Alissa Czisny Update!

[b-man]

Mirai gave a similar performance at CoC (1 UR in the SP, 3 in the FS) and ended up in fourth with 163.46, behind Mao, Kiira, and little Julia L. That's too much of a discrepancy for the US federation's comfort, as that score at Worlds would have put her behind Suzuki, in 13th. Meaning no disrespect of any sort, but I think Mirai had an easier time at NHK due to her popularity with the audience.

Point taken, the 163 was not a good performance. But compare with Gao, 154 and last at GPF, 164 at TEB, or Agnes- 166 at Rostelcom, 158 and last American (even without Wagner) at four continents, 160 at NHK which was 16 points behind Mirai head- to- head. Those substandard scores should also be major concerns to US Federation.

 

[ForeverFish]

Point taken, the 163 was not a good performance. But compare with Gao, 154 and last at GPF, 164 at TEB, or Agnes- 166 at Rostelcom, 158 and last American (even without Wagner) at four continents, 160 at NHK which was 16 points behind Mirai head- to- head. Those substandard scores should also be major concerns to US Federation.

Oh, I'm sure there were concerns, which is why Wagner and Gold ended up being the World team after all. Zawadzki, Gao, and Nagasu have been very inconsistent over the past season (the same could also be said for Gold, but at least she's showing signs of conquering her nerves), but who else would the US send as their 3rd team member for an outside shot at the top ten in Sochi if Czisny doesn't show up in full form at Nationals?

 

[skateluvr]

I am hoping Christina Gao skates well and is the 3rd lady. That said, I hope Alissa makes it to Nationals and skates well. I truly don't think she should get another shot at Olympic or world team. Doubt she'll skate up to that level, despite flexibility and her spins. Hoping for a nice skate to end on a good note. This should be her last season realistically.

 

[ForeverFish]

I am hoping Christina Gao skates well and is the 3rd lady. That said, I hope Alissa makes it to Nationals and skates well. I truly don't think she should get another shot at Olympic or world team. Doubt she'll skate up to that level, despite flexibility and her spins. Hoping for a nice skate to end on a good note. This should be her last season realistically.

Christina Gao is also my first pick for that third spot. She's had a breakthrough season and showed at 4CC that she can hold her own against some of the best ladies in the world. She probably won't knock Ashley or Gracie out of first or second at 2014 Nationals, but a gap year from Harvard should be a huge boon to her skating. Gao might not want to stay on for another four years after Sochi and fight off the rising US ladies, or have to significantly up her ante in the Age of Gold, so this could be her first and last chance to skate at the Olympics.

My second choice is Alissa Czisny, simply because she has had some brilliant moments in the past and could be the subtle, graceful complement to Ashley and Gracie's attack-mode in Sochi. I'd also like to see her skate at the Olympics before she retires, medal or not.

 

[b-man]

Oh, I'm sure there were concerns, which is why Wagner and Gold ended up being the World team after all. Zawadzki, Gao, and Nagasu have been very inconsistent over the past season (the same could also be said for Gold, but at least she's showing signs of conquering her nerves), but who else would the US send as their 3rd team member for an outside shot at the top ten in Sochi if Czisny doesn't show up in full form at Nationals?

I think Gao, Nagasu, and Zawadski should all be in the running. Gao and Nagasu have been performing better internationally. Zawadski has been performing better at Nationals, at least according to the judges, but has been performing behind the other two internationally. As I mentioned in other posts, Agnes has an international PB of 166 covering 3 years, 6 GP's and two four continents. Agnes won over Gao and Nagasu at Nationals, yet loses to Nagasu at NHK and to Gao at 4 Continents. I haven't analyzed their international PCS, but it probably is worth checking, as Sochi and world's in Japan won't be in Omaha with nationals judges.

Czisny is a complete unknown. When you talk about Gao, Nagasu and Agnes being inconsistent, Czisny has always been a big question mark when it comes to her jumps, and that was before two serious injuries. A 2011 Czisny would be a great addition, as would a 2010 Nagasu. So there is no clear frontrunner at this point.

 

[ForeverFish]

I think Gao, Nagasu, and Zawadski should all be in the running. Gao and Nagasu have been performing better internationally. Zawadski has been performing better at Nationals, at least according to the judges, but has been performing behind the other two internationally. As I mentioned in other posts, Agnes has an international PB of 166 covering 3 years, 6 GP's and two four continents. Agnes won over Gao and Nagasu at Nationals, yet loses to Nagasu at NHK and to Gao at 4 Continents. I haven't analyzed their international PCS, but it probably is worth checking, as Sochi and world's in Japan won't be in Omaha with nationals judges.

