Senior Ladies SP

[Jammers]

What is the problem if Poilina outskates Mirai and finishes 3rd behind Gracie and Ashley? The 3rd place skater at Hationals usually isn't going to medal at the Olympics anyway. Ashley and Gracie go onto Worlds and secure the 3rd spot again and Polina gets some experience. I think it's a win win situation.

 

[MK's Winter]

Ashley will be on the podium even if it is 3rd. She skates her best when she is behind. Marai always does well in the short and than bombs in the long and she does not hold that big a point edge. My predictions are: Gracie-gold, Polina Silver and Ashley Bronze. Why would they not send those 3 to the Olympics? Gracie and Polina are the future of US skating and Ashley has earned it. Problem that I have seen in the past is that so many younger talented skates always got left at home and never gained that international experience.

I agree about Ashley, however Mirai showed a Rostelecom Cup not to count her out.

 

[pangtongfan]

I am pretty sure even if Ashley somehow finishes outside the top 3 she will be named to the team and whoever finishes 3rd (unless it is Gold) will be bumped automatically.

 

[R.D.]

I am pretty sure even if Ashley somehow finishes outside the top 3 she will be named to the team and whoever finishes 3rd (unless it is Gold) will be bumped automatically.

Not convinced that will happen. Anyway, Wagner WILL find a way to get into the top 3, count on it. A win isn't even out of the question (this requires Wagner to bring her A game + Gold to make major mistakes as Gold has an 8-point buffer)

 

[Myla]

I really want to see Ashley Wagner in the Olympics.. and it's hard to think that if she doesnt finish top 3 she wont be named to the team.... Although I also remember about Nationals 2010, when Sasha wasnt chosen even if she was one of the few Americans who had a chance to medal at olympics. At the time, I didnt see Flatt and Mirai medalling at olympics, and in fact it didnt happen (neither olympics, nor Worlds). I think this time, USFSA may think differently, and Gracie, Polina and Ashley are the ones who have the chance of doing so well at both major competitions and keeping the 3 spots for USA. Gold and Wagner were responsible for bringing them back and they have showed they can handle the pressure really well. But let's see what is going to happen tomorrow.

By the way, will we have live coverage from internet outside the US?

 

[Blondie12]

I agree with you that the 3rd US lady isn't going to contend. In fact, even the top US lady is going to have to get lucky to be on the podium at the Olympics. I don't think comparing Sasha Cohen in '02 and Polina in '14 makes sense. In 2002 the US had the strongest team in the world. All three of those ladies could've landed on the podium in Salt Lake and, as it was, they all placed in the top 4. The USFSA didn't send anyone in a developmental capacity- they sent three ladies who could win medals. IMO, Polina is way less polished now than Sasha was in '02. Her choreography is seriously lacking as is her PE and IN. She has good jumps and spins and a bit of sass but that's about it. And I don't know what you mean about her having good TR- she telegraphs her jumps from a mile away. No way she places in the top 10 if she goes to Sochi. Sending her now would be much more like sending Meissner and Emily Hughes in '06- skaters who are young, undeveloped, and have potential in the future, but are NOT serious medal threats.

I do think you hit the nail on the head with Gao. I finally saw her program and it was beautiful until the footwork sequence. For the life of me I don't understand why her marks for CH, PE and IN are below Gracie's. Hope she comes back in the long!

I think the team will be Gold, Wagner, and Gao. I have a sense that Edmunds will mess up. I also don't think Gracie will skate a clean LP, but her lead (gosh that score was too high) might keep her in first place. I think the judges won't be nearly as forgiving of Mirai's URs in the LP as they were last night.

I disagree that the 3rd spot won't contend. I think Mirai could, if others have faults and she skates clean without UR, she could sneak in for a bronze, or at least make a solid top 5-10 placement. Polina on the other hand would be going simply for the experience, her programs are too juniorish and she will be hammered on PCS at the Olympics. Maybe a top 10
Placement if others falter but no chance at all for a medal. Mirai, even though chance may be very small, at least has some chance if there is a splatfest and she holds herself together. If she performs Saturday night she proves that she can get it together when it counts. We will see.

 

[emma]

Not convinced that will happen. Anyway, Wagner WILL find a way to get into the top 3, count on it. A win isn't even out of the question (this requires Wagner to bring her A game + Gold to make major mistakes as Gold has an 8-point buffer)

I agree with RD ...Ashley has to podium; highly, highly unlikely the US will name anyone off the podium to the team. At the same time, highly, highly likely that Ashley will find and fight here way to that top three. It was interesting to me to watch her; she seemed tight skating, especially at the opening triple triple attempt (that was triple double and icky); and although she fought for it, there was still a tightness throughout and the double axel was especially emblematic of the fight. Yet, in the kiss and cry, her eyes sort of burned with - ok, 'crap', not great but i got this; I can do this - you know, confidence.

