2025-26 Japanese Men's Figure Skating

[rabidline]

Haru Kakiuchi got the NHK Trophy host spot for men.

 

[rabidline]

Posted this in the Women's thread, but an interesting thing in the JSF document that lays out the regionals and sectionals quota is that it also has "Athletes who have not yet met the Olympic minimum score will be sent to the Golden Spin." elaboration in it.

- Target competitions: East Japan and West Japan sectionals.
- From these, the highest-scoring athlete who meets the standard (Men: 271, Women: 205) will be selected.

So there are Japanese women who didn't get GP or Challenger assignments but can score 205 locally like Rika Kihira and Mana Kawabe. But the men... 271 is high. Sota and Kazuki barely cleared that with their international PB.

So I'm just wondering if JSF knows something for the men... or it's just a random number they released.

 

[denise3lz]

So I'm just wondering if JSF knows something for the men... or it's just a random number they released.

6th score at 2025 Worlds for Men and Women ?

 

[brblja]

Posted this in the Women's thread, but an interesting thing in the JSF document that lays out the regionals and sectionals quota is that it also has "Athletes who have not yet met the Olympic minimum score will be sent to the Golden Spin." elaboration in it.

- Target competitions: East Japan and West Japan sectionals.
- From these, the highest-scoring athlete who meets the standard (Men: 271, Women: 205) will be selected.

So there are Japanese women who didn't get GP or Challenger assignments but can score 205 locally like Rika Kihira and Mana Kawabe. But the men... 271 is high. Sota and Kazuki barely cleared that with their international PB.

So I'm just wondering if JSF knows something for the men... or it's just a random number they released.

I don’t think it’s based on them predicting someone can clear that, but rather this particular level being competitive for potential medals internationally. The whole point of this memo is saying that if sb who’d be a candidate for medals comes up during Sectionals, the federation will make sure they have a chance to obtain an international minimum before nationals.

This is probably a consequence of a few cases in previous years when someone did break through but couldn’t be taken into account for the Worlds/4CC teams because of the lack of ISU minimums. So it’d make sense for the Fed to promise to send out skaters in such a situation, but only if the score has actual international potential.

 

[YuBluByMe]

A.

1. National champion will be selected.

• TBD

B.

1. Second and third at Nationals
2. Top two GPF competitors
3. Top three season’s best

• TBD
• Kagiyama, Sato
• Kagiyama (302.41), Sato (292.08), Miura (253.69)

C.

1. Top three world’s standing
2. Top three season ranking
3. Top three highest average score in two competitions, to include domestic competition

• Kagiyama (2), Sato (5), Miura (11)
• Kagiyama (2), Sato (4), Tomono (9)
• Kagiyama (294.83), Sato (288.90), Tomono (248.52)

Selection Pool: Kagiyama, Sato, Miura, Tomono

Any skater not currently in the selection pool will need to make the podium at Nationals to be considered for the Olympic team.

 

[rabidline]

They will not not take Yuma to the Olympics.

Shun should have done enough for not just the Olympic spot but also the Team Event. Likely the FS will go to him while Yuma gets the SP, but we'll see how they decide, usually the National champion gets to choose.

On paper it's Kao vs Kazuki at Nationals for the third Olympic spot, but both are men capable to.... men. No other medals at the GP circuit a la 2024 Tatsuya nor a GPF qualifier + podium a la 2022 Sota, so it really should all go down at Nationals.

 

[lileychristie]

On paper it's Kao vs Kazuki at Nationals for the third Olympic spot, but both are men capable to.... men. No other medals at the GP circuit a la 2024 Tatsuya nor a GPF qualifier + podium a la 2022 Sota, so it really should all go down at Nationals.

If Yuma, Shun & Rio podium and both Kao and Kazuki cactuses at Nationals, I wonder if they'll just pick whoever has the higher score (no matter how low that is lol)

Another interesting scenario is if another senior lands on the podium while Kao & Kazuki does well but not enough to podium, will they pick the other senior

 

[rabidline]

If Yuma, Shun & Rio podium and both Kao and Kazuki cactuses at Nationals, I wonder if they'll just pick whoever has the higher score (no matter how low that is lol)

Another interesting scenario is if another senior lands on the podium while Kao & Kazuki does well but not enough to podium, will they pick the other senior

I think if Kao and Kazuki both do reasonably well, whoever finishes highest at Nationals will go.

If both Kao and Kazuki menned in a moderate manner (aka not podium but also not meltdowns), and an eligible senior man not Yuma and Shun make it to the podium with a normal, cleanish performance, I can still see them picking whoever did best out of Kao and Kazuki.

If both Kao and Kazuki menned very badly, and an eligible senior man skates lights out incredible at Nationals and makes it to the podium (maybe beating Rio and/or Shun in the process), I can see the choice being opened from 2 to 3 men, but still with equal chances between them.

