Right! remeber when Emily Hughes beat Mao Asada in the SP at Skate Canada? Anything is possible, and Bebe shoudl get very good chreography and transition marks. Her spirals and spins should get huge GOE scores.
Hughes beat Asada by 0.64 because Mao underrotated the 3L in her combo, incurring a 2.4 deduction, and also got a 1.6 deduction for her flutz. But Mao outscored Emily in the FS 119.58 to 103.70, because Emily doubled the only lutz in her FS and underrotated the final 2L in her 3-jump combo.
As for BeBe's 'huge GOE' scores, she didn't even get huge GOE scores in her Nationals FS, let alone from ISU judges. Her layback spin was only L2 and got +0.43 GOE. Her other spins were L4, but got just +0.71, +0.43 and +0.50. Total +GOE from spins amounts to just 2.07 points above base value for all 4 spins.
In her two GP events, the tech team was less generous with spin levels than the USFS tech team, and the judges less generous with the GOE. At her later event in Russia, her spins were rated L4 (+0.40), L3 (+0.40), L4 (+0.50) and L3 (+0.30) for a total of 1.6 points above base value for all 4 spins. The spins at CoC were rated L2 and L3, and got even lower GOE (a total of 1.10 points for all 4 spins.
As for getting high CH and TR, here were her PCS scores from her two GP LPs (CH and IN scores are bolded):
42.24 5.50 5.10 5.10
5.35 5.35 CoC FS
45.60 5.90 5.55 5.75
5.70 5.60 CoR FS
Compare those to her Nationals PCS scores:
56.39 53.38 6.86 6.36 6.71 6.71 6.71 Nationals FS
Another problem is that at CoC and Nationals, she got flutz deductions in her FS. She also got dinged for underrotation on the 3Z and 3F at CoC, and on the 3Z and 3T at CoR.
What is more worrisome than the FS, though, is the SP. BeBe did not come close to skating a clean SP at either of her GP events, and she did the same at Nationals.
At CoC, she doubled her solo flip and scored 46.44 with these PCS scores:
21.64 5.55 5.20 5.35 5.50 5.45
Her non-jump elements got a total GOE of +1.70
At CoR, she fell on the lutz and then did only 3F+1T and scored 46.40 with these PCS scores:
20.20 5.25 4.80 4.95 5.15 5.10
Her non-jump elements got a total GOE of +2.60
At Nationals, she popped the lutz and as a result had no combo. She scored 55.10 with these PCS scores:
25.15 6.32 6.00 6.29 6.46 6.36
Her non-jump elements got a total GOE of 4.07
At Worlds, if BeBe pops her combo, she will not get a generous mid-50s score such as she got at Nationals, because her PCS scores will be 5 points lower, and she won't get the generous +GOE she got at Nationals. A similar mistake and she will wind up with a total SP score in the mid-to-upper 40s, which means she will be perilously close to the cutoff point for making it into the FS (last year, the cutoff was 44.91), and she is likely to be in the first or second group to skate in the FS.
In the first two groups, PCS scores are held down, which means if BeBe has a FS similar to her Nationals FS (her mistakes were a popped loop and solo flip), she probably will get a score closer to 95 than to the 109.77 she got at Nationals. Her PCS scores will be closer to 45 than to 56, and she will not get the generous GOE she got at Nationals (in her GP events, she got -GOE on most of her FS jumps, and the few that weren't minus got +0.20).
So a total 141-146 for the entire event (46-49 SP plus 95-97 FS) would place BeBe 15th to 17th, about where Alissa Czisny finished last year. And that is assuming she doesn't get two dings in the FS for flutzing and there are no underrotations.
I wish BeBe would skate her heart out and have a good placement. But she is, unfortunately, rather consistent in her inconsistency. She can't seem to skate a clean SP, and in the FS she fairly consistently falls or pops jumps.
So I'm hoping for the best, but expecting the usual from BeBe.
