2025-26 Japanese Women's Figure Skating

[RafaelAstro]

GP spots is able to roughly inferred from SB list.
Within 24th surely have 2
25th to about 40+ have 1 and host GP/host pick/being in alternative list

So I think it will be like

Ami, Mone, Rion, Rinka, Mao and Saki: 2
Rino: likely 2
Haruna: 1 + host pick? if she choose to be senior
Mako: might be 1 if she continue
Yuna: might be 1 if she continue

Kaoruko, Hana, Yo and Ikura: 0
They have slight chance if selected to championships (Jr World/4CC) after Nationals.

How is Hana getting zero when she is far ahead in the world ranking? Yes, this hasn’t been her season, but Wakaba got her two assignments based on world ranking in the 2023–24 season even though she didn’t compete the prior season, same case with Rika Kihira in the 2022-23 season. Hana just needs to do better at Nationals.

 

[rabidline]

How is Hana getting zero when she is far ahead in the world ranking?

And other GP hosts would love to invite a "weaker" Japanese woman instead of anyone else with lower ranking but bigger scoring potential.

 

[denise3lz]

How is Hana getting zero when she is far ahead in the world ranking? Yes, this hasn’t been her season, but Wakaba got her two assignments based on world ranking in the 2023–24 season even though she didn’t compete the prior season, same case with Rika Kihira in the 2022-23 season. Hana just needs to do better at Nationals.

For 2026 GP selection. point from 2023-24 season is excluded and 2024-25 season is reduced to 70%.
I think Wakaba had enough point for 2023 GP selection from 2021-22 season including Olympics 4th finish while Hana didn't compete 2024-25 championships.
As for 2022 Rika, IIRC she used comeback rule.

ETA: One of 2023 GP for Wakaba was NHK. So Hana also can be invited for NHK as well.

 

[Jeanie19]

Idk, but with Kaori, Wakaba, Yuna, and Mai retiring, and Mao moving to seniors, we may expect this:

Mao Shimada – 2 assignments
Ami Nakai – 2 assignments
Mone Chiba – 2 assignments
Hana Yoshida – 2 assignments
Rion Sumiyoshi – 2 assignments
Rinka Watanabe – 2 assignments
Rino Matsuike – 2 assignments

Saki Miyake – 1/2 assignments?
Mako Yamashita – 1/2 assignments?
Mana Kawabe – 1 assignment?
Yo Takagi – 1 assignment?
Haruna Murakami – 1 assignment?

It doesn’t seem like we’re going to see the 18 maximum spots filled like in the last seasons, but idk.

Mai is retiring?

 

[Anna K.]

RE 2026-27 Grand Prix Quotas: It’s top 12 at Worlds, top 24 SB, and top 24 World ranking. National results have nothing to do with it.

Wait, wait, wait! Wasn't it that a good placement at Nationals secured a ticket to 4CC/Worlds (especially in the Olympic year when some top skaters may consider not going to Worlds)? Which is in turn a good chance to improve SB or qualify via the Worlds' quota?

GP spots is able to roughly inferred from SB list.
Within 24th surely have 2
25th to about 40+ have 1 and host GP/host pick/being in alternative list

So I think it will be like

Ami, Mone, Rion, Rinka, Mao and Saki: 2
Rino: likely 2
Haruna: 1 + host pick? if she choose to be senior
Mako: might be 1 if she continue
Yuna: might be 1 if she continue

Kaoruko, Hana, Yo and Ikura: 0
They have slight chance if selected to championships (Jr World/4CC) after Nationals.

I guess I agree with most of your post except I'd put Saki in line with Rino: likely 2 because the season is young and many international skaters will likely improve their SBs.

Haruna might choose 2 JGPs over 1 senior GP because it would give her more World ranking points. But there is that host pick question mark that may change everything.

 

[Jumping_Bean]

The Japanese skaters who would currently be guaranteed GPs if the season was already over are:

Top 24 Season's Best Score	Top 24 World Standing ("At the start of 2026/27")
1. Kaori Sakamoto (retirement)	1. Mone Chiba
2. Ami Nakai	2. Kaori Sakamoto (retirement)
3. Mone Chiba	11. Rinka Watanabe
4. Rion Sumiyoshi	13. Ami Nakai
8. Rinka Watanabe	16. Rino Matsuike
15. Mao Shimada	19. Rion Sumiyoshi
18. Mayuko Oka (ineligible for Seniors)	21. Mao Shimada
21. Saki Miyake	24. Hana Yoshida
24. Rino Matsuike

Saki & Rino are low enough to potentially fall outside the top 24 before the end of the season (unless they are picked for a Championship & outscore their current SB), and, while the World Standing list is generally still quite volatile at this point (with the Championships all still to take place), Hana seems likely to drop outside of the top 24.

