Philip Hersh on numbers and pressure for Petrosian at Olympics

[TallyT]

Are you kidding me? She has to fall twice to not make the final flight. She’s not Kim - she’s the poster child of a federation banking on her to be the beacon of Russia’s Olympic prowess. They will do whatever to make sure she succeeds.

Valieva, a relative newbie on the Senior circuit, royally **** the bed at the Olympics and still got 70 PCS. Think about that.

Adelina - oop sorry, I meant Adelia - is getting overscored regardless of how she skates.

Petrosian and her Fed's influence are up again Liu et al and their Fed's influence. Both Freds will do 'whatever it takes' and with any luck (for the sport) cancel each other out so that the actual best woman on the day might win.

 

[Mathman]

Petrosian and her Fed's influence are up again Liu et al and their Fed's influence. Both Freds will do 'whatever it takes...

Meh. As for the U.S., the tail doesn't wag the dog, and as for Russia, one monkey don't stop the show. If Petrosyan lands a triple Axel in the SP and a 3A plus two quad toes in the LP, she will win regatdless of rolling eyes and gnashing teeth at the headquarters of national federations..

If she doesn't, then we'll see.

(That's what I think anyway. )

 

[withwings]

Russian girls never won Olympics in the universe I am building:

2014 podium: Yuna Kim (programs choreographed by me), Ashley Wagner (coached and choreographed by me), Carolina Kostner (Long Program edited by me)

2018 podium: Mao Asada (coached and choreographed by me), Medvedeva (goes to Brian Orser a season earlier after being scored properly in 2017 and failing to make world podium with Eteri, programs choreographed by me), Tutu backloading girl

2022 podium: Karen Chen (coached and choreographed by me, gains Triple Axel), Alena Kostornaia (keeps her 2019-2020 season form), Trusova (remains with Plushenko, doping scheme is revealed to be orchestrated by Eteri the prior year and her skaters are out)

2026 podium (opinion still pending, but this looks fun): Mao Shimada, Amber Glenn, Wakaba Higuchi

Oh, dear Blades of Passion could you, please, be so kind to choreograph also for Loena Hendrickx Olympics 2026 programs?? I know, I know your podium already is busy, full but, at least, could you, please, choregraph for Loena two decent programs? I am ok with a small medal for her SP and/or an excellent skate in general.
P.S.
you have to take into consideration that Loena still is in recovery stage after her surgery and she made her first steps on the ice only few days go; so the programs have to be gentle on her ankle!

 

[Blades of Passion]

I do wish we gave out actual medals for each program! Ideally to me there would be 3 different types of programs to compete. Skaters deserve more medal opportunities and it makes so much more sense from an audience perspective that it's entirely about what happens on a single competition day to determine medals. It's always been awkward when people win competitions with weak Long Programs because of their lead from the Short Program (and previously the figures round, or qualifying round at Worlds). In the team event this isn't as much of an issue because there are so many moving pieces, but for the individual events it would be great to see a change.

 

[withwings]

I do wish we gave out actual medals for each program! Ideally to me there would be 3 different types of programs to compete. Skaters deserve more medal opportunities and it makes so much more sense from an audience perspective that it's entirely about what happens on a single competition day to determine medals. It's always been awkward when people win competitions with weak Long Programs because of their lead from the Short Program (and previously the figures round, or qualifying round at Worlds). In the team event this isn't as much of an issue because there are so many moving pieces, but for the individual events it would be great to see a change.

Deal! more medals for each program!!
Re Lorena, sorry, i already choose a music for her FP program- Edward Grieg Piano Concerto in A minor https://youtu.be/Ozn4C3AmEi0. So, dear, you want or no, you have to agree with my music choice...

With trembling heart waiting a fantastic choreography from you for Loena!!
and then, finally, she will be free of Adam Solya choreography

 

[Blades of Passion]

So you'd like Leona to be an elegant queen this season. Well, if Miki Ando could do it with that music in 2011 (in the eyes of the judges, anyway) then Leona can too!

 

[CanadianSkaterGuy]

Petrosian and her Fed's influence are up again Liu et al and their Fed's influence. Both Freds will do 'whatever it takes' and with any luck (for the sport) cancel each other out so that the actual best woman on the day might win.

