2025 WTT: Thoughts? | Page 4 | Golden Skate

2025 WTT: Thoughts?

Well it's over WTT and the skating season. It has been or felt like a long one. WTT was kind of a bit blah save for Liu and Malinin showing their joy and dominance. USA looked really good especiallly Jason outperforming or rather everyone else under performing. the Japanese singles skaters all were a bit underwhelming. Georgia with Gubanova and ice dance had some good moments for them. Italy and France were okay but the French and Ittalian boys were rather blah. Ice dancing even with a RD twizzel issue the judges love Chock and Bages. Good on Georgia beating France in the FD. Canada overall was not good. Singles all of them did poorly and did no do better thanhoped. Yes, Aleks and Sarah are newer but they obviosly would not have been picked but ffor Canada is not sttrong in singles. In fact the only team that really reached its goal was Piper and Paul. Deanna and Max keep falling down the ladder and are in a slump. I am not sure whatt is going on with Canada as this is the second olyumpic season and things are not looking good at all. I read somewhere the hugge salary the performance director or whatever his title is (Michael Sllipchuk) makes and that perhaps his salary should be reduced with the money going into sending Canadians o competitions. i agree. I have also heard people say he should be fired. Otherrs say he is making do with what Canada has. Not much. But this is two quadrenniels. I f he were a coach he would be out of there. Whatever the issue is Canada needs something. Roman especially has looked to have great skating skills whichi honestly at WTT he could be second in pcs but he has to get the tech and skate consistently. Madi has skated through an entire quadrenniel and then some and still can't make top ten. On the other hand Liu shows such confidence, joy when she skates and it is so infectious. Sure some of her jumps seem questionable and Kaori maybe ab bit m refined. But that energy; that joy - bottle it and sell it. Amber kind oflost the momentum. She seem a bit sanguine or melancholy? Jason is resilient and will not go away. No quad but beauifful skaing and when everyone else was tired and messing up he came through and had wonderful results here probably saving or reigniting him as the clear no. 2 US man with Andrew's fall from grace at worlds. It is oo early but will they allow Jason Brown to compete at the Olympic team event - maybe as he would be the top skater in the freeskate on these results (remember Ilia won't compete if they go with Brown). So far Jason has been like teflon. I thought Andrew, Camden Max,Jimmy et al might pass Jason. But kind of llike Katarina witt if she falls the others will fall twice. Such an amazing competitor is jason. Ilia really just is the king. His tech is so amazing.
Chock and Bates did their perfunctory great skating - just not overly excellent. I still don't see why they get scores so muuch ahead of Piper and Paul other than P squared seemed to be hat team 2nd or 4th just off or just missing the oly team. CB have OGM but Piper and Paul I could see the judges tossing them side for the Italians, Brits and or the new French team. I am a bit cconcerned abbout Amber here. I wonder how she feels from world champion threat to kind of pushed aside like yesterday's dinner.. She did so well at WTT and still could not beat the world champ Liu. USA looks unbeatable for the team event at the Olympics.
It appears Amber has to land her triple axles in both programs to beat Liu clean. It's not fair, but that's the way it is now. Politics within countries are just as important as politics between countries and the ISU. At least it's not quite as bad as it in Japan. No Japanese is beating Kaori clean, even with 3As in both, with the possible exception of Chiba hitting both (she doesn't even have one yet), and then only maybe.
 
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It appears Amber has to land her triple axles in both programs to beat Liu clean.
Yes, that is the exact truth. In fact, more generally, Amber has to land her triple Axel in both programs to guarantee the win in any competition against other top skaters. If she goes 1 for 2, she has a chance to win anyway. 0 for 2 with others skating reasonably cleanly, no chance.

It's not about Alysa or any other competitor, it's about adding up points. 16 points for two triple Axels. Others will get a few points back for superior skills in other areas, PCSs, etc. Quite an easy calculation to make, actually, in my opinion.
 
Yes, that is the exact truth. In fact, more generally, Amber has to land her triple Axel in both programs to guarantee the win in any competition against other top skaters. If she goes 1 for 2, she has a chance to win anyway. 0 for 2 with others skating reasonably cleanly, no chance.

