Ice Dance Senior Debutantes (I/K, P/I & the Shibs): Most Potential/Improved/Liked?

[ImaginaryPogue]

The thing I notice, doris, with W/P is that they lose ground on the GOES. They do well on base value (for the most part) but tend to score lower on GOEs than C/P. There was 1.5 difference in base values. Additionally, it's worth mentioning that C/P are working with the TES handicap that is the long-lift.

But more than that, for all the improvement we talk about with W/P, P/I have improved rapidly. If they continue this rapid pace, I'd say they could challenge W/P, especially if W/P coast a little (which I'm worried about, honestly).

 

[dorispulaski]

Yes, I think I&K have made the least improvement, too, over their last year's performance. I can't help remembering Tarasova being upset that they hadn't worked enough over the off season. She said that at the Russian test skate before the GP's last summer, and I do worry whether they have the work ethic needed for a team that's going to make it to the very top. Because this year Russia has 3 wonderful teams that have retired, & there is a huge hole for a young team to rise quickly, they are doing well, but with the awesome talent upcoming in Russian ice dance, I worry that they are getting that "entitled", "just mail my medal to me" attitude that in the long run is fatal, IMO. The only skater this worked for IMO is Evan who could talk about "peaking at Worlds" and still get on the US team. I don't know any dancers for whom it has been a good long term strategy.

However, they are young, and a change of attitude is the quickest and most important change an athlete can make, IMO.

 

[Lucky Star]

Shibs (US Nats) Level 4 6.93 Level 4 8.86, Total 15.79
P&I (Can Nats) Level 4 6.50, Level 2 6.50, Total 13.0
I&K (Euros) Level 3 5.36, Level 2 6.29, Total 11.65

I don't think it's right to compare scores from different competitions with different technical callers. At the Russian Nationals top 3 teams got almost the same scores for SD they got later at Euros. At the US Nationals the Shibs got 70+ points for SD, I doubt they will get it at the international competitions. At the Grand Prix both I/K and the Shibs got level 3 and level 2 for their Golden waltz sequences, so we can't say now who is better in Golden waltz, let's wait for Worlds and then compare

Yes, I think I&K have made the least improvement, too, over their last year's performance. I can't help remembering Tarasova being upset that they hadn't worked enough over the off season. She said that at the Russian test skate before the GP's last summer, and I do worry whether they have the work ethic needed for a team that's going to make it to the very top. Because this year Russia has 3 wonderful teams that have retired, & there is a huge hole for a young team to rise quickly, they are doing well, but with the awesome talent upcoming in Russian ice dance, I worry that they are getting that "entitled", "just mail my medal to me" attitude that in the long run is fatal, IMO. The only skater this worked for IMO is Evan who could talk about "peaking at Worlds" and still get on the US team. I don't know any dancers for whom it has been a good long term strategy.

Actually it was Zhulin's plan and he said it in his interviews. He wanted I/K to show their best at Euros and Worlds and improve during the season, and it works so far. Last season it was the same, I/K lost to Monko/Khaliavin at the JGPF and Junior Nationals, but then beat them and other teams at JW and got huge scores. As for TAT, you now, at Euros she huged Elena and said how proud of them she is, what a good job their coaches did, etc., etc.

 

[oleada]

Yes, I think I&K have made the least improvement, too, over their last year's performance. I can't help remembering Tarasova being upset that they hadn't worked enough over the off season. She said that at the Russian test skate before the GP's last summer, and I do worry whether they have the work ethic needed for a team that's going to make it to the very top. Because this year Russia has 3 wonderful teams that have retired, & there is a huge hole for a young team to rise quickly, they are doing well, but with the awesome talent upcoming in Russian ice dance, I worry that they are getting that "entitled", "just mail my medal to me" attitude that in the long run is fatal, IMO. The only skater this worked for IMO is Evan who could talk about "peaking at Worlds" and still get on the US team. I don't know any dancers for whom it has been a good long term strategy.

However, they are young, and a change of attitude is the quickest and most important change an athlete can make, IMO.

Um....Nikita was off the ice for weeks during the summer as well, due to a back injury. I think it was at least 4-6 weeks. So understandably, they were not as prepared as they could have been. It's not because they aren't hard workers or lazy or entitled.

