What would have happened...Asada in 2006 Oly?

[KellyWil70]

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=vjARDCovgA4&feature=related

I think she looked pretty good. Probably better than she does currently??

 

[janetfan]

I am not a skater, so I have never been a competitor in figure skating.

I have also not been an audience member of any figure skating competitions (though I am unsure how that would make my comments on youth/nerves more qualified.)

I do, however, have a number of Track & Field, Baseball (not softball), and LOL Chess medals sitting in a box. And then of course is my greatest love for which I have no awards except being invited to a national tournament.

I am sure you are very formidable chess player who could give me a thrashing while simultaneoulsy reading a book.

I don't think your opinion about the "nerve factor" is any better or so much worse whether you have skated or skated competitively.
I did not direct my satircal remarks at you (did it feel that way) but at any poster here who is trying to tell us they know how nervous the four girls were that night.

I think that is nonsense, and only after interviewing the four girls and their respective coaches would I offer a serious opinion on this subject.

See maybe I am considering a point you have made to me - that FACTS and research do matter in discussions.

I feel it is not only accurate but fair to point out that posters at a skating board are typically not privvy to such information which is why I mocked it the way I did.

My comments were directed at all who post here and claim to know the exact mental and emotional state of the ladies that fateful evening in SLC.

I think the degree of sarcasm I offered was worthy of the claim's which are nothing more than speculation. .

 

[antmanb]

A good point and maybe a matter of semantics. But what about the point that I raised about strategy. Isn't a skater who chooses to be a bit more cautious doing so for one primary reason? I doubt if Shiz was "playing it safe" in order to assure winning a bronze medal.

Sorry i thought i'd made it clear by saying i disagreed, but it got lost in the length of the post. I disagreed because i think exactly that - she skated conservatively aiming to win the silver or bronze. If she had her eye on the gold she would have gone for the harder combos presuming that Slutskaya would go for them (having gone for them all season long). Shiz dropping the 3/3s would have been like e.g. in this upcoming Olympics, Joubert dropping all his quads because Lysacek fell twice in his LP but Pluschenko was still to skate. You know you need the technical arsenal to win, if you know this and you drop it, then you can't be going for the gold surely?

Anyway it doesn't particularly matter, tactics are for nowt in this sport because the ice is slippery and you can accidnetally end up downgrading something (like Shiz's triple loop) without intending to. The only tactic that seems to work - is skate to the best of your ability and do everything you plan, if you do that you can win, if you don't you leave the door open.

Ant

 

[janetfan]

Sorry i thought i'd made it clear by saying i disagreed, but it got lost in the length of the post. I disagreed because i think exactly that - she skated conservatively aiming to win the silver or bronze. If she had her eye on the gold she would have gone for the harder combos presuming that Slutskaya would go for them (having gone for them all season long). Shiz dropping the 3/3s would have been like e.g. in this upcoming Olympics, Joubert dropping all his quads because Lysacek fell twice in his LP but Pluschenko was still to skate. You know you need the technical arsenal to win, if you know this and you drop it, then you can't be going for the gold surely?

Anyway it doesn't particularly matter, tactics are for nowt in this sport because the ice is slippery and you can accidnetally end up downgrading something (like Shiz's triple loop) without intending to. The only tactic that seems to work - is skate to the best of your ability and do everything you plan, if you do that you can win, if you don't you leave the door open.

Ant

Thanks ant. Well said, and if I may dare add - it sounds like a good description of the way Evan approaches competitive events.:yes:

 

[Tango_D_R]

Shiz dropping the 3/3s would have been like e.g. in this upcoming Olympics, Joubert dropping all his quads because Lysacek fell twice in his LP but Pluschenko was still to skate.
Ant

So simple yet clear.
:thumbsup: :thumbsup: :thumbsup: :thumbsup: :thumbsup: :thumbsup: :thumbsup:

Arakawa would have definitely put 3-3 in her program if she were aiming for the gold.

 

[Medusa]

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=vjARDCovgA4&feature=related

I think she looked pretty good. Probably better than she does currently??

I actually don't think that she looks exceptionally good in those clips, you clearly see that the jumps are relatively low, she rarely hits a clean flowing edge on the landing. Same goes by the way for the other babies who won Olympic Gold, neither had exceptional clean jumps, with full clean rotations and nice flowing edges out of them. I am not very sorry that she couldn't start at the Olympics, I much preferred to see three women battle it out for the top spot, not upset by a little girl who at this one window in her career had the body that allowed her to complete difficult jump layouts despite seriously flawed technique.