From my observations, spots not filled by host-picks or skaters with guaranteed entries are usually chosen on the basis of the Season's best score list over the World standings list, so Saki is likely to get a GP spot even if she isn't in the top 24. The next eligible Japanese skater is down in 37th (Haruna Murakami), which is possibly enough - Depending, of course, on retirements, injuries and juniors moving up to seniors. At the start of this Olympic cycle, there were a lot of open spots due to the ban of the Russians, but that's not likely to repeat itself in the same order of magnitude.

 

[brblja]

Kaoruko, Hana, Yo and Ikura: 0
They have slight chance if selected to championships (Jr World/4CC) after Nationals.

Kaoruko won’t be age-eligible yet next season.

 

[denise3lz]

Kaoruko won’t be age-eligible yet next season.

https://www.isuresults.com/bios/isufs00113818.htm

Date of birth:​

13.05.2009

 

[brblja]

https://www.isuresults.com/bios/isufs00113818.htm

Date of birth:​

13.05.2009

Thanks! I think I got confused by her not getting out internationally the first two seasons.

 

[denise3lz]

Wait, wait, wait! Wasn't it that a good placement at Nationals secured a ticket to 4CC/Worlds (especially in the Olympic year when some top skaters may consider not going to Worlds)? Which is in turn a good chance to improve SB or qualify via the Worlds' quota?

A good placement at Nationals also give skaters chance to be in table of NHK host pick selection (2023 Yuna) and challenger Series selection (2025 Saki and 2022 Rinka).

Although it is not guaranteed.
In 2018 National Ayaka Hosoda landed 3 3As and placed 8th but no real international competition was given.

 

[Anna K.]

In 2018 National Ayaka Hosoda landed 3 3As and placed 8th but no real international competition was given.

Well, then there was covid, wasn't it?

 

[Joekaz]

Well, then there was covid, wasn't it?

I think it was that the Fed had no interest in her at all.

 

[RafaelAstro]

I think it was that the Fed had no interest in her at all.

She competed at a minor event thou

 

[Joekaz]

She competed at a minor event thou

Yes, but I believe she was 23 already and they didn't want to spend many resources on her. The problem with skating is that it is an individual sport, but it's controlled like a team sport.

 

[RafaelAstro]

Mai is retiring?

Actually, there isn't any information about her plans after this season. We just speculate that she may retire since she has not been in good form these last seasons, she lost her international assignments, she is dealing with her chronic disease, and Kaori who is her longtime friend and training partner will retire after this season. She is already 26 years old. She has been doing better lately, but it's a fact that many skaters retire after an Olympic season.

 

[RafaelAstro]

The junior ladies were fantastic in the short program, different styles but love each one

 

[throw_triple_flip]

I think something's going to have to seriously wrong for Ami, Kaori or Mone to not make the Olympic team at this point.

 

[RafaelAstro]

I think something's going to have to seriously wrong for Ami, Kaori or Mone to not make the Olympic team at this point.

I will wait until the free skate is done but if Ami and Mone ends 1-2 they will have an huge advantage for the Olympic selection

 

[YuBluByMe]

Yeah, we definitely need to wait until the GPF results are in first. After all, did anyone think that

Spoiler

Chiba will win the SP while Sakamoto ends up in fifth?

…But only to see how they stack up against each other and the American women. Will Chiba beat Sakamoto for the second time this season on home ice? Will Nakai beat Sakamoto again? Will Watanabe get on the podium? Will she beat any of the other Japanese women? Will there be a podium sweep? Will all four Japanese women beat Glenn?

But waiting for the free skates won’t reveal anything new about Olympic selection that we don’t already know. Unless my “math” is wrong, the pool at the end of GPF - and thus at the beginning of Nationals - will be Sakamoto, Chiba, Nakai, and Watanabe.

Unless someone other than those four wins who is senior eligible (i.e., not Shimada), this means the Olympic team is extremely highly likely to be among those four. And as I said in another post, Nakai is currently ahead of Watanabe in the selection criteria, but that can change if Watanabe is among the top two Japanese GPF competitors or she breaks into the top 3 SB.

No other Japanese lady did anything significant enough this season to be chosen for the Olympics over those among the top three even if they podium and one of them does not. And a few of them did so poorly on the GP circuit that they will not be chosen even with a podium finish.

 

[4Lo+3A+SEQ]

I still think if Rion medals at JNats, she’s going to the Olympics (unless there’s some crazy scenario where the other two medallists are also eligible and Kaori or Mone are off the podium) Japan nearly always sends their medallists, like in 2018 with Kaori over Wakaba despite Wakaba making GPF.