 

[dorispulaski]

I hope that you are both right, because I&K have many wonderful qualities, and that they will work hard, and have a long and successful career.

However, I can tell you that the Shibs at Nationals in the SD were miles from their SA & NHK performances. Their GW was spiffy, In fact, they were darn close to D&W, so that's why I think their Nationals score are not entirely crazy. 70 points at Worlds? No, I don't think so But we don't have to wait until Worlds. We will have the Shibs vs. D&W and V&M with international callers at 4CC's, and it will be interesting to see whether they are as amazing as they were at US Nationals, or whether that was just one inspired competition for them.

One caller was Judy Blumberg who has been particularly picky this year. Now the Canton crew have all consulted with Judy, so they know her particular foibles, and that's a plus.

 

[CARA]

I don't think it's right to compare scores from different competitions with different technical callers. At the Russian Nationals top 3 teams got almost the same scores for SD they got later at Euros. At the US Nationals the Shibs got 70+ points for SD, I doubt they will get it at the international competitions. At the Grand Prix both I/K and the Shibs got level 3 and level 2 for their Golden waltz sequences, so we can't say now who is better in Golden waltz, let's wait for Worlds and then compare.

It is true that at the NHK Trophy, both I/K & the Shibs obtained the levels 3 for the 1st sequence of GW, and the levels 2 for the 2nd sequence of GW.

The difference at the time of the US nationals and the Russian Nationals/Europeans is that the Shibs received the levels 4 on both sequences of the GW whereas I/K stayed the same levels. You probably will not see leap-frogging additional three levels regardless of different technical callers. (I'm not concerned about the total scores. As I mentioned initially, you cannot compare scores across different competitions, especially among nationals!)

To be fair, I understand that Elena had a leg injury prior to the Russian Nationals; however, their GW sequence levels stayed the same at the Europeans, a month after the Russian Nationals in which I/K presumably had abundant of time to practice.

So at this time, I would say that the Shibs have improved more. We will, for sure, see the apple-to-apple comparison at Worlds. Can't wait!

 

[Lucky Star]

The difference at the time of the US nationals and the Russian Nationals/Europeans is that the Shibs received the levels 4 on both sequences of the GW whereas I/K stayed the same levels. You probably will not see leap-frogging additional three levels regardless of different technical callers. (I'm not concerned about the total scores. As I mentioned initially, you cannot compare scores across different competitions, especially among nationals!)

Technical caller at the Russian Nationals was pretty strict to all teams; at the US Nationals not (at the Grand Prix even the leaders didn't get level 4 for steps sequences, for example, at the US Nationals D/W and the Shibs did), so we can't really say if the Shibs improved their Golden waltz that much or not.

 

[CARA]

Technical caller at the Russian Nationals was pretty strict to all teams; at the US Nationals not (at the Grand Prix even the leaders didn't get level 4 for steps sequences, for example, at the US Nationals D/W and the Shibs did), so we can't really say if the Shibs improved their Golden waltz that much or not.

Ok, this is a moot point. I'm sure you think you are right, and "I know I am right." We can respectfully agree to disagree and wait for Worlds for the "final report card" of this season.

 

[KKonas]

I don't know why some people are dissing the callers at Nationals. All three callers at senior dance in Greensboro are international callers. The Controller, John Cole is a World Controller (the highest position) and Hal Marron is an International Caller as is Blumberg, and Marron is a also a World Judge. If they said that the Shibs and D&W earned Level 4s for the SD, I don't think any one here has the qualification to argue the point.
We will just have to see if either team can repeat the performance they gave at Nationals.

 

[dorispulaski]

I thought the calling at US Nationals was pretty good.

As to D&W, they improved their GW all season, and achieved Level4 for both sequences at the GPF:
http://www.isuresults.com/results/gpf1011/gpf1011_IceDance_SD_Scores.pdf

Shibs, of course, were not there, but the fact that both teams got Level 4 does not mean that everybody was gifted.

Chock /Zuerlein in 3rd place at US Nationals only got Level 3 on both sequences.
At TEB, C/Z got level 4 on both sequences and at SC, they got Level 3 and Level 4, so if anything the callers at US Nationals were not just giving marks away.

But this is something you can judge yourself: play the youtube clips.

