2025-26 Japanese Women's Figure Skating

[YuBluByMe]

I slightly disagree with some of the posts here. Yes, Kaori, Mone, and Ami are the leading candidates right now and Kaori will be chosen barring injury. But, Japan values Nationals more than other federations and has sent skaters who didn't make the GPF over skaters who did in the past.

I don’t think anyone is looking at just GPF, though. It’s the selection pool. There’s only four skaters in it and three out of the four have been skating well all season. Japan has gone away with making decisions based solely on Nationals results, which is why they started publishing selection criteria in the first place. National results have usually aligned with what goes on for the season in the ladies so there have been no surprises.

I think any Senior who gets on the podium at Nationals has a good chance of being sent. OTOH, if Ami goes to Nationals and has a performance like she did at Skate Canada or if Mone falls twice or three times in her programs, I wouldn't say their places are secured. So, if Rion, Rino, or Saki get 2nd or 3rd at Nationals don't count them out imho.

Some of this is actually what I’m trying to say, though. Anyone outside the pool who makes the podium will only have a realistic shot at being chosen for the Olympic team if they win or if Chiba and/or Nakai skate poorly at Nationals . Just making the podium with Chiba and Nakai skating well is not going to be enough.

And honestly, Nakai’s Skate Canada results isn’t an example of her skating poorly. Neither is Chiba’s GPF results because she still scored 210+ and only a handful of Japanese have scored that high. (Although I do understand the context of her results must be considered.)

Edit: Slightly changed wording of the first sentence in second paragraph.

 

[RafaelAstro]

Mone’s result in the free skate was probably due to the stress of being in first place after the short program on home ice, plus hearing Ami’s and Alysa’s scores, which were higher than anything she has received all season. She needs to learn from this. I don’t expect a bad performance from her at Nationals, so I don’t think her Olympic spot is in danger. She has shown mental strength all season, but in more important situations like this she can still be vulnerable. She needs to work on that.

 

[rabidline]

I think Mone should take heart from how she's able to complete her FS after the 2 falls, and still score 210 total. That's still a huge score and speaks to her overall consistency and reputation.

One thing that raised my eyebrow was Hamada running away and hiding when Mone fell. I guess they both must have known the GPF title is at stake, but it's a bit too OTT for me. I don't think I've ever seen coaches do that, even the emotional ones.

What I think is going to be interesting is the selection for the Olympic team event for the Japanese women... I wonder how that will shake out. I wonder if they will still use the switch for women and men or we can see Japan using the switch for... pairs.

 

[freedomlover]

I think Mone should take heart from how she's able to complete her FS after the 2 falls, and still score 210 total. That's still a huge score and speaks to her overall consistency and reputation.

One thing that raised my eyebrow was Hamada running away and hiding when Mone fell. I guess they both must have known the GPF title is at stake, but it's a bit too OTT for me. I don't think I've ever seen coaches do that, even the emotional ones.

What I think is going to be interesting is the selection for the Olympic team event for the Japanese women... I wonder how that will shake out. I wonder if they will still use the switch for women and men or we can see Japan using the switch for... pairs.

Mhm.... I can't see that happening since all other pairs are pretty strong this season, and Japan's Ice Dance team probably won't place very high. If they are aiming for gold, they need all points they can get.
I don't even want to be in Mone's shoes going back to the next training session at Kinoshita. Mie Hamada is... intense. I had Mone down for the free skate in the Team Event... But it does depend on Nationals. She needs to show that the GPF was a fluke in an otherwise amazing season for her.

 

[throw_triple_flip]

Before GPF Mone looked like a lock for the Olympic team, but now I'm not so sure.... She's still in the pool, sure, but if this shaky performance continues to Nationals and she's off the podium, I wonder if JSF will lose confidence in her.

She still got a huge score even with the mistakes and nervy performance.

 

[throw_triple_flip]

But, Japan values Nationals more than other federations and has sent skaters who didn't make the GPF over skaters who did in the past. I think any Senior who gets on the podium at Nationals has a good chance of being sent.

Their approach to selection has changed somewhat recently.
It used to be that those who got worlds were all pretty likely to be at 4CC (except olympic years maybe?). That's not been the case the past few seasons.

Remember all the controversy when Koshiro Shimada took national silver one year and didn't get to go to worlds and Rinka Watanabe got sent to worlds even though she was outside the top 10?

