What Skaters will skate which events In the Olympic Team Event Competition?

[4everchan]

Near and dear to your heart: This exact scenario played out in 2018 when V/M skated both segments of the team event, but P/C opted out of the SP because France didn't have a reasonable expectation of advancing to the free programs.

I've often wondered how things would have played out if the French had taken the opportunity to get that first Olympic performance under their belts before the individual event.

it may have helped them... or not... since we live in the what ifs... what if the wardrobe malfunction had happened at the team event... and the French would have lost their edge over VM. + the French team not qualifying for the FD, so no opportunity to take the ice... getting even more nervous about that evil dress for the ice dance RD event.. It may have even been worse for them just playing the what if game of course... but yeah i guess it's a slow day for me.... may the best man be chosen for the USA team.

 

[dancelion21]

I think it is all but confirmed confirmed that the dance event will be split. A different journalist at C/B's teleconference reports that C/B said that they discussed splitting the team event with H/D, thought "it is ultimately not their choice." I struggle to think that USFS would force only one dance team to compete it if both teams have expressed their desire to split.

https://twitter.com/ClaireCloutier/status/1473426707172442119

 

[Tavi...]

i understood what you meant.... but your mathematical demonstration didn't convince me your comparison to the Georgian team also fails to convince me ... simply because Vincent did well in all his very important competitions for the USA this year : qualifying the 3rd man at Nebelhorn, so thanks to him, a third man (who may be Jason as a matter of fact) may have a spot that was never guaranteed on the men's team to start with, and did extremely well at Skate America. He also finished second at NHK. His combined total score is 556 on the GP circuit. Jason's is 523. Vincent had a consistent season, even his lowest outing on GP was in the realm of Jason's best outing. So that's for me not a real factor. Consistency is a funny thing because it may come and then go... It seems to me, though I am not a huge follower of either man, that Vincent has shown a better consistency since his disastrous 2021 SP at worlds... and the kicker for me is Vincent's world medal, something Jason has not achieved. We are talking here about an almost locked down Olympic medal for an athlete. I would find it odd to not put the highest scoring man in contention for that precious opportunity for whatever reason.

I wish Vincent the best and I think he has a 99+% chance of being elected for the TE FS. And I’m sure he’ll want to take advantage of the opportunity for many reasons, and he’ll probably do great.

But I think you’re looking at the data a bit selectively. If we include Worlds 2021, Vincent has competed 5 times this season. For these purposes, only his FS scores matter, and they were: 0 (Worlds), 185+ (Cranberry), 186+ (Nebelhorn), 198+ (Skate America), and 161+ (NHK). For purposes of his median score (which USFS plans to use when looking at scoring trends) Worlds doesn’t count. So his median score is 185+. Great, right? And quite a bit higher than Jason’s median score of about 170+.

What the median doesn’t take into account is that at his most recent outing, Vincent’s FS score took a nosedive - it was nearly 25 points below his median and 35+ points below his season’s best score, and for the record, it was lower than Jason’s lowest score this fall (165). Put another way, out of the 5 competitions that “count” this season, Vincent did great at 3 (although two of those 3 were at competitions in the US) and much worse at 2. Meaning that based on an admittedly tiny number of results, you can only expect him to score 185+ 60% of the time. Unfair? Well, if you look back at his history as a senior, you can see a somewhat similar pattern. What you’re advocating is that USFS gamble on the 60% chance that the team event will be one of Vincent’s really good competitions. And I’m pretty sure they will gamble on him, especially if he does great at Nats, as I’m sure he will.

One other thing to end my novella. Worlds was arguably the most important of the 5 competitions Vincent has skated at this year. That was where we had a chance to get 3 spots outright for the Olympics. The only reason he had to go to Nebelhorn and qualify a spot was because he failed to make the FS at Worlds. So it’s just not accurate to say he did well at all his very important competitions.

The end.

 

[4everchan]

I wish Vincent the best and I think he has a 99+% chance of being elected for the TE FS. And I’m sure he’ll want to take advantage of the opportunity for many reasons, and he’ll probably do great.

But I think you’re looking at the data a bit selectively. If we include Worlds 2021, Vincent has competed 5 times this season. For these purposes, only his FS scores matter, and they were: 0 (Worlds), 185+ (Cranberry), 186+ (Nebelhorn), 198+ (Skate America), and 161+ (NHK). For purposes of his median score (which USFS plans to use when looking at scoring trends) Worlds doesn’t count. So his median score is 185+. Great, right? And quite a bit higher than Jason’s median score of about 170+.

