Philip Hersh on numbers and pressure for Petrosian at Olympics

[gsk8]

By the numbers, Russia's Petrosian looks golden at 2026 Olympics. Will pressure and her coach's past factor in? — Globetrotting by Philip Hersh

Figure skating has become more and more of a math exercise since the sport began using its new scoring and judging system in the 2004-05 season. If it were only a numbers game, you could securely place a bet on 17-year-old Russian Adeliia Petrosian becoming Olympic women’s singles champion next Feb

www.globetrottingbyphiliphersh.com

 

[gmyers]

I really do believe it will help her deal with pressure that all media is forbidden form talking to her and she is forbidden from talking to all media while she is competing at OQE and Olympics.

Also helping. With no hockey no tv stations even airing Olympics in Russia next year !! IOC not interested in selling to Russia either

 

[Mathman]

Anything can happen, but I have to go with the math. Petrosyan, if clean, cannot be overtaken by any other skater that she will face in Milan. Points are points.

Nor can the ISU, by shady judging, withhold the marks she earns on the ice without looking like imbeciles or crooks.

The ISU has made its bed -- bow they have to lie in it.

 

[el henry]

If competitions were decided by base value, we wouldn't need actual skates: just mail in the BV score and be done with it.

I have seen too many skates go sideways (or right ways) for too many skaters to rely only on that. Particularly at the Olympics.

We will see what we will see.

 

[NanaPat]

The ISU has made its bed -- bow they have to lie in it.

I'd say it's the IOC that made the bed. The ISU has a choice of lying in it or throwing all the bedding and pillows on the floor and looking like a petulant toddler.

 

[TontoK]

Anything can happen, but I have to go with the math. Petrosyan, if clean, cannot be overtaken by any other skater that she will face in Milan. Points are points.

Nor can the ISU, by shady judging, withhold the marks she earns on the ice without looking like imbeciles or crooks.

The ISU has made its bed -- bow they have to lie in it.

If the competition were held today, probably correct. She wins in a rout.

Will that be the case in 9 months or so? We'll have to see. According to this article, she's lost her two most point-getting jumps in the past year. She's just aging out of that stage where these quads/3A's are easier. I hope she can hold on, but I also hope that she's got something else to bring to the table. TBH, I've never watched her skate, so I don't know if she has a style I'd find pleasing.

 

[Minz]

Especially after the chaos that was the last Olympics, I don’t think that there is a clear favorite. Valieva was considered a lock for gold (until she wasn’t) and Adeliia is nowhere near that level of dominance, and there are many skaters who could very well take that title without things ending in a disaster. I do think Adeliia is one of the front runners but I definitely don’t think she’s a lock for gold.

 

[gmyers]

If the competition were held today, probably correct. She wins in a rout.

Will that be the case in 9 months or so? We'll have to see. According to this article, she's lost her two most point-getting jumps in the past year. She's just aging out of that stage where these quads/3A's are easier. I hope she can hold on, but I also hope that she's got something else to bring to the table. TBH, I've never watched her skate, so I don't know if she has a style I'd find pleasing.

She chose not to do them sloppily. That’s different

 

[Mathman]

Anything can happen, sure.

But the "front-runner on paper" does have one advantage that the other cpmpetitprs don't. She can win "just" by delivering the program that she trained. The others have to deliver their own program AND hope that the front-runner falters.

 

[Mathman]

I hope she can hold on, but I also hope that she's got something else to bring to the table. TBH, I've never watched her skate, so I don't know if she has a style I'd find pleasing.

My impression is that when she hits all her jumps, she does not have any weaknesses. Her skating skills are fine, good speed, spins are fine, choreography and presentation -- I don't think she gives away any points there.

She has had some performances over the last year where she where she leaves the door open tby missing a jump here and there, but she remains competitive even when she doesn't completely maximize her intended TES. As for style, different strokes for different folks, but there is nothing for fans -- or judges -- to complain about that I can see.

 

[TontoK]

She chose not to do them sloppily. That’s different

OK. I'll go with your point of view, in part because we'd be splitting hairs to argue.

In any case, they weren't included in her programs, and thus her existing TES, while certainly formidable, isn't quite as overwhelming as it was before. Unless, of course, she can tidy those up and add them back... but really, two 3A and two 4T across two programs is enough if she hits.

And as @Mathman pointed out above, all she has to do is deliver the programs she's trained. Everyone else has to hit their programs and hope for mistakes from her, and perhaps others. I'd call her a solid favorite this far out.

But man alive, are there a lot of "ifs" here. If she can maintain her strength as she matures, if she can avoid injury, if others don't suddenly add content, if she can manage the pressure... if, if, if... And, a lot of those "ifs" apply to any skater, not just her.

 

[Arigato]

"Petrosian has won two straight national titles and is unbeaten over the past two seasons, winning eight straight domestic events."

And Junhwan Cha has won 9 national titles including 2025. Hells bells, he's going to win OLYG gold with all them thar past titles, Phil.

