Just some Bebe ramblings...

[Lumi]

Talking about Kiira Korpi and Laura Lepistö...

I have douped Laura for a long time because of her lack of lutz and flip, but she has proven herself. She has beaten Kiira every time they have competed against each other this season. She also beat Kiira at last years Nationals taking the silver medal. Really interesting to see how they will do at Worlds...

I hope Finland can keep 2 spots, but I have zero believe...

 

[Tinymavy15]

Will be in the top 10:
Yu-Na Kim
Mao Asada
Miki Ando
Carolina Kostner

Should be in the top 10:
Sarah Meier
Yukari Nakano
Kimmie Meissner
Joannie Rochette

Could be in the top 10:
Ashley Wagner
Kiira Korpi
Julia Sebestyen

I don't see BeBe Liang beating any of these skaters, not even the "could be"s. Ashley Wagner beat BeBe soundly at Nationals. Korpi beat her at CoR by nearly 20 points; Sebestyen beat her at both CoC and CoR.

I could easily see Bebe beating Kiira Korpi and she beat Kimmie at Nationals.

 

[chuckm]

Doesn't the flutz have to get noticed by the Tech Panelists?

I think Ashley, if she does flutz has been getting away with it, as do many skaters.

However, it is not, I believe, a full point off the Total Score at the end of the competition as is a Fall. I believe it does not affect the base score of the actual jump that much. I do believe it should be a major error in the Skating Ability component. But I doubt that happens.

Joe

Joe, the flutz has caused Ashley to lose major points.

At SC, the 3Z+3L< e in the SP got her a -GOE of -2.60, of which probably 1.2 was for the flutz. In the FS, she got - 2.00 GOE for the 3Z+2L and -1.8 GOE for the solo 3Z. When you add all those deductions up, she lost 5 points just for flutzing.

Here's how it added up at Skate Canada:
SP: Base value 3Z+2L is 7.50. With -1.2 off for the flutz and -1.4 off for the underrotated 3L, she got only 4.90 points.
FS: Base value 3Z+2L is 7.50. With -2.00 off for the flutz she got only 5.5 points. Base value 3Z is 6.60 (with bonus in 2nd half). With 1.80 off for the flutz, she got only 4.80 points.


At TEB, in the SP she got -1.20 GOE for the 3Z+2L. In the FS, she got -1.40 GOE for the 3Z+2L and -1.40 GOE for the solo 3Z. All tolled, she was gigged 4 points for flutzing at TEB.

4 or 5 points can be the difference between finishing in the top 10 and finishing 11th to 15th.

 

[chuckm]

Talking about Kiira Korpi and Laura Lepistö...

I have douped Laura for a long time because of her lack of lutz and flip, but she has proven herself. She has beaten Kiira every time they have competed against each other this season. She also beat Kiira at last years Nationals taking the silver medal. Really interesting to see how they will do at Worlds...

I hope Finland can keep 2 spots, but I have zero believe...

Their scores at Euros would have placed them 7th and 8th at 2007 Worlds. However, the scores at the Regional ISU Championships (Euros and 4CC) tend to be higher than the scores for the same skaters at Worlds.

 

[Joesitz (RIP)]

chuckm - Will the flutz affect Mao's scores?

My great question is never answered; Is it better to flutz and get some credit than not to do a 7th jump pass?

Joe

 

[chuckm]

Mao has more of a dilemma than most because she only has 4 types of jumps: axel, loop, flip and lutz. She has yet to land a clean 3A this season, so that jump can be hazardous to her score if she doesn't rotate it completely, and there is a limit of 3 on 2As. That leaves her with loop, flip and lutz, and she can only do a max of two triples of loop and flip. She's pretty much stuck with the lutz and the edge deduction. With so slim a point margin between Mao and Yu-Na Kim, the flutz deduction is bad for Mao. Even with the minimum -1.00 GOE on each of her three lutzes, she loses 3 points to Yu-Na, who neither flutzes nor lips, and Mao can't afford any other mistakes such as two-footing or stepping out of a jump. That just ups the pressure on Mao, and that can affect her performance negatively.