What the median doesn’t take into account is that at his most recent outing, Vincent’s FS score took a nosedive - it was nearly 25 points below his median and 35+ points below his season’s best score, and for the record, it was lower than Jason’s lowest score this fall (165). Put another way, out of the 5 competitions that “count” this season, Vincent did great at 3 (although two of those 3 were at competitions in the US) and much worse at 2. Meaning that based on an admittedly tiny number of results, you can only expect him to score 185+ 60% of the time. Unfair? Well, if you look back at his history as a senior, you can see a somewhat similar pattern. What you’re advocating is that USFS gamble on the 60% chance that the team event will be one of Vincent’s really good competitions. And I’m pretty sure they will gamble on him, especially if he does great at Nats, as I’m sure he will.

One other thing to end my novella. Worlds was arguably the most important of the 5 competitions Vincent has skated at this year. That was where we had a chance to get 3 spots outright for the Olympics. The only reason he had to go to Nebelhorn and qualify a spot was because he failed to make the FS at Worlds. So it’s just not accurate to say he did well at all his very important competitions.

The end.

thanks for your input... It seems to me that many are saying that Vincent should go but are full of resources to explain why Jason should be chosen... and that is fine As I said, I do not follow either skaters closely. So I am not really that invested. May the best skater be chosen ! It's a special opportunity to represent your country in a team event..

My selection didn't include worlds 2021... the ISU seasons are not organized in calendar year but from july 1st to june 30th. so i only considered those events. so it was not an oversight or "selective memory" when looking at data but an informed selection

 

[el henry]

I wish Vincent the best and I think he has a 99+% chance of being elected for the TE FS. And I’m sure he’ll want to take advantage of the opportunity for many reasons, and he’ll probably do great.

But I think you’re looking at the data a bit selectively. If we include Worlds 2021, Vincent has competed 5 times this season. For these purposes, only his FS scores matter, and they were: 0 (Worlds), 185+ (Cranberry), 186+ (Nebelhorn), 198+ (Skate America), and 161+ (NHK). For purposes of his median score (which USFS plans to use when looking at scoring trends) Worlds doesn’t count. So his median score is 185+. Great, right? And quite a bit higher than Jason’s median score of about 170+.

What the median doesn’t take into account is that at his most recent outing, Vincent’s FS score took a nosedive - it was nearly 25 points below his median and 35+ points below his season’s best score, and for the record, it was lower than Jason’s lowest score this fall (165). Put another way, out of the 5 competitions that “count” this season, Vincent did great at 3 (although two of those 3 were at competitions in the US) and much worse at 2. Meaning that based on an admittedly tiny number of results, you can only expect him to score 185+ 60% of the time. Unfair? Well, if you look back at his history as a senior, you can see a somewhat similar pattern. What you’re advocating is that USFS gamble on the 60% chance that the team event will be one of Vincent’s really good competitions. And I’m pretty sure they will gamble on him, especially if he does great at Nats, as I’m sure he will.

One other thing to end my novella. Worlds was arguably the most important of the 5 competitions Vincent has skated at this year. That was where we had a chance to get 3 spots outright for the Olympics. The only reason he had to go to Nebelhorn and qualify a spot was because he failed to make the FS at Worlds. So it’s just not accurate to say he did well at all his very important competitions.

The end.

Thank you for putting together the numbers that I was too lazy to put together.

I appreciate your objective analysis.

 

[Tavi...]

thanks for your input... It seems to me that many are saying that Vincent should go but are full or resources to explain why Jason should be chosen... and that is fine As I said, I do not follow either skaters closely. So I am not really that invested. May the best skater be chosen ! It's a special opportunity to represent your country in a team event..

My selection didn't include worlds 2021... the ISU seasons are not organized in calendar year but from july 1st to june 30th. so i only considered those events. so it was not an oversight or "selective memory" when looking at data but an informed selection

Ugh my cat is sick and woke me up so I hope this is coherent.

I guess I missed the people saying Jason should be on the team. But it’s not surprising you mostly don’t follow either one of these US guys! Ask me to tell you Conrad, Corey, or Jo’s scores this season and I’d be like, no idea. Even with Roman, who I love and do follow a bit, I couldn’t tell you much except that he struggled in qualifying a spot at Nebelhorn and then did much better in his most recent outing.

Worlds 2021 is a bit of an oddity in terms of the US Olympic selection. It’s included as one of the competitions whose scores count in the selection process, but when Phil Hersh asked USFS if Vincent’s scores there would factor into the median, an unnamed spokesperson said no, bc he didn’t make the FS. Which is a bit weird if you ask me, but they didn’t. I generally think as long as V does well at Nats they’ll ignore it altogether, but objectively it does raise questions about his reliability. At least, according to me.

 

[4everchan]

Ugh my cat is sick and woke me up so I hope this is coherent.

