Can the US Get 3 Ladies to the 2009 Worlds.

[feraina]

On the bright side, there will be lots of US ladies on the GP circuit next year, so at least all the girls shooting for Vancouver will get two seasons' international experience before the Olympics.

Based on JGPF, both Mirai and Rachael are guaranteed 1 spot each, though Mirai will probably get two (SA and NHK). Depends on how Rachael does at JW, she might get two as well -- Ashley placed 2nd at JGPF and 3rd at JW last year, and got two GP's this year, Rachael might do just that (or better) this year.

Based on Season's Best list, Caroline, Kimmie, Emily, and Ashley will each get at least one GP. But in reality they will probably each get two -- Caroline's stellar GP debut pretty much guarantees her two. USFSA/NBC will want her for SA, and CoC and NHK will fight over her, since she's big in both countries. The other three will probably be our World's team, and if they place within 12th, they're guaranteed 2 events.

Alissa and Bebe will probably get one assignment each based on their GP results, plus maybe one or both will get sent to 4CC to improve on their SB's.

That gives the US a whopping eight GP ladies. By this measure, this might be the most "successful"/"strongest" US ladies' field. U.S. ladies' skating in decline, says who?

Here's a helpful FSU thread on GP selection criteria
http://www.fsuniverse.net/forum/showthread.php?t=49319&page=2

ETA: The fight for being sent to Vancouver will be fierce! I suspect that by the end of the 2008-9 season, Alissa, Bebe, and Emily will all have faded from the scene. That still leaves five very talented young ladies fighting for three spots (if US has that many!). Of course, puberty and injury and other random factors might well juggle things around in the next 2 years. Personally, I think it's shaping up to be a 5-lady rivalry. US might not have one single super-star, but it has many very talented young ladies!

 

[yelyoh]

I would not count Kimmie out of even some shot at a bronze medal. There are three months until Worlds and a lot can happen. She has been getting PSCs in the 7s (Not many women have) and with just an okay skate technically I think she can wind up no lower than 6th. The bigger concern is the second US woman. I think Emily (no doubt she will make the team) may have problems winding up in the top ten. I do think that three spots for the US women at Worlds 09 is doubtful. But by the Olys there should be three spots again. Just my two cents (including inflation).

 

[feraina]

Just my two cents (including inflation).

 

[museksk8r]

Sure, if Kimmie and Ashley (or whomever the 2 top US reps end up being) finish 6th and 7th, 5th and 8th, 4th and 9th, 3rd and 10th, 2nd and 11th, or 1st and 12th.

Given the surprisingly weak performances this season by Miki Ando, we've definitely been given evidence that anything is possible. This season has sure been UNPREDICTABLE! The US has to hope that Ashley Wagner does not choke due to 1st time Senior World-itis a la Tara Lipinski in 1996. The US also has to hope that Kimmie can rebound from what has been a very difficult mid-point of the season.

With Yu-Na Kim, Mao Asada, Yukari Nakano, Joannie Rochette, Carolina Kostner, and Sarah Meier, there is steady competition, but if Kimmie and Ashley do what they are capable of, I think chances of 3 spots for next season are possible, particularly when you look outside of their performances to what has happened to the other ladies around the world. No one has really been invincible when you examine both the SP AND LP performances.

 

[Joesitz (RIP)]

On the bright side, there will be lots of US ladies on the GP circuit next year, so at least all the girls shooting for Vancouver will get two seasons' international experience before the Olympics

I think the Olys is also driven by the placements of the previous Worlds. So if the 2008 Worlds fails to produce 3 US Skaters qualifying for the the 2009 Worlds, then the 2010 Olys (which follows the 2009 Worlds) will fall under that same rule, unless of course, the one eligible skater in 2009 wins the 2009 Worlds I believe.

I don't believe the GPs have anything to do with this.

Also I think Sylvia may be correct in saying we should look at this much later when it may not look so gloom and doom. I just thought that it is an issue for this year's US Nats.

Joe

 

[Lumi]

I didn't read the whole discussion but..

I really would not say that Finlandia Trophy score were that mutch inflated. Kiira's and Laura's scores were actually very accurately in line with the scores they recived in GP competitions. And Jenni's score... She landed 6 triples plus axel and her spins and spirals were on about level 3s... That kind of skates tend to score around 110-115. Fereina said she had 10-15 points too mutch. So you think her free was worse than Kimmie's in GPF? Were did you saw Jenni having too many points? What made her skate worse than Kimmie's?

