How many spots will each country earn for next year's World Championships?
Men:
Japan will retain 3 spots, easily.
Czech Republic, Spain and USA will retain 2 spots. (Brown and Aaron likely would have made it 3 spots for USA.)
China, Germany and Russia will move up from 1 to 2 spots (Go Yan, Liebers, Kovtun!)
Canada, France and Kazakhstan will drop down to 1 spot. (Joubert gone means France's chances for 2 spots are also gone. Reynolds needs to place in the top 12 to get Canada to 2 spots; in the unlikely event that neither Balde or Nguyen qualifies for the free, Reynolds needs to place in the top 10.)
Ladies:
Japan and USA will retain 3 spots, easily.
Italy and Russia will move up to 3 spots. (Russia, easily; Italy, just barely.)
China will retain 2 spots.
Canada and South Korea will drop down to 1 spot. (The two South Korean girls will combine for just over 28 points. As with Reynolds, Osmond needs to place in the top 12 to get Canada to 2 spots; in the unlikely event that Daleman doesn't qualify for the free, Osmond needs to place in the top 10.)
Pairs:
Canada and Russia will retain 3 spots, easily.
China will move up to 3 spots, easily.
France, Germany, Italy and USA will retain 2 spots. (No big surprises here.)
Dance:
Canada and Russia will retain 3 spots. (Russia, easily; Canada, just barely.)
France, Germany and Italy will retain 2 spots.
USA will drop down to 2 spots. (C&B and S&S will combine for just over 13 points.)
Great Britain will move up from 1 to 2 spots.
Last year, I had a couple of major misses with these predictions, forecasting only 2 spots for the American ladies and 3 spots for the Russian ladies, when in fact the opposite happened. (Imagine what US and Russian nationals, not to mention the 2014 Olympics, might have looked like had this occurred!) Will be interesting to see how things go down at this Worlds.
Men:
Japan will retain 3 spots, easily.
Czech Republic, Spain and USA will retain 2 spots. (Brown and Aaron likely would have made it 3 spots for USA.)
China, Germany and Russia will move up from 1 to 2 spots (Go Yan, Liebers, Kovtun!)
Canada, France and Kazakhstan will drop down to 1 spot. (Joubert gone means France's chances for 2 spots are also gone. Reynolds needs to place in the top 12 to get Canada to 2 spots; in the unlikely event that neither Balde or Nguyen qualifies for the free, Reynolds needs to place in the top 10.)
Ladies:
Japan and USA will retain 3 spots, easily.
Italy and Russia will move up to 3 spots. (Russia, easily; Italy, just barely.)
China will retain 2 spots.
Canada and South Korea will drop down to 1 spot. (The two South Korean girls will combine for just over 28 points. As with Reynolds, Osmond needs to place in the top 12 to get Canada to 2 spots; in the unlikely event that Daleman doesn't qualify for the free, Osmond needs to place in the top 10.)
Pairs:
Canada and Russia will retain 3 spots, easily.
China will move up to 3 spots, easily.
France, Germany, Italy and USA will retain 2 spots. (No big surprises here.)
Dance:
Canada and Russia will retain 3 spots. (Russia, easily; Canada, just barely.)
France, Germany and Italy will retain 2 spots.
USA will drop down to 2 spots. (C&B and S&S will combine for just over 13 points.)
Great Britain will move up from 1 to 2 spots.
Last year, I had a couple of major misses with these predictions, forecasting only 2 spots for the American ladies and 3 spots for the Russian ladies, when in fact the opposite happened. (Imagine what US and Russian nationals, not to mention the 2014 Olympics, might have looked like had this occurred!) Will be interesting to see how things go down at this Worlds.