Czisny is a complete unknown. When you talk about Gao, Nagasu and Agnes being inconsistent, Czisny has always been a big question mark when it comes to her jumps, and that was before two serious injuries. A 2011 Czisny would be a great addition, as would a 2010 Nagasu. So there is no clear frontrunner at this point.

I think they ARE all in the running. None of them can be discounted this early, unless an unforeseen injury happens (God forbid). If the federation only considers National results, then Zawadzki has a leg up as the defending bronze medalist for two years running. If they also look at the first half of the season, which I think would be a wiser choice, then it's partially dependent on who has better GP results. Nagasu and Gao would probably lead the race.

It'll be too messy to go through and look for each girl's highest-ever PCS, but here are the highest ISU results for each from this season:

Zawadzki:

SP: 27.29 (2012 NHK)
FS: 55.33 (2012 CoR)

Gao:

SP: 28.75 (2013 4CC)
FS: 57.88 (2013 4CC)

Nagasu:

SP: 28.82 (2012 NHK)
FS: 59.14 (2012 NHK)

So, Zawadzki and Gao are both behind Nagasu in this aspect. It's in the FS where this difference is most prominent, but Nagasu also has the disadvantage of URs, whereas neither Zawadzki nor Gao encounter that issue regularly. It should be noted, in all fairness, that NONE of the US ladies can be said to be consistent. Gold is out of the question. Wagner was having a great GP run until the GPF, and then won Nationals by the skin of her teeth. All in all, she fell five times across three consecutive free skates. It was only at WTT, at the very end of the season, that she gave us a much-needed glimpse of "Swagner." Only one lady in the WORLD is currently consistent, and that's Yuna.

Czisny is a shot in the dark right now. We honestly have no idea what form she's in, aside from that video of her FS without jumps (and her spins aren't what they used to be, but what do you expect after 2 hip surgeries?). We'll have a better picture of each girl's chances when the GP rolls around.

 

[b-man]

I think they ARE all in the running. None of them can be discounted this early, unless an unforeseen injury happens (God forbid). If the federation only considers National results, then Zawadzki has a leg up as the defending bronze medalist for two years running. If they also look at the first half of the season, which I think would be a wiser choice, then it's partially dependent on who has better GP results. Nagasu and Gao would probably lead the race.

It'll be too messy to go through and look for each girl's highest-ever PCS, but here are the highest ISU results for each from this season:

Zawadzki:

SP: 27.29 (2012 NHK)
FS: 55.33 (2012 CoR)

Gao:

SP: 28.75 (2013 4CC)
FS: 57.88 (2013 4CC)

Nagasu:

SP: 28.82 (2012 NHK)
FS: 59.14 (2012 NHK)

So, Zawadzki and Gao are both behind Nagasu in this aspect. It's in the FS where this difference is most prominent, but Nagasu also has the disadvantage of URs, whereas neither Zawadzki nor Gao encounter that issue regularly. It should be noted, in all fairness, that NONE of the US ladies can be said to be consistent. Gold is out of the question. Wagner was having a great GP run until the GPF, and then won Nationals by the skin of her teeth. All in all, she fell five times across three consecutive free skates. It was only at WTT, at the very end of the season, that she gave us a much-needed glimpse of "Swagner." Only one lady in the WORLD is currently consistent, and that's Yuna.

Czisny is a shot in the dark right now. We honestly have no idea what form she's in, aside from that video of her FS without jumps (and her spins aren't what they used to be, but what do you expect after 2 hip surgeries?). We'll have a better picture of each girl's chances when the GP rolls around.

Thanks for researching the PCS. This years PCS which you presented is exactly what I was interested in. Zawadski is a little behind ,as I suspected, which reflects her lower international scores. For whatever reason, she has impressed National judges, but international judges are certainly not impressed. I agree totally with your assessment of Czisny.