... And bit more... biggrin Laura dosen't have consistent lutz or flip. Lutzes can be there in practice, but flips, no sigh of them...

For Kiira, I expect some further improvment for her PB score if she skates even close to clean, since she has really upgraded her spin level in comparision to previous seasons.

 

[gkelly]

I think the Olys is also driven by the placements of the previous Worlds. So if the 2008 Worlds fails to produce 3 US Skaters qualifying for the the 2009 Worlds, then the 2010 Olys (which follows the 2009 Worlds) will fall under that same rule, unless of course, the one eligible skater in 2009 wins the 2009 Worlds I believe.

If there are not three US ladies at 2009 Worlds, then there will be either two or one. More likely two.

If there are two, then the placements of those two will need to add up to no more than 13 to earn three places for 2010.

If there is one, then she would need to place first or second to earn three places.

 

[hockeyfan228]

It's actually pretty difficulty to lose two positions. It would take a big disaster for two of three US Ladies to not qualify for the LP. There isn't a singles skater below 24th at Worlds last year who has close to the technical content as the top 6-8 at US Nats. If you factor in the PCS, the only single PCS score of 5 or more in last year's SP for a skater ranked 25 or below was Karademir's skating skills. (SP scores are factored by .8). Even Tamar Katz's were in the 4's, and she qualified for the LP.

I don't think that if the US team is any combination of Meissner (PCS high 6's, 7's), Hughes (PCS solid 6's), Liang (PCS mid 5's) and Wagner (PCS high 5's), and Czissny (PCS solid 6's) that is likely not to qualify for the LP, let along two, short of an epidemic hitting.

Which means the worst case scenario for all three qualifying are top two finishes of 13 and below. Meissner may have trouble staying in the top 10 if everyone hits, but if she does (or places down to 12th), and skater #2 can qualify for the LP, and the US Ladies would get two spots for 2009. There would be a lot of pressure on those two to bring back three for 2010.

 

[feraina]

And Jenni's score... She landed 6 triples plus axel and her spins and spirals were on about level 3s...

I think Jenni's skate at Finnish National's would not have beaten Rachael's in Vienna (she got 154.65). I would give Jenni somewhat lower PCS than Rachael (they are both slow, but Rachael's more polished in her transitions and footwork), lower GOE's on the jumps (one or two of Jenni's looked downgrade-able too), plus Rachael had a ratified 3Lz/3T in the LP (7 triples). So I think altogether I would given Jenni a score of not more than 150 under ISU judging -- instead of the 163.29. That's why I said about 10-15 points inflated.

 

[chuckm]

I didn't read the whole discussion but..

I really would not say that Finlandia Trophy score were that mutch inflated. Kiira's and Laura's scores were actually very accurately in line with the scores they recived in GP competitions.

And Jenni's score... She landed 6 triples plus axel and her spins and spirals were on about level 3s... That kind of skates tend to score around 110-115. Fereina said she had 10-15 points too mutch.

I do think Jenni's scores were very inflated at Finlandia. As feraina pointed out, Rachael Flatt's TES would have been higher than Jenni's TES at Finlandia because Rachael landed 7 triples to Jenni's 6. Jenni received 59.03 for TES at Finlandia, while Rachael received 62.18 for her JGPF FS, which had one less spin than Jenni's Finlandia FS (another spin would have given Rachael another 2.5-3 points).

But there was also a huge difference between the PCS scores Jenni received at Finlandia compared to those she got in her JGP/JGPF results:

53.04 6.65 6.30 6.85 6.70 6.65 Finlandia
43.02 5.56 5.16 5.22 5.53 5.41 JGPF
41.29 5.34 5.06 4.94 5.19 5.28 JGP CRO FS
43.05 5.50 5.25 5.34 5.38 5.44 JGP AUT FS

The differences do add up to at least 15 points.

For comparison, with a clean 7-triple FS at the JGPF, Rachael received
45.37 5.81 5.38 5.72 5.66 5.78

 

[GoldMedalist]

It would be a huge shame if the U.S. doesn't get 3 spots for 2009, considering the massive amount of talent that will be competing for that World team.

The whole 3-per-country thing is pretty bad in the first place.

 

[Jaana]

8. Kiira Korpi: 164. 40 (Finnish Nationals)

The results from Finnish Nationals are a joke, unfortunately... In 2007 Worlds Kiira was 14th with a total score of 149,47

http://www.isufs.org/results/wc2007/CAT002RS.HTM

In Europeans 2007 Kiira was third with a total score of 151.19.

http://www.isufs.org/results/ec2007/CAT002RS.HTM

Those scores are probably a lot nearer to the truth than her 164.40 from Finnish Nationals.