 

[evenstar]

Well actually Mao landed an almost clean 3F-3T combination at the Grand Prix Final, as well as a triple axel with a slight two-foot. I think she can do quite well even with mistakes, at Skate Canada she got close to 120 with a downgrade on her triple loop as well as having negative GOE on her flutz. That's a really good score, and most of the ladies today would have difficulty beating Mao even on a sub-par day. To be honest, I think only Yu-Na and Miki have a chance of beating her unless Mao REALLY bombs and/or somebody else skates exceptionally well.

 

[Mathman]

My great question is never answered; Is it better to flutz and get some credit than not to do a 7th jump pass?

It is better to flutz and get some credit than not to do a 7th jumping pass. Something is better than nothing.

But that is not the choice. The choice is to flutz and get some credit, or to do a different jump in your seventh pass, like a double Axel, and get credit for that.

No skater would skip a jumping pass altogether (except Johnny Weir).

 

[chuckm]

Well actually Mao landed an almost clean 3F-3T combination at the Grand Prix Final, as well as a triple axel with a slight two-foot. I think she can do quite well even with mistakes, at Skate Canada she got close to 120 with a downgrade on her triple loop as well as having negative GOE on her flutz. That's a really good score, and most of the ladies today would have difficulty beating Mao even on a sub-par day. To be honest, I think only Yu-Na and Miki have a chance of beating her unless Mao REALLY bombs and/or somebody else skates exceptionally well.

The problem is Yu-Na and/or Miki can beat Mao, and the points off here and there for flutzing and URs can help them do it. Mao knows that, and it must be incredibly frustrating for her. Almost clean isn't good enough if your competitors are landing clean jumps, and they don't flutz or lip.

 

[kandidy]

Now , now back to Babe's discussion again^^ please..

 

[Joesitz (RIP)]

Now , now back to Babe's discussion again^^ please..

Of the proposed top 11 skaters to win over Bebe, many of them are as consistent as she is, meaning she is in a group of iffy skaters, and I think she just might make top 10 or better.

Joe

 

[museksk8r]

Will be in the top 10:
Yu-Na Kim
Mao Asada
Miki Ando
Carolina Kostner

Should be in the top 10:
Sarah Meier
Yukari Nakano
Kimmie Meissner
Joannie Rochette

Could be in the top 10:
Ashley Wagner
Kiira Korpi
Julia Sebestyen

I don't see BeBe Liang beating any of these skaters, not even the "could be"s. Ashley Wagner beat BeBe soundly at Nationals. Korpi beat her at CoR by nearly 20 points; Sebestyen beat her at both CoC and CoR.

Mira Leung I believe is capable of beating Julia Sebestyen, Kiira Korpi, and Bebe Liang. Carolina Kostner is no more consistent than Joannie Rochette, Yukari Nakano, or Sarah Meier. Kostner has been having consistent problems with flubbing the landings on her 3Lutz and popping the 2Axel this season. Sarah Meier beat her in the LP at Europeans and Joannie Rochette, Yukari Nakano, and Sarah Meier all outscored her in points in the Grand Prix Series. Carolina's SPs are usually her saving grace, but her LPs tend to be mine fields. I'd love to see what would happen among all these ladies if they all skate the way they are capable of and all score personal bests. That would be so great to see!

I could see this happen:

1. Yu-Na Kim
2. Mao Asada
3. Miki Ando
4. Joannie Rochette
5. Carolina Kostner
6. Yukari Nakano
7. Ashley Wagner
8. Sarah Meier
9. Kimmie Meissner
10. Mira Leung
11. Kiira Korpi
12. Laura Lepisto
13. Julia Sebestyen
14. Beatrisa Liang
15. Valentina Marchei

 

[chuckm]

1. Yu-Na Kim
2. Mao Asada
3. Miki Ando
4. Joannie Rochette - Sure, if she had a clean SP and FS. That has never happened because Rochette is the epitome of inconsistency. She doesn't get PCS scores in the 7s, and that will keep her farther from the podium than this. Here's what she got for her best FS this season (CoR) and her not-so-good FS (SC):

54.64 6.95 6.50 6.95 6.80 6.95 Rochette PCS, CoR
52.72 6.65 6.20 6.60 6.65 6.85 Rochette PCS, SC

I see Rochette somewhere in the 5 to 7 range---if she doesn't bomb in her SP. If she does, she'll be 9th or 10th.

