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[Mathman]

Next year's Skate America is supposed to be the big Olympic tie-in. Part of the deal with NBC television was that USFS would get Skate America moved to the end of the GP series instead of the beginning. Best for USFS/NBC would be to get whichever ladies eventually make the U.S. Olympic team. I believe that making a lot of noise at Skate America is more important to the USFSA next year than trying to get skaters into the GP final.

Impossible to guess at this time. But think they would be short sighted if they did not invite Caroline Zhang.

 

[Joesitz (RIP)]

Much too early to discuss next year's Skate America. Wait until after the Japan cheesefest in April. And a word to the USFS, stop putting the top American skaters in the SA to beat one another and lose points for the Finals Spread the best around the contests. There will be first rate Japanese skaters who train in the US who will probably be at SA too, and who will offer tough competition. There is some strategy to all this and putting all the best in one basket just doesn't work regardless of what posters say about it. Bottom Line: It's the Final that counts. I'm sure YuNa will stick with SC.

I suppose NBC will not show any other GP segments and only the Final if an American is in it. One must rely on other sources for LIVE action. Hope IN has fixed it's problems.

 

[Alicja]

I'm guessing whoever wins JW this year or Flatt.

If I didn't know better judging from your post I'd think that JW is a competition somewhere in the US where exclusively American skaters compete....

 

[Trewyn]

^^ I was thinking the same thing! It sounds like it's a given that an American will win that competition... I agree it's quite likely, though .

 

[HCOSurfer]

It's true though. Are there any other skaters going to JW that can compete with Ashley and Caroline given that they don't completely implode?

 

[Wrlmy]

It's true though. Are there any other skaters going to JW that can compete with Ashley and Caroline given that they don't completely implode?

Elene Gedevanishivili

 

[Mathman]

Bottom Line: It's the Final that counts. I'm sure YuNa will stick with SC.

I don't think the USFSA sees it this way. To them, it's not the GP Final that counts, it's the Olympics.

 

[Joesitz (RIP)]

I don't think the USFSA sees it this way. To them, it's not the GP Final that counts, it's the Olympics.

Nonsense. The USFS and NBC want winners leading up to the Finals for the Olys. Prestige for the USFS and Ratings for NBC.

They will not get this if they follow the advice of posters who claim let all the top skaters skate at SA instead of spreading them around to get points. Remember last GP Finals - No American Ladies..

The podium of this years' Worlds (think no Amerian Ladies) will be spread around the 6 GP events. We had no problem in the other disciplines. So at least don't have the Ladies competing with each other.

 

[champs]

Neither Czisny nor Zhang skated at SA and neither of them made it to the final, so I don't see the point.

Also, does NBC care to broadcast the next GPF? At least they didn't this season.

 

[Mathman]

Nonsense. The USFS and NBC want winners leading up to the Finals for the Olys. Prestige for the USFS and Ratings for NBC.

I don't agree. NBC does not broadcast the Grand Prix Finals, so getting an American into them cannot increase NBC ratings in the slightest.

What NBC cares about is building up audience interest in the Olympics. They have two shots at it -- Skate America and U.S. Nationals. Those are the two pre-Olympic events that NBC is putting its money on. U.S. television networks have never given a hoot about the other five GP events or the finals, or the Nebelhorn Trophy.

I do agree that USFSA and NBC want winners at Skate America. That is why I think they will pick the ladies that they want to promote for the Olympic team. There problem is that, unlike previous Olympic years, it is impossible to know in advance just which ladies they should be pushing.

Anyway, it will be interesting. I think they will go with Alissa, Rachael and Caroline. It will be just like last year's Skate America, when they chose what they figured was their strongest line-up of Kimmie, Rachael and Mirai.

The USFSA -- for better or for worse -- has always tried to seed a strong Skate America event. Send your best and the devil take the hindmost. They have never played the "strategy" game of trying to sneak skaters into the finals by sending them to weak events just to pick up points.

 

[Joesitz (RIP)]

I
I do agree that USFSA and NBC want winners at Skate America. That is why I think they will pick the ladies that they want to promote for the Olympic team. There problem is that, unlike previous Olympic years, it is impossible to know in advance just which ladies they should be pushing.

and Japan will send Mao, Yukari, and Fumie, or in case of no Mao, YuNa will be there. It could work out whoever the USFS' best team would be will wind up 4th, 5th and sixth. So forget the Finals. If they are the best, it doesn't look good for the Olympics.

