Philip Hersh on numbers and pressure for Petrosian at Olympics

[Jeanie19]

Adelia will be in the first group in the short, so I don't expect pc's to be high. If she skates clean she will be in final flight for the long. So I think the short will decide it. She could win the free and still not podium. The short score has to be competitive with the top girls.

 

[Mathman]

Adelia will be in the first group in the short, so I don't expect pc's to be high. If she skates clean she will be in final flight for the long. So I think the short will decide it. She could win the free and still not podium. The short score has to be competitive with the top girls.

That's a good point. In the short program, with only a triple Axel in play (no quads), Petrosyan's top score is less than two points above Amber Glenn's. It wouldn't surprise me to see Alysa Liu go to work on the 3A in the fall season, though maybe not in the SP. (She was reportedly playing around with it in practice at 2025 Worlds.)

The long program is a different matter, though. If Petrosyan brings two quads and a 3A, she can make up ground quick if she is anywhere in the top group for the LP.

 

[jenaj]

Especially after the chaos that was the last Olympics, I don’t think that there is a clear favorite. Valieva was considered a lock for gold (until she wasn’t) and Adeliia is nowhere near that level of dominance, and there are many skaters who could very well take that title without things ending in a disaster. I do think Adeliia is one of the front runners but I definitely don’t think she’s a lock for gold.

I think Adeliia has about the same level of TES as Valieva. 2 3As plus 2 4toes. If she retains her quads, and even if she misses her 3As, she will almost certainly win. She could even substitute double axels and win. Maybe she will. At her last competition, the Russian GP Final, she missed her 3As in both the short and the long and still won by a large margin. I think the ISU needs to rethink the insurmountable advantage that quads create--in the men's as well as the women's. They make PCS/artistry irrelevant. When TES has a 20-30 point advantage, the difference between, say, a 72 (average 9) and a 64 (average 8) in ladies PCS doesn't matter. The skater who can do the high value jumps will win with a 64.

 

[Minz]

I think Adeliia has about the same level of TES as Valieva. 2 3As plus 2 4toes. If she retains her quads, and even if she misses her 3As, she will almost certainly win. She could even substitute double axels and win. Maybe she will. At her last competition, the Russian GP Final, she missed her 3As in both the short and the long and still won by a large margin. I think the ISU needs to rethink the insurmountable advantage that quads create--in the men's as well as the women's. They make PCS/artistry irrelevant. When TES has a 20-30 point advantage, the difference between, say, a 72 (average 9) and a 64 (average 8) in ladies PCS doesn't matter. The skater who can do the high value jumps will win with a 64.

I mean Valieva did 3 quads, and plus Adeliia still needs to qualify the spot first before she can win anything. But I do see your point. I just think there’s a lot of variables involved right now and we won’t know for sure until later, which is why I don’t think she’s a lock right now.

 

[gmyers]

I believe 7.75 pcs is very likely for Adelia in short program. If she rotates all her jump and gets all her levels and maybe +1 goe on everything that would give her 71 points. That would put her 3 points behind first place and this years worlds!

 

[Mathman]

I believe 7.75 pcs is very likely for Adelia in short program. If she rotates all her jump and gets all her levels and maybe +1 goe on everything that would give her 71 points. That would put her 3 points behind first place and this years worlds!

I think that this is quite reasonable. Looking at the PCS for the 2025 Worlds, the judges were quite stingy across the board. Not a single lady got a 9 in any component.

I do not. however, think that Petrosyan will be disadvantaged by skating in the first group or that the judges will mark her down because they have not seen her in international competitions. The judges are not ignorant of this unique situation. A lot will depend on the qualifying trials, though.

 

[soccerjc77]

One thing I like about Adelia being the only representative of her country is that we won't have any drama with two Eteri skaters finishing 1st and 2nd.
I admit that the drama between Zagitova/Medvedeva and Sherbakova/Trusova was so heavy that each silver medalist was jealous of the gold medalist.
Thank goodness that Adelia won't have to go through such drama again with the 1st place finisher and 2nd place finisher.

 

[Mathman]

One thing I like about Adelia being the only representative of her country is that we won't have any drama with two Eteri skaters finishing 1st and 2nd.

Oh, I don't know. It seems like if you are going for the gold medal then you will be disappointed with silver, whether your rival trains at the same gym or 10,000 miles away.

 

[Arigato]

Thank goodness that Adelia won't have to go through such drama again with the 1st place finisher and 2nd place finisher.

Apparently, part of figure skating has now entered its crystal ball era.

 

[soccerjc77]

Oh, I don't know. It seems like if you are going for the gold medal then you will be disappointed with silver, whether your rival trains at the same gym or 10,000 miles away.

That's true, but the Gold will be easy for her since that she is the only one who do 2 quads in the FS. Except ... if Veronika Zhilina success to compete for Azerbaijan ... Maybe the curse of the drama will continue lol

 

[Mathman]

... if Veronika Zhilina success to compete for Azerbaijan ... Maybe the curse of the drama will continue lol

But then we could get some red hot Eteri versus Plushenko drama!