5. Carolina Kostner - Kostner is never perfect, but she does have a 3/3 and the judges (who are mostly European) have a lot of respect for her. PCS scores for her GPF and Euro FSs, both of which were far from perfect:

58.72 7.55 6.85 7.50 7.45 7.35 Kostner GPF FS
56.98 7.36 6.75 7.18 7.14 7.18 Kostner Euros FS

Carolina should place anywhere from 4th to 7th.

6. Yukari Nakano - Unlike Kostner and Rochette, Nakano has been extremely consistent this season, and her scores have gone up about 6 points overall since last season. She's been top 6 for the past two seasons, and I think she could do as well as 5th or even 4th this year.

7. Ashley Wagner - Like Nakano, she is very consistent, but her placement depends on how much -GOE her flutz gets, and if she tries 3/3s and gets UR calls. She could place anywhere from 6th to 10th.

8. Sarah Meier - Depends on performance. Her Euros performance was much better than those in her GP events. She's managed to place in the top 8 the last two seasons; I see her anywhere from 6th to 9th.

9. Kimmie Meissner - she could be anywhere from 4th to 12th, depending on how her sessions with Callaghan help her skating.

10. Mira Leung - with PCS scores still in the mid 5s, 12th to 14th is probably the best she's going to do. She consistently underrotates her 2A and she was gigged in her GPs for other URs as well.

44.72 5.75 5.40 5.55 5.75 5.50 Leung, SA FS
44.72 5.85 5.35 5.60 5.55 5.60 Leung, TEB FS


11. Kiira Korpi - Was much improved at Euros; she seems to have overcome her illness of earlier this year. The European judges love her and give her good PCS scores, on a par with Rochette.

53.59 6.89 6.43 6.71 6.71 6.75 Korpi, Euros FS

If she skates reasonably well, I see her placing in the top 10 and definitely higher than Leung.

12. Laura Lepisto - Has limited jumps, but she does the jumps she can do quite well, and gets good PCS scores from the judges.

53.48 6.82 6.39 6.79 6.68 6.75 Lepisto, Euros FS

Could finish higher than 12th, and higher than Leung.

13. Julia Sebestyen - the judges still like her and give her good PCS scores.

53.84 6.93 6.43 6.86 6.64 6.79 Sebestyen, Euros FS

With a decent skate, she could place 8th-10th. With doubles and pops, 10th-12th, but ahead of Leung

14. Beatrisa Liang - Depends on how many jumps she pops or falls on. I think 14th is probably an accurate placement for her.

15. Valentina Marchei - has improved greatly since her GP events. She scored 153 and change at Euros, about 9 points higher than Leung's best performance at TEB. Marchei finished 11th at 2007 Worlds, and IMO the judges see her as on the way up. I think she has a shot at the bottom of the top 10. She should easily place ahead of Leung.

 

[Tinymavy15]

Well Okay, she might not place where we would like, but it will be Bebe's first trip to senior nationals and I hope she has the time of her life!

 

[Kypma]

Well Okay, she might not place where we would like, but it will be Bebe's first trip to senior nationals and I hope she has the time of her life!

Senior Worlds, Tinymavy... she's been at Senior Nationals quite a few times already I wish for her to skate her best and be able to come off the ice saying "I'm proud of what I did"... that would be the first step in her first Worlds

Kypma

 

[Pikachuusb]

I am excited for Bebe and hope she has the skate of her life!! I just adore her and hope she has fun. Im not looking for her to give the US 3 spots, but I hope she does well and has a great experience.

Gooooo Bebe!!!!

 

[Linny]

Overdue

Yes - a trip to Worlds is overdue for Bebe and I hope she has a great skate.
Linny

 

[skatergirl45]

Completely agree.
Bebe should just be excited she made the world team in what may be her only chance after the 3 young ones become eligible next year........

 

[luckyguy]

Just thinking.... if Bebe has a clean SP, and a similar LP that she had at Nats, she coudl easyily make Top 10.

Would you repeat this opinion after 11th place at 4CC?

 

[chuckm]

BeBe's FS at 4CC was exactly the kind of performance she had in her GP events, and it looks as if that's what we're going to see at Worlds.

Her 4CC score is worth about a 15th-17th place at Worlds---and that's if she doesn't pop a jump in the SP. If she does, she could place in the 20s.

I just hope Kimmie is back in shape after her sessions in Florida with Callaghan, because BeBe is a major liability on the World team.