The USFSA -- for better or for worse -- has always tried to seed a strong Skate America event. Send your best and the devil take the hindmost. They have never played the "strategy" game of trying to sneak skaters into the finals by sending them to weak events just to pick up points.

That is my whole point in saying they should. However, if you believe the show is the thing, then that's entertainment - not Sports.

 

[Mathman]

and Japan will send Mao, Yukari, and Fumie, or in case of no Mao, YuNa will be there.

Well, federations don't send skaters to Skate America, the USFSA invites them. So I suppose if the USFSA is afraid of Mao Asada and wants to improve the American ladies' chances, they could just not invite Asada.

(I think they did that two years ago when the choice was between Asada, Kim, and Ando and the USFSA chose Ando as being the one that Kimmie Meissner had the best chance against. I am not sure about this, though. Maybe Skate America was last in the draw and Asada and Kim had already been chosen for other events.)

On the other hand, every event has one of the top three skaters in the world and one from 4-6. So you can't escape competition by sending your girls somewhere else. Asada, Nakano and Suguri could all wind up at Trophee Eric Bompard just as easily as at Skate America, knocking the American girls off the podium there, too.

I don't really see any point in trying to shuffle the deck so that your best skater can get a fourth place at Cup of China and a fifth place at NHK.

That is my whole point in saying they should. However, if you believe the show is the thing, then that's entertainment - not Sports.

I think the original question was, "what strategy is best for ratings for NBC."

But if you want to change the question to, "what shows the best sportsmanship, I think taking on all comers is better sport than running away and hiding because you are afraid to skate against the Japanese ladies.

The best sport is the best show.

JMO.

 

[Tonichelle]

gotta agree with MM's view of NBC's outlook. They couldn't care less what happens in the GP series outside of Skate America... it's like the others don't even exist.

Notice the only things they plan to cover are in the US save for the Olympics... they don't call them the National Broadcasting Company for nothing.

 

[feraina]

The USFSA -- for better or for worse -- has always tried to seed a strong Skate America event. Send your best and the devil take the hindmost. They have never played the "strategy" game of trying to sneak skaters into the finals by sending them to weak events just to pick up points.

Well, right now, there are so many talented American ladies that it would be very hard to play this game in any sensible way. As noted before, Alissa and Caroline didn't compete at SA and did win bronze medals at other events. If USFSA had swapped one or both them to SA, they might not have won their bronzes, and the girls swapped out are not guaranteed bronze or better anyway. USFSA has three spots to fill at SA, should they purposely fill them with the "lesser" skaters (on the presumption that they wouldn't qualify for GPF anyway)? Like whom anyway, Ashley, Mirai, and Kimmie? How insulting is that! For everyone involved. Best to send the strongest team based on National's, as they've done in recent years.

I think Mao, Yu-na, and Joannie are clear front-runners for World's this year. Just look at the Season's Best:
http://www.isufs.org/isujsstat/sb2008-09/sbtslto.htm
I'd be very surprised if it was otherwise. So at least only one of them would be invited to SA next year (not Mao + Joannie, which has been a formidable combination in GP events in recent years, as Caroline can testify).

The next three will probably be Carolina, Miki, and Fumie (maybe Laura instead). Given the inconsistency of this group, I think the American girls will have a good chance at silver, certainly bronze at SA next year.

BTW, from the SB list, it looks like Caroline should win it hands down, with Ashley a clear second, and then one of the Japanese girls for bronze. On paper anyway. But in practice, I think Ashley will prove a strong challenge for Caroline. If Ashley skates the SP that she's capable of, she'll likely lead after the SP.

 

[Joesitz (RIP)]

Thank you Feraina -

MM - There are probably no major Lady skaters in the US today, (JMO). It's anyone's game. If we do not consider Jr. and Sr Worlds this season, any 3 for SA next year is fine now.

The three best at Worlds will be given 2 events each so that, in theory, sews up the gold medals. There are six silver medals to give out. Two will go to Kostner (if Rochette is in the gold sector) That leaves 4 silver to fill. Where and Who?
Think Meier, Yokuri, Suguri, Ando, Lepisto.

Throw in Cynthia, Jenni V. Kira Korpi, and what can the magic number be to make the Finals? 2 Bronze medals = 22 points. Enough?

But if you don't care about Americans making the Final. That's ok with me. I only want them to be in the Finals if they deserve to be. My point is that if the Feds have anything to say about who in what choices, they may be playing the strategy game whether you want to or not. Some care about the GPs.