Compare this to Adam - he looked nervous and tense; and then sullen and like 'it's over' sadness in the kiss and cry. Anyway, my long way of just really agreeing with RD - ashley has fight and I expect she will bring it; I also expect she will try to be A+ (will she be, I don't know, but the point is, she doesn't look like she is just tryng to get a medal and team spot, she looks like she wants to win, period).

 

[Blondie12]

I agree with RD ...Ashley has to podium; highly, highly unlikely the US will name anyone off the podium to the team. At the same time, highly, highly likely that Ashley will find and fight here way to that top three. It was interesting to me to watch her; she seemed tight skating, especially at the opening triple triple attempt (that was triple double and icky); and although she fought for it, there was still a tightness throughout and the double axel was especially emblematic of the fight. Yet, in the kiss and cry, her eyes sort of burned with - ok, 'crap', not great but i got this; I can do this - you know, confidence.

Compare this to Adam - he looked nervous and tense; and then sullen and like 'it's over' sadness in the kiss and cry. Anyway, my long way of just really agreeing with RD - ashley has fight and I expect she will bring it; I also expect she will try to be A+ (will she be, I don't know, but the point is, she doesn't look like she is just tryng to get a medal and team spot, she looks like she wants to win, period).

They can always hold ashley over Polina on PCS. Unless Ashley totally bombs that is. I think Ashley is skating first so by the time Polina goes they will know what is needed to get her above Ashley. No one would bat an eye if Polina has a clean program, but much lower PCS than Ashley, giving Ashley the lead over her. Same w Mirai, but with Mirai it is a little more difficult to hold her down too much on PCS. Since this is Polina's first major senior competition, there is no real benchmark for her PCS so they can manipulate that all they want to get her on the team or to keep her off.

 

[caseyl23]

The big fear is that Gracie wins and the world thinks well obviously neither girl is that solid or consistent to be a top contender.

Let's face it – there is only one skater who has been really consistent over the course of the past couple Olympic cycles – Yu-Na Kim. Even Mao Asada's had her ups and downs since she came onto the senior scene, although she's probably Yu-Na's biggest competition. At this point, I could imagine any of Ashley Wagner, Gracie Gold, Carolina Kostner, Adelina Sotnikova, Julia Lipnitskaya, Akiko Suzuki or Kanako Murakami skating well enough for bronze. It's going to depend on who skates her best on the two nights of the ladies competition in Sochi. Actually (assuming she qualifies) Ashley's probably got a leg up over most of the others because even though she hasn't won a world medal, she's been one of the most consistent ladies out there. Accomplishment-wise, she's on a similar level with Julia internationally, but Julia's a very unproven skater right now. Europeans will be her first major senior event, and it's hard to know what to really expect from any skater until he/she experiences a senior Olympics/World Championships. Carolina is probably the one all them will be chasing for bronze, but she's the only proven skater with a noticeably better track record than Ashley.

 

[hippomoomin]

Polina should be sent to Sochi if she finishes 2nd. It would be very tricky if Polina 3rd and Mirai 4th, suppose Gracie & Ashley 1st and 2nd.

I do think the best days of Mirai are gone. She is doing an amazing job considering how much weight she gained over the past few years, and other skaters gained the same amount are out of contention. But I don't think she is going to get rid of her ur problem. Polina is the future, as long as she does not grow too tall.

 

[Icey]

Ashley will be on the podium even if it is 3rd. She skates her best when she is behind. Marai always does well in the short and than bombs in the long and she does not hold that big a point edge. My predictions are: Gracie-gold, Polina Silver and Ashley Bronze. Why would they not send those 3 to the Olympics? Gracie and Polina are the future of US skating and Ashley has earned it. Problem that I have seen in the past is that so many younger talented skates always got left at home and never gained that international experience.

In reference to your "always" statement about Mirai, I don't remember Mirai bombing in the long at Vancouver or the nationals she won or. Ashley looks, all of a sudden, dated as far as the technical side goes in comparison to the other skaters. Waiting until an Olympic year to add a 3/3 was not the wisest strategy. She is definitely getting left in the proverbial dust. For me she has lost that bravado, that throwing caution to the wind, that boldness she demonstrated in her skating when she first started making a name for herself. I expect Polina, who has 2 3/3's planned for her long, to the be the surprise winner of this event.