US is looking to lock in ice dance, men's and team golds. So they'll probably throw Russia a bone and let them have the women's gold. Liu was a wonderful surprise for them, but they should realize that all the stars aligned for them (including home ice/PCS) and would probably not interfere too much with Russia getting the women's gold.

 

[Skater Boy]

Petrosian and her Fed's influence are up again Liu et al and their Fed's influence. Both Freds will do 'whatever it takes' and with any luck (for the sport) cancel each other out so that the actual best woman on the day might win.

I honestly don't think PEtrosian will necessarily be a huge threat. She has not competed internationally and does not have the competitive experience and USA wants this. They are used to being top dog when it comes to the ladies olympic skating. I believe they have been off the podium come olympics for some time - 2006??? Liu and her compatriotsare ready. Amber is getting stronger too so they have two gold medal threats and another medal shot. Petrosian has not had the opportunity to develop showmanship, artistry and performance quality on the international stage.

 

[Blades of Passion]

Petrosian has not had the opportunity to develop showmanship, artistry and performance quality on the international stage.

As if that matters, the judges have never really used PCS correctly. They'll put her .5 or .75 lower per component than the Sakamoto-tier and it will mean nothing in the end, as long as she hits the Quads. The points from the jumps far outweighs that PCS difference. Only a magical showing of 2 perfect programs with 3A from Amber or Alysa could challenge, if Petrosian doesn't do the 3A herself (it's less consistent than her 4T). There's only like a 1% chance she loses at this point, as long as Eteri's "smelling salts" and duct tape hold her body together just long enough to keep her predictable post-Olympic expiration date at bay.

 

[TallyT]

I honestly don't think PEtrosian will necessarily be a huge threat. She has not competed internationally and does not have the competitive experience and USA wants this. They are used to being top dog when it comes to the ladies olympic skating. I believe they have been off the podium come olympics for some time - 2006??? Liu and her compatriotsare ready. Amber is getting stronger too so they have two gold medal threats and another medal shot. Petrosian has not had the opportunity to develop showmanship, artistry and performance quality on the international stage.

Errr... the same caveat - pressure - I mentioned for Petrosian will apply to Liu (and Amber Glenn, though to a lesser extent, it's already pretty clear that the US media, or at least that part paying any attention, have picked their darling), same measure different but just as oppressive and unsubtle type. Remember I mentioned what it did to Chen - didn't he have to tell the press not to follow him to the bathroom at one stage? or was that just an old skatingwives' tale? Liu has already quit once because of it and while she was younger and less seasoned then, she wasn't in the "win us the OGM or else" position she's now being pushed into - ironically because the previous Tut girls made such expectations impossible.

Okay, Chen was facing Yuzuru Hanyu and Shoma Uno in force (not full because of Yuzu's injury but still way formidable), and Petrosian ain't either of them but then neither are Liu and Glenn. I suggest we watch all three - or more, remember Kaori? - women in this season before we start betting the farm. "Prediction is very difficult, especially about the future." (Neils Bohr)

Me, I'd love it if someone that no one is watching too closely sails in and snitches it from all of 'em

 

[Magill]

Me, I'd love it if someone that no one is watching too closely sails in and snitches it from all of 'em

I'd love it if it was Mone

 

[TallyT]

US is looking to lock in ice dance, men's and team golds. So they'll probably throw Russia a bone and let them have the women's gold. Liu was a wonderful surprise for them, but they should realize that all the stars aligned for them (including home ice/PCS) and would probably not interfere too much with Russia getting the women's gold.

Oh I doubt it would be the women's singles - the one discipline they have any hope of capturing the US public's attention with - that would be the bone.

I'd love it if it was Mone

Me too

 

[gmyers]

Petrosian pcs would really have to be atrocious for any rotated quads and 3As not to matter! I mean really atrocious.

So it is very normal for first skaters at OQE to get 4 and 5 pcs. That’s where Petrosian will skate at the OQE. In the group that will get 4 and 5 pcs. Now she trains in the best rink with the best ice in Russia every day! How can she get 4 or 5?

At the Olympics she will also skate first. First group pcs at Olympics is higher than PCS at OQE! I just checked it was in the sixes.

This means the worst thing for Petrosian may be OQE. Being in that first group and first skater in SP could be a killer! Getting 4’s just because she’s surrounded by 4’s.

 

[Mathman]

US is looking to lock in ice dance, men's and team golds. So they'll probably throw Russia a bone and let them have the women's gold.

