22 and this will be her one and only shot at the Olympics. If she is going to deliver, it has to be now.

They were not saying she’s a stronger competitor, they were saying she’s a better skater which is absolutely true. From a technical perspective Amber has better jumps than any other US lady as hers are the only one not prone to URs - including Alysa. Every single one of the top 7 US ladies (Tennell Chen Bell Liu Glenn Thorngren Levito) has great spins so Amber isn’t behind there. And ambers skating skills are the best of the bunch besides Karen. Amber’s not a good competitor unlike Bradie Alysa or Karen but she’s definitely just as good of a skater.

Also there are many skaters who put a 3Lo in the short program. Medvedeva and Sakamoto scored 74+ at worlds 2019 with a 3Lo.

 

[lurkerghost1]

The default team right now is still Bradie Karen Alysa. The most vulnerable being Bradie because we don’t know her condition. If Karen manages 200+ at both her GPs she will probably get rescued onto the team even if she finishes 4th at nationals. Especially if it’s Lindsay in 3rd by only a few points. Bradie Karen and Alysa also definitely have the best mental game of the top 6 right now.

However Amber did a lot of good for herself by finally scoring 200+ internationally. If she also goes 200+ at her second GP I can’t see her being skipped over for the team a second year in a row if she podiums because she’ll finally have a body of work.

I do think Lindsay has a very good chance of going to Worlds with Alysa regardless of if she podiums or not at nationals because I think Bradie, Karen, and Mariah at least will skip out on worlds. But I think Lindsay would need a top 2 finish for a shot at the Olympics unless she has a crazy good performance at her upcoming challenger or GPF (210+)

 

[moonvine]

Not including Alysa, since I think she makes the team based on her performance; the only US senior skater that has a body of work argument that could be considered an 'asset' to why she should be put on the team is Bradie. Karen, Mariah and Amber are all pretty much the same skater - flashes of brilliance but technically deficient, unreliable in what they do put on the ice and dependent on top skaters having errors to place well in a stacked competition like Worlds or the Olympics. Karen's only asset to her BOW is that when it mattered at Worlds last year while many other top skaters performed poorly she did not which assisted in getting the third spot.

Yes. When it mattered Karen skated well and she is why we had a chance to earn a 3rd spot. She also skated well at Finlandia. I disagree that she is the “same skater” as Mariah and Amber. We’ve not seen a whole bunch from Mariah this year and Amber hasn’t been consistent. And sadly we’ve not seen Bradie AT ALL. I pray her injury heals quickly.

 

[readernick]

Karen scoring 200+ is way more likely at any given event than Amber and Mariah as is. The 210 barrier is so hard for all of them that it’s basically irrelevant

Actually, Amber could score over 210 without too much trouble with a stronger SP.. confident jumps not nervous ones, getting her levels, and having a least one more triple in her FS. Unlike many other US women she rotates when not too nervous. Now, the question is whether she will do that because her problems with competitive nerves are well documented. Hence this competition being the only time she has scored over 200 internationally.

Honestly, Karen has only scored over 200 three times internationally her entire long career. So, I wouldn't say she is extremely likely to do so consistently at every competition either. It depends on the technical caller. She could score 170 or 205 for very similar outings depending on how strict the technical calling is..

Mariah has done so 7 times ( I think) and has a higher PB than Karen or Amber, but I agree she doesn't seem terribly competitive at the moment and would also need lax technical calling.

Bradie is the one who has a lot of scores over 200. She has scored over 210 far more than any of the other US women. This is why, she is the one who many of us think will make the team if her health allows it.

Amber, Karen and Mariah better watch out for Lindsay.

 

[moonvine]

Here's thing, if Bradie was 100% healthy, this conversation would be over. IMO, Of course. Until we see her, the question mark will be there. Amber has shown that she belongs and if she's on the Podium, it will break my heart if she doesn't go.

I’m going to be happy for those who make it and devastated for those who don’t. Regardless of who each set of ladies are.

 

[Lutzedge]

This is an exciting group!

2022 U.S. Figure Skating Championship Series

Event Results for 2022 U.S. Figure Skating Championship Series

ijs.usfigureskating.org

 

[Lutzedge]

When will we see Kanon Smith compete again? It has been such a long time!

 

[moonvine]

This is an exciting group!

2022 U.S. Figure Skating Championship Series

Event Results for 2022 U.S. Figure Skating Championship Series

ijs.usfigureskating.org

Oh no. I’m going to have to carry a bucket with me all week.