 

[Skater Boy]

I agree with RD ...Ashley has to podium; highly, highly unlikely the US will name anyone off the podium to the team. At the same time, highly, highly likely that Ashley will find and fight here way to that top three. It was interesting to me to watch her; she seemed tight skating, especially at the opening triple triple attempt (that was triple double and icky); and although she fought for it, there was still a tightness throughout and the double axel was especially emblematic of the fight. Yet, in the kiss and cry, her eyes sort of burned with - ok, 'crap', not great but i got this; I can do this - you know, confidence.

Compare this to Adam - he looked nervous and tense; and then sullen and like 'it's over' sadness in the kiss and cry. Anyway, my long way of just really agreeing with RD - ashley has fight and I expect she will bring it; I also expect she will try to be A+ (will she be, I don't know, but the point is, she doesn't look like she is just tryng to get a medal and team spot, she looks like she wants to win, period).

Of course Ashley is close enough to podium too unlike Adam who doesn't have much of a chance at all.

 

[Skater Boy]

In reference to your "always" statement about Mirai, I don't remember Mirai bombing in the long at Vancouver or the nationals she won or. Ashley looks, all of a sudden, dated as far as the technical side goes in comparison to the other skaters. Waiting until an Olympic year to add a 3/3 was not the wisest strategy. She is definitely getting left in the proverbial dust. For me she has lost that bravado, that throwing caution to the wind, that boldness she demonstrated in her skating when she first started making a name for herself. I expect Polina, who has 2 3/3's planned for her long, to the be the surprise winner of this event.

I think the judges would hold up gold probably to win rather than Polina just to give the Us a chance at an olympic medal as they havent' won a medal now for two olympics - not a huge deal but this is the USA and the ladies skating title is a marquee at the olympics and a bonanza to the winner if she is American usually.

 

[Nater]

I think Gold is better than Suzuki and Kostner. If Gracie can skate lights out tomorrow and at the Olympics, she can win bronze.

If Gold can hit both programs I see very little reason or room to score her below Kostner or Suzuki. Technically she is way superior to both of them. Much better jumps and spins. They would need a miracle PCS boost to beat her.

And to be honest. I'm interested if Kim Yuna will be fairly scored in PCS in Sochi. Hers scores at Korean Nationals were an insult to the sport.

 

[WeakAnkles]

Let's face it – there is only one skater who has been really consistent over the course of the past couple Olympic cycles – Yu-Na Kim. Even Mao Asada's had her ups and downs since she came onto the senior scene, although she's probably Yu-Na's biggest competition. At this point, I could imagine any of Ashley Wagner, Gracie Gold, Carolina Kostner, Adelina Sotnikova, Julia Lipnitskaya, Akiko Suzuki or Kanako Murakami skating well enough for bronze. It's going to depend on who skates her best on the two nights of the ladies competition in Sochi. Actually (assuming she qualifies) Ashley's probably got a leg up over most of the others because even though she hasn't won a world medal, she's been one of the most consistent ladies out there. Accomplishment-wise, she's on a similar level with Julia internationally, but Julia's a very unproven skater right now. Europeans will be her first major senior event, and it's hard to know what to really expect from any skater until he/she experiences a senior Olympics/World Championships. Carolina is probably the one all them will be chasing for bronze, but she's the only proven skater with a noticeably better track record than Ashley.

Except of course that Kostner's previous Olympic experiences have been meltdowns of epic proportions.

It's the Olympics. Surprising things happen.

 

[Nater]

As I said, Gracie's TES is justified; I have no problem with that. But what I'm saying is that Mirai should have gotten better PCS than Gracie or at least equal. So I think it would have cancelled out anyway if you account for Mirai's URs.

I do admit that probably some of my reaction to Gracie's program probably is the fact that I expected a lot more than I got. No doubt she has great ice coverage and speed and the jumps and spins are fantastic and the program itself is solid but I just felt something was missing for me. Can't really explain it.

Gracie clearly wins Mirai in Transitions, Skating Skills, Choreography and even Performance/Execution...

There is no basis for scoring Nagasu over Gold in PCS. Maybe last year, but not with what Gold put out this go-around.

Nagasu uses more crossovers, has less transitions, skates slower, has worse ice coverage, her program is not choreographed as well and was not as well-performed as Gold's. Again, your opinion is fairly baseless. Look at the criteria for PCS. Gracie's program isn't just better, but smartly constructed. This probably would have scored that high internationally, if her old one couldn't I 69+. It actually wasn't that much off.

