So far we've had two events with 19 men competing, a number of them considered remote, possible, likely, and/or certain contenders for the six spots at the Grand Prix Finale, and a couple more who have made themselves new contenders at the events themselves. With things taking a few surprising turns I've decided to make an analysis of everyone's chances:
Skate America top four:
1. Takahito Kozuka-Would need to medal at Trophee Eric Bombard to seal it, might still have a chance by finishing fourth. Will probably come below Brian Joubert unless the latter has more blade/head problems, but could very well win silver-his biggest threat would be Patrick Chan, who he has beaten in the past, and he outscored over by ten points in their first events. Even if he loses to him, so long as he holds off Bradley and Preaubert he's in, and even if he loses to one of them he may still be in.
2. Johnny Weir-His chances are good so long as he medals at NHK, though they would be better if he took silver, and to seal it, he'd need to win. It's not impossible for him to win, but it's going to be very, very hard to beat Takahashi. He has more chance of beating Oda for silver, though I think he'd have to skate clean, preferably with a clean quad. There are a couple of skaters who might beat him if he skates particularly badly, but so long as he skates well, he's on the podium and then it's as the chips fall.
3. Evan Lysacek-Both events done and he has 22 points, which probably won't be enough.
4. Kevin Reynolds-To have a chance he'd need to win NHK, which is extremely unlikely, unless he takes silver and things fall a very certain way, and even silver would be very hard for him in this field.
Skate Canada top four(excluding Evan):
1. Patrick Chan-Needs only to make the podium at Trophee Eric Bombard, where he'll be the favorite for silver, and the only person I can see beating him to it is Kozuka, in which case, barring complete disaster, he's still on the podium and locked.
2. Ryan Bradley-Would need to win Trophee Eric Bombard to seal it, which is extremely unlikely. Might be fine if he won silver, but he'd have to not only beat Chan, but Preaubert and Kozuka. Would have a fighting chance if he beat two of the previous three for the bronze, which could happen. He also could possibly be knocked down to fifth, which would be the absolute end of it. He'll need some very good luck, both in his skating and how the chips fall.
4. Yannick Ponsero-Exact same situation as Reynolds.
Knocked out of the race, but might mix things up at the other events:
Kevin van der Perran-withdrew from Skate America, might displace someone at Cup of Russia
Sergei Voronov-sixth at Skate Canada, but one of the top contenders at Cup of Russia
Contenders yet to compete:
Certain contenders:
Brian Joubert
Daisuke Takahashi
Probable contenders:
Tomas Verner
Possible contenders:
Stephen Carriere
Jeremy Abbott
Alban Preaubert
Or in this season? Possibly anyone with two events!
Skate America top four:
1. Takahito Kozuka-Would need to medal at Trophee Eric Bombard to seal it, might still have a chance by finishing fourth. Will probably come below Brian Joubert unless the latter has more blade/head problems, but could very well win silver-his biggest threat would be Patrick Chan, who he has beaten in the past, and he outscored over by ten points in their first events. Even if he loses to him, so long as he holds off Bradley and Preaubert he's in, and even if he loses to one of them he may still be in.
2. Johnny Weir-His chances are good so long as he medals at NHK, though they would be better if he took silver, and to seal it, he'd need to win. It's not impossible for him to win, but it's going to be very, very hard to beat Takahashi. He has more chance of beating Oda for silver, though I think he'd have to skate clean, preferably with a clean quad. There are a couple of skaters who might beat him if he skates particularly badly, but so long as he skates well, he's on the podium and then it's as the chips fall.
3. Evan Lysacek-Both events done and he has 22 points, which probably won't be enough.
4. Kevin Reynolds-To have a chance he'd need to win NHK, which is extremely unlikely, unless he takes silver and things fall a very certain way, and even silver would be very hard for him in this field.
Skate Canada top four(excluding Evan):
1. Patrick Chan-Needs only to make the podium at Trophee Eric Bombard, where he'll be the favorite for silver, and the only person I can see beating him to it is Kozuka, in which case, barring complete disaster, he's still on the podium and locked.
2. Ryan Bradley-Would need to win Trophee Eric Bombard to seal it, which is extremely unlikely. Might be fine if he won silver, but he'd have to not only beat Chan, but Preaubert and Kozuka. Would have a fighting chance if he beat two of the previous three for the bronze, which could happen. He also could possibly be knocked down to fifth, which would be the absolute end of it. He'll need some very good luck, both in his skating and how the chips fall.
4. Yannick Ponsero-Exact same situation as Reynolds.
Knocked out of the race, but might mix things up at the other events:
Kevin van der Perran-withdrew from Skate America, might displace someone at Cup of Russia
Sergei Voronov-sixth at Skate Canada, but one of the top contenders at Cup of Russia
Contenders yet to compete:
Certain contenders:
Brian Joubert
Daisuke Takahashi
Probable contenders:
Tomas Verner
Possible contenders:
Stephen Carriere
Jeremy Abbott
Alban Preaubert
Or in this season? Possibly anyone with two events!