 

[ImaginaryPogue]

Unrelated, but given the callers for the mens (Ryan Bradley's quads receiving full base value when at least one should've been ur'ed/dg'ed) and womens (Czisny got a level four for her step sequence. She got level two at the GPF), I can see why people would be leery about all national tech callers. Given the complexity for dance, I think I'm more forgiving, but when a team like the Shibs gets a score that decimates the international field, I don't think skepticism is unwarranted.

 

[dorispulaski]

As to Bradley, while you have a point on the UR, there is no such thing as an edge call on a toeloop, since either a toe loop or a toe walley are acceptable for the jump.

 

[ImaginaryPogue]

Ur'ed = under-rotated
dg'ed = downgraded

I didn't mention an edge call in my post.

 

[skatingfan04]

I know I'm kind of side stepping the conversation here, but I really wanted to gush about P/I. I'm just so impressed with them. In addition to all of the wonderful things that you can see on television, they have a really captivating presence live, at least IMO. I saw them skate both programs in the summer, and I was actually really surprised by how much they drew me in. I know they're coming at the worst possible time if you consider their chances for scoring international assignments (coming out of Canada, where dance is just exploding) but I honestly believe they'll pass both W/P and C/P within the next two seasons. Their technical scores are, on average, within about three points of the other two. Three points is not that much, especially when you consider how much potential for improvement they still have. Reallistically, how much can C/P and W/P really improve? They're both excellent teams, but they have been together for a while, so there is no way that they have the same potential to really up their scores that P/I have. If P/I are already this close to them, I think that makes them really dangerous for the next couple of seasons. With more exposure, more experience together and more work with great choreogreaphers, their PCS can only improve as well.

As for the Shibs, I was actually blown away by how much I liked them. My concearn is that they seem to show a lack of maturity (IMO) that might hold them back. Also, they are a brother and sister team, and I always worry about how that will affect their execution of certain dances. I know a lot of sibling teams have done well, but I always wonder if the lack of romantic chemistry holds all of them back.

I really like I/K as well, especially Elena, who seems to have a great presence. I just wish they would pull themselves together a little better technically. They always look a tad unsteady to me.

Honestly, I think all three teams will be each others' best rivals in the years to come. I worry about P/I a little, only because they're really going to miss out on a lot of experience compared to the others if they get stuck behind W/P and C/P for a long time, but I honestly don't think that will end up being the case. I guess we'll see!

 

[skfan]

well, imaginary pogue can vouch for the fact that i am a fan of virtue/moir, but...

i also like paul/islam, and i don't mind being the only v/m fan w/ the opinion that P/I can continue imitating V/M for all eternity as far as i'm concerned. the only problem IMHO is they are not yet convincing clones because of the difference in skill level and maturity.

the way i think about it. v/m can only train so many programs, especially considering how much pain tessa has already endured in order to train. there's way more music i'll want to watch them skate to than they can realistically train. therefore, if somebody else could help expand the # of programs skated with that kind of lyrical grace in the next 10 years, all the better.

then again, i also like the lark ascending best of all ms. kim's programs and wish ms. kwak's skating style would closely resemble ms. kim's, for the same reason. i look for the next mao (in vain) among the younger japanese ladies as well. it's just my aesthetic ideal.

i understand the 'must have your own style' side of the discussion, and i like all 3 pairs being discussed here. because i'm a pessimist, and also because i think (with no foundation what so ever) that alexandra paul has a bit of diva dying to get out, i don't see their future path paralleling v/m's, so all the people who say, in essence, get off our turf, you're doing _our_ thing, will get their wish soon enough.

 

[museksk8r]

Which team show the most potential? To me, it's I/K. All of these teams have good technical ability, but I/K have the nicest basics, she's got the most beautiful, balletic positions, and they have the most chemistry and "it factor". I think they can take on a lot of themes and do them well. They have a lot of smoldering chemistry, too.
Which team improved the most since the last Jr. Worlds?;The Shibutanis
Strenghs/weaknesses of each team? Paul/Islam are pretty and technically good, but they are completely and utterly forgettable right now. They're V/M-lite and just need to find their own identity on the ice. Shibutanis are excellent technically with amazing twizzles. But they leave me cold, and as siblings, I think there is a limit as to what kind of programs they can tackle. I/K are inconsistent, but I highlighted their strengths above.
Areas of improvement; P/I - get their own identity. S/S - maybe being more interesting and less generic. I/K - increased consistency and transitions.
Your favorite team; Ilinykh/Katsalapov for sure.
The team that show the most promise for/at Sochi. I/K. More versatility, more emotion and you can't rule out the hometown factor.

