Can the US Get 3 Ladies to the 2009 Worlds.

[Joesitz (RIP)]

Of course this depends on the results of Worlds 2008. Please correct me. I believe the magic number is 13. That gives a 4+9 or 5+8 or 6+7.

There probably would be a decent chance to get a bronze at the 2008 Worlds (since we know that Miki is vulnerable and not really part of the rivalry - jmo).

Who has the best chance for that bronze medal? Miki? Yukari? Joannie? Carolina? Sara?

If Kimmie were to get the 4th place, then her back up would only have to get a ninth place. Can Kimmie get at least the 4th place?

Can Emily or Ashley get at least 9th place.

Can Emily or Ashley get an 8th or 7th place? if Kimmie falters and gets 5th or 6tj place?

This is, imo, a very important competition for the USFS.

Also are all the numbers in the above IFS correct?

Joe

 

[feraina]

This is an excellent question, Joe. To answer it, I thought I'd compile the 2007-8 season's best scores so far:
1. Yu-na Kim: 197.20 (CoR)
2. Mao Asada: 191.59 (GPF)
3. Carolina Kostner: 178.93 (GPF)
4. Caroline Zhang: 176.48 (GPF)
5. Yukari Nakano: 172. 96 (GPF)
6. Joannie Rochette: 169.91 (TEB)
7. Laura Lepisto: 164.76 (Finnish Nationals)
8. Kiira Korpi: 164. 40 (Finnish Nationals)
9. Jenni Vahaama: 163. 29 (Finlandia Trophy)
10. Kimmie Meissner: 163.23 (SA)
11. Sarah Meier: 163.17 (NHK)
12. Emily Hughes: 162.42 (SC)
13. Mirai Nagasu: 162.09 (JGPF)
14. Miki Ando: 161.89 (SA)
15. Rachael Flatt: 159.66 (JGPF)
16. Ashley Wagner: 158.63 (TEB)

Alissa Csizny: 144.32
Bebe Liang: 134.60

Note that the scores for the Finnish ladies are not from major ISU championships, and their ISU SB's are all lower than Ashley Wagner's -- although if they skate clean, I do think they all have a decent chance to score around 160 at World's. But I wouldn't place bets on all three skating clean (nor on all three not skating clean).

Caroline is not going to be there, obviously. But Miki Ando should pull up into top 5. If Kimmie gets back the form she had at SA (an "if" in it self), then she's likely to place 7-9, and with good luck, 5-6th, or with bad luck, 10th or lower. Yu-na, Mao, Yukari, and Joannie all look in much better form than Kimmie. With her under-rotated, toe-axeled 3T seriously penalized this year, Kimmie has no longer any technical advantage over Yukari or Joannie. In fact, Yukari's spins and consistency put her significantly above Kimmie. And Joannie's PCS has gone up signifincantly since last season. Hence Kimmie can do no better than 5th, and that's if Carolina bombs after a stellar GPF (with Carolina you just never know!), AND Miki falling out of top 5. Otherwise, Kimmie can hope for at most 6th or 7th. In the worst case, Carolina along with the Finnish ladies all deliver, Sarah Meier improves on her NHK skate (there's plenty of room), and Kimmie will finish out of top 10!

Emily is in a similar situation as Kimmie, just slightly worse off. She hasn't had flip or lutz all season, we'll see if she brings them back at National's (or World's).

Has anyone considered the possibility of having only ONE spot at LA Worlds in 2009? I sure hope not, but if Kimmie finishes out of top 10 (I say 10% probability right now), and Emily too, then that's what's gonna happen! The trouble is that Kimmie & Emily have been regressing this season compared to previous ones, while Yukari, Joannie, the Finnish ladies, and Sarah Meier have all been steadily improving.

I think the only chance of US retaining 3 spots is if Kimmie places 5th (best case scenario) and Emily 8th (also best case), and this depends on their both delivering their best, PLUS others failing (like Kostner bombing again and placing 6th, Miki having a terrible skate, none of the Finnish ladies skating to their potential). Ashley Wagner is unlikely to save the day as of now. And Alissa & Bebe's results are abysmal (they're nowhere close to 17th or 18th on the season's best list, beaten by the likes of Mira Leung, Elege Gedevanishvili, Nina Petushkova -- exactly, who? -- and others).

So, I'd say that 10% they manage to retain 3, 10% they lose all but 1, and 80% they get two spots. At this point, I'm almost grateful if there are two spots.

What's both encouraging and depressing is that Mirai and Rachael both look very promising. With another spin in the senior LP, Mirai can expect to gain 3.5 points, and Rachael 2.5 -- that would put Mirai in 7th, and Rachael just behind Emily. Now if we had Caroline, Kimmie, and Mirai as the Worlds team, I'd say we have 95% chance of retaining 3 spots! Unfortunately...