See, the United States is generous that way. We let Yuna Kim win the 2010 Olympics. We let Yuzuru Hanyu win twice. We het Ulrich Salchow win ten world championships. We allowed Virtue and Moir to beat Papadakis and Cizeron in 2018. Oh. we're just Santa Claus the way we distribute gifts to everyone.

 

[Blades of Passion]

This means the worst thing for Petrosian may be OQE. Being in that first group and first skater in SP could be a killer! Getting 4’s just because she’s surrounded by 4’s.

She'll average low 8's PCS at worst for a typical skate. Judges will see her, and her alone, landing quads in practice. They aren't going to treat her like some unknown.

 

[macy]

Petrosian pcs would really have to be atrocious for any rotated quads and 3As not to matter! I mean really atrocious.

So it is very normal for first skaters at OQE to get 4 and 5 pcs. That’s where Petrosian will skate at the OQE. In the group that will get 4 and 5 pcs. Now she trains in the best rink with the best ice in Russia every day! How can she get 4 or 5?

At the Olympics she will also skate first. First group pcs at Olympics is higher than PCS at OQE! I just checked it was in the sixes.

This means the worst thing for Petrosian may be OQE. Being in that first group and first skater in SP could be a killer! Getting 4’s just because she’s surrounded by 4’s.

Petrosian getting 4's will not happen in any universe. she is not an unknown, they absolutely know who she is. i could see them no longer giving out the Eteri bonus like candy and even think that is likely, but she wouldn't get 4s even if she bombed. Alysa Liu didn't get 4s skating in early groups this year and she is now world champion.

 

[gmyers]

She'll average low 8's PCS at worst for a typical skate. Judges will see her, and her alone, landing quads in practice. They aren't going to treat her like some unknown.

of course this is possible. I am not saying it it isnt. There are a number of possibilities for the treatment of Petrosian.

Petrosian getting 4's will not happen in any universe. she is not an unknown, they absolutely know who she is. i could see them no longer giving out the Eteri bonus like candy and even think that is likely, but she wouldn't get 4s even if she bombed. Alysa Liu didn't get 4s skating in early groups this year and she is now world champion.

Of course she got good scores! She was world medalist March 2022 and was totally in the skating world September 2024 to March 2025. Petrosian is indeed banned from the skating world October 2025 to February 2026. That’s a big difference. Petrosian being completely banned from the skating world while everyone else is showing the judges their programs and talking to judges and being told how to get higher scores and all that stuff that happens during the Grand Prix season. Liu could work her way up while Petrosian can’t.

 

[Arigato]

Let the judges do their job as they watch each skater and if that's not good enough, maybe some should consider watching a different sport.

 

[Mathman]

I only have one prediction about next season. We will see a triple Axel attempt by Alysa Liu some time before the Olympics. And maybe by Wakaba Higuchi.

 

[CanadianSkaterGuy]

Let the judges do their job as they watch each skater and if that's not good enough, maybe some should consider watching a different sport.

The problem is that in a lot of instances a lot of judges watch each skater and don't judge good enough.

It's definitely hyperbole that she'll get 4's - agree with BoP that at her worst, she'll get low 8's (maybe a couple 7's from the judges whose cheques haven't cleared yet).

All the Eteri/Russian politicking aside, in fairnes to Adelia she IS a good skater, who executes elements at a world class level, has insane difficulty, and she is consistent. There will be a lot of pressure on her, but she's so well trained that any flub in the short program might only cost her the final flight at worst, and she'd need multiple pops and falls to place out of the top 5 overall. If she rotates all her jumps she will likely medal - and we could even be looking at a sloppy OGM given her content is so high that she can afford many mistakes and still win. She may not earn her scores, but I do predict that she'll earn her placement.

I noticed at Worlds 2025 SP https://results.isu.org/results/sea...------QUAL000100--_JudgesDetailsperSkater.pdf Ahsun Yun (who would be "known" having competed in GPs and won Nepela) got in the 4's for her really bad SP....but it's not like Haein and Chayeon weren't there too, so they didn't exactly have to worry about burying her on PCS and potentially upsetting the Korean fed.

I think what would be most interesting is to see if Adelia will maintain her quads/triple axel leading up to and during the Olympics, as she needs them to win. She doesn't run the risk of being fatigued by a team event although the team event is also great at propping up the PCS of skaters for the individual (see Gracie Gold / Lipnitskaia).