What would have happened...Asada in 2006 Oly?

[Mathman]

About pressure, often the young kids can handle it better than the more experienced skaters. Probably because they don't know any better, so they just go out and skate. (Tara, for instance.)

Fumie might not have won Japanese Nationals if Arakawa was in danger. The positions of the Japanese nationals, magically ensured that the team memembers Japan wanted to send to the Olympics automatically got to go to the Olympics.

Yeah, as I recall the big scandal at Japanese nationals was placing Onda (4th) ahead of Nakano (5th), which somehow or other was the only way that Ando (6th) would get enough points to make the team. Something like that. Oh, what a tangled web we weave.

 

[prettykeys]

About pressure, often the young kids can handle it better than the more experienced skaters. Probably because they don't know any better, so they just go out and skate. (Tara, for instance.)

Exactly. This is considered especially true in Gymnastics. The kids aren't thinking "omg this is my last Olympics, I need to perform." The younger gymnasts are considered to have the psychological advantage.

 

[bekalc]

About pressure, often the young kids can handle it better than the more experienced skaters. Probably because they don't know any better, so they just go out and skate. (Tara, for instance.)

I don't think that's true. If it's true that why did Plushenko implode at 1998 Worlds? Why did he implode at 2002 Olympics. Instead of being better under pressure as a younger athlete, he got better as he was older. You cannot look at Plushenko's career and argue anything differently.

In gymnastics the first time Carly Patterson (Goodwill Games are something like that) went up against Khorkina, she imploded under the pressure of being in the lead at the final rotation I believe.

Lilia Podkapayeva hardly had a great debut at Worlds when she debuted in 1993 (and earlier in her career she was known as being inconsistent...) But then the girl got to be the first one since Tourischeva to win the Olympics as reigning world champion. Nobody's done it sense...

It depends on the athlete, but I think its ridiculous to say youngsters don't feel pressure... And I think especting a young athlete with no major competition experience and placing them pressure to win the Olympics, would be huge. Mao imploded at Junior Worlds that year, and we think the Olympics would be a piece of cake for her?? Even Tara Lipinski, had a mess up in the short program at HER first worlds.

And as for the whole Tara didn't feel pressure at the Olympics. I find that so insulting. I know I believe it was Susie Wynn commented once that she disagreed with this. She noted that Tara had one of the hardest work ethics in the sport. And she felt that it translated into Tara being prepared and ready when it came to the moment of Truth.

In fact I remember after the long program, Richard C commenting on how he never saw someone handle pressure like that. Clearly Tara's coach, felt Tara was feeling pressure. And I think he would know that more than people, many who were looking to take away from Tara's win.

 

[Mathman]

Then why did Mao completely implode in 2006 Junior Worlds?

Mao did OK at 2006 junior Worlds. She won her qualifying group (outpointing Kim, the winner of the other group.) She did OK in the short, only missing on her attempted triple Axel combination (!) The long wasn't her best. Why? Stuff happens. Maybe she got nervous.

I remember Richard C praised Tara in the Kiss and Cry, saying he never saw anyone handle pressure like that.

That's what I should have said. Young people tend to handle the pressure better. Possibly because they don't dwell on it so much.

 

[Blades of Passion]

Mao's 3axel was SLIGHLTLY doublefooted. And her 3toe in her double axel/3toe was called underrotated. although she did have a 3flip/3loop in there...

I wouldn't have given the 3Axel -GOE. Her free leg slightly brushed the ice but it was a gorgeous jump. A very difficult entrance and excellent height/rotation.

Nor would I have called the 3Toe underrotated. Tech callers have a habit of always downgrading a jump if it's on the border when there are other problems with the landing.

Mao's programs in '07 and '08 are the most technically ambitious we've ever seen to date from a female.

 

[bekalc]

That's what I should have said. Young people tend to handle the pressure better. Possibly because they don't dwell on it so much.

And you know this because you can read the minds of young athletes. I think I just provided plenty of examples of young athletes who were inconsistent when they were young but got more consistent as they were older. There are examples otherways around.

I suspect some of the issue isn't that a 14 year old can't feel pressure. But a lot of it is that a lot of times younger athletes get to be underdogs. And it's different when nobody's expecting great performances out of you, and you aren't necessarily expecting to win either. It's different no matter how old you are.

But I just think the whole Tara felt less pressure is ridiculous. Now yes maybe Tara didn't have the media telling her she could win if she just skated clean etc. But we don't know what kind of pressure Tara wasn't putting on herself. She was only two years younger than Michelle-and Michelle could absolutely tell herself that she had another Olympics in her too. She was at least expected to medal/skate well. And Tara herself clearly wasn't willing to just settle down and let Michelle win.

I mean Tara's reaction to skating clean was the same as Michelle's-she started crying...