I think Ashley gets a PCS boost and she has some of the weakest footwork (technically speaking) of the top contenders. Lots of flat turns and switching edges before turns, etc. (She has actually admitted to this in interview, which makes it even MORE noticeable to me now... :'( ). Her jumps looked pretty weak. O probably would have had her a couple points down.

Polina's score was in line with what other Juniors are scoring with similar programs on the Senior circuit, like Radionova. Not sure what the fuss is about. She had huge jumps and high difficulty, and these girls pop up with great IJS spins and decent footwork these days. The score was not that far off. I think she should go to set her up for the future off she skates well in the free skate...

Gracie's Lutz was one of the biggest I've ever seen.

People calling U.S. Nationals the most inflated must have missed Japanese Nationals or not seen what Yuna Kim scored at her Nationals in the SP (80+). Seriously...

 

[YunaBliss]

If Gold can hit both programs I see very little reason or room to score her below Kostner or Suzuki. Technically she is way superior to both of them. Much better jumps and spins. They would need a miracle PCS boost to beat her.

And to be honest. I'm interested if Kim Yuna will be fairly scored in PCS in Sochi. Hers scores at Korean Nationals were an insult to the sport.

Suzuki got almost 73 PCS last month and Kostner got 76 PCS in Italy last year. And Yuna getting 77 PCS in her final home performance is "an insult to the sport"?

Anyway, I don't want to hijack the thread, which is about US Nationals. Looking forward to Ladies LP tomorrow!!!

 

[Nater]

Suzuki got almost 73 PCS last month and Kostner got 76 PCS in Italy last year. And Yuna getting 77 PCS in her final home performance is "an insult to the sport"?

Anyway, I don't want to hijack the thread, which is about US Nationals. Looking forward to Ladies LP tomorrow!!!

Read my other post where I mentioned JPN Nationals.

Kim's scores are often padded in GOE and PCS. Younger skaters are often (unfairly) held down via PCS scoring. PM me if you want to discuss, but please be aware of the criteria and how GOE and PCS is scored if you do.

Time is money.

 

[icellist]

Gracie clearly wins Mirai in Transitions, Skating Skills, Choreography and even Performance/Execution...

There is no basis for scoring Nagasu over Gold in PCS. Maybe last year, but not with what Gold put out this go-around.

Nagasu uses more crossovers, has less transitions, skates slower, has worse ice coverage, her program is not choreographed as well and was not as well-performed as Gold's. Again, your opinion is fairly baseless. Look at the criteria for PCS. Gracie's program isn't just better, but smartly constructed. This probably would have scored that high internationally, if her old one couldn't I 69+. It actually wasn't that much off.

Puh-lease. The nationals judges are being way way way too lenient on Gracie in terms of PCS. To me, Gold's SP was more element to element. Nagasu's vamped up SP had more transitions. Mirai is also less tense in the step sequence. Tell me, where are all the transitions in Gracie's SP? Her FS is fine transition wise but makes no sense choreographically, what is she trying to be from the ballet: the beauty or the witch? The judges are definitely propping Gracie up leading into the Olympics but an international panel would've given Nagasu a higher score and Gold a lower one.

 

[Nater]

Puh-lease. The nationals judges are being way way way too lenient on Gracie in terms of PCS. To me, Gold's SP was more element to element. Nagasu's vamped up SP had more transitions. Mirai is also less tense in the step sequence. Tell me, where are all the transitions in Gracie's SP? Her FS is fine transition wise but makes no sense choreographically, what is she trying to be from the ballet: the beauty or the witch? The judges are definitely propping Gracie up leading into the Olympics but an international panel would've given Nagasu a higher score and Gold a lower one.

Do you know what a transition is? Did we watch the same programs?

Transitions are things like the bracket into her double axel. The chores out of her 3/3 and 3 loop. The fact that she uses more skating element moving around the rink. She has more choreography in her program and transitions can also be choreo in nature (they aren't limited to brackets, counters, etc. ). The quality of Golds transitions are also better deeper edges, done at a higher speed more complex (body positions, etc.) and certainly more varied.

Skating skills goes to Gold easily. Choreography I'd give to Gold. Her program was simply better.

I Think she performed better, but that part is only opinion so useless... There is criteria for judging PCS, and ones opinion isn't part of it.

This thread is about the SP. Don't get ahead of yourself.