 

[Joesitz (RIP)]

OK, so I am thinking?? Was 2006 a "what would have happened for Mao" had she been 2-3 months older? Anyone have COP comparison for this? Are her best days behind her? FLAME AWAY!!!

She would have won it. There is no fear factor at that age. Cohen and Slutskaya did have the fear factor. Shizuka took advantage of that.

 

[janetfan]

So simple yet clear.
:thumbsup: :thumbsup: :thumbsup: :thumbsup: :thumbsup: :thumbsup: :thumbsup:

Arakawa would have definitely put 3-3 in her program if she were aiming for the gold.

Sorry, but if I was coaching Shiz I would have kept her LP the way she skated it.

Based on Irina's two previous Olympic performances would it be necessary for Shiz to take more risk than - as ant suggested - taking her best shot at a clean performance?

I miss Irina, admired her greatly - but all three of her Olympic performances never approached what she had shown in lesser events. Bad luck, nerves, health, etc. many factors could have contributed.

Why would Shiz be intimadated to the point of adding more risk based on Irina?
And Shiz managed to skate well enough to make it necessary for Irina to be very good that evening.

Had Shiz failed on a 3x3 that night the Gold medal might have gone to Sasha or opened a window for a slighlty better Irina.

 

[Joesitz (RIP)]

Sorry, but if I was coaching Shiz I would have kept her LP the way she skated it.

Based on Irina's two previous Olympic performances would it be necessary for Shiz to take more risk than - as ant suggested - taking her best shot at a clean performance?

I miss Irina, admired her greatly - but all three of her Olympic performances never approached what she had shown in lesser events. Bad luck, nerves, health, etc. many factors could have contributed.

Why would Shiz be intimadated to the point of adding more risk based on Irina?
And Shiz managed to skate well enough to make it necessary for Irina to be very good that evening.

Had Shiz failed on a 3x3 that night the Gold medal might have gone to Sasha or opened a window for a slighlty better Irina.

Some say Order of Skate does not affect the outcome. Don't believe it.

 

[janetfan]

Some say Order of Skate does not affect the outcome. Don't believe it.

I thought that a certain new system was supposed to specifically address that "situation/problem."

But I agree with you Joe. It is what makes your idea of a "jumping competition" kind of intriguing. :yes:

 

[R.D.]

 

[Olympia]

I actually don't think that she looks exceptionally good in those clips, you clearly see that the jumps are relatively low, she rarely hits a clean flowing edge on the landing. Same goes by the way for the other babies who won Olympic Gold, neither had exceptional clean jumps, with full clean rotations and nice flowing edges out of them. I am not very sorry that she couldn't start at the Olympics, I much preferred to see three women battle it out for the top spot, not upset by a little girl who at this one window in her career had the body that allowed her to complete difficult jump layouts despite seriously flawed technique.

Very well said, Medusa! A dear departed friend of mine once said pithily that you couldn't fit a piece of paper under Tara Lipinski's jumps. (Not to take away from her winning the gold medal--or her perfect temperament under pressure.) That's one reason I never say to myself, "Ooh, I'd love to see a great skating routine right now; why don't I look on YouTube for Tara's winning long program?" Her program did the job, but it wasn't one for the ages. And Sarah Hughes, for all her poise and appeal, had terrible posture, and for that she won sports immortality. (Again, not to take anything away from her win.)

I just don't like the shape skating will take if the only people suited for winning the ladies' medal aren't anywhere near ladyhood. That's just gymnastics on ice: an endless succession of girls whose names we never have to bother to remember, because there will be another set coming along next year. Meanwhile, the guys grow more subtle and powerful every year, try new skating personas and music, and return for two and three Olympic cycles. So it can be done!

Besides, Asada has so much to offer besides the jumping bean aspect that I'd like to see an entire career from her, not just two weeks in the spotlight at an early age, and then gone.

 

[Tango_D_R]

Sorry, but if I was coaching Shiz I would have kept her LP the way she skated it.

Based on Irina's two previous Olympic performances would it be necessary for Shiz to take more risk than - as ant suggested - taking her best shot at a clean performance?

I miss Irina, admired her greatly - but all three of her Olympic performances never approached what she had shown in lesser events. Bad luck, nerves, health, etc. many factors could have contributed.

Why would Shiz be intimadated to the point of adding more risk based on Irina?
And Shiz managed to skate well enough to make it necessary for Irina to be very good that evening.

Had Shiz failed on a 3x3 that night the Gold medal might have gone to Sasha or opened a window for a slighlty better Irina.