 

[fairly4]

i can't see Kimmie finishing out of the top 5 at worlds, unless she skates badly like she did at GPF or something like she did at TEB.
it will be up the the 2nd US lady to make it so the USA can send 3 ladies to the 2009 worlds. right now Emily is their decent shot--but she Can't skate like she did at last years worlds. because of her bad skate she just barely made it for 3 ladies this year. she does that again because of the improvement in all the other countries skaters, it will be harder for Emily to hold them off on a bad skate.
I didn't count Alyssa in because she can't handle the pressure of it.
This year there will be pressure on all 3 USA ladies to keep 3 spots open for 2009 worlds. We will see if they can handle the pressue to do it, if not well that is life.

 

[R.D.]

Well, can they?

I have to see how Meissner does at US Nats before I can make a good projection. That'll also give us the opportunity to see Hughes again and the current state of all our ladies.

 

[alicelouise]

How many for 2009?

I would say probably 2. It will be interesting if that is the case. The US judges will take a hard look at all the skaters and decide who can deliver the goods.

I would feel very sorry for the US skater, if she is the only US skater, at the 2009 Worlds.

I think the US will be able to send 2 ladies for the 2010 Olympics. JMHO

 

[Mathman]

I would say probably 2. It will be interesting if that is the case. The US judges will take a hard look at all the skaters and decide who can deliver the goods.

I would feel very sorry for the US skater, if she is the only US skater, at the 2009 Worlds.

I think the US will be able to send 2 ladies for the 2010 Olympics. JMHO

Oh, I don't think so at all. First, I don't think the U.S. judges will try to decide who can deliver the goods at Worlds. I think they will send the skater who wins U.S. Nationals. If they have a second or third spot, they will send whoever finishes second and/or third.

I would not feel sorry for a U.S. skater who won the U.S. championship and with it the right to compete at the World championship. What's to feel sorry about? I might feel sorry for #2 or #3, though, if they didn't get to go.

About the Olympics, the number of places will be determined by the placements at 2009 worlds. By that time Caroline Zhang, Mirai Nagasu, Rachel Flatt, and Ashley Wagner will all be at their peak. We will be having the same conversation. Can Caroline and Mirai finish, say 4th and 9th to assure 3 spots at the Olympics for U.S. ladies?

 

[R.D.]

but if we go down to two entries for '09 Worlds (which is the path we seem to be headed to), we may need a medalist to get back 3 spots for us at the Olympics.

 

[Mathman]

but if we go down to two entries for '09 Worlds (which is the path we seem to be headed to), we may need a medalist to get back 3 spots for us at the Olympics.

I think the rules are the same whether you have two skaters or three. (?) The first two have to get a total of 13 or fewer, to get three Olympic spots. Yes?

 

[ks777]

but if we go down to two entries for '09 Worlds (which is the path we seem to be headed to), we may need a medalist to get back 3 spots for us at the Olympics.

we can't let that happen!! we might have to use the last option at worlds 2008. which is Have Johny Weir compete as Joannie Weir in the ladies and win the 3spot for the US.

 

[Joesitz (RIP)]

With all due respect to the Finnish Nationals, I would like to state clearly what is going on with the US Nationals i 2008.

The USFS will select 3 skaters to represent the US at the 2008 Worlds. The US Nats precedes that Worlds by 2 months. From past seasons, the USFS has always permitted the gold medalist at the Nationals preceding the Worlds to go to that competition. I'm not sure that is written in stone or just by tradition. The silver and bronze medalists by tradition also go but that is not so steadfast. There have been exceptions.

The selected three will compete in 2008 Worlds and their placements at that competition will permit the number of skaters (from 1 to 3) for Worlds 2009. The number of placements for the 2010 Olys will depend on the results of the 2009 Worlds. (The Olys precedes the Worlds in 2010.)

So my point is that the US Nats 2008 will be a humdinger. Will the USFS give the 3 positions to the results of that Nats?

Aside from the usual suspects, there will be Katy, Bebe, Alyssa and the Eastern Sectional champ, Katrina Hacker.

The 2008 US Nats is the hottest Nats in years, and St Paul has it. (Not much use in thinking about 2008 and 09 Worlds until this is settled.)

Joe