By next season, Mirai will perhaps have mastered a 3-3 (if she hasn't, then one should worry, b/c any woman who's ever had a consistent 3-3 had it by 15 or younger), as well as sorted out her under-rotation problems, and Rachael will probably finally get her 3-3 ratified in the SP, and doubtless she will further improve her skating skills and posture and musicality and increase her PCS. I think in 2009 we will send an excellent worlds team, and even with just two members, that team is likely to get three spots for the Olympics. The youngsters are very promising, and Caroline & Mirai are clearly the brightest young stars. If there are only two spots next season, I hope they get to go and get some Worlds experience before the Olympics!

 

[Tinymavy15]

yes, i think that kimmie will place no lower than 5th, emily no lower than 9th. this will get the U.S 3 spots. of course if caroline or Marai could compete we would have no worries. Stupid age rule!

 

[Tesla]

yes, i think that kimmie will place no lower than 5th, emily no lower than 9th. this will get the U.S 3 spots. of course if caroline or Marai could compete we would have no worries. Stupid age rule!

If this happened, then the US would only get to send 2 ladies. 5 + 9 = 14

 

[MissIzzy]

One lady at the 2009 Worlds and I would not want to be that lady; she'd be under pressure to get the US three Olympic spots by her lonesome, and I don't remember if she could get it with silver or would need gold(bronze wouldn't do it; Yu-Na only got Korea two spots this year), but being under pressure to beat out either Yu-Na or Mao, especially because unless she's Kimmie or Emily(and if they keep going the way they are she won't be!), Ashley Wagner, Sasha Cohen(if she comes back) or by some weird rearrangement of the universe and/or heavy duty nerves training Alissa Czisny it would probably be her first Worlds, and in her home country...could you imagine? But to get three spots, Emily would have to fix her jumps or Ashley would have to make a very big leap, and for two spots, we have to really hope Kimmie doesn't fumble it!

 

[kandidy]

This is an excellent question, Joe. To answer it, I thought I'd compile the 2007-8 season's best scores so far:
1. Yu-na Kim: 197.20 (GPF)


:

Thnks for your score update, however, I think Yuna's score is from CoR?

 

[Sylvia]

Note that the scores for the Finnish ladies are not from major ISU championships, and their ISU SB's are all lower than Ashley Wagner's -- although if they skate clean, I do think they all have a decent chance to score around 160 at World's. But I wouldn't place bets on all three skating clean (nor on all three not skating clean).

Nationals scores are usually quite inflated compared to ISU scores -- Kiira Korpi's best ISU score this season was 154.25 (CoR) and Laura Lepisto's was 147.69 (SC). Also, it should be noted that Finland only has 2 ladies' spots for 2008 Worlds. (BTW, Ashley Wagner's 158.63 score was at TEB, not SC.)

Has anyone considered the possibility of having only ONE spot at LA Worlds in 2009? I sure hope not, but if Kimmie finishes out of top 10 (I say 10% probability right now), and Emily too, then that's what's gonna happen!

The top 2 U.S. ladies would have to place 13th and 16th at 2008 Worlds in order to lose 2 World team spots for 2009! (14-28 points gets 2 spots) IMO, there's no need for all this "gloom and doom" just yet -- let's wait and see what happens at U.S. Nationals...

 

[feraina]

Thanks for the corrections on Yu-na and Ashley -- at least I got the scores right, if not the locations.

I couldn't find any videos of Finnish National's, but I did just watch Jenni's Finlandia skate and Laura Lepisto's SC SP. I thought Jenni's skate was inflated by about 10-15 points, so quite significant. Laura Lepisto was first in the SP at SC, but fell apart in the LP. I guess she doesn't have a consistent 3F or 3Lz, or she would've put it into her SP?

The top 2 U.S. ladies would have to place 13th and 16th at 2008 Worlds in order to lose 2 World team spots for 2009! (14-28 points gets 2 spots) IMO, there's no need for all this "gloom and doom" just yet -- let's wait and see what happens at U.S. Nationals...

That makes me feel a little better. I thought it was 10th because Joannie placed 10th last year and barely saved Canada two spots. Now I just read in an old article that she needed 12th, since Mira placed 24th. That doesn't seem to make sense -- their total would've been 36.

 

[Sylvia]

I thought it was 10th because Joannie placed 10th last year and barely saved Canada two spots. Now I just read in an old article that she needed 12th, since Mira placed 24th. That doesn't seem to make sense -- their total would've been 36.

See: http://www.frogsonice.com/skateweb/faq/rules.shtml#Q10
"Now the formula is based on adding the placements of the two best competitors from the country. Competitors who didn't qualify for the free skate get 18 points, and anyone who finishes lower than 16th overall gets 16 points."

I couldn't find any videos of Finnish National's, but I did just watch Jenni's Finlandia skate and Laura Lepisto's SC SP. I thought Jenni's skate was inflated by about 10-15 points, so quite significant. Laura Lepisto was first in the SP at SC, but fell apart in the LP. I guess she doesn't have a consistent 3F or 3Lz, or she would've put it into her SP?

Correct. There was quite a bit of discussion regarding the reportedly inflated senior ladies' scores at Finnish Nationals on FSU.