I have little history watching Czisny personally, but I will relate this recollection. I remember reading on these boards in 2011 that there was a send off performance at the Detroit skating club immediately prior to 2011 Nationals, and Czisny reportedly had problems on her jumping passes. At Nationals in Greensboro, she never missed a jump, in either the short or the long. So I went to the gala the next night. All the pressure was off, so Alissa could have a nice leisurely victory performance. Well she made just two jumping passes in the exhibition, and fell on both. So she falls in the no pressure send off, and falls in the no pressure gala, but doesn't miss a jump in the high pressure competition! It defies logic.

Yes, Yuna is the only totally consistent skater around. I got to go to 7 of 8 ladies practices in London, plus short and long. While I didn't watch Yuna exclusively (she was often practicing together with Mao and Wagner and others), when I did watch her I never saw her make a single mistake the whole week. She never missed a jump!

 

[silverlake22]

There are 2 frontrunners for the 3rd spot IMO: Gao and Zawadzki. I'd maybe have Gao a little ahead of Zawadzki at this point but I'd have them both significantly ahead of Czisny and Nagasu. Jumps are too important under COP and between Alissa never having strong/consistent jumps or difficult combos and now coming off 2 hip injuries, and Mirai with her chronic URs, I think it's pretty clear that Gao and Zawadzki are ahead in the picking order, and why they are ahead. I almost think skaters like Wang or Edmunds maybe have chances as good as Nagasu or Czisny to make the 3rd spot honestly, they can both do 3lz-3t with some consistency which Alissa and Mirai have never been able to do (Christina and Agnes don't do it either, but they have both had good results with 3t-3t and we know Christina did 3f-3t in the past and Agnes has talked about 3lz-3t and 2a-3t for the coming season so that could make a big difference).

 

[mskater93]

Then Hicks should be in this discussion as well - she's the same age as Gold and her jumps are more impressive than Gao and Zawadski...she has to prove herself this fall, though

 

[kalle]

There are 2 frontrunners for the 3rd spot IMO: Gao and Zawadzki. I'd maybe have Gao a little ahead of Zawadzki at this point but I'd have them both significantly ahead of Czisny and Nagasu. Jumps are too important under COP and between Alissa never having strong/consistent jumps or difficult combos and now coming off 2 hip injuries, and Mirai with her chronic URs, I think it's pretty clear that Gao and Zawadzki are ahead in the picking order, and why they are ahead. I almost think skaters like Wang or Edmunds maybe have chances as good as Nagasu or Czisny to make the 3rd spot honestly, they can both do 3lz-3t with some consistency which Alissa and Mirai have never been able to do (Christina and Agnes don't do it either, but they have both had good results with 3t-3t and we know Christina did 3f-3t in the past and Agnes has talked about 3lz-3t and 2a-3t for the coming season so that could make a big difference).[/QUOA

As far as I know, Mirai tried a 3T/3T at every main competition this season and it got better at each of them.I also think I read somewhere that she was working on a 3F/3T at Nationals practices so maybe she will try to "upgrade" her LP as well..

 

[chuckm]

Don't have much hope for Mirai landing 3/3s. She URs her triples even when they are not in combination, so I could see her doing 3F<+3T<. That wouldn't help her case at all.

 

[drivingmissdaisy]

As far as I know, Mirai tried a 3T/3T at every main competition this season and it got better at each of them.I also think I read somewhere that she was working on a 3F/3T at Nationals practices so maybe she will try to "upgrade" her LP as well..

If I were her coach, I'd focus on getting her to land 6 clean triples in the LP and abandoning the 3/3 altogether. A clean short and a clean long would have gotten Mirai on the world team every year, and will easily get her the 3rd spot next year. If she makes the team, then she can decide to throw in the 3/3.

 

[ForeverFish]

Mirai hasn't gone a single competition this season without at least 3 URs in the FS. Her 2A-3T is the worst offender, often receiving <<. In general, she struggles to land clean triples in combination. I don't see how she could possibly get a 3F-3T fully rotated when even her 3T-3T is hit-or-miss. She's far behind Zawadzki, Gao, Wagner, Gold, and Hicks in terms of jumping technique, and it may cost her a spot on the Olympic team.

 

[ForeverFish]

If I were her coach, I'd focus on getting her to land 6 clean triples in the LP and abandoning the 3/3 altogether. A clean short and a clean long would have gotten Mirai on the world team every year, and will easily get her the 3rd spot next year. If she makes the team, then she can decide to throw in the 3/3.