 

[rabidline]

Remember all the controversy when Koshiro Shimada took national silver one year and didn't get to go to worlds and Rinka Watanabe got sent to worlds even though she was outside the top 10?

Yeah, that was the start of JSF having an official pre-Nationals announcement on which skaters are already in the selection pool before Nationals. Obviously people who crunch the numbers have figured it out earlier like how it's listed above, but I think having JSF acknowledging it publicly helps them be more consistent in how they make their selection. (And their post-selection press conference became a lot more substantive than just "prioritizing the youth" lol).

4CC selection has a wider net, but one thing that usually gets underacknowledged is the top skaters who did well at Nationals do have a say in that assignment. So some of the selections happen not because JSF wants a different team for 4CC and Olympics/Worlds (except during COVID because they had mandatory quarantine period at that time) but simply because the top skaters requested to be taken out from 4CC selection. On the other side, top skaters at Nationals can request to get sent to 4CC and also assigned to Worlds, meaning there's one less spot at 4CC for others. I have seen more fans saying "well A, B, C should go to Olys and D, E, F should go to 4CC" and... that may not be the case (especially if the Olympic first-timers want another big warm up competition to boost their reputation and standings).

 

[readernick]

Their approach to selection has changed somewhat recently.
It used to be that those who got worlds were all pretty likely to be at 4CC (except olympic years maybe?). That's not been the case the past few seasons.

Remember all the controversy when Koshiro Shimada took national silver one year and didn't get to go to worlds and Rinka Watanabe got sent to worlds even though she was outside the top 10?

As I said, they are moving towards body of work. But, I don't think they are completely willing to disregard Nationals results in the same way some other feds are. Are Mone and Ami the odds-on favorites? percent. But, I do think a very good on the podium, significantly higher score than other Seniors who are off the podium placement from Rion, Rino, or Saki, even if they don't win, would definitely bring their names into consideration and might be valued more than GPF results. Rinka was chosen that year despite her bad Nationals result because there wasn't another Senior on the podium and she was the only one who met the other selection criteria. Getting on the podium at Nats immediately earns you consideration. I will say leaving Koshiro off the team that year was surprising and did prove to me that Japan was willing to leave a Senior who made the podium at home. But, imho, that's not enough evidence to show the Japanese federation no longer prioritizes Nationals. Basically, I still strongly believe it's not over until it's over. So, Rion, Rino, and Saki should absolutely still believe they have a chance.

 

[Remilia]

Before GPF Mone looked like a lock for the Olympic team, but now I'm not so sure.... She's still in the pool, sure, but if this shaky performance continues to Nationals and she's off the podium, I wonder if JSF will lose confidence in her. BUT since her coach has a lot of influence with JSF, she'll probably still go anyway.

If Mone does go to the Olympics, I really really hope she can get some help from a sports psychologist. She looked absolutely terrified both in her GPF SP and FS - while she survived the SP somehow, it proved too much for the free

I think this is a bit silly, given she still beat Rinka here. And She's been scoring higher than both Rinka and Rion all season and has proven to be more consistent than them, so it makes no sense for jsf to choose either of them over her even if they medal at nats and she doesn't. Plus, her odds of medaling at the Olympics is way higher than either of them
But I don't expect Mone to crumble at nats anyway

 

[Joekaz]

To figure out who will be going to the Olympics you first have to understand that figure skating is NOT an honest sport.There is tremendous political influence from the JSF involved, especially in an Olympic year. They have made it plain the last 2 seasons that Kaori and Mone are already going. With her GPF performance, Ami is almost certain to be the final selection. The only way for Ami to not go is to pull a Valieva while Sumiyoshi or Rinka hit all their quads and 3As perfectly and skate to Kaori level on top of it. That isn't going to happen,and even if it did,it will not be scored like it. You would have handfuls of mystery q's, URs, edge calls, level 2 and 3s, and miniscule GOE and PCS to correct things. Also, this idea that JSF changed their selection process is a myth they propagated after the Kawabe debacle last Olympics. There was plenty of criteria back when they took Sakamoto over Higuchi, and before. They always leave themselves the right to pick someone who doesn't podium. That is nothing new. But they generally like to go with the podium unless they strongly prefer someone else. But, usually, in that case, the judges will take care of that so the JSF doesn't have to. In 2017, Sakamoto was not chosen because the JSF preferred Higuchi but Kaori beat her. She was chosen because she beat Higuchi AND they were happy to send her instead. As a first year senior, Kaori would have never gotten scores like that without FED support. She was the surprise star of the competition, making up for Hanyu's absence. Ami is poised to make a big splash here as well, although not nearly as much of a surprise. Just watch how strictly 95 percent of the skaters are judged. Then watch how the girls on the podium are judged to separate them and also boost them for the Olys. As I say, not an honest sport.