If anything I think that maybe being the underdog maybe just made Tara work harder. I know that I was reading an article and they said that everyday after Practice on the Olympic ice. Tara would ask to see the videotapes of her practice. She was the only skater who asked for this. She'd see the videotapes, consult with Sandra Bezik etc....She was determined to milk EVERYTHING she could that girl. And I'm not even a fan, but it ticks me of to see her win discredited. Which is what it does when people say Tara didn't feel pressure.

When I think some of the issue was that perhaps the Kwan team played it TOO safe.

 

[Tinymavy15]

She would have won the olympics and probably worlds as well. Kimmie would have never been world champ, the Japanese would have gone 1,2 at the olympics and maybe Shizuka would not have retired. Irina would not have medaled.

Sure, there would be a little bit of pressure for Mao in 2006, but nothing like now. It was her first season, nobody was expecting anything spectacular. The reigning olympic champion was not Japanese and she would have had no Yu-na to worry about.

 

[bekalc]

She would have won the olympics and probably worlds as well. Kimmie would have never been world champ, the Japanese would have gone 1,2 at the olympics and maybe Shizuka would not have retired. Irina would not have medaled.

Sure, there would be a little bit of pressure for Mao in 2006, but nothing like now. It was her first season, nobody was expecting anything spectacular. The reigning olympic champion was not Japanese and she would have had no Yu-na to worry about.

If Mao went in as reigning GPF champion, she absolutely would have a TON of pressure on her. Heck she would have been under huge amounts of pressure in the GP circuit. Shizuka mentioned that she was jealous of Mao on the GP event because Mao had no pressure. Shiz was worried about medaling placing in the GP because it would affect whether she made the Olympic team. Mao didn't have to worry about this one at all. Asada-goes to the Olympic as GPF champion-she's got TONS of pressure. And seriously once again-she didn't even with Junior Worlds that year.

As for no Yu-na to worry about, that's not true. IF Mao was eligible for the Olympics, Yu-na would have been too. In fact one of the strongest reasons the ISU didn't change the rules was because of Yu-na's case.

IF your going to make an age exception-it has to be for all. Korea was operating under the assumption that Yu-na couldn't go to the Olympics. So they sent her to the JGP and didn't send her to the Olympic qualfier. Yu-na would have done very well at the Senior level that year. And if they were told that medaling at the GPF would perhaps allow an age ineligible skater a chance to go to the Olympics. Korea just might have made different choices, because surely they wanted Kim to have Olympic experience. Choices like sending Yu-na to the Olympic qualifier.

In fact there was a lot of feelings of why is Japan asking now-and not several months ago-when both countries could have taken advantage.

 

[Tonichelle]

.... but wasn't in the mood for any rants from the young'uns so I tried to tone it down.

yes, because youth/age makes one's point more or less valid. :sheesh:

some of us 'youngins' can/do remember the "good ol days" of figures and 6.0s... and some of the old'uns are big fans of that evil CoP

 

[Blades of Passion]

Perhaps the Kwan team played it TOO safe.

3Toe instead of 3Flip in the SP was a tiny bit annoying.

I'm sure they knew Lipinski was going for the more difficult combination jump as well (3Lutz-2Loop, although I suppose the flutzing cancels out the added difficulty). It seemed pretty arrogant to go for a safe 3Toe, especially when Kwan did the program so well with a 3Flip at Nationals.

No 3Toe-3Toe combo in the LP was definitely the bigger mistake, though. The excuse was Kwan needed to avoid the 3Toe because her foot had just healed (the reason she did 3Flip instead of 3Toe in the SP at Nationals) and yet, after putting the 3Toe back into the SP, it was still not reasonable to do a 3-3 in the LP.

Can't have it both ways.

Of course, she ultimately just needed to skate completely clean. The bobble on the 3Flip in her LP cost her the Gold.

 

[Mafke]

The biggest argument against the Arakawa beats Asada plot is .... if Asada could have gone, would JSF have sent Arakawa in the first place?

At the time, they were criticized for sending Ando who'd been skating badly. But she was secure in the point system that JSF was using (And Suguri usually was very strong at Japan nats).

Who was on the bubble, who would have stayed had Asada been sent?

 

[Bennett]

Math, Fumie might not have won Japanese Nationals if Arakawa was in danger. The positions of the Japanese nationals, magically ensured that the team memembers Japan wanted to send to the Olympics automatically got to go to the Olympics.

I.e Fumie needed to win Japanese Nationals in order to have the right amount of points.

You said that. Fumie did almost the same at Nationals as she did at the Olympics. I think that she was either held up at Nationals or pulled down at the Olympics (especially her PCS). Could be both. Yet, there is no way she outskated Mao at Nationals. Mao did miss her 2A at SP. Nonetheless, she landed two 3As at FS.

Mathman, I do not think that JSF with many FS experts were blind about Arakawa getting better while Miki going downhill to the worst slump (even though they nonetheless might have sticked to the point system for whatever reasons).