ITA! :yes: You expressed my opinions very well on all 3 teams! :agree: Of the 3 teams at the moment, I/K are the only team from this thread that I would absolutely LOVE to see on the 2014 Olympic podium!

Unrelated, but given the callers for the mens (Ryan Bradley's quads receiving full base value when at least one should've been ur'ed/dg'ed) and womens (Czisny got a level four for her step sequence. She got level two at the GPF), I can see why people would be leery about all national tech callers. Given the complexity for dance, I think I'm more forgiving, but when a team like the Shibs gets a score that decimates the international field, I don't think skepticism is unwarranted.

ITA with this as well. That neither one of Bradley's LP 4toes were called for UR is criminal I think. He NEVER would have gotten away with that in front of an international panel, that is for sure. Yes, the scoring of the Shibutanis was extremely generous too when compared to how the very best teams internationally are being judged.

 

[herios]

ITA with this as well. That neither one of Bradley's LP 4toes were called for UR is criminal I think. He NEVER would have gotten away with that in front of an international panel, that is for sure. Yes, the scoring of the Shibutanis was extremely generous too when compared to how the very best teams internationally are being judged.

Based on 3 consecutive years of observing the marks across US and Canadian nationals, you may use a 10% discount of the marks to come up with what an international panel would have given in both countries.

 

[colleen o'neill]

Right. Even allowing for that inflation ( however much it might be), there's no question that the quality of the Shibs skating was very close to D/W's at their nationals..which I would not have predicted last summer...and a thing I'm not sure we could say for either I/K or P/I this year , if we're being completely objective. It's possible that a lot of it has to do with this particular set of programs and it might be different next year, depending on the material, but I'm just comparing in the here and now.

skfan , I agree with a lot of what you say. I'm sure P/I will want to establish their own distinctive look.But I expect it to remain fairly lyrical.

I think a lot of the "V/M lite" comments are pretty undeserved. I wouldn't want Alexandra to try to downplay her dance training ( She's ,if anything, a bit more willowy than Tessa, and there's a hint ..just a hint.. of something different ..haughtiness..self awareness..I'm not sure what to call it.) Besides this, they haven't had time to build up enough of a repertoire of their own for those charges to really stick..I think it's really her FD costume that exaggerates any similarity and I would have preferred if they'd done more to distance themselves. Then ,too ,she "gets" the Tango as Tessa does ( I can't see this as a bad thing ) ...So I think comparisons were inevitable , but I really don't think they're trying to be clones. Next year will tell a lot.

 

[skatingfan04]

Right. Even allowing for that inflation ( however much it might be), there's no question that the quality of the Shibs skating was very close to D/W's at their nationals..which I would not have predicted last summer...and a thing I'm not sure we could say for either I/K or P/I this year , if we're being completely objective. It's possible that a lot of it has to do with this particular set of programs and it might be different next year, depending on the material, but I'm just comparing in the here and now.

skfan , I agree with a lot of what you say. I'm sure P/I will want to establish their own distinctive look.But I expect it to remain fairly lyrical.

I think a lot of the "V/M lite" comments are pretty undeserved. I wouldn't want Alexandra to try to downplay her dance training ( She's ,if anything, a bit more willowy than Tessa, and there's a hint ..just a hint.. of something different ..haughtiness..self awareness..I'm not sure what to call it.) Besides this, they haven't had time to build up enough of a repertoire of their own for those charges to really stick..I think it's really her FD costume that exaggerates any similarity and I would have preferred if they'd done more to distance themselves. Then ,too ,she "gets" the Tango as Tessa does ( I can't see this as a bad thing ) ...So I think comparisons were inevitable , but I really don't think they're trying to be clones. Next year will tell a lot.

Once again, colleen, you've taken the words right out of my mouth.

 

[seniorita]

I/K , they have something of the glory of dance teams of the past, and their free at Euros was awesome!
I liked Shibutanis too in Juniors last year!