The problem is much larger than her inconsistent 3-3, though. She simply cannot rotate most triples in combination. Just look at her free skates of the past season:

2012 CoC: 3Lz<, 2A+3T<<, 3F<, 3F<+2T+2Lo<, 3Lo+2T, 3Lo<<
2012 NHK: 3Lz, 2A+3T, 3F, 3F+2T+2T<, 3Lo<+2T<, 3Lo<
2013 Nationals: 3Lz, 2A+3T<, 3F<, 3F<+2T+2T<, 3Lo+2T, 3Lo<<

So, her clean triples/total triples attempted:

3Lz: 2/3
3F: 1/3
3Lo: 0/3
2A+3T: 1/3
3F+2T+2T: 0/2
3F+2T+2Lo: 0/1
3Lo+2T: 2/3

That's a frightening trend. Landing six clean triples in the FS will be nigh on a miracle.

 

[MoonlightSkater]

If I were her coach, I'd focus on getting her to land 6 clean triples in the LP and abandoning the 3/3 altogether. A clean short and a clean long would have gotten Mirai on the world team every year, and will easily get her the 3rd spot next year. If she makes the team, then she can decide to throw in the 3/3.

If she wants to add the 3/3 at the end of the season if she makes the team, then she'll want it in her other competitions. She won't want to throw something entirely new into the mix and then fall on it for lack of competition experience with that skill. Additionally, a triple-triple requires more effort to rotate the second jump. It makes sense to me that that might help her learn to rotate the other jumps in her program as well by aiding with physical and mental conditioning and by causing her to have to focus on the rotation.

 

[drivingmissdaisy]

That's a frightening trend. Landing six clean triples in the FS will be nigh on a miracle.

I agree. But I see her practicing 3F/3T at Nationals and think her time could be better spent practicing solo triples. A bad 3/3 requires more energy expenditure and results in fewer overall points that a well-executed 3/2. Look what Ashley has accomplished with attempting 6 triple LPs. I think we all generally agree that Mirai is as good as Ashley artistically, so there is no reason for her to be finishing 7th at Nationals.

 

[Icey]

Alissa changed her name to Mirai. That is going to be so confusing.

 

[MoonlightSkater]

I agree. But I see her practicing 3F/3T at Nationals and think her time could be better spent practicing solo triples. A bad 3/3 requires more energy expenditure and results in fewer overall points that a well-executed 3/2. Look what Ashley has accomplished with attempting 6 triple LPs. I think we all generally agree that Mirai is as good as Ashley artistically, so there is no reason for her to be finishing 7th at Nationals.

No reason except she was very ill and didn't have the stamina.

I'm sure she's perfectly capable of landing all her triples fully rotated in practice, and her triple-triples. I am guessing that with her the problem probably lies in rotating them in the more draining context of a program. I wonder what type of conditioning and how many run-throughs she trains. Unfortunately the illness at nationals made it pretty much impossible to guage how much her fitness improved through the season.

(Edit to add: Icey- I'm just going with the flow of the posts where I find them, because that's how conversations normally work. I do wish Alyssa great success with the terribly difficult comeback she's attempting.)

 

[ForeverFish]

I agree. But I see her practicing 3F/3T at Nationals and think her time could be better spent practicing solo triples. A bad 3/3 requires more energy expenditure and results in fewer overall points that a well-executed 3/2. Look what Ashley has accomplished with attempting 6 triple LPs. I think we all generally agree that Mirai is as good as Ashley artistically, so there is no reason for her to be finishing 7th at Nationals.

Mirai is a phenomenal artist, but that will count for little if she can't get consistent triples in combination. She needs to drop the 3Lo and 2A-3T (not worth the lost points) and either ditch or fix the 3-2-2, which wouldn't leave her with much in the realm of technical difficulty except for the 3Lo-2T. Yes, her spins are still great, but those only make up a tiny proportion of TES. Not even Yuna-esque artistry could compensate for the fact that Mirai will have less challenging jumps than some juniors, like Edmunds. Gao and Zawadzki, who can both land 80-90% of their 3-3 attempts, will skate all over Mirai at Nationals.

 

[b-man]

Don't have much hope for Mirai landing 3/3s. She URs her triples even when they are not in combination, so I could see her doing 3F<+3T<. That wouldn't help her case at all.

Everyone here says she can't land a 3-3. The protocols I am looking at says she landed a 3T-3T in Omaha. It was ratified with no UR and plus GOE. So she can and did land a 3-3.