 

[TallyT]

The main problem, I suspect, will be pressure. Between being the only Russian woman there and the clear expectation - even countrywide demand - that she will 'justify' by sweeping all before her... the pressure on her will make everything the previous Tut girls were under like a gentle spring shower on a tea party.

And she will have a whole one (the qualifier) international competition to find out what it's like to compete as a senior on the world stage.

And as Nathan Chen, Yulia Lipnitskaya and even Kurt Browning can tell her... the Olympics are a whole 'nother world stage again.

 

[TontoK]

<snip>

And as Nathan Chen, Yulia Lipnitskaya and even Kurt Browning can tell her... the Olympics are a whole 'nother world stage again.

As I read the article, I was thinking of all the Olympic favorites who didn't take the title. Of course, a lot of favorites DID win. Still, I think it's a bit early to start predicting. A lot can happen in a short time span. A year ago, I was side-eying Alisa Liu's return to the ice.

 

[gmyers]

The main problem, I suspect, will be pressure. Between being the only Russian woman there and the clear expectation - even countrywide demand - that she will 'justify' by sweeping all before her... the pressure on her will make everything the previous Tut girls were under like a gentle spring shower on a tea party.

And she will have a whole one (the qualifier) international competition to find out what it's like to compete as a senior on the world stage.

And as Nathan Chen, Yulia Lipnitskaya and even Kurt Browning can tell her... the Olympics are a whole 'nother world stage again.

when skaters fall apart because of pressure why does that happen? Every person is different. Maybe for some it is all internal pressure. Maybe for some it is external. Because Russian tv looks like it won’t even be airing the olynpics live that means to me Petrosian will know barely anyone will even be watching! Legally I don’t know about illegally.

I don’t agree with predicting Petrosian will fall apart due to pressure from Russia. Russia as of right now won’t be watching

OK. I'll go with your point of view, in part because we'd be splitting hairs to argue.

In any case, they weren't included in her programs, and thus her existing TES, while certainly formidable, isn't quite as overwhelming as it was before. Unless, of course, she can tidy those up and add them back... but really, two 3A and two 4T across two programs is enough if she hits.

And as @Mathman pointed out above, all she has to do is deliver the programs she's trained. Everyone else has to hit their programs and hope for mistakes from her, and perhaps others. I'd call her a solid favorite this far out.

But man alive, are there a lot of "ifs" here. If she can maintain her strength as she matures, if she can avoid injury, if others don't suddenly add content, if she can manage the pressure... if, if, if... And, a lot of those "ifs" apply to any skater, not just her.

Yes ifs do apply to every skater equally!

 

[Tutto]

One thing is certain - nothing is certain especially at the Olympics and that's what makes sport so attractive, I would even say addictive!
My humble opinion is still the same - if Adelia skates clean, the task for judges will be a difficult one (if the objective not to let her on the podium) but they will manage fine, e.g quads can easily become << and a honourable 4th place finish achieved no problem whatsoever.

 

[Mathman]

-- If Adelia skates clean, the task for judges will be a difficult one (if the objective not to let her on the podium)....

My predication, Pollyanna that I am, is that the ISU will suck it up and take the high road. If the girl skates the best, she skates the best. If the ISU wanted to exclude her, they had their chance.

I remember back in 1958 (I bet not many GS posters can make this claim ). It was the height of the cold war. Sputnik was orbiting overhead throwing Americans into a panic. Nikita Khrushchev was banging his shoe on the table raging "We will bury you." Moscow, in order to prove its cultural superiority to the West, inaugurated the first Tchaikovsky piano contest. A young American pianist named Van Cliburn entered -- and won!

The judges rushed to Khrushchev -- what shall we do, what shall we do! Khrushchev replied, "Is he the best? Give him the prize."

 

[Mathman]

when skaters fall apart because of pressure why does that happen? Every person is different....

....Yes ifs do apply to every skater equally!

There do, however, seem to be a few athletes who are just natural born "clutch players." The more the pressure builds, the better they perform. Jerry West in basketball, Yogi Berra in baseball. Anna Shcherbakova in skating? Katarina Witt?

 

[Tutto]

My predication, Pollyanna that I am, is that the ISU will suck it up and take the high road. If the girl skates the best, she skates the best. If the ISU wanted to exclude her, they had their chance.

I remember back in 1958 (I bet not many GS posters can make this claim ). It was the height of the cold war. Sputnik was orbiting overhead throwing Americans into a panic. Nikita Khrushchev was banging his shoe on the table raging "We will bury you." Moscow, in order to prove its cultural superiority to the West, inaugurated the first Tchaikovsky piano contest. A young American pianist named Van Cliburn entered -- and won!

The judges rushed to Khrushchev -- what shall we do, what shall we do! Khrushchev replied, "Is he the best? Give him the prize."

Fascinating story

 

[Tutto]

There do, however, seem to be a few athletes who are just natural born "clutch players." The more the pressure builds, the better they perform. Jerry West in basketball, Yogi Berra in baseball. Anna Shcherbakova in skating? Katarina Witt?

Evgenia Medvedeva