Definitely an intriguing and heart-pounding race for sure.

 

[KiraraChin]

Looking at placements in the past few years:

Kao: 4th (2021), 6th (2022), 4th (2023), 8th (2024)

Kazuki: 5th (2021), 3rd (2022), 6th (2023), 5th (2024)

Sota: 8th (2021), 5th (2022), 3rd (2023), 10th (2024)

Tatsuya: 9th (2021), 9th (2022), 7th (2023), 3rd (2024)

On paper, Kazuki has the upper hand on the consistency front, the last time he finished below 6th at Nats was in... 2015! But anything can happen in Men figure skating, so god knows

 

[YuBluByMe]

If you’re just looking at the selection criteria, then Miura’s claim is stronger than Tomono’s because he meets the criteria that is weighted more.

Tomono’s claim is stronger when you add in the context: Miura’s SB is only about two points higher than Tomono’s. They both have a bronze on the GP, but Tomono was first alternate for GPF. He also beat Miura handily at Kinoshita Cup and his floor hasn’t been as low.

It’s going to come down to whomever places higher at Nationals, but neither have results so strong that they’ll be picked over an eligible medalist, depending on how low they are in the standings.

Sato has just about locked it up. I correctly predicted last year that he’ll be chosen for Worlds as long as he doesn’t bomb Nationals and no one in the selection pool is above him. He did bomb….but everyone else in the selection pool did worse. Heh. I think it’ll be similar this year, except that Miura and Tomono will have to podium and he will have to skate terribly.

 

[freedomlover]

If you’re just looking at the selection criteria, then Miura’s claim is stronger than Tomono’s because he meets the criteria that is weighted more.

Tomono’s claim is stronger when you add in the context: Miura’s SB is only about two points higher than Tomono’s. They both have a bronze on the GP, but Tomono was first alternate for GPF. He also beat Miura handily at Kinoshita Cup and his floor hasn’t been as low.

It’s going to come down to whomever places higher at Nationals, but neither have results so strong that they’ll be picked over an eligible medalist, depending on how low they are in the standings.

Sato has just about locked it up. I correctly predicted last year that he’ll be chosen for Worlds as long as he doesn’t bomb Nationals and no one in the selection pool is above him. He did bomb….but everyone else in the selection pool did worse. Heh. I think it’ll be similar this year, except that Miura and Tomono will have to podium and he will have to skate terribly.

Shun has the highest international Free Skate SB. If he isn't at least chosen for the Team Event Free Skate I will riot.

 

[KiraraChin]

I think JSF showed last year that context matters. Kao and Tatsuya were tied in the criteria - Kao had a higher SB, and Tatsuya medalled at Nats. In the end, they went with Tatsuya and were very vocal about the fact that Tatsuya was chosen because of his consistency.

It was a clear message for Kao to work on his consistency which, Skate Canada aside, he hasn't really shown yet. Even Skate Canada was well below his scoring potential, so I wouldn't be surprised if JSF were to be looking for a convincing performance that truly shows he's back to his old self, otherwise it's too much of a risk to put him on the team. It's been, what, two years of struggle now? And he's been given opportunities to go to big events and blown them (Worlds 2024, 4CC 2025).

Kazuki has also a lot of prove, of course, and he needs to place above Kao and, at the very least, finish on the podium or close to the podium. But I think if Rio medals, and everyone else is meh, there's more of a chance he'll be picked based on the context/consistency than Kao based on a SB that is still well below his potential. Just my two cents, I might be totally wrong of course

 

[surimi]

Tomono’s claim is stronger when you add in the context: Miura’s SB is only about two points higher than Tomono’s. They both have a bronze on the GP, but Tomono was first alternate for GPF. He also beat Miura handily at Kinoshita Cup and his floor hasn’t been as low.

And on top of that, Kazuki consistently doesn't bomb competitions that matter - for the last 5 years, he's never placed lower than 6th, including major championships and Nationals. (with a single exception, which was 7th at 4CC 2020)

I agree with the posters here, the third OG spot is between Kazuki and Kao, barring injuries or an unprecedented Nationals flop from both of them. There are fans who will still mention Sota in this context, but as much as I'd love for him to go and for a miracle to happen, the realist in me says his chances are only slightly higher than in 2018. He'd have to score 270-280 combined to impress JSF enough to forgive him his wild result swings and unreliability in big competitions. Which is not realistic because he's still injured. So my hope lies with my favorite #2, which is Kazuki.

 

[lariko]

I really hope that Miura does wonderfully at the JNats then. I would be thrilled if he is chosen as the third for the Olympic team.