Had Irina didn't mess up her jumps, the gold would have gone to Irina as well. There's no point of second guessing because it can go on and on.. and I really don't think taking Irina's previous olympic performances which was 4,8 years ago as a main consideration in 2006 would be the right way. The main consideration to take as some kind of an indicator should be how she skated through the most recent year(i.e. Worlds,GPS, Euros and so on).
Given her dominant performances throughout the Olympic season, Irina would and should been a clear intimidation to Arakawa if the gold was what Shiz had been craving for.
The rather safe & clean strategy of Shiz was to realistically aim for bronze or silver and hope for the best. Had it been the other way around, as Irina the one who was playing by that tactics, I would agree it was a good strategy for gold. But for Shiz, realitstically.. No.



BTW totally out of subject.. I wasn't really a big fan of hers but I personally rooted for Irina.
Knowing her history of struggles, I somehow firmly believed at that point that this Olympic might be that *moment* for her.:no:

 

[janetfan]

Had Irina didn't mess up her jumps, the gold would have gone to Irina as well. There's no point of second guessing because it can go on and on.. and I really don't think taking Irina's previous olympic performances which was 4,8 years ago as a main consideration in 2006 would be the right way. The main consideration to take as some kind of an indicator should be how she skated through the most recent year(i.e. Worlds,GPS, Euros and so on).
Given her dominant performances throughout the Olympic season, Irina would and should been a clear intimidation to Arakawa if the gold was what Shiz had been craving for.
The rather safe & clean strategy of Shiz was to realistically aim for bronze or silver and hope for the best. Had it been the other way around, as Irina the one who was playing by that tactics, I would agree it was a good strategy for gold. But for Shiz, realitstically.. No.



BTW totally out of subject.. I wasn't really a big fan of hers but I personally rooted for Irina.
Knowing her history of struggles, I somehow firmly believed at that point that this Olympic might be that *moment* for her.:no:

Your view seems to be shared here by several others so it is easy to accept that your points make good sense.

Your last sentence stands out for me because Irina was in the exact same situation back in 2002. Maybe my thought for Shiz to just skate a good, clean program has some basis for examination as it relates to "playing the percentages."

This would appear to be a picture perfect example of "history repeating itself, or in the immortal words of Yogi Berra, "It's like déjà vu all over again." :yes:

 

[Mathman]

If I am remembering correctly, we don't have to guess what the strategy of Arakawa's team was. They came right out and said it, in several interviews immediately after the event.

The full program had places for two triple-triples. I believe the first was a possible triple Lutz-triple loop, and in the second part of the program, a triple Salchow-triple toe. When Sasha took herself out of contention (as they believed, watching her fall twice), and with only Slutskaya among the contenders to go, team Arakawa decided to cut down the first triple-triple to a triple-double, and just go with one triple-triple, the Salchow-toe.

This strategy was based both on conservatism -- make sure that Japan wins at least one medal -- and also on the fact that Irina had not been landing triple-triples in practice, so one clean triple-triple by Shizuka would probably be enough for the win.

So Shizuka omitted the first triple-triple as instructed, and when the time came for the second one, it wasn't there and she bailed with a triple-double. Even after also doubling the loop, her program stood up when Irina came up with one of the worst performances of her career.

(That's how I remember it from the news conferences, anyway.)

I am not very sorry that she couldn't start at the Olympics, I much preferred to see three women battle it out for the top spot, not upset by a little girl who at this one window in her career had the body that allowed her to complete difficult jump layouts despite seriously flawed technique.

I would agree with this if the Olympic games were about what level of artistic maturity the audience most wants to see.

If it is about who is the best at their sport, then, come one, come all. If the seriously flawed child outskates everyone else, so be it.

 

[janetfan]

If I am remembering correctly, we don't have to guess what the strategy of Arakawa's team was. They came right out and said it, in several interviews immediately after the event.

The full program had places for two triple-triples. I believe the first was a possible triple Lutz-triple loop, and in the second part of the program, a triple Salchow-triple toe. When Sasha took herself out of contention (as they believed, watching her fall twice), and with only Slutskaya among the contenders to go, team Arakawa decided to cut down the first triple-triple to a triple-double, and just go with one triple-triple, the Salchow-toe.

This strategy was based both on conservatism -- make sure that Japan wins at least one medal -- and also on the fact that Irina had not been landing triple-triples in practice, so one clean triple-triple by Shizuka would probably be enough for the win.

