The three best at Worlds will be given 2 events each so that, in theory, sews up the gold medals. There are six silver medals to give out. Two will go to Kostner (if Rochette is in the gold sector) That leaves 4 silver to fill. Where and Who.
Think Meier, Yokuri, Suguri, Ando, Lepisto.
Throw in Cynthia, Jenni V. Kira Korpi, and what can the magic number be to make the Finals? 2 Bronze medals = 22 points. Enough?
I think what I ought to say is, I don't have any idea what might happen and I will just have to wait and see.
But going by last year, I think your analysis is right on the money. The top six at 2008 Worlds were Asada, Kostner, Kim, Rochette, Nakano and Meier. Except for Meier, these six pretty much swept everything and (with Ando in the place of Meier) left everyone else fighting over the crumbs.
Last year it took a silver and a bronze for the last two skaters (Nakano and Ando) to make the finals. The first alternate (Suguri) also had a silver and a bronze. I expect it will take the same this year to make the finals.
By the way, Suzuki took one of the silvers out of play by getting second place at NHK. This was her only event.
But if you don't care about Americans making the Final. That's ok with me. I only want them to be in the Finals if they deserve to be. My point is that if the Feds have anything to say about who in what choices, they may be playing the strategy game whether you want to or not. Some care about the GPs.
I would love to know the ins and outs of whatever strategizing goes on in the smoke-filled back rooms of the USFSA and their counterparts. maybe someone will write a tell-all book one day.
I hope I didn't give the impression that
I don't care about the GPs. I just meant that NBC TV does not seem to.
I think competitive skaters will look at SA as an easy event.
I think it is impossible to guess. Last year, Skate America was the toughest event. But not because of the American skaters. It was because anyone who wanted to win there had to face Kim, Nakano and Ando.
In contrast, at the Cup of Russia the top guns were Kostner and Suguri. This did give the Americans at the event (Flatt, Czisny and Meissner) a fighting chance, but only Rachael was able to seize the opportunity.
To me, the bottom line is, the U.S. had better come up with a legit podium threat quick or risk a further loss of interest going into the 2010 Olympics. If I had to place only one bet, I think my money would go on Caroline Zhang.
I do, however, think we will get a clue as to which three horses the USFSA is betting on by who they choose to showcase at Skate America.
