Reposting my calculations from the Johnny's Angels Message Board(and may I mention I love how GoldenSkate breaks paragraphs automatically?
)
He's currently third in the standings behind Oda and Joubert, with 22 points and and overall score total of 416.25, lower than Voronov and Rippon's totals, which doesn't bode well for any score tiebreakers. He would need for less than four people to pass him and there are currently seven men who could theoretically do it:
Evan & Tomas: Both competing at Skate America, which around 30 points more from their first event than Johnny had going into his second, and with relatively little competition at their second event I suspect-unless Tomas has one of his meltdowns-that they will take the top two spots in some order and in.
Micheal Brezina: Competing at Skate Canada, would need at least silver. It should be noted at this point that the field there's kind of stacked, but hey, so was this one, so he might do it. But there's
Daisuke Takahashi & Samuel Contesti: Also must win at least silver, and with decent scores. Now we see all three of the above mentioned cannot pass him, because there's only two spots with which to do it. Reduce number of possible men passing Johnny to six. Then throw in
Jeremy Abbott & Kevin van der Perran: Must win Skate Canada. Then they would pass him automatically as 1st and 5th trumps 2nd and 4th. But as we've seen, there are already three guys cluttering up the top two spots, and they'd knock out of them out. In short, the most amount of men that can pass Johnny at Skate Canada is two. Reduce number of possible men passing Johnny to four.
So in short, the worst Johnny can do is 1st alternate, and that's only is Patrick Chan doesn't make the top two at Skate Canada, and then if it's Jeremy or KVDP winning silver there he's still in. It'll be interesting to see how Patrick recovers from his thigh injury; it could be the deciding factor.
Whether Johnny wants to make another trip to Japan, though, is another question all together.
He'd better talk to his choreographers soon.