It's not about Alysa or any other competitor, it's about adding up points. 16 points for two triple Axels. Others will get a few points back for superior skills in other areas, PCSs, etc. Quite an easy calculation to make, actually, in my opinion.
Actually the two 3As give about 11 extra points, possibly 12 at most. I was just comparing those 2 because they are the top 2 Americans at the moment. Im not saying Amber is that great or anything. Im just saying that if Amber lands her 3A in the SP, but then only does a 2A in the FS and they are both completely clean otherwise, Alysa wins right now, in my opinion. I don't think Alysa is that superior in the other aspects to warrant that. The same goes for Kaori against other Japanese.
 
Actually, it is OK. Japan is willing to host the event and can do better than anyone else to fill up the arena. So... He who pays the piper (not to mention the Paul), yeah, calls the tune. :)
oh lord.. that pun is out of my league ;)

i am pretty sure, considering how full the arenas were at both recent north american worlds that there is room for such competitions outside of japan... but it will never happen :) the reason is TV rights.. not the crowds.
 
Actually the two 3As give about 11 extra points, possibly 12 at most. I was just comparing those 2 because they are the top 2 Americans at the moment. Im not saying Amber is that great or anything. Im just saying that if Amber lands her 3A in the SP, but then only does a 2A in the FS and they are both completely clean otherwise, Alysa wins right now, in my opinion. I don't think Alysa is that superior in the other aspects to warrant that. The same goes for Kaori against other Japanese.
The problem is Amber has a habit of making silly mistakes like doubling jumps which gives back points. Alysa's consistency puts pressure on Amber to not make those mental mistakes that she's known for sometimes. Alysa was pretty consistent for most of the season but her lack of fitness and stamina was what was keeping her off podiums but she got stronger as the season went on and so did her jumps.
 
Actually the two 3As give about 11 extra points, possibly 12.

Exactly, If Amber does a 3A (8.0 points) and someone else does a 2A (3.3 points), everything else being equal. well, there's the base value math.

Is everything else equal? There are many factors, of course. But for instance if we take PCSs, judging panels seem to be pretty consistent across competitions. (I didn't research this, just going by observations and impressions.)

Amber typically gets 8.25-8.50 on composition, presentation, and skating skills, which I think is about right. Liu gets 8.75-9.00. No complaint there. Sakamoto, 9.25-9.50. All get a little less if there are technical mistakes, a little more if they are more-or-less clean.

Amber has to win on tech, which for her means two triple Axels. With one satisfactory triple Axel (base value 8,0, plus GOE} and one failed attempt (say 3A< with a fall = 2.20 points) -- well, her tech lead has been cut in half which allows others to pass her. No, the others are not THAT superior, just a coup[le of points here, a coupe pf points there, which is all that is required.
 
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I believe (believe, so maybe wrong) that only the gold medalists and the home team are asked to do exhibitions.

I don’t remember what they did the year that Japan won gold.

... So that is why I said I don't know if another team was invited when Team Japan won gold, or they just stuck with Team Japan as both.

Team Japan has won WTT twice.
In both of those years, the exhibition included a group number from the team that placed second: Team USA in 2012, and Team Russia in 2017.
As well as Team Japan's group performance, of course.
For a total of two exhibition slots for teams each year, per usual.


 
It went about how I expected, but I wasn't expecting much. I watched most of the performances on X, since I couldn't watch live anyway - too late for my blood. A blessing in disguise, since I saw the skating (which interests me) and didn't have to suffer the team spirit hijinks (which does not interest me at all).

A placement here or there were thought provoking, but nothing groundbreaking. Mostly...

The Japanese men were worse than others were worse relative to their seasons.

Jason and Alysa showed a continued spurt of consistency - following up on their excellent performances at Worlds. Does that continue into next season? Time will tell.
 
Exactly, If Amber does a 3A (8.0 points) and someone else does a 2A (3.3 points), everything else being equal. well, there's the base value math.

Is everything else equal? There are many factors, of course. But for instance if we take PCSs, judging panels seem to be pretty consistent across competitions. (I didn't research this, just going by observations and impressions.)

Amber typically gets 8.25-8.50 on composition, presentation, and skating skills, which I think is about right. Liu gets 8.75-9.00. No complaint there. Sakamoto, 9.25-9.50. All get a little less if there are technical mistakes, a little more if they are more-or-less clean.