So Shizuka omitted the first triple-triple as instructed, and when the time came for the second one, it wasn't there and she bailed with a triple-double. Even after also doubling the loop, her program stood up when Irina came up with one of the worst performances of her career.

(That's how I remember it from the news conferences, anyway.)

Thankyou for sharing your recollections mm. It still leaves room for discussion but I think what you just expressed seems to be what happened.

Since Shiz's team felt Sasha was out of it, the idea to go for one 3x3 feels like Shiz wanted a medal and felt a Gold was very possible.

 

[prettykeys]

I would agree with this if the Olympic games were about what level of artistic maturity the audience most wants to see.

If it is about who is the best at their sport, then, come one, come all. If the seriously flawed child outskates everyone else, so be it.

I truly feel that Mao could have made the event more exciting, at the least.

 

[Bennett]

If I am remembering correctly, we don't have to guess what the strategy of Arakawa's team was. They came right out and said it, in several interviews immediately after the event.

The full program had places for two triple-triples. I believe the first was a possible triple Lutz-triple loop, and in the second part of the program, a triple Salchow-triple toe. When Sasha took herself out of contention (as they believed, watching her fall twice), and with only Slutskaya among the contenders to go, team Arakawa decided to cut down the first triple-triple to a triple-double, and just go with one triple-triple, the Salchow-toe.

This strategy was based both on conservatism -- make sure that Japan wins at least one medal -- and also on the fact that Irina had not been landing triple-triples in practice, so one clean triple-triple by Shizuka would probably be enough for the win.

So Shizuka omitted the first triple-triple as instructed, and when the time came for the second one, it wasn't there and she bailed with a triple-double. Even after also doubling the loop, her program stood up when Irina came up with one of the worst performances of her career.

(That's how I remember it from the news conferences, anyway.)
.

Good summary. shizuka also seemed truly astonished to get gold as if she never expected that. She said that she wanted to do best and enjoy her performance at the Olympics and that she indeed enjoyed herself.

Sounds like a model answer, but it makes sense because she wasn't having the most successful years after the worlds win.

After the worlds she contemplating on retirement. When she won the Worlds and was asked about the Olympics, she answered, "Ah, the Olympics is in two years" sounding as if she hadn't been aware.
Falling down to 9th at the next worlds was the determining point to continue. But she wasn't skating like the OGM contender throughout the season and few, except for skating experts, expected that to come. She missed GPF and messed up at Nationals.

The team also wouldn't have been able to predict how well she would fare because of all changes. She renewed her personal best in both programs which were both skated for the first time at the Olympics (SP was modification of her previous FS and FS was new except that the music was used before (but different structure and choreos)).

Although Morosov might have tried to shoot for the very best result, for Shizuka, it might have been a similar situation like Jeff who asked his coach "Was it enough (to get a medal)?" and was shocked to be told that it might have been enough to get the gold.

 

[Blades of Passion]

Everyone knew that if Arakawa skated a 6-Triple program and Irina skated a 6-Triple program (with both of them doing all the extra double jumps in combination as well), that Irina was 99% likely to win the Gold Medal.

Arakawa needed the Triple-Triple to win, in theory.

When she made the decision not to do the 3-3, she was conceding the Gold medal in exchange for an almost certain spot on the podium.

 

[janetfan]

Everyone knew that if Arakawa skated a 6-Triple program and Irina skated a 6-Triple program (with both of them doing all the extra double jumps in combination as well), that Irina was 99% likely to win the Gold Medal.

Arakawa needed the Triple-Triple to win, in theory.

When she made the decision not to do the 3-3, she was conceding the Gold medal in exchange for an almost certain spot on the podium.

That scenario works much better if Irina came out before Shiz and skated great.
It does not feel logical at all if Shiz skated before Irina.

From how you describe this it also makes no sense for Evan to bother competing in big events. On paper, the guy never seems to be the best skater.

Yet he has had a pretty successful career. Evan does his best and if he needs "help" his experience tells him he will get it frequently. Very frequently. Like at justt about every event!!

Strategically, think "skating 101," aka "ice is slippery."

Shiz and her team had to be thinking about the same thing. It is hard to skate last at the Olympics with everything on the line. To not consider that is to overlook just about the single most important aspect of Olympic skating. It is about poise, handling pressure, and about not taking yourself out of the competition. To think otherwise, as you appear to be saying sounds like the opposite of what it takes to win particularly when the pressure is at it's zenith.

ETA: and of course you consider your opponent very, very carefully and how they may have done in similar situations, not to mention warmups all week,