 

[Jammers]

Actually, Amber could score over 210 without too much trouble with a stronger SP.. confident jumps not nervous ones, getting her levels, and having a least one more triple in her FS. Unlike many other US women she rotates when not too nervous. Now, the question is whether she will do that because her problems with competitive nerves are well documented. Hence this competition being the only time she has scored over 200 internationally.

Honestly, Karen has only scored over 200 three times internationally her entire long career. So, I wouldn't say she is extremely likely to do so consistently at every competition either. It depends on the technical caller. She could score 170 or 205 for very similar outings depending on how strict the technical calling is..

Mariah has done so 7 times ( I think) and has a higher PB than Karen or Amber, but I agree she doesn't seem terribly competitive at the moment and would also need lax technical calling.

Bradie is the one who has a lot of scores over 200. She has scored over 210 far more than any of the other US women. This is why, she is the one who many of us think will make the team if her health allows it.

Amber, Karen and Mariah better watch out for Lindsay.

Yeah Karen hasn't been all that great internationally either and does poorly during the GP where she's never come close to a medal and overall doesn't have many medals to her name. This isn't like when Ashley bumped Mirai off the team in 2014 Wagner had the medals and international record to back it up but if say Amber finishes 3rd at Nationals and Karen 4th they should not send Karen.

 

[macy]

i'm very happy for Amber, she was finally able to put out two solid performances on the international scene. this could be a nice springboard for her, but keyword= COULD. she skated lights out and she still wasn't able to break the top half of competitors...she has a lot of work to do outside of the 3A. she's gotta hit her levels and go for a harder technical layout. i'm not sure why she isn't doing lutz combos, her lutz is fine. however i do think she deserved higher PCS than she was given. she really does leave everything out there on the ice and wears her heart on her sleeve. she knows how to draw you in when she has a great performance.

 

[dancelion21]

This performance is a step in the right direction for Amber. It's just unfortunate that she had her breakthrough with the triple axel last season when there weren't many international competitions. As a result, Amber hasn't been able to build a reputation to get higher PCS, which is going to hinder her in the fight for an Olympic spot compared to Bradie, Karen, and Mariah, who will all have higher PCS by virtue of a stronger reputation.

 

[Mathman]

I think that Amber's chances at an Olympic spot (as well as her prospects at U.S. Nationals) come down to "triple Axel or bust." She delivered two beautiful but cautous programs at Skate America -- the best she has ever skated, to me -- but finished only 7th in the short and 7th in the free. Those same programs with a triple Axel -- that's a whole 'nother thing.

(I mean, that's another thing altogether ; ))

 

[ucrgirl]

This performance is a step in the right direction for Amber. It's just unfortunate that she had her breakthrough with the triple axel last season when there weren't many international competitions. As a result, Amber hasn't been able to build a reputation to get higher PCS, which is going to hinder her in the fight for an Olympic spot compared to Bradie, Karen, and Mariah, who will all have higher PCS by virtue of a stronger reputation.

This is definitely a step in the right direction for Amber. It will help if she can get another strong showing in before Nationals. Good for her.

 

[macy]

I think that Amber's chances at an Olympic spot (as well as her prospects at U.S. Nationals) come down to "triple Axel or bust." She delivered two beautiful but cautous programs at Skate America -- the best she has ever skated, to me -- but finished only 7th in the short and 7th in the free. Those same programs with a triple Axel -- that's a whole 'nother thing.

(I mean, that's another thing altogether ; ))

i don't think this is true for Amber, it's more like "skate clean or bust". the triple axel is really only going to be a weapon against Alysa and international competition. she's not going to need it to get on the Olympic team. showing consistency and reliability all season is going to be her ticket. yes she did only finish 7th, but she was the top American finisher and that's really all that matters when it comes to making the team.

 

[drivingmissdaisy]

i don't think this is true for Amber, it's more like "skate clean or bust". the triple axel is really only going to be a weapon against Alysa and international competition. she's not going to need it to get on the Olympic team. showing consistency and reliability all season is going to be her ticket. yes she did only finish 7th, but she was the top American finisher and that's really all that matters when it comes to making the team.

Amber did what she needed to do this weekend. She had a mostly clean SP and a clean LP. She topped 200 internationally for the first time. There are a few things she could have done better, like the 3Lo in the short and achieving higher levels on elements in the long, but if she can build on this and continue to make small improvements there's no reason to think she won't be in the mix for an Olympic spot.

 

[Sjs5572]

i don't think this is true for Amber, it's more like "skate clean or bust". the triple axel is really only going to be a weapon against Alysa and international competition. she's not going to need it to get on the Olympic team. showing consistency and reliability all season is going to be her ticket. yes she did only finish 7th, but she was the top American finisher and that's really all that matters when it comes to making the team.

Amber did place 6th overall!