2025-26 Japanese Women's Figure Skating

[throw_triple_flip]

I’ve been thinking about this for a few weeks now and I hope they don’t use a switch for pairs. I haven’t done the math (yet), but I think Japan’s the only country that could challenge the US for team gold. Nagaoka/Moriguchi are very solid, but that doesn’t mean they should be used for the team event if Japan wants to go for the gold.

…but I understand the logic behind it. Japan isn’t in any real danger of losing a team medal; it’s the color of the medal that’s being fought for. Pairs being switched then means that women won’t be. And Japan actually doesn’t need to switch out women. The entire Japanese ladies Olympic team could beat either Liu-Glenn-Levito so if they’re not concentrating on the gold and focused on spreading the Olympic medals, then you pick the girl least likely to medal in the individual event to skate both segments.

See I wonder if it's possible that Miura and Kihara might want to split or even skip the team event. They are the bigger threat for an individual gold compared to the men. Doing 4 programs is a lot-could it risk their individual chances? Would JSF prefer an individual title over team?

 

[freedomlover]

It would be very deluded of the United States Team to not try and guarantee a team gold. Ilia skating both segments is one of those guarantees.

If Ilia does both, his individual event chances might get impacted.

Since Japan has the 2nd and 3rd highest SP SB this season, we might see them do Shun for a secured 2nd place in the Short and then Yuma in the free, who can rack up those PCS scores. If he does a 7 quad free skate in the TE and wins it for the US, but then loses out on the Individual because of that... Not sure.

 

[freedomlover]

See I wonder if it's possible that Miura and Kihara might want to split or even skip the team event. They are arguably bigger threat for an individual gold compared to the men. Doing 4 programs is a lot-could it risk their individual chances?

I mean no disrespect with this, but contrary to Malinin, M/K would do well to have skated both segments under Olympic pressure before the "main event" hits. Just my opinion.

 

[yfan1]

If Ilia does both, his individual event chances might get impacted.

Not at all. He can significantly tone the content down, and still win. He only needs 4 quads. Even if he needs 5, he can get away with doing the easiest 4 of his repertoire (one repeated + two 3As).

If he's really locking himself out of the LP, there's also a chance that he makes a mistake in the SP and therefore doesn't get the max score for his team for that segment. Then he'll need to compete in the LP anyway, or give up on team gold altogether.

 

[freedomlover]

Not at all. He can significantly tone the content down, and still win.

If he's really locking himself out of the LP, there's also a chance that he makes a mistake in the SP and therefore doesn't get the max score for his team for that segment. Then he'll need to compete in the LP anyway, or give up on team gold altogether.

How much is significantly? Because I'm not putting a 3 quad clean Ilia over a 3 quad clean Yuma, for example. And no means is that a disrespect towards him- but the most interesting aspect of his Free... are the quads, imo. Their explosiveess, the daring to go for such a layout. That's his whole thing.

Edit: You mentioned 4 quads, I've just seen that. With all due respect, even a 4 or 5 quad layout is nothing to sneeze at. Yes, he's great at them but even fore Ilia, that takes energy. His coaching team (he is with Raf too isn't he) have never let Nathan do both segments, and for good reason. Individual Gold matters- you don't know who might show up in the next quad. That Team Event can be won in 2030 too- they have promising junior ladies.

 

[freedomlover]

Just checked- there is no day of recovery between the men's short and Free, and two days after that, the individual events begin. No way Raf is letting him do that. And if he does- well I hope that everything goes well for him.

 

[throw_triple_flip]

I mean no disrespect with this, but contrary to Malinin, M/K would do well to have skated both segments under Olympic pressure before the "main event" hits. Just my opinion.

I doubt Malinin will do both segments in the team event. Let's be honest, the individual gold is the more desirable medal. And the USA may not need him to do both to win anyway. Japan has a much bigger achilles heel- ice dance.

 

[throw_triple_flip]

Not at all. He can significantly tone the content down, and still win. He only needs 4 quads. Even if he needs 5, he can get away with doing the easiest 4 of his repertoire (one repeated + two 3As).

If he's really locking himself out of the LP, there's also a chance that he makes a mistake in the SP and therefore doesn't get the max score for his team for that segment. Then he'll need to compete in the LP anyway, or give up on team gold altogether.

Doing a short program, then an "only" four quad free skate, then doing the same again with no break and more quads is going to be extremely taxing on any human being- even him. He is not superhuman and everybody has their limit.

And be honest- with fewer quads he can be caught. And if he pushes himself too much then the mistakes (maybe injuries) will start to creep in.

 

[freedomlover]

I doubt Malinin will do both segments in the team event. Let's be honest, the individual gold is the more desirable medal. And the USA may not need him to do both to win anyway. Japan has a much bigger achilles heel- ice dance.

Ice dance really is cursed for TJ. Japan needs to have a very good day- and despite what happened at the GPF, I think the best Team might be

SP- Chiba
Free- Sakamoto
SP- Kagiyama
Free- Sato
Pairs: M/K

and then for Ice Dance whoever gets sent. All of the skaters mentioned would need to have stellar skates and then hope for Team USA to drop points against Canada or the Georgians. But I heard Ice Dance might get split for them too, so who knows, really.

 

[yfan1]

Doing a short program, then "only" four quad free skate, then doing the same with no break and more big jumps is going to be taxing on any human being- even him.

Sure, never said it would be 0% taxing. Just less taxing. He is an Olympic athlete. In the past skaters used to skate an entire qualifying round with full content...

It's not like it's not been done. Just last time, Kondratyuk and Jin did both segments - Jin even went almost clean in the individuals, despite needing surgery. Malinin is fitter right now than that, and is hoping to peak in February, I presume.