I guess I missed the people saying Jason should be on the team. But it’s not surprising you mostly don’t follow either one of these US guys! Ask me to tell you Conrad, Corey, or Jo’s scores this season and I’d be like, no idea. Even with Roman, who I love and do follow a bit, I couldn’t tell you much except that he struggled in qualifying a spot at Nebelhorn and then did much better in his most recent outing.

Worlds 2021 is a bit of an oddity in terms of the US Olympic selection. It’s included as one of the competitions whose scores count in the selection process, but when Phil Hersh asked USFS if Vincent’s scores there would factor into the median, an unnamed spokesperson said no, bc he didn’t make the FS. Which is a bit weird if you ask me, but they didn’t. I generally think as long as V does well at Nats they’ll ignore it altogether, but objectively it does raise questions about his reliability. At least, according to me.

i follow US skaters too but mostly Nathan and the ice dancers I wouldn't expect anyone to know what is going on with Jo who has had a 11 month hiatus due to injury or Conrad who is just starting to emerge.... When I say I don't follow Jason or Vincent, it's not like I do not watch them skate it's more like I am not invested in them like I am with Nathan, Shoma ,Aliev or was with Patrick. We all have our favourites I mentioned that since I thought I could offer a neutral opinion since I am not a fan of either of these American guys.... and they are polarizing.

 

[Tavi...]

i follow US skaters too but mostly Nathan and the ice dancers I wouldn't expect anyone to know what is going on with Jo who has had a 11 month hiatus due to injury or Conrad who is just starting to emerge.... When I say I don't follow Jason or Vincent, it's not like I do not watch them skate it's more like I am not invested in them like I am with Nathan, Shoma ,Aliev or was with Patrick. We all have our favourites I mentioned that since I thought I could offer a neutral opinion since I am not a fan of either of these American guys.... and they are polarizing.

No question, they are absolutely polarizing!

 

[el henry]

No question, they are absolutely polarizing!

aw, say it isn't so

But I appreciate that you took the time to evaluate the numbers. Just because a poster is a fan doesn't mean a poster is blinded to all other skaters' virtues. Saying Vincent is inconsistent is not saying he shouldn't be on the team; it is saying his selection is not some sort of no brainer (like Nathan's selection is. I'm not invested in Nathan, but I can say that selection is a no brainer)

All differing opinions are not always attributable to fandom

 

[4everchan]

All differing opinions are not always attributable to fandom

Of course not. However, the fans are very vocal and easily identifiable. So, even when they offer the most informed and impartial opinions, it may be perceived differently. That's why I mentioned my lack of allegiance to these skaters. However, maybe that makes my opinion perceived differently as well

 

[Tavi...]

Of course not. However, the fans are very vocal and easily identifiable. So, even when they offer the most informed and impartial opinions, it may be perceived differently. That's why I mentioned my lack of allegiance to these skaters. However, maybe that makes my opinion perceived differently as well

I know what you mean all too well! Despite my Jason fandom I try very hard to be rational about stuff so I find it really disturbing and unpleasant when I’m accused (as I have been at least once) of bias and secretly hoping another skater will fail or that some situation I’m discussing hypothetically will result in a benefit to Jason. I don’t think like that! But apparently it’s hard for some people to believe that, for whatever reason.

 

[CanadianSkaterGuy]

I think it’s a new season and Vincent has showed up this season with very strong competitions (even his silver). He’s just so confident and has this newfound self-belief. And technically he’s the only one who’s as ambitious as Chen. He really should do the team FS for the confidence boost and easy medal, and low pressure as he will probably place top 3 no matter how he skates given his tech content.

 

[dancelion21]

Who will skate for Russia in the dance event just got really dicey with the Sin/Kats withdrawal from the free dance. Nikita has been injured this whole fall, and it's clear that the injury is pretty bad. There's no way that they can do four programs in the span of two weeks at the Olympics without disaster happening (honestly unclear if they can even do both of the programs at the individual event). Will Russia have StepBuk step up to do both? Will Eteri get her way to have her daughter sub in? This also has pretty big ramifications for the medals, since now, Russia is only ahead of the US in ladies and pairs, while the US will win out in men and dance. SinKats withdrawal puts Russia's "guaranteed gold" in a lot of question.

 

[GoneWithTheWind]

Who will skate for Russia in the dance event just got really dicey with the Sin/Kats withdrawal from the free dance. Nikita has been injured this whole fall, and it's clear that the injury is pretty bad. There's no way that they can do four programs in the span of two weeks at the Olympics without disaster happening (honestly unclear if they can even do both of the programs at the individual event). Will Russia have StepBuk step up to do both? Will Eteri get her way to have her daughter sub in? This also has pretty big ramifications for the medals, since now, Russia is only ahead of the US in ladies and pairs, while the US will win out in men and dance. SinKats withdrawal puts Russia's "guaranteed gold" in a lot of question.