 

[RafaelAstro]

I believe that if Rion, Rinka, and Rino get good results at Nationals, they may be sent to 4CC, and maybe one of them to Worlds, but not the Olympics. That team already seems very clear at this point (Ami, Kaori, Mone).
Since 4CC takes place very close to the Olympics, it doesn’t make sense to send their Olympic team there. In 2022, none of the Japanese ladies on the Olympic team competed at 4CC, but they did compete at Worlds, so we may see the same situation here.
However, it would be smarter if the team for Worlds is not exactly the same as the Olympic team, as that would better secure the three spots for next year’s Worlds.

 

[rabidline]

Since 4CC takes place very close to the Olympics, it doesn’t make sense to send their Olympic team there. In 2022, none of the Japanese ladies on the Olympic team competed at 4CC, but they did compete at Worlds, so we may see the same situation here.

In 2022, there is a mandatory COVID-induced quarantine period (IIRC 2 weeks) for all Japanese citizens after going home from traveling abroad. That's why the 4CC (Estonia) and Olympic (China) team is different- skaters who go to 4CC will not be able to train optimally or even finish the quarantine period properly before leaving to Olympics. And as you can see with what happened with Vincent Zhou, even making it to the Olympics didn't release them from risk of testing positive for COVID.

You have to go back to 2017-2018 season to see what "normal" Olympic season looks like. And Shoma Uno, Keiji Tanaka, Satoko Miyahara, Kaori Sakamoto as well as Ryuichi/Miu and Kana/Chris all competed at both 2018 4CC (Taipei) and 2018 Olympics (South Korea). And it was a fruitful competition for Shoma (who got back on track and finalized his jump layout after disappointing Nationals) and Kaori (who doubled down on her Olympic assignment with a 4CC title). With all the first-timer Olympics in singles (only Kaori, Yuma and Mana Kawabe have been to the Olympics before), I can see most of them accepting both 4CC, Olympics AND Worlds this time.

 

[RafaelAstro]

In 2022, there is a mandatory COVID-induced quarantine period (IIRC 2 weeks) for all Japanese citizens after going home from traveling abroad. That's why the 4CC (Estonia) and Olympic (China) team is different- skaters who go to 4CC will not be able to train optimally or even finish the quarantine period properly before leaving to Olympics. And as you can see with what happened with Vincent Zhou, even making it to the Olympics didn't release them from risk of testing positive for COVID.

You have to go back to 2017-2018 season to see what "normal" Olympic season looks like. And Shoma Uno, Keiji Tanaka, Satoko Miyahara, Kaori Sakamoto as well as Ryuichi/Miu and Kana/Chris all competed at both 2018 4CC (Taipei) and 2018 Olympics (South Korea). And it was a fruitful competition for Shoma (who got back on track and finalized his jump layout after disappointing Nationals) and Kaori (who doubled down on her Olympic assignment with a 4CC title). With all the first-timer Olympics in singles (only Kaori, Yuma and Mana Kawabe have been to the Olympics before), I can see most of them accepting both 4CC, Olympics AND Worlds this time.

But in 2018 there were only two spots for Japan at the Olympics and Worlds, and they didn’t have as deep a field as we see this time. At the 2023 4CC, two of the girls competing there didn’t compete at Worlds; same case with the 2024 4CC. At the 2025 4CC, one of them didn’t compete at Worlds. So in this case, where we have both the Olympics and Worlds, there is no reason to think Japan will use the same team for everything, including the 4CC. It will also depend on whether the skaters choose not to take their 4CC assignment (if they get one) and focus on the Olympics and Worlds, which are more important competitions. That may lead to a different team for 4cc. I forget about Saki, she may be considered for 4cc if she does well

 

[denise3lz]

The following are comments made by Mone Chiba after the Grand Prix Final.
I felt that taking things too seriously can sometimes appear comical.

https://news.yahoo.co.jp/articles/2138f5fbf1fd071ba77f54eed8ad755db5f066be

緊張を自覚することはいかに大事か。悔しさに浸っているのは甘え。自分の弱さを受け止めるべき

How vital it is to be aware of one's own tension. Dwelling on regret is self-indulgence. One must accept one's own weaknesses.