 

[feraina]

Given that Finland only has 2 spots (all this talk about Susanna Poykio missing out on the 3-women team had me confused, but now I remember it was Euros that they have 3 spots for, not Worlds), and the Finlandia Trophy and Finnish Nationals are both inflated, I still think Kimmie is likely to place 6-8, and if really lucky, 5 -- this requires Carolina Kostner to bomb AND Miki Ando to withdraw with injury. And Emily, is likely to place 9-11, and if really lucky, 8 -- this requires all three Finnish ladies to bomb AND Miki Ando to withdraw with injury.

If Sylvia is right and 14-28 is the range for two spots (thanks for the informative link), then I think there's 10% probability of retaining 3, and 5% of getting only 1. Emily only placed 13th in the LP at '07 Worlds. US just barely squeaked out three spots last year, it'll be really lucky to squeak by with 3 again this year, with the resurgent Joannie Rochette and the impressive Finnish young ladies all in play.

 

[feraina]

Ooops, can the mods please change the thread title to mention spoilers? I think I just about gave away the results at GPF (who knew Yu-na would place ... um... dead last? ).

Honestly, is there anyone here who hasn't seen or heard about GPF results?!

 

[gkelly]

b/c any woman who's ever had a consistent 3-3 had it by 15 or younger),

Your considering Slutskaya's inconsistent?

What about Kulovana's?

 

[gkelly]

One lady at the 2009 Worlds and I would not want to be that lady; she'd be under pressure to get the US three Olympic spots by her lonesome, and I don't remember if she could get it with silver or would need gold(bronze wouldn't do it; Yu-Na only got Korea two spots this year),

Silver would earn three spots, bronze only two.

From the link Sylvia provided:

For a 1-competitor team in the previous year, 1-2 points qualifies 3 entries, 3-10 points qualifies 2 entries and more than 10 points qualifies 1 entry.

 

[feraina]

Your considering Slutskaya's inconsistent?

I did think of Slutskaya in the back of my mind. Funny thing is that in an earlier thread, I used her as an example of someone who learned new 3-3's in her 20's. I think the replies I got back that time mentioned she started working on them much earlier.

Irina was an extraordinary skater, though -- how many ladies can come from major debilitating diseases as she has and then jump and skate like she did? But you also can't call her all that consistent. Her jumps, especially the 3-3's, deserted her on the biggest stages. And her career went up and down, up and down, like a yo-yo...

ETA: wrt Kulovana, how many times did she land 3-3's in competition (I ask out of ignorance)?

 

[gkelly]

I think the first time she did it competition she was 16. And she did land three different 3-3s at various points over the years. But not especially consistently.

 

[gkelly]

ETA: wrt Kulovana, how many times did she land 3-3's in competition (I ask out of ignorance)?

I don't know offhand how many. Definitely more than once, and sometimes the only triples landed in her program were the two triple toes in that combo. The only other triple that she had close to consistent was the salchow.

I think either Kulovana or Krisztina Czako, or maybe Surya Bonaly, was the first woman to land 3-3 in a short program -- at 1997 Euros. I don't remember what the skate order was.

 

[feraina]

I think the first time she did it competition she was 16. And she did land three different 3-3s at various points over the years. But not especially consistently.

You're talking about Irina here, right? So maybe I should've said 16 or younger (but only if you're extraordinary like Irina). Wasn't it also the case that girls weren't allowed to do 3-3's at the junior levels until relatively recently?

3T-3T is the easiest combo, and sometimes these can be mastered even when one doesn't have the harder triples: as we see with Laura Lepisto and Lenka Kulovana.

Under CoP it's not really worth putting in a 3T-3T if you have 3Lz and 3F, as you probably garner more points by repeating the 3lz and 3F (each in combination with double jumps) instead of repeating the 3T.

 

[gkelly]

You're talking about Irina here, right? So maybe I should've said 16 or younger (but only if you're extraordinary like Irina).

Yeah.

Wasn't it also the case that girls weren't allowed to do 3-3's at the junior levels until relatively recently?

In the short program. It was always allowed in the long.

See my post in the US Nationals forum:
http://www.goldenskate.com/forum/showpost.php?p=286719&postcount=15

3T-3T is the easiest combo, and sometimes these can be mastered even when one doesn't have the harder triples: as we see with Laura Lepisto and Lenka Kulovana.

True.

Under CoP it's not really worth putting in a 3T-3T if you have 3Lz and 3F, as you probably garner more points by repeating the 3lz and 3F (each in combination with double jumps) instead of repeating the 3T.

Also true, if the quality or consistency are comparable, for the long program.

But if one can do 3T+3T and no other triple-triple, that combo plus solo 3Lz would maximize the jump base mark in the short.

 

[attyfan]

I think the first time she did it competition she was 16. And she did land three different 3-3s at various points over the years. But not especially consistently.

I thought Irina landed her really difficult 3-3s (like the 3/lutz - 3/loop) for the first time when she was in her early 20s.

 

[Tinymavy15]

well all i can say is that it is a real pity that the U.S ladies will not be strong enough to hold onto those 3 places for the 2009 worlds... becasue then one good american lady will be refused a spot when it's right here in LA... and there will be more ladies vying for those spots. It would not surprise me at all tha come 2009, the 2 spots go to two ladies who are making thier senior worlds debut.