 

[KiraraChin]

And on top of that, Kazuki consistently doesn't bomb competitions that matter - for the last 5 years, he's never placed lower than 6th, including major championships and Nationals. (with a single exception, which was 7th at 4CC 2020)

That's true and what a crazy stat, alongside his 9-year streak of placing 6th or above at Nats. The way he manages to keep himself afloat in the field despite all the odds needs to be studied

 

[tsuyoboogie]

My prediction and what I would like to see happen (started looking into Worlds tix and accommodations right after NHK...or SkAm?)

Yuma, Shun, Kazuki ~ Olys (Kao 1st alt)
Yuma, Shun, Kao ~ WC (Kazuki 1st alt)

Sorry, Kao if you stay healthy you can go to Olys next time...my tragic boy learned and matured a lot this season

Shun historically doesn't perform well at Nats which is why it was important for him to do well during GP
However, this year I think it's likely Shun will maintain "good form" for Nats and Olys but will burnout before Worlds,
possibly deciding to WD resulting in Kazuki being sent instead
Let me be clear, I'm a Shun fan and would love to see him sustain his current momentum and form through WC...BUT
considering what he's been putting his body through...pushing through injury...even the body of a top athlete has it's limits

I'm sad for Sota...his injury, probably the worst of all the boys, also happened at the worst time
But Sota has proven himself to be tough and resilient and I can see him remaining competitive for another quad
I also think he'll do well enough at Nats (possibly podium) to be an Oly and WC alternate and assigned to 4CC


edit: forgot to mention, I predict Kao on the podium...yup, now I've jinxed him...actually, I'm going for a reverse jinx

 

[KiraraChin]

My prediction and what I would like to see happen (started looking into Worlds tix and accommodations right after NHK)

Yuma, Shun, Kazuki ~ Olys (Kao 1st alt)
Yuma, Shun, Kao ~ WC (Kazuki 1st alt)

Sorry, Kao if you stay healthy you can go to Olys next time...my tragic boy learned and matured a lot this season

Shun historically doesn't perform well at Nats which is why it was important for him to do well during GP
However, this year I think it's likely Shun will maintain "good form" for Nats and Olys but will burnout before Worlds,
possibly deciding to WD resulting in Kazuki being sent instead
Let me be clear, I'm a Shun fan and would love to see him sustain his current momentum and form through WC...BUT
considering what he's been putting his body through...pushing through injury...even the body of a top athlete has it's limits

I'm sad for Sota...his injury, probably the worst of all the boys, also happened at the worst time
But Sota has proven himself to be tough and resilient and I can see him remaining competitive for another quad
I also think he'll do well enough at Nats (possibly podium) to be an Oly and WC alternate and assigned to 4CC

That's exactly what I think as well, and it would be the fairest scenario considering everything that happened so far this season.
I'm also really sad for Sota but I agree he's a fighter and he will bounce back from this. I'm not sure about medalling at Nats, but I think a 4CC assignment is possible for him

 

[rabidline]

Japan Nationals is a different beast, and I think Shun and Kao not making it yet to the Nationals podium highlights that uniqueness.

That said, after his last Nationals, Shun managed to navigate his serious injury to finish high enough at Worlds and secure Olympic spots (a feat JSF has always loved), survive through local competitions, national qualifications, challengers, GP series... and made some concrete inroads in undermining Yuma's reputation. No small feat.

 

[KiraraChin]

edit: forgot to mention, I predict Kao on the podium...yup, now I've jinxed him...actually, I'm going for a reverse jinx

Wait, but if Kao podiums, there's no chance in hell they'll send Kazuki to the Olys, which means your predicted/desired scenario won't happen... Unless Kazuki is silver and Kao bronze, let's face it that ain't happening

 

[tsuyoboogie]

That's exactly what I think as well, and it would be the fairest scenario considering everything that happened so far this season.

Wait, but if Kao podiums, there's no chance in hell they'll send Kazuki to the Olys, which means your predicted/desired scenario won't happen... Unless Kazuki is silver and Kao bronze, let's face it that ain't happening

At the end of Kao's "official" Senior debut season (aka "Beauty and the Beast" season) I suddenly, for no reason got the feeling that he wasn't going to make the 2026 Olympic team
Not sure why that even came to mind and why I was so convinced but I couldn't avoid or alter the nagging feeling that something was going to keep him off the team (so far, on point)
I'd be very happy if he could experience the Olympics with Yuma and Shun but my greatest wish for him this season is to have a redemption WC

Not to mention, I would love to see Kazuki make the Olympic team...I really feel he deserves that

I think Kao will finish on the podium at Nats just above Kazuki but Kazuki will still be assigned Olys
Fair?...idk but it's what I feel will happen and if it does Kao will have to be okay with that
Kao will need to be Nats champ to go to Olys (this time)

Of course I could be totally wrong about everything proving I'm just a superstitious wacko