What would have happened...Asada in 2006 Oly?

[Blades of Passion]

That comparison is not quite correct, IMO.

Evan knows that if he skates cleanly, he will win against most other competitors with the same jump layout.

This wasn't the case for Arakawa. I think you have to ask "what will the other competitor be most likely to achieve". With Slutskaya, that was a 6-Triple program. Slutskaya had a very strong year and did a 6-Triple program at every previous competition. She did well in the SP and she was known as a consistent skater.

Arakawa really did play it safe. She didn't try to beat Slutskaya. She went out there to win Silver and knew a clean, less difficult skate might still possibly win her Gold. She had to depend on a mistake from Slutskaya for that, though.

 

[Mathman]

According to the practice reports, Shuzuka was the only one landing triple-triples all week. At game time, her plan was to do only one triple-triple instead of two. At least, that is what both she and her coach said afterward.

She also planned not to double her solo loop. If everything had gone according to plan she would have come up to seven triples. This program had a good chance of beating Slutskaya, with 6 triples and no triple-triple, even if Slutskaya had skated better than she had in practices..

 

[Blades of Passion]

Objectively, yes, Arakawa should have beaten Slutskaya by a fair amount if they had the same jump content.

"Dueness", though. Slutskaya skated what was her weakest performance in 2 years and was still only marked a little lower than Arakawa on PCS.

 

[antmanb]

Sorry, but if I was coaching Shiz I would have kept her LP the way she skated it.

Based on Irina's two previous Olympic performances would it be necessary for Shiz to take more risk than - as ant suggested - taking her best shot at a clean performance?

I miss Irina, admired her greatly - but all three of her Olympic performances never approached what she had shown in lesser events. Bad luck, nerves, health, etc. many factors could have contributed.

Why would Shiz be intimadated to the point of adding more risk based on Irina?
And Shiz managed to skate well enough to make it necessary for Irina to be very good that evening.

Had Shiz failed on a 3x3 that night the Gold medal might have gone to Sasha or opened a window for a slighlty better Irina.

Again (!) i completely disagree - hind sight is a wonderful thing and we, of course know how Irina skated in 2006 so it's difficult to not be influenced by that.

In reality looking at LPs Irina put out a blinder in 1998* (she fell on or doubled the triple Lutz in the SP) but IIRC she had 7 triples in her LP including a 3t/3t combination (which is another reason why for me Nagano is by far and away the best Olympic ladies competition ever!), so before taking the ice in SLC she'd had one fantastic LP at the Olympics and one flawed LP, that wasn't a disaster, simply a fall.

But given that those Olympics were four and eight years away respectively, you'd have to have your eye on the GP leading up to it, and Irina had laid herself out as unstoppable (except maybe by Mao who wasn't there).

Shiz was skating like the winner in practice all week, throwing out 3/3/3 combinations she knew she wouldn't do in the LP (or she'd Zayak herself out!), reminiscent of Curry in 1976 perhaps? In any event, the way was practising made it clear the 3/3s were not a problem, they weren't that big a risk and she knew she needed them to beat Irina.

* lest we forget - Shiz was also in Nagano, also showed a 3/3 (i think) but was down in 13th!

Ant

 

[janetfan]

Again (!) i completely disagree - hind sight is a wonderful thing and we, of course know how Irina skated in 2006 so it's difficult to not be influenced by that.

In reality looking at LPs Irina put out a blinder in 1998* (she fell on or doubled the triple Lutz in the SP) but IIRC she had 7 triples in her LP including a 3t/3t combination (which is another reason why for me Nagano is by far and away the best Olympic ladies competition ever!), so before taking the ice in SLC she'd had one fantastic LP at the Olympics and one flawed LP, that wasn't a disaster, simply a fall.

But given that those Olympics were four and eight years away respectively, you'd have to have your eye on the GP leading up to it, and Irina had laid herself out as unstoppable (except maybe by Mao who wasn't there).

Shiz was skating like the winner in practice all week, throwing out 3/3/3 combinations she knew she wouldn't do in the LP (or she'd Zayak herself out!), reminiscent of Curry in 1976 perhaps? In any event, the way was practising made it clear the 3/3s were not a problem, they weren't that big a risk and she knew she needed them to beat Irina.

* lest we forget - Shiz was also in Nagano, also showed a 3/3 (i think) but was down in 13th!

Ant

Thanks for such good analysis ant and for pointing out Irina's performance at '98 - which was not bad as I had suggested - she was simply beaten by a great field that evening.
Below is a link to an article that offers some satirical comments with a different pov.

"Shizuka Arakawa, Japan: This ice princess was as cool as the other side of the pillow. She deserved the standing ovation she received following a flowing and graceful gold-medal performance. Also, her two-tone Mulan-looking outfit was the best ensemble of the night."

BTW, which skater was Shiz so worried about knocking her off the podium? Kimmie? Caro? Miki? Kiira? Emily? Fumi?

Anything is possible, but I think when Shiz skated her thoughts were on Irina and not the others.

mathman's comments seem to explain what went down that night
but so do yours. For me, with equal jumps, etc, I would have placed Shiz first because her skating just seemd more beautiful than Irina's. That is just my opinion and others may see it differently.

http://www.tvguide.com/news/Olympics-Womens-Figure-59215.aspx

ETA: Here are the top 10 and I see a very big gap between 1st and 4th.
Does this support anything other than the fact that Shiz was skating better than the others?
Maybe it hints that her battle plan was not to avoid slipping off the podium but to skate well enough to contend for the top spot.
I guess Shiz only won by luck - or another point would be that she seized the moment and outskated her chief rivals, Sasha and Irina and won the OGM.

Rank Name Nation Total Points SP FS
1 Arakawa, ShizukaShizuka Arakawa Japan 191.34 3 1
2 Cohen, SashaSasha Cohen United States 183.36 1 2
3 Slutskaya, IrinaIrina Slutskaya Russia 181.44 2 3
4 Suguri, FumieFumie Suguri Japan 175.23 4 4
5 Rochette, JoannieJoannie Rochette Canada 167.27 9 5
6 Meissner, KimmieKimmie Meissner United States 165.71 5 6
7 Hughes, EmilyEmily Hughes United States 160.87 7 7
8 Meier, SarahSarah Meier Switzerland 156.13 10 8
9 Kostner, CarolinaCarolina Kostner Italy 153.50 11 9
10 Gedevanishvili, EleneElene Gedevanishvili Georgia 151.46 6 13