 

[TallyT]

Thank goodness that Adelia won't have to go through such drama again with the 1st place finisher and 2nd place finisher.

Can we please not jinx the women this early on??? Our sport has a long and sad history of 'total locks' that weren't.

 

[lariko]

Imo, there is absolutely no point to wonder until we see Petrosian in September. Usually, Team Tutberidze doesn't put their skaters in shape for September (Trusova and B/K were exceptions and it backfired). I don’t want to know what brutal regimen Petrosian is going to be on this summer and between September and February if she qualifies. She is already small-framed and not as generously naturally musculed as Trusova, and they shredded Trusova to sinew. And I sure hope media holds its tongues for once.

 

[Tutto]

Imo, there is absolutely no point to wonder until we see Petrosian in September. Usually, Team Tutberidze doesn't put their skaters in shape for September (Trusova and B/K were exceptions and it backfired). I don’t want to know what brutal regimen Petrosian is going to be on this summer and between September and February if she qualifies. She is already small-framed and not as generously naturally musculed as Trusova, and they shredded Trusova to sinew. And I sure hope media holds its tongues for once.

Ahh but there is a point - how else we get through boredom of the off-season?

 

[gmyers]

Imo, there is absolutely no point to wonder until we see Petrosian in September. Usually, Team Tutberidze doesn't put their skaters in shape for September (Trusova and B/K were exceptions and it backfired). I don’t want to know what brutal regimen Petrosian is going to be on this summer and between September and February if she qualifies. She is already small-framed and not as generously naturally musculed as Trusova, and they shredded Trusova to sinew. And I sure hope media holds its tongues for once.

Russian test skates always in September. She couldn’t be doing nothing . She would have to be doing something anyway.

 

[CanadianSkaterGuy]

Adelia will be in the first group in the short, so I don't expect pc's to be high. If she skates clean she will be in final flight for the long. So I think the short will decide it. She could win the free and still not podium. The short score has to be competitive with the top girls.

Are you kidding me? She has to fall twice to not make the final flight. She’s not Kim - she’s the poster child of a federation banking on her to be the beacon of Russia’s Olympic prowess. They will do whatever to make sure she succeeds.

Valieva, a relative newbie on the Senior circuit, royally **** the bed at the Olympics and still got 70 PCS. Think about that.

Adelina - oop sorry, I meant Adelia - is getting overscored regardless of how she skates.

 

[Blades of Passion]

One thing I like about Adelia being the only representative of her country is that we won't have any drama with two Eteri skaters finishing 1st and 2nd.

Russian girls never won Olympics in the universe I am building:

2014 podium: Yuna Kim (programs choreographed by me), Ashley Wagner (coached and choreographed by me), Carolina Kostner (Long Program edited by me)

2018 podium: Mao Asada (coached and choreographed by me), Medvedeva (goes to Brian Orser a season earlier after being scored properly in 2017 and failing to make world podium with Eteri, programs choreographed by me), Tutu backloading girl

2022 podium: Karen Chen (coached and choreographed by me, gains Triple Axel), Alena Kostornaia (keeps her 2019-2020 season form), Trusova (remains with Plushenko, doping scheme is revealed to be orchestrated by Eteri the prior year and her skaters are out)

2026 podium (opinion still pending, but this looks fun): Mao Shimada, Amber Glenn, Wakaba Higuchi

 

[Jeanie19]

Russian girls never won Olympics in the universe I am building:

2014 podium: Yuna Kim (programs choreographed by me), Ashley Wagner (coached and choreographed by me), Carolina Kostner (Long Program edited by me)

2018 podium: Mao Asada (coached and choreographed by me), Medvedeva (goes to Brian Orser a season earlier after being scored properly in 2017 and failing to make world podium with Eteri, programs choreographed by me), Tutu backloading girl

2022 podium: Karen Chen (coached and choreographed by me, gains Triple Axel), Alena Kostornaia (keeps her 2019-2020 season form), Trusova (remains with Plushenko, doping scheme is revealed to be orchestrated by Eteri the prior year and her skaters are out)

2026 podium (opinion still pending, but this looks fun): Mao Shimada, Amber Glenn, Wakaba Higuchi

Mao Shimada is not age eligible. You need to pick another girl.

 

[Blades of Passion]

Mao Shimada is not age eligible.

She is in my universe! She would've also been eligible for Worlds this year.

 

[Mathman]

Are you kidding me? She has to fall twice to not make the final flight. She’s not Kim - she’s the poster child of a federation banking on her to be the beacon of Russia’s Olympic prowess. They will do whatever to make sure she succeeds.

Who is THEY in the last sentence? The Russian Federation? The ISU?

What can the Russian Federation do to promote the fortunes of their poster girl? As for the ISU, what reason would they have for wishing to do so?