 

[Blades of Passion]

Well, Fumie skated perfect at Nationals. She doubled one of her jumps at the Olympics and didn't skate with quite as much inspiration either.

Mao did 2 excellent Triple Axels but she messed up one of her jumping passes (turning the 3Loop-2Loop-2Loop into just a 3Loop with a bit of a turnout), so in the end it was actually not worth quite as much as her performance at the GPF.

 

[life684]

Arakawa, apart from not doing 3-3 in Lp also double one jump and landed only 5 triples. So she too was under intense pressure... remember 2006 was the worst olympics for japan in a long time, till that point Japan was yet to medal, and Arakawa was in medal wining position after SP.

Any rule changes to allow under 16 to olympics would have been made early in the season thus allowing Yu na to qualify through the qualifying championships. If both Yuna and Mao were competing i certainly believe they could have gone 1-2 ( both ways), if not win medals pushing both Irina and Sasha out of medals.

yes, as someone suggested Arakawa's olympic total was higher than that of Mao's GPF score, but this was due to PCS score , and again pCS at GPF was lower than PCS at Olympics and this coupled with fact that mao PCS was lot much lower than irina's suggest that Mao would have scored higher at olympics. Lets not forget she was ordained as the best skater by the media after GPFs and this would have surely reflected in the PCS.

As for Yuna, she was doing 7 triple in her long program including a 3f+3t and 2a+3t. her pcs never took off because she was skating in junior events and it would be very hard to mark her down in PCS if she skated well at olympics, because she was very artistic even as a junior.

Since japanese media would have put intense pressure on both arakawa and asada, i think Yuna would have ended winning the Gold

Olympic Podium
1) Yuna Kim
2) Mao Asada
3) Shizuka Arakawa

 

[Blades of Passion]

That was a wonderful journey of rampant speculation you just took me on. Thanks!

 

[antmanb]

Mao scored more at 2007 Worlds than Arakawa at the Olympics.

Still, I think Arakawa would have performed the 3Sal-3Toe at the Olympics if there had been the threat of people skating so well technically.

But didn't Shizuka skate before Irina? Technically there was still a skater to go who would put out 3/3s so if that was going to be her rationale she would have used it for Irina, but she played it safe to get a medal. I still don't believe Shizuka thought she was skating for the gold, she was skating for a medal and the ones that went for gold failed.

Ant

 

[Bennett]

Agreed.

I thought she had two 3-3s in the program. lutz and sal. It was Morozov who advised not to do the lutz 3-3 combo and she herself decided not to do the sal 3-3 because her landing was slightly shaky for her.

While shizuka did say that she never thought of OGM, Morozov would have wanted the best result. But the basic strategy of Morosov is to play safe. He might have known that Irina was a bit psychologically shaky being the final skate at her last olympics. it is reported that Irina was watching shizuka practice in her best condition whereas shizuka was calm and relaxed. He might have thought that one 3-3 would be enough.

 

[Blades of Passion]

Irina wasn't planning a 3-3 and didn't practice them much either at the Olympics, AFAIK.

I agree that Shizuka didn't try to skate for Gold, though. She knew Cohen made those mistakes and that she was guaranteed a medal if she just skated clean. Winning Japan's only medal of the games was enough of an honor for her.

I do wish she had skated like she was trying to win, though. Her 3-3 was completely consistent in practice and she definitely landed that 3Sal well enough to do a 3Toe on the end.

 

[Bennett]

I do wish she had skated like she was trying to win, though. Her 3-3 was completely consistent in practice and she definitely landed that 3Sal well enough to do a 3Toe on the end.

Yeah, she did say that she could have perhaps landed 3T fine if she tried. But she was worried about possible DG so that she made the decision on the spot when she felt that her landing of 3S was not perfect. She knew the system well.

 

[janetfan]

And as for the whole Tara didn't feel pressure at the Olympics. I find that so insulting. I know I believe it was Susie Wynn commented once that she disagreed with this. She noted that Tara had one of the hardest work ethics in the sport. And she felt that it translated into Tara being prepared and ready when it came to the moment of Truth.

In fact I remember after the long program, Richard C commenting on how he never saw someone handle pressure like that. Clearly Tara's coach, felt Tara was feeling pressure. And I think he would know that more than people, many who were looking to take away from Tara's win.

ITA.
I just love it when skating experts here also become expert psychologists too.
Such a brilliant blending of skills has cleared up many mysteries for us,

We know for instance, that Sarah felt no pressure at SLC. Maybe her Gold medal should be taken away because only Michelle, Sasha and Irina had pressure. The competition was obviously unfair since only one of the top skaters was able to compose herself and skate well. Such situations shoud not be tolerated at the Olympics.

A stress test should be given and any skater not on the verge of a nervous breakdown should be disqualified. :yes:
That would certainly give us better competitions, right? :agree:

And of course Tara was too young to even know such a thing as pressure existed