どんな状況でも折れない、貫き通す自分の意思。意思が行動に出る。そういう意識をとにかく鋼のように固くしてやり通すしかないというニュアンスの感じでずっと考えていた

No matter the circumstances, an unbreakable will that persists. That will manifests in action. I've been contemplating this with the sense that one must simply steel oneself with such resolve and see it through.

自分に悔しがる権利はない。悔しがる時間もない。自分のスケート人生にとって、一番生死を分ける期間。そういう時に来ているという自覚を持って全日本に臨むしかない

I have no right to feel regret. Nor do I have time for it. This is the most crucial period in my skating career. I must approach the All Japan Championships with the full awareness that this is precisely the moment I have been facing.

 

[freedomlover]

In all fairness though, if people were going into their first Olympic season as a podium favourite they might take it this seriously too.

 

[rabidline]

The following are comments made by Mone Chiba after the Grand Prix Final.
I felt that taking things too seriously can sometimes appear comical.

https://news.yahoo.co.jp/articles/2138f5fbf1fd071ba77f54eed8ad755db5f066be

How vital it is to be aware of one's own tension. Dwelling on regret is self-indulgence. One must accept one's own weaknesses.

No matter the circumstances, an unbreakable will that persists. That will manifests in action. I've been contemplating this with the sense that one must simply steel oneself with such resolve and see it through.

I have no right to feel regret. Nor do I have time for it. This is the most crucial period in my skating career. I must approach the All Japan Championships with the full awareness that this is precisely the moment I have been facing.

Yahoo News comment section loves this kind of dramatic comments I see...

 

[YuBluByMe]

What I think is going to be interesting is the selection for the Olympic team event for the Japanese women... I wonder how that will shake out. I wonder if they will still use the switch for women and men or we can see Japan using the switch for... pairs.

I’ve been thinking about this for a few weeks now and I hope they don’t use a switch for pairs. I haven’t done the math (yet), but I think Japan’s the only country that could challenge the US for team gold. Nagaoka/Moriguchi are very solid, but that doesn’t mean they should be used for the team event if Japan wants to go for the gold.

…but I understand the logic behind it. Japan isn’t in any real danger of losing a team medal; it’s the color of the medal that’s being fought for. Pairs being switched then means that women won’t be. And Japan actually doesn’t need to switch out women. The entire Japanese ladies Olympic team could beat either Liu-Glenn-Levito so if they’re not concentrating on the gold and focused on spreading the Olympic medals, then you pick the girl least likely to medal in the individual event to skate both segments.

 

[yfan1]

I’ve been thinking about this for a few weeks now and I hope they don’t use a switch for pairs. I haven’t done the math (yet), but I think Japan’s the only country that could challenge the US for team gold.

It is, and they should try to. I don't think it'll happen though.

Too early and all, but USA can go first in all disciplines but Pairs. Japan can really only definitely be first in Pairs.

If the US sends Ilia for both segments, that's likely the maximum points for Men there and then, and then ID with C/B too.

Women might be a fight and close, but Alysa and Amber likely won't finish lower than 3rd, and could even win whichever segment they're sent to. It's only Pairs that Japan will 100% win both segments on.

 

[freedomlover]

It is, and they should try to. I don't think it'll happen though.

Too early and all, but USA can go first in all disciplines but Pairs. Japan can really only definitely be first in Pairs.

If the US sends Ilia for both segments, that's likely the maximum points for Men there and then, and then ID with C/B too.

Women might be a fight and close, but Alysa and Amber likely won't finish lower than 3rd, and could even win whichever segment they're sent to. It's only Pairs that Japan will 100% win both segments on.

Ilia already has stated that we won't be doing the Free, I think.

 

[yfan1]

It would be very deluded of the United States Team to not try and guarantee a team gold. Ilia skating both segments is one of those guarantees.