Amber has to win on tech, which for her means two triple Axels. With one satisfactory triple Axel (base value 8,0, plus GOE} and one failed attempt (say 3A< with a fall = 2.20 points) -- well, her tech lead has been cut in half which allows others to pass her. No, the others are not THAT superior, just a coup[le of points here, a coupe pf points there, which is all that is required.
Actually if you look at Alysa's record in the 2 GPs and 4 continents her PCS scores were all mid 7s to very low 8s. I don't have any complaint there. I specifically had in my example Amber not having a worst case scenario of a fall with under rotation. A pop to a 2A, a fall with a q, or a fully rotated fall would at least equal or exceed a 2A. Regardless, Alysa with those 7 and 8s she usually gets should not be able to make up the difference from the successful 3A in the other program.
 
The problem is Amber has a habit of making silly mistakes like doubling jumps which gives back points. Alysa's consistency puts pressure on Amber to not make those mental mistakes that she's known for sometimes. Alysa was pretty consistent for most of the season but her lack of fitness and stamina was what was keeping her off podiums but she got stronger as the season went on and so did her jumps.
Except that the whole point was not denying that Amber is mistake prone.She is. It was that the way they were scored, even if she is clean she needs both 3As to beat Alysa, which is not the way ot should be.
 
Actually if you look at Alysa's record in the 2 GPs and 4 continents her PCS scores were all mid 7s to very low 8s. I don't have any complaint there.
She skated better and better as the season progressed. Her PCSs rose accordingly. Skate Canada LP 60.67, NHK 64.27, Four Continents 65.97, Worlds 70.12. Plus, her Words performance was cleaner than the earlier three (and electrifying) while the others had numerous small errors. No complaints. None at all.
 
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She skated better and better as the season went along. Her PCSs rose accordingly. Skate Canada LP 60.67, NHK 64.27, Four Continents 65.97, Worlds 70.12. Plus her Words performance was cleaner than the earlier three (and electrifying) while the other three had numerous small errors. No complaints. None at all.
No, you obviously don't understand.

Skaters do not improve their programs over the season, or even between seasons. Whatever their PCS is the first time they step on the ice, then it's supposed to be set in concrete, never wavering one iota.

One program may be a stumbling mess, and the next may induce a frenzied standing ovation. It does not matter. The PCS may not vary, and if it does, then it's a sure sign the system is rigged.
 
She skated better and better as the season progressed. Her PCSs rose accordingly. Skate Canada LP 60.67, NHK 64.27, Four Continents 65.97, Worlds 70.12. Plus, her Words performance was cleaner than the earlier three (and electrifying) while the others had numerous small errors. No complaints. None at all.
I thought your initial theory was based on the fact that judging panels are pretty consistent on PCS from competition to competition? That actually is fairly correct. But as you say, she was cleaner this time by eliminating those small errors. True. Unfortunately small errors like q, URs and pops that don't disrupt the flow of the program, and edge calls are all deducted from TES, not PCS. At least they are not supposed to be. Now if you want to say that when you skate clean and get no deductions, that the judges sometimes go along and inflate everything else, I won't argue there. After all, we saw it with Amber and her 3A all season, and with Sakamoto for years now. This also includes inflated GOE, btw. Im just saying that they shouldn't do that, not they don't.
 
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No, you obviously don't understand.

Skaters do not improve their programs over the season, or even between seasons. Whatever their PCS is the first time they step on the ice, then it's supposed to be set in concrete, never wavering one iota.

One program may be a stumbling mess, and the next may induce a frenzied standing ovation. It does not matter. The PCS may not vary, and if it does, then it's a sure sign the system is rigged.
True for composition and skating skills, but the score for performance should obviously change based on the performance...
 
She could. It was reported that she was seen practicing it at Worlds -- maybe just to scare everyone. :)

Amber landed her first triple Axel just a few days before her 24th birthday (finishing fifth at Skate America 2023.), Mirai Nagasu was also 24. Alysa? 12.
I would say she doesn't need it, so she can try it in practice, but don't put too much effort into it. The judges have just told her to just keep doing what you're doing. Do the Sakamoto strategy, stay clean and let the others get out of their comfort zones and make mistakes.
 
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