Anyway, there's time for them to decide. It should at the least depend on how the SP plays out in each discipline.

And be honest- with fewer quads he can be caught.

Don't agree here - he'll be heading in as three time GPF winner, two time world champ, multiple US Champ.

 

[yfan1]

Individual Gold matters- you don't know who might show up in the next quad. That Team Event can be won in 2030 too- they have promising junior ladies.

'Course individual gold matters, he might not get it next time, who knows who'll show up. Which is exactly why he needs that TE gold this season too - who knows if he can still pull of all tech content with ease as he does know, or have the reputation of being the most visible male skater as he is now, or have all his accolades as he does now.

 

[RafaelAstro]

This is getting out of topic

 

[Remilia]

For the record, Ilia has already stated that he'd want to the sp in the team event and that he wouldn't do both segments.
But yes, this is off topic, so about the actual Japanese women, I imagine they'd have Mone do the short and Kaori the long. Ami has higher scoring potential than Mone, but the 3A is too inconsistent and Mone's lowest sp score this season is higher than Ami's lowest.

 

[RafaelAstro]

Last time, the top two at Nationals competed in the team event, Kaori did the long program and Wakaba the short, so we may see the same case here. If Ami places first or second at Nationals, she will compete in the team event; if not, then it would be Mone. Kaori is a lock for me, simply because I don’t see her failing to win or at least finish second at Nationals, so she is almost guaranteed to participate in the team event.

 

[SnowWhite]

Yeah, that was the start of JSF having an official pre-Nationals announcement on which skaters are already in the selection pool before Nationals. Obviously people who crunch the numbers have figured it out earlier like how it's listed above, but I think having JSF acknowledging it publicly helps them be more consistent in how they make their selection. (And their post-selection press conference became a lot more substantive than just "prioritizing the youth" lol).

4CC selection has a wider net, but one thing that usually gets underacknowledged is the top skaters who did well at Nationals do have a say in that assignment. So some of the selections happen not because JSF wants a different team for 4CC and Olympics/Worlds (except during COVID because they had mandatory quarantine period at that time) but simply because the top skaters requested to be taken out from 4CC selection. On the other side, top skaters at Nationals can request to get sent to 4CC and also assigned to Worlds, meaning there's one less spot at 4CC for others. I have seen more fans saying "well A, B, C should go to Olys and D, E, F should go to 4CC" and... that may not be the case (especially if the Olympic first-timers want another big warm up competition to boost their reputation and standings).

This season 4CCs is from Jan 21-25th. The women finish their FS on the evening of the 23rd. There's also a gala on the evening of the 25th. The Olympic Opening Ceremony is on the 6th of February. For the team event, the women's SP is Feb 6th, and the FS is Feb 8th. The individual women's SP is the 17th and FS is the 19th.

It's not bad for a woman who doesn't skate in the team event, especially if they aren't going to the Opening Ceremony. It's close enough between 4CCs and the team event that doing both would seem like not the best idea to me.* Two weeks is fine on the GP, but for the Olympics it would be a lot. Satoko (SP) and Kaori (FS) did do both in 2018, but the gap between the women's FS at 4CCs and the team event women's SP was two days longer then, so slightly better. And IIRC it's become more common since for some of Japan's top skaters to not go to 4CCs.

So I could see one of the women on the Olympic team going to 4CCs, but two would surprise me somewhat (under the assumption that Japan will split the women in the team event).

 

[Anna K.]

I guess this is the right thread to say a few words about the girls who did not make it to the J-Nats free skate. Normally it should have been "good job, come back stronger" to all of them... But then there is Hana Yoshida

Hana was having a bad season but now it's becoming just tragic. What's next? Will she lose next year's GP assignment? If so, it will be very hard to fight back.
I am not ready to lose her. She has such a cool personality and her programs are always interesting to watch

Sae Shimizu is... It's just heartache
For two years, she invested in pairs skating only to discover that it was not her thing. Now, this is another blow to her confidence.
At least, there is some light at the end of the tunnel because she has been cast for the next edition of Kassuoya. I really like it because imo she has a potential to become a great performer.

The third girl is Miai Mori. I never knew she existed. It was a nice surprise. What a body complexion, light and airy, like an elf on ice! I really liked her short program and I started looking forward to watching her long... Which just didn't happen because she screwed up her combo
I understand though that this is her All Japan debut. Hopefully, it will motivate her rather then upset her. I hope so because I really want to see more of her.

 

[rabidline]

Maria Egawa is retiring, she'll be working as a pro skater for the cruise ship Utopia of the Seas next April:

 

[lileychristie]

Maria Egawa is retiring, she'll be working as a pro skater for the cruise ship Utopia of the Seas next April

Awww that is bittersweet. Sad that we won't see her skating in competition again, but pro skating job in a cruise ship sounds amazing!!

I hope she keeps performing her signature tornado layback during her shows

 

[rabidline]

Awww that is bittersweet. Sad that we won't see her skating in competition again, but pro skating job in a cruise ship sounds amazing!!

I hope she keeps performing her signature tornado layback during her shows

The cruise ship pro skater pipeline in Japan has lowkey been interesting to observe, ahaha. Taichiro Yamakuma's also been working on Utopia and Stars of the Seas after his retirement (doing 3As on ship rinks!) and so I wonder if he's the one passing on the word to Maria since they're both from Meiji University.

I think it's a very good opportunity to grab while Maria is still pretty healthy and doing very well.

 

[Anna K.]

Didn't Maria already retire a few years ago, then returned?
I'm not sure though. I might confuse her with Marin Honda.