Anyway, I was a bit rash in suggesting that the USFS place their 3 top ladies in different events to come up with bronze medals and hopefully by luch a silver.
There really are no top ladies in the USFS at this time. JMO.

I think competitive skaters will look at SA as an easy event.

 

[Mathman]

The three best at Worlds will be given 2 events each so that, in theory, sews up the gold medals. There are six silver medals to give out. Two will go to Kostner (if Rochette is in the gold sector) That leaves 4 silver to fill. Where and Who.

Think Meier, Yokuri, Suguri, Ando, Lepisto.

Throw in Cynthia, Jenni V. Kira Korpi, and what can the magic number be to make the Finals? 2 Bronze medals = 22 points. Enough?

I think what I ought to say is, I don't have any idea what might happen and I will just have to wait and see.

But going by last year, I think your analysis is right on the money. The top six at 2008 Worlds were Asada, Kostner, Kim, Rochette, Nakano and Meier. Except for Meier, these six pretty much swept everything and (with Ando in the place of Meier) left everyone else fighting over the crumbs.

Last year it took a silver and a bronze for the last two skaters (Nakano and Ando) to make the finals. The first alternate (Suguri) also had a silver and a bronze. I expect it will take the same this year to make the finals.

By the way, Suzuki took one of the silvers out of play by getting second place at NHK. This was her only event.

But if you don't care about Americans making the Final. That's ok with me. I only want them to be in the Finals if they deserve to be. My point is that if the Feds have anything to say about who in what choices, they may be playing the strategy game whether you want to or not. Some care about the GPs.

I would love to know the ins and outs of whatever strategizing goes on in the smoke-filled back rooms of the USFSA and their counterparts. maybe someone will write a tell-all book one day.

I hope I didn't give the impression that I don't care about the GPs. I just meant that NBC TV does not seem to.

I think competitive skaters will look at SA as an easy event.

I think it is impossible to guess. Last year, Skate America was the toughest event. But not because of the American skaters. It was because anyone who wanted to win there had to face Kim, Nakano and Ando.

In contrast, at the Cup of Russia the top guns were Kostner and Suguri. This did give the Americans at the event (Flatt, Czisny and Meissner) a fighting chance, but only Rachael was able to seize the opportunity.

To me, the bottom line is, the U.S. had better come up with a legit podium threat quick or risk a further loss of interest going into the 2010 Olympics. If I had to place only one bet, I think my money would go on Caroline Zhang.

I do, however, think we will get a clue as to which three horses the USFSA is betting on by who they choose to showcase at Skate America.

 

[Joesitz (RIP)]

^^^
Much better and clearer raionale. Toni will always agree with you, and now I will too on choosing the right US gals for SA.

Back to Junior Worlds. I'm with Ptichka on this. There should be an age limit, and a proviso that if a junior skaters skates in Seniors, he/she should remain in Seniors for life.

Pick your choice: Brezina, Amodio or Rippon all of whom have skated seniors.
However, it does make for a more interesting match.

 

[Medusa]

Well, Amodio was only a senior during French Nationals, the French Federation had him doing the Junior Circuit again (and what a success it was so far), and despite Amodio beating Préaubert at Nationals, they sent Préaubert to Euros. So Amodio has never started at an international senior event. I think it was Amodio's fourth time at Senior Nationals.

I honestly don't care what they do at their own Nationals (after Joe's rationale the two Russian girls who made 1 and 2 at Russian Nationals wouldn't be allowed to start among the juniors once they are age-eligible - but would have to wait till they turn 16 and then start as seniors right away).

 

[Tammi]

I imagine that the rules are in place to accommodate countries that may not have the depth of others. Unfortunately, because some countries have a much deeper field, there's no way to keep it fair across the board. Countries could police themselves with stricter guidelines for selections, but everyone wants to maximize the number of JGP spots for their up and coming juniors. Maybe more critical at this years JW's because the number of JGP events have been reduced for the 2009/2010 season. For the US, that could translate to 2 promising Juniors not being able to get any international experience next season.

I'm not in agreement with lowering the age, because it could ultimately punish some countries and those skaters that were age eligible to skate JGP all season, but are deemed too old for JW's.

 

[Mathman]

^ But it would be easy to modify the age limit rule by saying that anyone who is old enough to skate in ISU championships (16) and has participated in senior ISU events, can't then go back to juniors.