The other possibility, I guess, is that SinKats go for broke in the TE and then pull out of the individual. That would most likely give Russia (and therefore SinKats) the gold. Whereas, in the individual event, the chance of S/K beating P/C to gold looks very remote at this point. The other teams aren't as far removed as they once were either, C/B were very close to beating them in the RD on the GP series, for example.
I highly doubt this scenario would happen, but if SinKats want a fairly likely team gold more than they want to fight for an individual medal, then maybe?

 

[dancelion21]

The other possibility, I guess, is that SinKats go for broke in the TE and then pull out of the individual. That would most likely give Russia (and therefore SinKats) the gold. Whereas, in the individual event, the chance of S/K beating P/C to gold looks very remote at this point. The other teams aren't as far removed as they once were either, C/B were very close to beating them in the RD on the GP series, for example.
I highly doubt this scenario would happen, but if SinKats want a fairly likely team gold more than they want to fight for an individual medal, then maybe?

They could pull a Plushenko. I guess it matters which one they want more. Because if SinKats can show up somewhat healthy for the individual event, they might not have a chance for gold, but they're still medal favorites. So do they want a silver/bronze individual medal or a gold team medal.

 

[Colonel Green]

The other possibility, I guess, is that SinKats go for broke in the TE and then pull out of the individual. That would most likely give Russia (and therefore SinKats) the gold. Whereas, in the individual event, the chance of S/K beating P/C to gold looks very remote at this point. The other teams aren't as far removed as they once were either, C/B were very close to beating them in the RD on the GP series, for example.
I highly doubt this scenario would happen, but if SinKats want a fairly likely team gold more than they want to fight for an individual medal, then maybe?

Nikita already has a team gold, and I suspect Victoria would prefer an individual medal to a team medal, whatever the colour.

 

[mrrice]

After looking at the scores and reading reports about the Russian Men, I feel that Nathan or Vincent would finish ahead of them if they all skate clean. I was surprised to see Mikhail's SP score but, I guess he popped a jump. We'll have to see how things go at Japanese National's as I think the Men's battle will be with them. If Hanyu skates, I could see them placing him in the men's draw for the team event.

 

[dancelion21]

After Russian Nationals
Russia
Men - Misha
Ladies - Kamila (SP), Sasha (FP)
Pairs - M/G (SP), B/K (FP)
Dance - StepBuk

Ladies will be split no matter what so that they don't burn their ladies out and can get a medal sweep. Originally, I would have had Anna doing the free, but after her weak performance at Nationals and the return of Sasha's many quads, I think they'll give it to Sasha. I think Russia will split pairs instead of dance because they have two great choices there, and Moskvina will want both of her teams to do the team event. That leaves dance, where SinKats are definitely too injured to do four programs in two weeks at the Olympics. Getting her daughter the team medal has been Eteri's goal this whole season, but the numbers just don't add up for it to happen. Maybe it could have been the case if B/K had a weaker free skate or if SinKats are doing the rhythm dance, but I think this is what's going to happen.

 

[Allikat]

After Russian Nationals
Russia
Men - Misha
Ladies - Kamila (SP), Sasha (FP)
Pairs - M/G (SP), B/K (FP)
Dance - StepBuk

Ladies will be split no matter what so that they don't burn their ladies out and can get a medal sweep. Originally, I would have had Anna doing the free, but after her weak performance at Nationals and the return of Sasha's many quads, I think they'll give it to Sasha. I think Russia will split pairs instead of dance because they have two great choices there, and Moskvina will want both of her teams to do the team event. That leaves dance, where SinKats are definitely too injured to do four programs in two weeks at the Olympics. Getting her daughter the team medal has been Eteri's goal this whole season, but the numbers just don't add up for it to happen. Maybe it could have been the case if B/K had a weaker free skate or if SinKats are doing the rhythm dance, but I think this is what's going to happen.

Your plan for Russia makes more sense than any other I've seen, or thought of myself. Now if I could just figure out what'd be best for the US...

 

[invisiblespiral]

Your plan for Russia makes more sense than any other I've seen, or thought of myself. Now if I could just figure out what'd be best for the US...

Men: split (Chen chooses what he wants and the other program goes to whoever scores higher between Brown and Zhou). If Chen doesn't do it, Brown gets the SP and Zhou the FS.
Ladies: Liu
Pairs: whoever wins nationals does both
Dance: H/D do the RD and C/B do the FD

Edit: I am now irrationally terrified that I have cursed the men's event at US Nationals by assuming that Chen/Brown/Zhou is the Olympic team and that 2/3 of them will now bomb so badly that only one can be saved by body of work.